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Stocks - I’m out!


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2020 Jun 18, 9:57am   9,770 views  165 comments

by Shaman   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

Bad shit coming down the pipe. Get ready for Great Depression Part II.
Those of you who know me a bit from my history know that I don’t pull this trigger lightly. I didn’t fall for all the bear schemes in the last five years. I’ve been a bullish investor for the past 10 years.

The last time I did this (everything to bonds) was in December of 2007.

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41   WookieMan   2020 Jul 9, 9:10am  

Shaman says
I gave you all plenty of warning.
Now, here comes the Depression.

Dow is still almost at 26k as I type this. Did I miss something newsworthy? Not being a dick, I just still don't see a depression coming besides a war breaking out at this point. Almost everyone has the same or more money to spend now than they did 5 months ago. They're going to spend it. Certain industries will be fucked though for sure. Cruise lines and commercial real estate are top of mind.
42   WookieMan   2020 Jul 9, 9:12am  

WookieMan says
Certain industries will be fucked though for sure.

Big cities are fucked too. Their reliance on consumption taxes is getting thrown back in their faces.
43   Shaman   2020 Jul 9, 9:18am  

1)lockdowns coming back in some states
2)businesses continue to fold
3)unemployment increasing not decreasing
4)insane orders from governors creating chaos
5)25-30% of renters not paying and haven’t been paying
6)40% of businesses not paying rent
7)housing dipping down (7% so far)
8) banks were propped up by stimulus but beginning to falter as mortgage delinquencies rise dramatically
9)no stimulus on horizon, Congress still AWOL
10)shipping traffic way down Due to lack of demand
11)education mafia trying to get paid without serving the community
12)second race riots on horizon
13) federal $600 unemployment runs out in two weeks.
14)states out of money and borrowing to sustain spending.
44   WookieMan   2020 Jul 9, 9:44am  

Shaman says
5)25-30% of renters not paying and haven’t been paying

Shaman says
6)40% of businesses not paying rent

Shaman says
10)shipping traffic way down Due to lack of demand

Shaman says
7)housing dipping down (7% so far)

I'm not sure where you're getting this info, but I've yet to see any of the quoted stuff happening around me. You have any links? My SIL is the only one I know not working and she lives with MIL. Everyone has been busier than usual to be honest. My primary network is in the line of work for real estate and construction (housing, infrastructure, municipal engineering, etc). My one buddy is in textile marketing (hats, shirts, etc) and he's as busy as can be. Another does office IP phone systems and he's working more hours than ever.

I'm very anecdotal in my observations and making decision about how things are going. I live along a busy train line (BNSF) and unless the amount of cars are less, the frequency hasn't changed. Corp. jets at the local airport. During 2008 that was one of the first things to disappear. No closed down restaurants. If you can't pay the rent, you're not buying product to cook. Lots of help wanted signs. My Toyota buddy tells me their sales are fine. Just a slight dip when this all first came around. They're struggling to get sales people at dealerships to handle demand because of the $600/wk.

Commercial real estate and government debt is going to be where the problem is. I just don't think it's going to be that big of a problem for now. I worry about next year, but I'd be hesitant to pull out of anything now. At least collect a dividend on a blue chip stock/fund with a safe amount of money.

I personally thought we were going to see 12-15k on the Dow at some point early on in this Covid BS (May/June). I'm not really seeing it now, but I could be wrong. It really makes no difference to me at my age though, so maybe I'm naive. We're pumping money into the market with each check. It will be worth more in 20 years and pump out dividends over that time that just get reinvested. If anything a downturn helps my family, so maybe I'm not the best person to listen to.
45   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2020 Jul 9, 10:09am  

History shows again and again
How nature points up the folly of man
Stimunculus!

46   GNL   2020 Jul 9, 10:34am  

WookieMan says
My SIL is the only one I know not working

My SIL lost high paying corporate job at Marriott HQ. BIL lost high paying IT job.
47   joshuatrio   2020 Jul 9, 10:40am  

WineHorror1 says
WookieMan says
My SIL is the only one I know not working

My SIL lost high paying corporate job at Marriott HQ. BIL lost high paying IT job.


Winehorror, where was the BIL doing IT? I'm curious as to what industry that was affected.

I've been dead busy. I'm currently working 2 full time jobs (both remote and can juggle, one ends August). My online company just had a killer month and my wife's company had her best month ever in the last 6 years in March. I wonder depends what industry we're talking. My BIL is a realtor and says he's still selling homes.

I don't know anyone unemployed from this, but I do know a few in the medical industry who's hours have been cut severely.
48   WookieMan   2020 Jul 9, 10:51am  

WineHorror1 says
WookieMan says
My SIL is the only one I know not working

My SIL lost high paying corporate job at Marriott HQ. BIL lost high paying IT job.
\
High paying is a relative term currently though. You get your usual unemployment benefits which is not full pay, but still a decent amount. Then plus the $2,500ish a month. They may not have received the one time stimulus I suppose, but if you're at that level of income, you didn't need it.

I'm not saying people aren't losing jobs. But in rare cases do you make less being unemployed until the end of this month when you factor in the median family income is something like $60k. And if you lose a truly high paying job you should be able to handle it. You were paid the big bucks in most cases because of your skill. Go get another job or collect a lower UE check and figure it out.

I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just simply stating that it's not that bad here in IL of all places. I think coastal areas, if that's where you are, are getting hit much harder because of the high COL. When your $150k job goes away and you have a $600k mortgage, I get it's probably going to get tight. Hence why you don't live in those areas and make $150k somewhere else with a $200k mortgage. And then spend $10-20k per year to travel to those places and enjoy them. Then bank the rest. I love CA, but will never live there for the reasons just stated.
49   B.A.C.A.H.   2020 Jul 9, 10:59am  

You guys crack me up.

It was about a year a half after the fall 1929 stock market collapse before folks began to realize they were living in something worse than what we now call a "recession".

Party On, Hipsters.
50   WookieMan   2020 Jul 9, 11:07am  

WookieMan says
I worry about next year


B.A.C.A.H. says
It was about a year a half after the fall 1929 stock market collapse before folks began to realize they were living in something worse than what we now call a "recession".


That's why I made the above comment. Consumption tax states and municipalities (sales tax, amusement, etc.) are going to be hurting. How they're dealt with is going to be interesting. Outside of that, our economy has a lot of bend to it without breaking due to monetary policy. I've yet to see any fatigue in the bending is all I'm saying. September is going to be an interesting month when we see the fall out of the $600/wk dropping off the balance sheets of business revenue.
51   GNL   2020 Jul 9, 11:11am  

joshuatrio says
Winehorror, where was the BIL doing IT? I'm curious as to what industry that was affected.

Oracle
52   Blue   2020 Jul 9, 11:14am  

WineHorror1 says
joshuatrio says
Winehorror, where was the BIL doing IT? I'm curious as to what industry that was affected.

Oracle


He can try at communication sw/hw co. they are still hiring.
53   GNL   2020 Jul 9, 11:16am  

Blue says
He can try at communication sw/hw co. they are still hiring.

What company is that?
54   Blue   2020 Jul 9, 12:13pm  

WineHorror1 says
Blue says
He can try at communication sw/hw co. they are still hiring.

What company is that?

Any co. working on video conferencing sw products or hw co. that supply gear. There is a great demand. I'd try at cloud or data center hosting co. Try at Cisco, marvell and competitors. Amazon is hiring a lot, also Facebook.
55   Patrick   2020 Jul 9, 12:24pm  

I can see that a rational analysis would have called for the stock market to fall, and still seems plausible.

But "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" as they say.
56   WookieMan   2020 Jul 9, 12:54pm  

Patrick says
I can see that a rational analysis would have called for the stock market to fall, and still seems plausible.

It's rational, but in normal cost areas, things are doing okay at worst all things considered. I'm sure there's more doom and gloom out in CA with the higher incomes and higher COL. I'd guess 7 in 10 people laid off in the midwest and south are making more money than they were employed in the fields hardest hit. Well maybe not oil, but that's one of the few.

August will be the month to watch going into September. Once that $600/wk dries up, people are going to want their jobs back and to open back up. If that doesn't happen, expect unrest from the commoners that has nothing to do with skin color for once. People want their money, even if it involves working for it.

If we hit say August 15th and states are still trying to lock back down, then we're in territory that gets scary. People can't work with kids at home. A month or two was one thing, but losing the $600/wk and having to take care of kids all day is a big deal. It would require another stimulus round or we're forced to completely open back up and deal with the consequences.
57   AD   2020 Jul 9, 12:59pm  

.

Here is how I came across Patrick.net: https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/story?id=3731415&page=1

.
58   AD   2020 Jul 9, 1:03pm  

WookieMan says
If we hit say August 15th and states are still trying to lock back down


They are trying to further sink the economy so that even a slight improvement will make President Biden (and his unelectable Vice President) look brilliant and effective.

.
59   WookieMan   2020 Jul 9, 1:20pm  

ad says
WookieMan says
If we hit say August 15th and states are still trying to lock back down


They are trying to further sink the economy so that even a slight improvement will make President Biden (and his unelectable Vice President) look brilliant and effective.

.

Biden won't be elected though. There were vocal people I knew for Hillary in 2016. All I hear is crickets for Biden right now. Most intelligent people understand that a virus has nothing to do with Trump.

Notice that even the left here don't even stick up for Biden. The Democrats are so divided within their own party that turnout is going to be a problem outside of CA, NY, IL, etc. We're under 4 months from an election against what the left deems to be Hitler. I'm in a purple county that should be important to Biden as I'm not certain IL can't be flipped in all seriousness. I've yet to see a single Biden sign. Hell, I haven't even seen one yet in the midwest that includes two trips up to WI. A super important state for Biden.

In '08 all I saw was Obama stickers, flags and graphics everywhere. Rural and urban. The Democrats don't believe in Biden and I'm still convinced he won't make it to the convention or election day.
60   clambo   2020 Jul 9, 1:38pm  

The stock market is largely influenced by interest rates.

Evidently people think something else matters as much.

Some guys have new cash to invest; they are in the Philippines, Mexico, Singapore, China, etc.

They are going to invest it, not buy sucker CDs.
So, is it bonds or stocks?
Their decision is based on interest rates.

It's not complicated, but it is not interesting.
I just made $ with my Roku stock.
My Wells Fargo stock is still a mile underwater.
Buffet said he just loved Wells.
61   B.A.C.A.H.   2020 Jul 9, 2:13pm  

clambo says
Buffet said he just loved Wells.


I've always had a problem with Banking Stocks.

Just what is it that you own?

In the upside down world of banking, loans (debt) are assets and deposits (cash) are liabilities. Go ahead and call me stupid, Hipsters. Sticks and Stones. For investing, I just can't wrap my simpleton head around it.
62   Cash   2020 Jul 9, 3:19pm  

Payback is a bitch and Fed chairman Powell is going to rain shit bombs on trump and trump's economy for all the ridicule his big mouth has dished out.
Over 9 Trillion has already been handed over to the banking/trading houses since 9/2019-3/2020, bonds bought and monetized by Powell and his buddies and the market flush with Fed money so the zombie business corporate leaches could sell their stock to retail and their bonds to the fed and be positioned and all set when the money flow is cut from the spigot... Federal Reserve, the most powerful corporations in the world and DNC are all globalist when the dots are connected and all are equal with the same goals ... Powell's moves have not been to save Trump and the markets in my opinion, but rather to save the entities I listed before the liquid runs dry and the cash is gutted.
63   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2020 Jul 9, 3:47pm  

Markets don’t seem rational right now. Or maybe news are just fake. So hard to tell what reality is.
64   clambo   2020 Jul 9, 3:52pm  

BACAH I largely own mutual funds, but I have a few stocks.

A stock which I have bought a couple of times is Apple AAPL. The last time I bought it was before the 7:1 split and I am not buying it except for the shares the dividend buys for me.

In 2017 I inherited some shares of Wells Fargo WFC, Microsoft and some others.

I sold all but Microsoft and Wells Fargo, out of laziness I kept most of the WFC shares. I also believed the Buffet hype.

I sold a little bit of the Wells Fargo and bought Ailbaba, John Deere, and Roku.
Those are doing much better than the WFC I sold to buy them.

I don’t like owning stocks so much as mutual funds, except for Apple.
65   GNL   2020 Jul 9, 4:15pm  

WookieMan says
It would require another stimulus round or we're forced to completely open back up and deal with the consequences.

OPEN BACK UP YOU SACKS OF FUCK!!!
66   BoomAndBustCycle   2020 Jul 9, 9:44pm  

Shaman says
Look, our economy was heavily based on service jobs already which is where we stashed the underclass, there to be our servants when we wished luxury and convenience. Now we have abandoned them and withdrawn to our castles to await the coming of the great vaccine and these people are left in the cold without a job and with the businesses that employed them folding by the thousand every day.
Now big corporations are frothing at the mouth to raise shareholder value by laying off white collar workers who survived the past three months working from home. Come September, they’ll have the green light. Come September, a whole fuck ton of teachers are also going to get the pink slip. And we will still be in a pandemic with media hyping the fear to the moon.
Think that will be good for the economy?
The stock market bounced back based on ONE CALCULATION! That we were going to have a V shaped recovery, and everything would be back to normal by summer or at least by Fall. As that...


Teachers are still teaching .... trump already said
Everyone is going back to school in the fall. Even CA schools are doing a hybrid schedule where teachers work full days and kids go halftime smaller classes. Not sure why that means teacher pink slips. If anything they will need more money and resources to prep things for Covid.

Just kidding.... by late September early October... schools will get shutdown with the first signs of flu season. Then the shit will truly hit the fan.
67   BayArea   2020 Jul 9, 9:53pm  

Whoever sold missed out on glorious gainZ
68   Blue   2020 Jul 10, 12:48am  

Once the election is over, virus drama will be over too.
69   B.A.C.A.H.   2020 Jul 10, 9:13am  

BayArea says
Whoever sold missed out on glorious gainZ


- said so many Hipsters in April 1930
70   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2020 Jul 10, 9:16am  

B.A.C.A.H. says
- said so many Hipsters in April 1930
Whether you like it, or not, the Fed will buy up the entire stock market if it has to, to support asset prices. It's a little more talented than the 1930's Fed, which has been attributed with causing the crash back then.
71   just_passing_through   2020 Jul 10, 9:17am  

I dunno about you guys but I opened a coinbase account yesterday. I'm going to ever so slowly start shifting $ into crypto and physical gold and silver.

This isn't just to protect from the currency debasement going on but also safe harbor from the little fucking socialists coming up.

I'm not expecting to make much profit from it. I'll continue to make other investments for that. Just planning to start taking up some small positions that will grow over time that I might thank myself for later.
72   just_passing_through   2020 Jul 10, 9:23am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says
Fed will buy up the entire stock market if it has to


It's the bond market they are concerned about but yeah... I don't believe they'll get away with printing enough to buy the entire stock market which is considerably smaller. All these buys are support in some cases but also psychological pump priming in the hopes that you and I will buy.

Did anyone hear of that deal China made with Iran a week or so ago? They have a new military/energy/currency pact. It's small now yeah, but over time it's going to start crowding out the $ and this significantly weakens any sanctions we have on Iran right now regarding swift. I think this is partly why China doesn't care much about any retaliation related to Hong Kong. Their new financial center is going to be Shanghai.

The pact includes Russia as well.
73   B.A.C.A.H.   2020 Jul 10, 9:38am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says
the Fed will buy up the entire stock market if it has to, to support asset prices


You mean like the JCB in the lost decades?
74   AD   2020 Jul 10, 9:57am  

.
just_adhom_preaching says
Did anyone hear of that deal China made with Iran a week or so ago? They have a new military/energy/currency pact. It's small now yeah, but over time it's going to start crowding out the $ and this significantly weakens any sanctions we have on Iran right now regarding swift. I think this is partly why China doesn't care much about any retaliation related to Hong Kong. Their new financial center is going to be Shanghai.



Yeah, it includes military and oil sales.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Inks-Military-Deal-With-Iran-Under-Secretive-25-Year-Plan.html

.
75   RWSGFY   2020 Jul 10, 10:20am  

just_adhom_preaching says
Did anyone hear of that deal China made with Iran a week or so ago? They have a new military/energy/currency pact. It's small now yeah, but over time it's going to start crowding out the $ and this significantly weakens any sanctions we have on Iran right now regarding swift. I think this is partly why China doesn't care much about any retaliation related to Hong Kong. Their new financial center is going to be Shanghai.


Iranian! Oil! Burse!
76   Onvacation   2020 Jul 10, 10:45am  

Newbie123 says
Look into storing your crypto on your own hard wallet. It’s basically a cold storage that nobody can touch

AKA flashdrive.
77   RWSGFY   2020 Jul 10, 10:50am  

Onvacation says
Newbie123 says
Look into storing your crypto on your own hard wallet. It’s basically a cold storage that nobody can touch

AKA flashdrive.


AKA "if it's bricked - kiss your money goodbye".
78   RWSGFY   2020 Jul 10, 10:52am  

Newbie123 says
Exposure to Bitcoin and some of the top 10 crypto’s should be part of your diverse portfolio.


But first learn how idiotic crypto really is: https://patrick.net/post/1332913/2020-06-11-someone-paid-2-6-million-in-fees-to-move-134-worth-of-crypto-and-oops
79   Patrick   2020 Jul 10, 12:19pm  

ad says
.

Here is how I came across Patrick.net: https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/story?id=3731415&page=1

.


Thanks, almost forgot about that.
80   Patrick   2020 Jul 10, 12:25pm  

clambo says
My Wells Fargo stock is still a mile underwater.
Buffet said he just loved Wells.


OK, Wells is way down probably due to all those impending mortgage defaults.

Maybe time to buy it? It depends on the exact numbers, but those seem kinda unknowable for me.

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