patrick.net

FJB says

Onvacation says

SO, how do you make money investing in crypto without finding a greater fool to pay more than you did?

I've rejected the premise.

If you don't know who the fool is, it might be you.

Onvacation says

If you don't know who the fool is, it might be you.

Fools are people who are unable to make probabilistic models of the future and prepare for them appropriately Bill.

Onvacation says

Go ahead. This is the crypto currency is a scam thread.

Nah, too lazy. Besides you've already taken the torch.

FJB says

Onvacation says

Go ahead. This is the crypto currency is a scam thread.

Nah, too lazy. Besides you've already taken the torch.

OK. Go ahead. Tell us why bitcoin is not a scam requiring a bigger fool to buy your coin in order to make a profit?

Bitcoin is a great way to get ahead financially. I bought it for 15k a while back and it more then doubled. These other coins I have did even better.

Just dollar cost average some of your funds in crypto and HODL for years. Try to avoid the noise and don't care about the swings. If you are up considerably, sell some. Nothing wrong with taking profits. Just don't get too greedy.

> Bitcoin, FJB

Full disclosure: I just started learning about cryptocurrencies, but quite aggressively. I made it a priority.

Having said that. Cost of transaction for bitcoin is non-trivial, but the chart doesn't show it at all. In fact, it implies the opposite: "Easily transactible: High". Indeed, you can counter that "easy" and "cheap" are not the same, in which case I'd point out that cost of transaction is simply missing from the chart and that the wording is misleading.

I understand that this makes small transactions non-reversible in practical terms.

mostly reader says

Full disclosure: I just started learning about cryptocurrencies, but quite aggressively. I made it a priority.

Having said that. Cost of transaction for bitcoin is non-trivial, but the chart doesn't show it at all.

Checkout the lightning network. The whole industry is just getting started but it's already exploded into many entities working on many different projects. Way to many for me to keep up with.

Right now it's too much of a pain in the butt for most people to use. Later you won't even notice. For instance, you and I don't care about each other's ISP only that our messages reach each other.

Also, bitcoin is significantly different than most other cryptocurrencies. The energy required is what protects it. The others may be quicker and cheaper but less secure among other things. Different niche. Bitcoin is more like gold. I believe it now does smart contracts natively recently though.

Onvacation says

OK. Go ahead. Tell us why bitcoin is not a scam requiring a bigger fool to buy your coin in order to make a profit?

Reject the premise again.

It's a network with software apps that provide value.

The hypothesis you keep repeating suggests it'll eventually crash to zero because it has no value. It has value because humans decided it has value. Like $, your matchbox car, gold, oil, bullets, cigs, tulips.

Since you're being hypothetical we might say your matchbox car is scam that will go to zero because over the next decade old white guys with matchbox cars might get their heads chopped off. Or we might discover gold causes ovarian and testicular cancer. Even a commodity like oil went negative within the past 2 years.

Why haven't you answered a single one of my questions Bill?

FJB says

Bitcoin is more like gold

I reject your premise. Gold only has to be mined once, a store of value, while Bitcoin has to be "mined" over and over or it disappears. Gold is an element. Bitcoin is a scam.

FJB says

we might discover gold causes ovarian and testicular cancer

LOL!
Really?

FJB says

Why haven't you answered a single one of my questions Bill?

I'm not bill.

None of the guys who like Bitcoin bought it for $65,000, but some did and they are biting their fingernails waiting for other guys to bid it back up.

FJB says

Also, bitcoin is significantly different than most other cryptocurrencies. The energy required is what protects it. The others may be quicker and cheaper but less secure among other things. Different niche. Bitcoin is more like gold. I believe it now does smart contracts natively recently though.

Right, "the energy required is what protects it." There's a flip side to that: small transactions are irreversible. If you used bitcoin to buy something for an equivalent of $10, and not satisfied, it's cheaper to just forget about it than to get a refund. Then, there may be another network which makes transactions easier but at the cost of security.

I understand that this is a built-in feature which comes with it's own benefits, but a fare comparison chart should at least mention it.

mostly reader says

but a fare comparison chart should at least mention it.

Yeah, agree with everything you said. I'm just not sure what this comparison chart is you're referring to.

Onvacation says

I'm not bill.

Come on Bill. It all makes sense. The affinity for Florida, the sail boat, the pirate picture...

Onvacation says

Gold only has to be nined once

To keep gold requires a lot of energy. Storage, transport among others. The no energy after mining argument is a cannard.

Onvacation says

Gold is an element.

People literally get rich on vibrating air molecules. Music royalties. They don't own the air molecules themselves, just the vibrations.

FJB says

mostly reader says

but a fare comparison chart should at least mention it.

Yeah, agree with everything you said. I'm just not sure what this comparison chart is you're referring to.

There was a chart few posts above mine, the type which compares crypto against other financial instruments (fiat/gold/etc.) and crypto comes out ahead in all metrics. I don't see it any longer.

Why You Should Put All of Your Money in Bitcoin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-zIbVEjVpQ&source=patrick.net

mostly reader says

There was a chart few posts above mine, the type which compares crypto against other financial instruments (fiat/gold/etc.) and crypto comes out ahead in all metrics. I don't see it any longer.

Oh, yeah, I recall seeing those but I didn't look at them closely / didn't post them. I like the others too. I don't understand why there is a debate amongst sound money people.

clambo says

None of the guys who like Bitcoin bought it for $65,000, but some did and they are biting their fingernails waiting for other guys to bid it back up.

Clambo in 2019: Someone bought the Bitcoin top at 20k!
Clambo in 2022: Someone bought the Bitcoin top at 65K!
Clambo in 2024: Someone bought the Bitcoin top at 150k!

There will always be the-glass-is-half-empty type of guys.... trying to shit on your investment is what they do in their free time.
Bitcoin has been the best performing asset over the last 10years.

FJB says

To keep gold requires a lot of energy

Not if you put it in a chest, bury it and make a map. Or you can make it into jewelry. When you hold Bitcoin it is a flash drive worth only what you can get a rube to pay for it AND it requires an unsustainable amount of energy to maintain.

FJB says

Onvacation says

Gold is an element.

People literally get rich on vibrating air molecules. Music royalties. They don't own the air molecules themselves, just the vibrations.

Are you equating gold to air? Really?

mostly reader says

to.

There was a chart few posts above mine, the type which compares crypto against other financial instruments (fiat/gold/etc.) and crypto comes out ahead in all metrics. I don't see it any longer.

Take your flash drive and a gold coin to a pawn shop and see which one they want to buy.

FJB says

I don't understand why there is a debate amongst sound money people.

Definition of sound money

: money not liable to sudden appreciation or depreciation in value : stable money specifically : a currency based on or redeemable in gold — compare paper money.

Bitcoin is neither sound nor stable.

Onvacation says

FJB says

To keep gold requires a lot of energy

Not if you put it in a chest, bury it and make a map

That's correct FJB. Its much more cost effective, safer and easier to store Bitcoin than it is to store gold.
No need to buy a chest and bury it in the ground. No need for a map either.
With Crypto you simply store your wealth on a cold storage/hardware wallet. Keep your private keys at a different place.

A hundred years ago burring your wealth in the ground was maybe a thing but this is 2022.
....Bill still uses a landline and overpays for matchbox cars :)

Ha ha so the guy who bought Bitcoin in 2021 for $65,000 and is $30,000 underwater in 2022 is gonna have $150,000 in 2024?

That’s a neat trick.

Gold bugs can easily trade GLDM but lose the expense ratio 0.18%.

clambo says

Ha ha so the guy who bought Bitcoin in 2021 for $65,000 and is $30,000 underwater in 2022 is gonna have $150,000 in 2024?

That’s a neat trick.

no tricks here. Bitcoin started ten years ago with less than $1. That's what happens if you have limited supply of Bitcoin. You cant print more.
People like you thought 20K was the forever top and Bitcoin will never reach 20k again. If I would have told you Bitcoin will be trading for 38k on 2/1/2022 you would have laughed and declared me crazy. $150k seems unbelievable to you in 2022. Lets talk in 5 years from now :)

Actually I never thought about Bitcoin until my friend bragged about her nephew having it recently.

Onvacation says

Not if you put it in a chest, bury it and make a map. Or you can make it into jewelry. When you hold Bitcoin it is a flash drive worth only what you can get a rube to pay for it AND it requires an unsustainable amount of energy to maintain.

If you bury it you cannot use it. Burying it and making a map is not secure either. I don't recommend it but you could make jewelry out of bitcorn wallets. It does not use that much energy relatively speaking. That's just FUD someone convinced you is true. Gold mining alone uses more energy so do coffee machines. If you shut down the legacy banking system it's a huge net plus in energy savings, it's not even close.

Onvacation says

Are you equating gold to air? Really?

You're damn right I am but I'm not making a comparison of equivalence, quite the contrary I'm showing you that people have decided vibrating air has value and in some cases A LOT of value.

Onvacation says

Take your flash drive and a gold coin to a pawn shop and see which one they want to buy.

I don't hang out in dirty pawn shops.

Onvacation says

Definition of sound money

: money not liable to sudden appreciation or depreciation in value : stable money specifically : a currency based on or redeemable in gold — compare paper money.

We all saw the dictionary companies change the definition of many things over the past 2 years. 'Vaccines' etc... The person who coined the phrase was Aristotle as far as I know unless someone before him did. Here is a gold bug blurb about it:

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/money_aristotle_050120092?source=patrick.net

Notice there isn't anything in there about gold or volatility?

On that note I DO agree with you and the dict, sound money shouldn't be volatile. I did not say bitcorn was sound money. I suggested I'm a sound money proponent and that's the upside to bitcorn: It's volatility is generally positive (good!) and at some point it'll flatten out and become sound. I'm guessing that'll be true when there are a few billion people using it.

I think the days of insane overnight gazillionaires are over and there is much less upside but I think a 10x is given and likely much much more. I'll be happy if it beats the USD inflation plus some sort of decent premium over the long term. I expect I'll be happily surprised.

Onvacation says

I'd (for now) put asterisks next to bitcorn being 'durable' and 'secure' simply because it hasn't existed for very long. Many people make the mistake that bitcorn has been hacked which isn't true. Those were essentially bank robberies or the feds scrapping aws ec2 instances because morons left their bitcorn up there.

I do believe it's durable and secure though - we shall see.

clambo says

Actually I never thought about Bitcoin until my friend bragged about her nephew having it recently.

You don't have to. You've made great choices with your mutual funds and it paid off. I'm afraid younger generations (I'm X, younger than moi) won't be able to recreate your success.

This is one way for some of millennials and zennnials to catch a break. It's a somewhat short term period before things flatten out for good. Last I read >95% of crypto was held by those two generations. Lots less with X -> Boomers -> Silent in that order.

clambo says

Gold bugs can easily trade GLDM but lose the expense ratio 0.18%.

I've been staring at the gold and silver markets for nearly a year. Feels like I should have stacked some last summer. I do think they are something people should have. Cannibal Anarchy could happen. The sun could decide to EMP the earth and shut down the internet for an extended period. I think gold and silver are great for that situation despite the lackluster performance over the past decade. Even if they don't do as well this year as I think they might.

But that damn premium just kills me. For silver in particular it's like 50% over spot. If you try to buy a monster box of silver it's more expensive per coin that just buying singletons. WTF is up with that? I know it's heavier/$ and takes workmanship and shipping but damn.

People chided those new fangled electric candles at one point. Candles worked just fine for thousands of years.

FJB says

bury it

If I buried it I couldn't make 100,000 $10 loans which expire in 24hrs and automatically irrevocably retrieve the interest and principle I charged as per the smart contract.

It all depends on no one ever being able to figure out how to reverse the md5 or whatever hashing algorithm they are using.

That is, if someone figures out a quick way to say "given this input block, what unknown string must I tack on to the block to get the hash of the string to come out with a certain number of zeros at the end?"

It's totally possible someone might figure that out, then it's game over and all bitcoin will belong to that person. It will then take about zero energy for that person to mine coins, and it will be very fast. Whoever can do the calculation first gets the vig from the validation of that block.

Currently, people who want to mine coins have to just try all possible unknown strings until they get a hit. That's what's using up all the energy and making it slow.