patrick.net

theOrangeManIsBad says

WookieMan says

Don't get the point. Data points to these safety items and laws working. The evidence (AKA DATA) does not point to masks working for THIS virus. You're comparing apples to centipedes.

The point is you do multiple things to cut down risk. If masks help contain some virus particles of a sick person who does not know they are sick, then the masks will help cut down on spread of the virus. Masks don't have to work 100% of the time to be a sensible safety device just like a seat belt doesn't have to save you 100% of the time for it to be a sensible device to use.

Why don't 5 year olds sit in the front seat if we're going to keep going back to the car/vehicle analogy? Yet seat belts work, which I won't dispute. Answer that and you'll understand why masks are useless. You kind of solved your own conversation or argument if we want to call it that.

and awaiting moderation thing is kinda annoying

theOrangeManIsBad says

We don't have lots of cases because we test too much. We test a lot, because we have lots of cases

Because you said so? Dude, come on. Back up something you say. I've posted links and graphs that you can fact check. You can't just keep saying up is up when it's clearly down.

Lol brd6. Good video.

theOrangeManIsBad says

If you decide not to take any other precautions for coronavirus, because you are wearing a mask, it might increase your odds of dying.

What are the odds of dying from Covid? Hell what are the odds of even obtaining this "killer" virus? You're advocating for a solution that "might" infect 1% of the population.

A seat belt protects almost everyone in a car, except for the 5 year old in the front seat. Wearing a mask is the 5 year old in the front seat and you don't get it. Not sure how else to explain this. A seatbelt for a tiny kid in the front seat "can" save them, but it statistically doesn't. Hence why we have laws that prevent kids from riding in the front seat. Some laws make sense, mask wearing has ZERO evidence in stopping Covid. None.

If you want to die on this hill I really don't care. You've proven nothing that masks help prevent Covid. Myself and others have shown otherwise. Balls in your court to pull up the big boy pants.

www.youtube.com/embed/ox-0NusoIAA

Those can be easily sterilized after mfg.. We used to use ethylene oxide on polylactic-polyglycolic acid bone grafts (plastic that turned to mamalian bone in ~12 weeks on average) at a company I used to work for.

theOrangeManIsBad says

a sick person who does not know they are sick

Never before have we locked down healthy people to protect the immunocompromised.

What is the criteria for ending the masquerade?

theOrangeManIsBad says

mell says

The level of testing is insane, in fact we're testing too much now,

We don't have lots of cases because we test too much. We test a lot, because we have lots of cases. Positivity rates are still too high and testing takes too long for the testing regime to effectively prevent infections in locations where most of the cases are. Some states have too many tests, and some states have way too few.

There is no such thing as not enough testing currently anywhere, we're overtesting. Extreme testing is only useful in the beginning if you can still contain it. The cat has been out of the bag since March and we should only test those with symptoms and not require covid negative tests, thisnisnt Nazi Germany. Utter bullshit, unconstitutional and useless. Oh and a money printing machine for pharma companies. Instead we should be handing out HCQ, ivermectin, quercetin, zinc and vitamin D and C to everybody like candy for prophylactic use and as soon as symptoms arise. But that doesn't make fraudci and Co any money.

theOrangeManIsBad says

Here's an easy to digest article:

🤦 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html



Mask mandate put out by CDC 4/24/2020. Most states are following up with their own recommendations by May and June.



You can post links until your fingers go numb. The actual data since mask mandates and recommendations shows masks ain't working man. At all. It shows the exact opposite. The number of cases is jumping hugely with probably 70-80% mask compliance indoors coming from a baseline of ZERO at the beginning of the pandemic. Mass gatherings still banned. Show me data of lower cases since masks recommendation came out and maybe we can get somewhere. Until that happens you're simply not right. Sorry.

The CDC graph above doesn't exist or happen if masks are even 20% effective. Anyone with a working brain knows this. States like Georgia and Tennessee have had restaurants at 50% plus capacity since early May. The bump in cases doesn't start in earnest until all the mask mandates come out.

People need to think. This is data that available to everyone. It's being spun into something else for whatever reason. Masks ain't working and no one has even remotely come close to proving otherwise. I have no interest in posting the dozens of other studies that show masks don't work when the chart above is so blatantly obvious it's almost comical. It would be a waste of time.

theOrangeManIsBad says

mell says

There is no such thing as not enough testing currently anywhere, we're overtesting.

WHO and CDC recommend lower than 10 percent positivity rate.
We have lots of states with higher than 10% https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html

That means, we are testing a lot, because we have lots of cases in those states, and it also means that we are not testing enough for the current case load. We would be testing too much if we didn't have raging spread. If you scroll down to the testing area in the following link, you will see positivity rates for US and Spain are about 10 percent. For UK, Germany, it is under 1 percent. For France, it's about 2 pe...

That has nothing to do with testing. The positivity rate is what it is and it will automatically decline with going towards herd immunity. A lower positivity rate rather points towards fraud in the US like double counting (retesting etc.). Also the US is less dense so it will take a bit longer to bring rates down but nothing you cited can be influenced by even more insane testing.

mell says

A lower positivity rate

My wife has tested negative twice now. I wonder how this is calculated in the statistics?

Onvacation says

mell says

A lower positivity rate

My wife has tested negative twice now. I wonder how this is calculated in the statistics?

I tested neg once and will have to test again after vacation. I do think n95 masks and above help, not cloth or surgical. But we test so much that we catch plenty of false positives and completely asymptomatic people so any benefit of masks is hidden by crazy levels of testing. We have tested ourselves into a frenzy and feed off the additional positive results in a feedback panic porn loop ;)

2 per million die of Covid-19




100 per million die of traffic deaths.

With crazy death rates like that why are we not outlawing cars?

theOrangeManIsBad says

The major big change was that lockdowns ended, and people increased activity.

Travel man. Mass gatherings were the "lockdown" and nothing else. And they're still "locked down" at this point. Most places have had restaurants open since late May. I've witnessed this in person in Utah, Nevada, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Kentucky and Minnesota. I've flown in a plane. Been out in public constantly. Still no rona for me. Only know of 1 person in my first level network that has obtained the cold. She followed the rules. Crossed her T's and dotted her i's. If masks work, why did she get it? You don't have an answer for that besides you wear the mask "to protect others" or some other nonsense.

Why are the cases spiking again right now with most people conforming to mask wearing? You don't have an answer. It's either we're testing more or mask don't work. If it's not one of those two, please explain?

theOrangeManIsBad says

mell says

That has nothing to do with testing.

So, you think that the US has a high positivity rate, because people keep retesting positive people? FL has a positivity rate of 17%. The woman who used to run their data analytic program quit, because she was being asked to fake the data to make it look better. FL gov is definitely not trying to make itself or Trump look bad.

I'm sure we get false positives, but Germany, France, and UK also get false positives, and their positivity rates are less than 1%.

I do agree that our case numbers / actual infected numbers are much higher now than back in April. You can see this by the case / death rate. That means we are testing much better than in the beginning. OTOH, deaths are hovering at around 1K per day, which is within a factor of 2 from where they were at the peak in NY. Mell, what do you make of the high death rate in the US?

Sorry for your friend. It's irresponsible for MDs to assume COVID when there are a myriad of possible causes. It's almost medical fraud but they get money if chalked up as Covid. If it's 3 times negative it wasn't Covid unless you want to say testing is useless because unreliable. There are blood tests done every day that detect virus in the bloodstream where it's always present. Asthma, anemia, ILD, undetected heart defects all can hit young and seemingly totally healthy people mad cause low O2. Even wearing a mask for too long can. In elementary school a kid passed out briefly while wearing a mask during the CA fires. Low O2. Think about it why do all the European countries have hardly any problems with Covid while the US claims to. The reason is simple, because we're overcounting dramatically for political reasons, by popular vote and hate way more people have a reaaon to fudge numbers to increase Covid cases and we have seen plenty of examples eclipseling the one incident in FL you mentioned. It's a serious illness for the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. For younger people the flu is more deadly.

Also look at this article :

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sfgate.com/bayarea/amp/California-flu-deaths-rise-to-74-a-huge-increase-12510722.php

"
The state tracks flu deaths only among those younger than 65, because health officials say it’s a more accurate measure of the severity of a flu season. This is in part because older people generally have weaker immune systems and their vulnerability to illnesses makes it more difficult to pinpoint the flu as the singular cause of death.
"

If you'd apply the same logic to Covid deaths would be 20% of what they're now.

mell says

feedback panic porn loop

Perfect summary of the whole situation!

theOrangeManIsBad says

We are currently at 52 deaths per 100K. There are only 3 countries that are worse than that: Peru, Italy, and Chile. We will pass Italy soon despite Italy getting hit hard early on before realizing how bad things were and despite their aging population. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Confirmed flu deaths each year are around 7-15K. Imputed flu deaths are around 50K in US. Imputed Coronavirus deaths so far have been 210K. Confirmed are 167K and counting. That's with major lockdowns and social distancing. Some people make comments based on the assumption that social distancing doesn't reduce deaths. If people went about life as normal, the death count would be much higher.

You are not listening to valid counterpoints easily refuting these numbers. We do not count ANY people over 65 as flu deaths because they often die with the flu but not solely of. If you took 65 and older out of the numbers you would have a regular flu season. Yes it is a serious illness like most respiratory viruses incl. the flu. Nothing more or less.

theOrangeManIsBad says

WookieMan says

You don't have an answer for that

Some people get coronavirus while being very careful, and some don't get it despite being reckless. Same can be said for driving or lung cancer or anything else for that matter.

That's how stochastic processes work. Most people don't understand this, but if you regularly do research and work with numbers, these things become 'common sense,' because you see it so frequently.

Again there's no scientific evidence. That's why many European countries don't recommend cloth or surgical masks. Ask yourself if there's a reason the US goes against the majority of top scientists and you will come to the conclusion it's political. Masks may make sense in narrow and poorly ventilated indoor spaces, if you want to protect yourself you need n95 at the minimum if you believe that the Chinese virus is airborne. That's all anyone knows for now, statistically speaking jack shit has been proven. There's a reason there's no flu mask on the market available cause there ain't one. Want some protection you need n95/n100, want guaranteed protection you need a full body hazmat suit.

theOrangeManIsBad says

Some people get coronavirus while being very careful, and some don't get it despite being reckless. Same can be said for driving or lung cancer or anything else for that matter.

That's how stochastic processes work. Most people don't understand this, but if you regularly do research and work with numbers, these things become 'common sense,' because you see it so frequently.

If true, wouldn't it be more effective just to quarantine the vulnerable?

Less than a thousand people less than 24 years old have died WITH covid. Virtually all of them had comorbidities or were immune compromised. Most of the deaths were from old sick people.

It's not about doing the right thing. It's about having the appearance of doing the right thing, which right now is masks.

Booger says

It's not about doing the right thing. It's about having the appearance of doing the right thing, which right now is masks.

Exactly. Demands for conformity are a hallmark of extremists.

Right now, the only extremists are on the left. No one on the right is demanding that you conform to anything.

There is an ongoing clinical trial about mask effectiveness in Denmark:

https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04337541

When they post the results, we will know.

Summary of what different countries recommend with respect to masks:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118603/

Very different recommendations.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

awaiting moderation

I do miss reading AF's unhinged comments in real time.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

The only cure for COVID is RALLY! and nuking the Post Office.

do BLM rallies/looting qualify or it is only MAGA rallies that cure corona?

theOrangeManIsBad says

The coronavirus is much deadlier than the flu

And this is where you are wrong. A bad flu year can kill 80k people WITH a "vaccine" that everyone is so excited to get. We have no vaccine and questionable therapeutic treatments for Covid and double the deaths of a "bad" flu year. It's substantially less deadly than your standard flu and probably by a long shot. Again, it's math. Look at the numbers.

And frankly if you're scared of it just put your mask on and stay home. You have no right to tell other people what to do. That ultimately is the core of the issue. The statistics show Covid is not deadly or as deadly as plenty of other ailments. You say it is deadly just because. You've yet to back it up how and why it's deadly, so you push masks with zero scientific evidence. Move the goal posts now to n-95 masks, when you were pumping all masks. You're tripping over your own shoe laces dude and blaming the kid next to you. Unbecoming.

theOrangeManIsBad says

You keep lying. Surgical masks reduce aerosolized coronavirus from positive people. P=0.02, which means 2% probability it was by chance. This link was in post #60.

Nope. You just keep ignoring the fact we have more cases with mask mandates and most everything shut down. It's indisputable. If mask were even remotely effective we'd have seen a flattening of cases and not a doubling of cases. That's not what is happening. Not even close. It's summer and any restaurant that has made it is generally feeding people outside where we already know masks are useless. We're social distancing and wearing masks and this is the result?

theOrangeManIsBad says

You're projecting your motivations onto other people, and it reveals who you are. The economy is in the shitter and people are dying. Some people ask what they can do to help fix the problem. Wearing the mask is likely to help and is pretty easy. Some people refuse to be helpful, because FREEDOM!
I'm not particularly worried about myself as a health individual under 50. But wearing a mask is an easy way to help, and I'm not a selfish douche bucket.

We are doing everything asked and cases doubled AFTER that fact and still with the social distancing message from late March and early April. If it worked even remotely, cases should be flat or down. Not happening. Has nothing to do with freedom or anything. I wear a mask indoors 100% of the time unless at home. I stay away from people and if I'm near people we try to be outside. Only one person in my family will enter a store and we wash and have hand sanitizer in the car. If myself and many other are doing all of this, why are cases doubling from a time when no one wore a mask and were on top of each other in areas, bars, concerts, etc. You keep ignoring this.

The fact is this whole deal has been manipulated and politicized. All you have to say is we're testing more, but that checks a positive box for Trump and you don't want to. There's no vaccine and limited therapeutic medicines available versus the flu that can kill 80k in a bad year. By next year we're going to look back on this and be embarrassed by the reaction. Estimates from NY are coming out that potentially 11k deaths could have been prevent by not throwing sick people in nursing homes. Those 11k people probably spread it to 60-80k people.

We got false positive tests. We have diagnosis' based on symptoms with no testing. The number of deaths attributed to Covid is 100% for sure inflated. Feel free to keep believing these lies. I choose otherwise. No motivations. In fact I'm rejecting others 100% wrong motivations and ideas on me all while still being respectful. Can't say the same for you. Glad you assumed I wasn't listening to the handlers....

theOrangeManIsBad says

WookieMan says

And this is where you are wrong. A bad flu year can kill 80k people WITH a "vaccine"

Look up infection fatality rate for flu and coronavirus. Coronavirus IFR estimates are much higher than for the flu, so if the average person gets Corona, they are much more likely to die than if they get the flu. Therefore, it is much more deadly.

A vaccine is available for the flu and if more healthy people took it, it would slow the spread and save lives. Most healthy people don't bother with the flu vaccine, because the risk to them personally is small. However, if everybody took the flu vaccine, the flu would spread more slowly, and less people would die. It's pretty simple, but most people don't bother thinking about that. Every year, loads of healthy young people get the flu and pass it on to some geezer in line at the grocery store. The healthy young person recovers just fine and...

It's not that easy. A vaccination is different from a natural recovery from the flu and has side-effects, sometimes serious. Furthermore the flu vaccine is highly inaccurate and a gamble each year until they can come up with a more general one that always works for the strain(s) of the year. There is no reason for a healthy person to get a flu shot, the body benefits from having a solid immune response and inflammation once in a while, acute inflammation is a healthy response (as opposed to chronic). If you're at high risk or very old you can protect yourself by getting the flu shot, instead of blaming others. By your logic everybody not interesting in driving a car or without drivers license should be able to mandate that all people stop driving cars to reduce their risk of killing them. That's the height of selfishness. If a disease is deadly enough the majority of people will gladly take a vaccine, as it happened with smallpox and polio. Also now that viruses are implicated in myriads of things incl. chronic disorders you want to forcefully vaccinate the whole nation against every virus strain in the world? Please. You don't have to be an anti-vaxxer, but a vaccine pusher is equally bad. Studies are clear that the enormous amount of vaccinations kids receive without break these days has consequences and side effects for them. What reason is there to vaccinate new born against hep B? Zero. Yet the hospitals will do so unless you object fiercely. Same will happen for sars cov 2 and I will not let anybody vaccinate my kid(s) against it. Once they're old enough they can decide for themselves if the want to take it or not. In fact a flu vaccine - although also mostly unnecessary - is more beneficial to a kid than a sars cov 2 vaccine would be with zero kids dying of Covid-19. I don't know a single kid who died of one of the common childhood diseases, but they are being vaccinated against all of them anyways, with the consequence that there's no natural lifelong immunity and then they forget about vaccination as adults and when there's an outbreak the disease is very serious (potentially deadly) for the adult (true for most except for whooping cough which declines in seriousness). Sometime you can use mass vaccination to try and eradicate a virus, but so far most if not all have resurfaced time and time again.

theOrangeManIsBad says

WookieMan says

You just keep ignoring the fact we have more cases with mask mandates and most everything shut down

That's a single correlation with no control and obvious flaws. It is only convincing to someone who is desperately hoping to find a cause and who is willing to ignore all of the more compelling evidence pointing in the other direction.
WookieMan says

All you have to say is we're testing more, but that checks a positive box for Trump and you don't want to.

Jesus Christ, I already wrote that. That's one of the obvious flaws that I referenced in your single correlation. You are correlating measured cases instead of actual cases, and the measured cases are now a higher percentage of actual cases. This can be inferred from the positivity and death rates. But that's not the only reason. Other reasons that ...

Most of the states with high or non-declining positivity have a significant decline in cases and deaths for a while, indicating they are about to reach or have reached herd immunity. High positivity rates is a good thing among declining cases, meaning only those really sick get tested and treated, and they become fewer and fewer.

theOrangeManIsBad says

Surgical masks

*surgical face masks*

One reason progressives should not wear mask, use hand sanitizer, or avoid infected people.

theOrangeManIsBad says

mell says

By your logic everybody not interesting in driving a car or without drivers license should be able to mandate that all people stop driving cars to reduce their risk of killing them. That's the height of selfishness.

I'm not suggesting that flu vaccine should be compulsory, and frankly hadn't considered the benefit of a real flu once in a while versus yearly vaccine. But, getting a vaccine that has very minimal risk (if that is the case) is a very minor imposition. That is not like not driving, which is a huge imposition. I would say it's more like not driving drunk, which does seem like a huge imposition to a subset of the population.

I've seen people arguing that the infection rates of 20-25% or so may be enough for herd immunity. I believe it's enough for to lower Ro below 1 when most people are social distancing. I don't think many epidemiologists think it's enough for peo...

The problem with vaccines is that the prevention of acute disease/death always sounds great and seemingly favorable, but jolting the immune system by instilling artificial immune responses, sometimes with adjuvants, may eventually have a chronic toll which is harder to quantify (aside from rare serious adverse immediate reactions), similar to shutting down the economy and those who are afraid of or cannot go to the MD for checkups/diagnostics. Longer term the shutdown likely will claim more lives and will leave many more ruined. Especially since we already have experienced max pain or near max pain from the Covid fallout and are now approaching herd immunity with falling death and infection rates. And if you adjust for the over-counting and that 80% likely could have been saved with early HCQ intervention there is zero reason for any measures as long as you have HCQ et al. ready and enough hospital beds.

mell says

enough hospital beds

You and I both know this was never of actual concern. The only area of concern was the Northeast due to self inflicted idiocy. You don’t put people with a virus around other mostly dead people. Even then we never actually saw any overload. A ship and convention center were equipped with all sorts of shit that wasn’t used.

After all that dust settles and we put masks on our cases double, but death rates plummet. Yet all people are hung up on are cases. Next it will be a vaccine and ridicule people that don’t get it because it was rushed through. This isn’t polio for fucks sake. Not even close. People need to grow up.

Brd6 says

I do miss reading AF's unhinged comments in real time.

If he would promise to stop talking about sodomizing Trump with barbed wire, OK.

I don't think he will promise that though.

Patrick says

If he would promise to stop talking about sodomizing Trump with barbed wire, OK.

I don't see anything wrong with sodomizing a politician with barbed wire (other than soiling a perfectly good roll of wire)

A video manual for proper COVID-19 mask use, no doubt @APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch would approve

www.youtube.com/embed/HWXbHQVMSwM

I have to wear masks around patients. Sometimes N95. I think the most effective thing to do is keep your hands clean and wear gloves and gowns as required. Add to that masks and I feel pretty safe around patients and they are safe around me.