patrick.net

With Regard To Bitcoin:

If you wanted to give some wealth to an ancestor of yours, 100 years from how - would you use a currency, stocks, property, commodities (including precious metals), or bitcoin?

I don't imagine bitcoin will even EXIST before I die. That's why I won't "invest" in it. I mined one once. Somewhere around on one of these drives but it's not worth the time to recover it.

I heard the brothers that got fucked by Zuckerberg with him stealing their code have a ton of bitcoin stored on flash drives in a safe. I wonder if they realize NVRAM memory has an estimated lifespan of 10 years?

onvacation, there are many websites discussing Bitcoins intrinsic value. Cash has provided you with a link twice. He cant force you to read.
https://kraken.docsend.com/view/ehvdmebb8gkveecj?utm_source=content+announcement&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=bitcoin+intrinsic+value&utm_content=content+link

Are you not going to answer any questions? Since when are you on vacation? Jobless, or retired?

G36 says

on vacation, something is a bit off with you

I'm not the one claiming to have just invested $29K in Bitcoin and then say G36 says

I want to learn and invest in Crypto, mainly Bitcoin.

I'm just telling you my educated opinion

G36 says

you claim you dont invest in anything

Food and entertainment!

G36 says

you make comments that make bitcoin look like a ponzi scheme

No I don't. I straight up say that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme or it might just be a money laundering device.

G36 says

you keep mentioning gold/silver.

and real estate and stocks, investments with intrinsic value.

G36 says

You also claim you are on vacation and therefore you dont need to invest in anything....Are you permanently on vacation? jobless or retired?

I already lost one job from doxxing on this site. Don't care to share much personal info.

G36 says

At this point i am not sure if i should expect any meaningful answer from you anymore.

And I don't believe that you are a crypto novice coming to patnet for advice but it is fun playing.

Onvacation says

G36 says

on vacation, something is a bit off with you

I'm not the one claiming to have just invested $29K in Bitcoin and then say G36 says

I want to learn and invest in Crypto, mainly Bitcoin.

What is off with this? People were asking for screenshots....


"I already lost one job from doxxing on this site. Don't care to share much personal info."
So you are still working.....but you are on a permanent vacation? and because you are on a vacation you invest in food/entertainment. But you spend a lot of time on your vacation to bash people who invest in Bitcoin. How many vacation days do you get? For how many months / years did you have the name "onvacation"?

richwicks says

I heard the brothers that got fucked by Zuckerberg with him stealing their code have a ton of bitcoin stored on flash drives in a safe.

Per NYTimes interview:
The Winklevosses came up with an elaborate system to store and secure their own private keys. They cut up printouts of their private keys into pieces and then distributed them in envelopes to safe deposit boxes around the country, so if one envelope were stolen the thief would not have the entire key.

G36 says

So you are still working.....but you are on a permanent vacation? and because you are on a vacation you invest in food/entertainment. But you spend a lot of time on your vacation to bash people who invest in Bitcoin. How many vacation days do you get? For how many months / years did you have the name "onvacation"?

It used to be frowned upon on this site to discuss other users. To the point that the word "you" would be automatically highlighed in red to make you think twice whether you might want to rethink the post.

Just sayin'

Eric Holder says

It used to be frowned upon on this site to discuss other users. To the point that the word "you" would be automatically highlighed in red to make you think twice whether you might want to rethink the post.

Yeah, it was ridiculous. Don't you agree, or do you think think is added to the conversation?

G36 says

But you spend a lot of time on your vacation to bash people who invest in Bitcoin.

I bash Bitcoin and I think people who invest in it are foolish because it is a gamble. There is nothing there.

Bitcoin is dependent on early adopters getting paid by later "investors". If it goes way up in price AND you sell it you will make money. If it goes way down in price and you sell it you will lose money. If you just Hold On for Dear Life (HODL) eventually your "wallet" will turn in to a flash drive with some really expensive bits that nobody wants to buy.

Having stated my opinion I will admit that I could be wrong and those "coins" in your "wallet" that were created by "mining" hash tables at huge costs of energy really is digital "gold" and I am missing out.

But I don't care because I have plenty of food and entertainment!

richwicks says

Eric Holder says

It used to be frowned upon on this site to discuss other users. To the point that the word "you" would be automatically highlighed in red to make you think twice whether you might want to rethink the post.

Yeah, it was ridiculous. Don't you agree, or do you think think is added to the conversation?

It was a bit too much. Could be dealt with a heartfelt FUCK OFF instead of rigid guardrails. =))

Eric Holder says

G36 says

So you are still working.....but you are on a permanent vacation? and because you are on a vacation you invest in food/entertainment. But you spend a lot of time on your vacation to bash people who invest in Bitcoin. How many vacation days do you get? For how many months / years did you have the name "onvacation"?

It used to be frowned upon on this site to discuss other users. To the point that the word "you" would be automatically highlighed in red to make you think twice whether you might want to rethink the post.

Just sayin'

ehm, people asked me to post screenshots of my investments and i did but i cant ask how many vacation days "onvacation" gets? He wont answer the questions anyway. He tells us that his investments are in food and entertainment, yet he is so motivated to bash bitcoin and people that invest in it....whats the motiviation for it? smells like gold/silver bug to me. Nothing wrong with investing in Gold but he seems pissed and not interested in having a meaningful discussion. (he asks for intrinsic value, you send him the link, he ignores it and just asks again)

Onvacation says


Bitcoin is dependent on early adopters getting paid by later "investors". If it goes way up in price AND you sell it you will make money. If it goes way down in price and you sell it you will lose money. If you just Hold On for Dear Life (HODL) eventually your "wallet" will turn in to a flash drive with some really expensive bits that nobody wants to buy.

Having stated my opinion I will admit that I could be wrong and those "coins" in your "wallet" that were created by "mining" hash tables at huge costs of energy really is digital "gold" and I am missing out.



fair enough. I have no idea where the price for one Bitcoin will be in 1 year. I am speculating it will be much higher than what it is today. And I think the whole early adopter thing is not true. At what point in time are you still an early adopter? When you start speculating in 2016? 2014? 2019? Maybe 2020 will still be early adoption. Just look at companies like Square and Paypal. Those maybe are the early institutional investors/adopters? Nobody really knows. Obviously, as the market cap and price grows, the future gains from a % point of view probably wont be as high as they were in the early days. But you had a lot more risk in the early days too.

Crypto has no intrinsic value. It is backed by nothing real. It has very limited use in commerce if your not an international terrorist or narco kingpin. Most people that hold it plan on one day selling it to someone that will pay more for it than they did (including transaction fees). It has artificial scarcity and takes an incredible amount of electricity just to keep the network going.

Bitcoin sounds more like a liability than an asset.

G36 says

(he asks for intrinsic value, you send him the link, he ignores it and just asks again)

You sent me a link to a book. I asked you to summarize. Do you have a simple answer to the question of "what is the intrinsic value of bitcoin?"

I found this smug prick to be pretty compelling. His buy in was 500 million bucks!
www.youtube.com/embed/WrR95PFYDFQ&feature=emb_logo
Another factor is if entities like this one are successful attracting institutional investors:
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-wealthy-are-hoarding-10-billion-of-bitcoin-in-bunkers?utm_source=pocket-newtab
BTC gives me the creeps, which might be a contrary indicator.

Hey what about silver... we be like


This is week we dancing for sure ;))) Nice gains

Any other PM gold bugs?

Onvacation says

Crypto has no intrinsic value. It is backed by nothing real. It has very limited use in commerce if your not an international terrorist or narco kingpin. Most people that hold it plan on one day selling it to someone that will pay more for it than they did (including transaction fees). It has artificial scarcity and takes an incredible amount of electricity just to keep the network going.

Bitcoin sounds more like a liability than an asset.

G36 says

(he asks for intrinsic value, you send him the link, he ignores it and just asks again)

You sent me a link to a book. I asked you to summarize. Do you have a simple answer to the question of "what is the intrinsic value of bitcoin?"

No, I dont think I have a simple answer for you. If there were a simple answer you probably would already have heard it. Take other forms of money like the US dollar. Whats the intrinsic value of a 100 dollar bill? a few cents production cost?
No, the value is 100 dollars for this piece of paper because its backed by the US government and the world believes in it. You may re-produce the same type of paper and it will look very authentic but nobody would accept it because its not backed by the US Government.

Why do some people buy AMZN stock at 3.2K? You may argue the intrinsic value of one Amazon stock is much less. I bought Tesla and other tech stocks and I dont care if someone tells me, but wait, you overpaid, I calculated the intrinsic value to be only X. I had people tell me that TSLA might not even make it due to their financial situation and wishful estimations. Fast forward and the stock went nuts. It was speculation on my part, probably luck and my disregard for people who argued its not worth that much.
My point is, we most likely dont arrive on the same page here. Which is totally fine. This discussion probably doesnt get us anywhere. I dont "invest"/speculate in Bitcoin because of its intrinsic value. I invest in it because I believe its price has a lot of upside. For me its a store of value and I can see there is adoption by well known entities/Nasdaq listed companies. I also like the traits of Bitcoin in comparison to other similar forms of money. If I am only concerned about intrinsic value I might as well just invest in food and entertainment, but that wont increase my wealth over time.

G36 says

I invest in it because I believe its price has a lot of upside.

If you call investing depending on the greater fool to pay more for your "coin", go for it.

I don't buy into pyramid schemes but I hear SOME people make a lot of money from them.

G36 says

I also like the traits of Bitcoin in comparison to other similar forms of money.

Yeah. It's probably better than my https://patrick.net/post/1314087/2018-02-28-getrichquickcoins

G36 says

You sent me a link to a book. I asked you to summarize. Do you have a simple answer to the question of "what is the intrinsic value of bitcoin?"

No, I dont think I have a simple answer for you.

I'll help.

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It only has value if someone else is willing to pay you for it.

Onvacation says

G36 says

You sent me a link to a book. I asked you to summarize. Do you have a simple answer to the question of "what is the intrinsic value of bitcoin?"

No, I dont think I have a simple answer for you.

I'll help.

It only has value if someone else is willing to pay you for it.

Yes, of course. I dont buy Bitcoin at the current price (value) because I hope it will stay at that price (value). I put money in Bitcoin because I believe someone (the market) will pay more in the future for it. Same with tech stocks BTW. The number of Bitcoin addresses is growing and the number of Nasdaq listed companies that either invest in Bitcoin or build infrastructure to transact Bitcoin is also growing (Paypal, Microstrategies, Square). I absolutely think that the market ("someone willing to pay for it") will grow.

If I dont believe that someone else will pay more for my tech stock, Bitcoin or my fixer upper in the future compared to what I pay today, why would I want to invest in it? Thats what almost any market is. You invest/speculate with something because you believe the future price is higher as long it still meets your risk profile.

Your risk profile lets you only invest in food/entertainment. That's fine. My risk profile allows me to invest in something thats highly volatile without losing sleep. Someone else might speculates with leveraged trading vehicles and may lose or win big. And someone else might like to go to Vegas and put it all on red. I dont call any of these people names because its their choice and its legal.

OnVacation, After reading your comments I think you really don't invest in much other than food/entertainment as you said. First, your story didn't make much sense to me, you are just on vacation (indefinitely, but you still work) and because of being onvacation you invest only in food/entertainment. Yet you take all this time to call people greater fools and idiots that invest in Bitcoin.
After reading your comments about pyramid schemes etc. I think you might have gotten burnt by investing in something in the past and therefore you wont put money into something that is speculative/risky or has no simple answer of intrinsic value. I think that is totally fine. What I didn't think is a bit too much is calling Bitcoin speculators/investors greater fools or calling it a pyramid scheme. Pyramid schemes are illegal. Its meant to ruin people and only benefit a few on the top. That shows me you have a strong hostility against people that like to invest in Bitcoin. You don't say these things about people investing in tech stocks, even though we could argue that the value of a certain tech stock is way above its intrinsic value, or do you?

G36 says

I dont buy Bitcoin at the current price (value) because I hope it will stay at that price (value). I put money in Bitcoin because I believe someone (the market) will pay more in the future for it. Same with tech stocks BTW.

Nice it's all the same as you say, regardless any active professional trader or investor will tell you all markets are a "looking forward" game not so much a look in the review mirror situation for the absolutely most part. BTW I never got around to setting my SL which in this case a SL wouldn't of been set to save me from ruin just a shot at discount pricing lol
Price is again above 15250 and Sunday morning US can often turn into a sweet spot for price movement the same when the Asian markets opens this evening. I have other crypto which depending when BTC "HITS" 16800 I may sell due to how hot it should be when it lands there. Good investing.

G36 BTW, BTC also became a high probability "BUY" 4hr as soon as it breached up above 15100

G36 BTW, BTC also became a high probability "BUY" 4hr as soon as it breached up above 15100

G36 says

My risk profile allows me to invest in something thats highly volatile without losing sleep.

So buying a bitcoin is like buying a lotto ticket.

Onvacation says

G36 says

My risk profile allows me to invest in something thats highly volatile without losing sleep.

So buying a bitcoin is like buying a lotto ticket.

Onvacation, Maybe for you. Because your risk profile lets you only invest in food/entertainment. For me, no. Not at all. I dont buy lotto tickets, thats gambling to me with very bad odds. I like to speculate in Bitcoin/tech stocks etc. Other Nasdaq listed companies invest in it too. Square/Paypal dont buy lotto tickets. But they put a significant amount of money in Bitcoin.

I am starting to think you just like to provoke instead of having a real/meaningful discussion. Which is why you dont answer questions.

Cash,
in which other Cryptos do you invest and why? I agree the backtest to lower levels is very bullish. I am thinking of either buying more Bitcoin or other cryptos.

G36 says

I dont call any of these people names because its their choice and its legal.

I'm not calling you a fool directly, but indirectly I am because I think it is foolish to invest in bitcoin. The fact that it currently uses as much electricity as the country of Chile just to maintain it should convince any but the most feeble minded that it is not sustainable.

Now you are not a fool if you win and somehow someone someday wants to buy your accumulated store of coins for some fantastic amount and you agree to sell.

People who speculate in bitcoin should admit that they are dependent on the next greatest fool to buy their worthless wallet full of coins. The last greatest fool will have nothing but a flash drive full of bits.

At least tulips were pretty.

G36 says

That shows me you have a strong hostility against people that like to invest in Bitcoin. You don't say these things about people investing in tech stocks, even though we could argue that the value of a certain tech stock is way above its intrinsic value, or do you?

It's not you I have disdain for it's crypto as a currency. It's not.

As a software engineer I do understand the concept of blockchain and know that it is open source. I have seen a lot of change in technology over the years and some brilliant young geek is always coming up with a hack that makes the old way obsolete. Crypto currently takes incredible amounts of electricity. Like I have said, it's not sustainable.

Tech stocks have intrinsic value. Pets.com made some people a lot of money. So does Apple. Some stocks pay dividends. I don't mess with the stock market. I just dollar cost average chunks of mutual funds and let it ride, knowing full well it may or may not be there when I want it. I am diversified. I don't gamble, though when the lotto reaches a stupid prize amount I buy a ticket.

I don't spend a lot of time investing. I spend about half my time working, making the world a better place. the other half I spend playing. I particularly enjoy sailing in the bay and working on my little sloop. Sailing, windsurfing, motorcycling, traveling, staying fit, good food, the best investment is leading a good balanced life.

But if you want to, and have the coin, to spend $30k on a couple of Bitcoins in the hope that someday somewhere someone will pay you a lot more money for them, go for it, but it's a speculation (gamble) not an investment. That is if you believe that is is what it is.

Cash says

G36 BTW, BTC also became a high probability "BUY" 4hr as soon as it breached up above 15100

The lotto is $138.000,000.00 this week. Your chances of winning are about the same whether you play or not but you definitely will not win if you don't buy a ticket. If you and a bunch of your friends buy a bunch of tickets the prize will be even higher.

Don't miss out!

G36 says

I am starting to think you just like to provoke instead of having a real/meaningful discussion. Which is why you dont answer questions.

No. I just like to provoke cognitive dissonance.

G36 says

in which other Cryptos do you invest and why? I agree the backtest to lower levels is very bullish. I am thinking of either buying more Bitcoin or other cryptos.

There is also the super lotto.

Ok, now I am getting a bit annoying.

Thanks OnVacation, first off I appreciate that you are sharing some insight which sounds a lot more realistic now.

I agree with a lot of few things you are saying (Blockchain tech is fast changing/evolving, electricity of Bitcoin and most of all "Best investment is leading a good balanced life"). It also sounds like you are in a pretty good financial situation and don't really need to spend time on investing to make your lifestyle work. That's good for you!

The one thing I don't fully get is, you say if something has no intrinsic value than it has no value and investors are greater fools. I get that tech stocks have intrinsic value but how does your "greater-fool-theory" apply to the fact hat the market price is way above the intrinsic value for tech stocks?

For instance, AMZN, this website is calculating the intrinsic value of AMZN
https://www.gurufocus.com/term/iv_dcf_share/AMZN/Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF/Amazoncom#:~:text=As%20of%20today%20(2020%2D11,FCF%20of%20today%20is%206.6.

Since the price per stock is multiple times greater, do you see AMZN stock holders as part of the greater fool theory?

G36 says

I get that tech stocks have intrinsic value but how does your "greater-fool-theory" apply to the fact hat the market price is way above the intrinsic value for tech stocks?

The fiat money systems. It is some kind of law of nature that those that have get more and those that have not, lose that they even seem to have. When money from nothing gets created it has to go somewhere. Thus the stock market boom while many people are living paycheck to paycheck. The rich get richer.

The fiat money system has forced us all to be gamblers. Savings accounts pay less interest than inflation and that is before banks start charging us to hold our money. There is no way the current system can last more than a couple hundred more years. Your best investment is still in experience, good food, entertainment, and helping the less fortunate.

I did a lot of research on crypto a couple of years ago when it was reaching for $20k. Any of the fools that bought at that price have sold and moved on or are HODLing in the hopes of fortunes. My research revealed how well setup the scam was; "coins in your wallet", "digital gold", "the currency of the future", "an untraceable way to transfer money", "a permanent record of all transactions", "a financial system apart from the government", "they're not making any more, once the last bitcoin is mined, that's it" and my favorite, "buy now or be priced out forever". Hype.

Good luck with your speculation.

onvacation, I agree with a lot here. I used to not want a credit card. Why should I get in debt and risk spending more than I have and risk paying enormous interest on it?
I had to get several credit cards in order to built a great credit score. I know there are other ways but this is actually an easy way for some. Not for all. Most probably max out their cards and get screwed. People like me actually spend time on finding cards that offer sign up bonuses for spending a minimum amount within a few months. After a year I cancel the card or switch to a card that has no annual fee. A bit of work maintaining my spreadsheet but I play the game to get more points for travel and other stuff.
And that's my point, play the game.

I would add one thing to your sentence:
"Your best investment is still in experience, good food, entertainment, and helping the less fortunate" + building passive income.

You still haven't really answered the question if tech stocks investors are also greater fools since the intrinsic value of the stock is 5-6 times lower than the market price.

Regarding "fools" buying at an all time high in the last Bitcoin bull cycle.....What do you say about people who bought in the previous bull cycle at an all time high of 1k and held until now?

I struggle with saying you are a greater fool now for buying but later when you sell at a higher price you are all of the sudden not a greater fool anymore.

Also, the buy now or be priced out forever phrase came from the 2005/2006 housing bubble....That phrase will be repeating by some people during any bubble.

G36 says

I struggle with saying you are a greater fool now for buying but later when you sell at a higher price you are all of the sudden not a greater fool anymore.

Bitcoin profits are dependent on someone paying more than you did for the coin. The same could be said about a gold coin, but at least with the gold coin you have a shiny piece of metal that can be used to make things. With real estate you have a place you can live. With stocks, for good or bad, you own a piece of a business's profits and losses. With Crypto you own... what?

My biggest problem with Bitcoin and other such devices is that it depends on fools to make money. When you pass your bitcoin ownership on to the bigger or smaller fool (dependent on your profits or losses) you also pass on the fool moniker.

I don't have a problem with people making fools of themselves. I do have a problem with fools trying to make fools of others even unconsciously. And I think I have made it clear why I think bitcoin is a foolish speculation requiring ever greater fools to profit, and not an investment.

G36 says

Also, the buy now or be priced out forever phrase came from the 2005/2006 housing bubble....That phrase will be repeating by some people during any bubble.

I'd call it more of a mania like tulips or beanie babies rather than a bubble like we had with the real estate bubble.

"With Crypto you own... what?"

A lot of traits actually. Not shininess though.

Gold has been a currency since time immemorial backed by GOLD!. The fiat dollar has been a currency since 1973 when it was no longer backed by gold. Bitcoin is a pseudo-currency backed by nothing and valued in fiat currency.

If you offered me equal values of all three I would definitely take the cash. I'd go on a nice trip with my wife and eat some good food.

We were thinking of a road trip to San Diego for X-mas because it's not real convenient to fly to New England this year.

personal

Onvacation says

We were thinking of a road trip to San Diego for X-mas because it's not real convenient to fly to New England this year.

Gonna miss Maine lobster rolls this year. But San Diego has fish tacos and sailboat rentals!