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As for houses, I'm devastated. I'm all set to buy in a reasonable drop but I don't think it's coming.
I’d like to see the same data for SFH
It doesn't pencil out. My colleagues and I studied this to death about 15 or so years ago. We all came to the same conclusion. But we are engineers, not Hipsters.
The only case that will pencil out would be a Prop-13 assessment from long ago, like an inheritance or retiring and leaving the region and taking the rent for cash flow. (BTW none of the renters I've known are renting from one of those situations). But even in those Prop-13 special cases, there's an incredible amount of sunk capital tied up in the home which in most cases can be unlocked without any capital gains tax.
BayArea saysI’d like to see the same data for SFH
Me too.
I cannot fathom the arithmetic of SFH landlording in the Bay Area. I know renters who share with me what they pay. It's easy to see what the tax bill is from the real estate websites like Zillow. You can also see the sales history to see how much the owner paid.
It doesn't pencil out. My colleagues and I studied this to death about 15 or so years ago. We all came to the same conclusion. But we are engineers, not Hipsters.
The only case that will pencil out would be a Prop-13 assessment from long ago, like an inheritance or retiring and leaving the region and taking the rent for cash flow. (BTW none of the renters I've known are renting from one of those situations). But even in those Prop-13 special cases, there's an incredible amount of sunk capital tied up in the home which in most cases can be unlocked wit...
its just a speculative investment.BayArea says
landlords bet
My colleagues and I are not Hipsters. We're doofuss engineers.
I can buy a lakehouse for about $250,000 in Northern NY. If I'm never going back in to work again, I might just do that.
I can buy a lakehouse for about $250,000 in Northern NY. If I'm never going back in to work again, I might just do that.
Here I was thinking that SF real estate was simply predicated on getting money out of mainland China. Any rent received was just icing to that.
Here I was thinking that SF real estate was simply predicated on getting money out of mainland China. Any rent received was just icing to that.
I’m not particularly familiar with the source but SF looks to have the biggest YoY decline of anywhere in the country.
I’d like to see the same data for SFH because I can’t believe what I’m seeing as I’ve been house shopping the last few months.
Housing didn't do that well during the Depression - housing was a liability, because it decreased mobility to find work
but currently you can't get a Uhaul in SF without advance reservation and people are moving out left and right.
You also can't do what you could back then purchasing 10 homes just by having a pulse.
I thought that too but somehow there is a modern twist on Casey Sirin of yore called "AirBnB empires".
WookieMan saysYou also can't do what you could back then purchasing 10 homes just by having a pulse.
I thought that too but somehow there is a modern twist on Casey Sirin of yore called "AirBnB empires".
It's not that easy anymore, but people now buy property in Reno to AirBnB it out to hikers, gamblers, and skiers.
mell saysIt's not that easy anymore, but people now buy property in Reno to AirBnB it out to hikers, gamblers, and skiers.
Lot's of these "AirBnB emperors" were caught swimming nekkid when Covid-related travel restrictions put the kibosh on their cash flow.
The only case that will pencil out would be a Prop-13 assessment from long ago, like an inheritance or retiring and leaving the region and taking the rent for cash flow. (BTW none of the renters I've known are renting from one of those situations). But even in those Prop-13 special cases, there's an incredible amount of sunk capital tied up in the home which in most cases can be unlocked without any capital gains tax.
But it’s hitting San Francisco, the most expensive rental market, the hardest.
If you want his latest insights: https://loganmohtashami.com/
by LOGAN MOHTASHAMI POSTED ON AUGUST 26, 2020
Demographics Crushed The Housing Bears In 2020
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