patrick.net

Onvacation says

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/04/21/bitcoin-halving-triggers-unprecedented-crypto-chaos-as-price-suddenly-surges/?sh=2473f3995804

So-called bitcoin miners secure the bitcoin network and process transactions in exchange for newly minted bitcoin and transaction fees via powerful computers that are believed to use as much electricity each year as some small countries

And...

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

We will need to generate twice the power we do to handle the rapid re-industrialization going on in the US. That means bullshit power consumption like bitcoin and EV charging is going to be taking a back seat, one way or another.

Expect a jump in the price of bitcoin

Security expert Ahmed Banafa "said Tuesday that it looks likely that hackers infiltrated the bank's [Patelco credit union] internal databases via a phishing email and encrypted its contents, locking out the bank from its own systems," the Mercury News reported. Banafa was paraphrased as saying that it is "likely the hackers will demand an amount of money from the credit union to restore its systems back to normal, and will continue to hold the bank's accounts hostage until either the bank finds a way around the hack or until the hackers are paid."

Change Healthcare, a health payment processing company hit by ransomware this year, told lawmakers that it paid a ransom of $22 million in bitcoin.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/07/everythings-frozen-ransomware-locks-credit-union-users-out-of-bank-accounts/

Remember: fiat in, fiat out.

Cryptocurrencies are just money laundries and gambling casinos.

Onvacation says

Expect a jump in the price of bitcoin

Probably not until Mt. Gox is done (finally selling out) as well as the German government finishes selling out - on the open market instead of over the counter for some reason.

Median new US home price in bitcoin (BTC)

So by 2028, it will take no more than 2 BTC to be equivalent to a median new US home price ?

2012 - 50,616 $BTC
2013 - 19,127 $BTC
2014 - 351 $BTC
2015 - 901 $BTC
2016 - 697 $BTC
2017 - 323 $BTC
2018 - 24 $BTC
2019 - 84 $BTC
2020 - 46 $BTC
2021 - 10 $BTC
2022 - 20 $BTC
2023 - 14 $BTC
2024 - 8 $BTC

AD says

So by 2028, it will take no more than 2 BTC to be equivalent to a median new US home price ?

Assuming enough fools can be found to support higher prices.

Buy now or be priced out FOREVER!

They're not making any more!

THE CURRENCY OF THE FUTURE!

just $56,912.40 per coin*

^{* plus transaction fees}

Onvacation says

Assuming enough fools can be found to support higher prices.

I understand as it is how much does it get adopted by retail investors.

Larry Fink was one of the first to offer a Bitcoin ETF through Blackrock.

The fact that Blackrock got into the game says a lot as far as Bitcoin's future.

Everything I heard is that Bitcoin holds value when the currency devalues, such as listening to The Mooch on Bloomberg TV recommending to have 1 to 3% of your assets in a Bitcoin ETF, because its safer than holding Bitcoin through a digital wallet.

.

AD says

The Mooch on Bloomberg TV recommending to have 1 to 3% of your assets in a Bitcoin ETF, because its safer than holding Bitcoin through a digital wallet.

That's all I've ever recommended, a small percentage. Except not in an ETF but your own cold storage wallet. Not your key, not your coin. I have started trading it using part of my Roth using an ETF though. Cold storage coins I'm not selling.

AD says

Everything I heard is that Bitcoin holds value when the currency devalues

Logically, How can that be?

Crypto is valued in fiat.
When you buy crypto you pay in fiat.
When you sell crypto you get paid in fiat.
Kind of like gold.

But it is not gold.

However, both crypto and gold will go to infinite $ when $ goes to zero.

"They" like bitcoin because they can charge $85 on an $8 transaction. It's tailor-made for middlemen. You thought real estate commissions were bad? Try bitcoin transaction fees at 15X higher.

Onvacation says

Logically, How can that be?

Crypto is valued in fiat.
When you buy crypto you pay in fiat.
When you sell crypto you get paid in fiat.
Kind of like gold.

But it is not gold.

It is getting more and more adopted (such as thru Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF) as a hedge against devaluation of currency.

How can that be, you asked. To answer your question, examine how many Bitcoins it takes to be a US median priced home over the last 15 years.

.

stereotomy says

"They" like bitcoin because they can charge $85 on an $8 transaction. It's tailor-made for middlemen. You thought real estate commissions were bad? Try bitcoin transaction fees at 15X higher.

Yeah you bring up a good point about the Bitcoin miners charging for a fee to verify and process a Bitcoin sale.

From what I've read, there will be enough competition among the Bitcoin miners to make the fee reasonable like charge a 1% fee for the Bitcoin sale.

I own 556 shares of Fidelity Bitcoin ETF at a cost basis of $32363.

I calculated I own equivalent of about 48.7% of one Bitcoin (BTC).

I figure I will sell the ETF if Bitcoin goes to $1 or $1 million.

Hopefully I sell when 1/2 of a Bitcoin is equivalent in value to the US median price house.

AD says

stereotomy says

"They" like bitcoin because they can charge $85 on an $8 transaction. It's tailor-made for middlemen. You thought real estate commissions were bad? Try bitcoin transaction fees at 15X higher.

Yeah you bring up a good point about the Bitcoin miners charging for a fee to verify and process a Bitcoin sale.

From what I've read, there will be enough competition among the Bitcoin miners to make the fee reasonable like charge a 1% fee for the Bitcoin sale.

Yeah, when bitcoin transactions are < 1%, then that's the time to get aboard. I mean, sales taxes are 8% or worse. Right now it's HODLers and speculative banks.

stereotomy says

Right now it's HODLers and speculative banks.

Its about adoption, which is about the Blackrock's and Fidelity's getting its retail investors to buy their Bitcoin ETFs.

With that in the background, how much will the trend continue as far as it taking less Bitcoins to buy a US median priced new home.

Will it only take 2 Bitcoins when the next halving occurs around 2028 ?

.

stereotomy says

Right now it's HODLers and speculative banks.

.
.

News about this much of an inflow tells me Bitcoin has greater chance of being mainstream adopted and there is no progressive or cumulative exodus after a +22% drop from its recent all time high.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-investors-bought-dip-142303411.html

.

AD says

Its about adoption, which is about the Blackrock's and Fidelity's getting its retail investors to buy their Bitcoin ETFs.

No. It's about service fees on the accounts. You get 1 million bitcoiners and you buy it for them and charge monthly or annual service fees for holding bitcoin for you that you'll never be able to access. If it goes down, you lose the money not Blackrock or Fidelity.

Blackrock and Fidelity are looking at it like someone would a rental property. You buy bitcoin and rent it out to the public and collect rent. It's the same for gold and silver EFT's. You'll never physically hold what you bought in your home. That's why bitcoin is so stupid. I can hold a gold bar or silver coins. There have been multiple example of people losing millions from exchanges with bitcoin.

And that's on purpose to jack up the prices for the whales that run the game. Which it is a game. All stocks are this way. But you can walk into a Walmart. You can go to a Toyota dealership. You can see the real estate and the product. Bitcoin is literally nothing. Even those that invest in it have no clue what it is. So Blackrock and Fidelity buy some for you and you pay them rent. If it goes up you win, they still get the rent. If it goes down you lose and they still get rent.

WookieMan says

AD says

Its about adoption, which is about the Blackrock's and Fidelity's getting its retail investors to buy their Bitcoin ETFs.

No. It's about service fees on the accounts. You get 1 million bitcoiners and you buy it for them and charge monthly or annual service fees for holding bitcoin for you that you'll never be able to access. If it goes down, you lose the money not Blackrock or Fidelity.

I was saying its about adoption by the masses of retail investors, and that a Blackrock makes it easier for them to invest in Bitcoin through their ETF just like its easier to invest in gold and silver through ETFs then to actually hold the gold and silver such as in a home safe, bank safety deposit box; as well as the ETF has more liquidity as I would have to find a physical buyer for the silver coins and conduct the transaction in person.

I was saying that if the floor does not closely come out from under Bitcoin and it recovers, then it has a better chance of attracting retail investors.

There was about a 27% drop from Bitcoin's all time high of around $73,000 in March to $53,000 recent low.

Its now $56,000.

It was $53,000 and $56,000 back in February 2021. So the gains for last 3.5 years have been wiped out.

And a 10% drop or correction in the S&P 500 to around 5000 which would mean the real gains since June 2021 would be 0%.

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

,

AD says

I was saying its about adoption by the masses of retail investors, and that a Blackrock makes it easier for them to invest in Bitcoin through their ETF just like its easier to invest in gold and silver through ETFs then to actually hold the gold and silver such as in a home safe, bank safety deposit box; as well as the ETF has more liquidity as I would have to find a physical buyer for the silver coins and conduct the transaction in person.

I'd rather conduct physical trading in person and store myself. The problem with bitcoin is there's no physical value. It's technically worthless besides people being suckered into paying for it. EFT's just sucker more people into something that will ultimately collapse. Gold and silver are used in products that can be made and sold if you hold physical.

Hell if you go to home depot and buy 2k feet of 1/2" copper pipe you'd probably make more in 5 years. Sell it 5% under market and you'd still make out like a bandit unless we get deflation and in that case bitcoin would crater as it's tied to the dollar or other foreign currencies.

Bitcoin market movements are pointless to discuss. It's worthless at the end of the day. The dollar is at least backed by the biggest military, oil, minerals, farmland, infrastructure on the planet. Bitcoin is a spreadsheet.

AD says

Will it only take 2 Bitcoins when the next halving occurs around 2028 ?

Why not just pay cash?

Onvacation says

Why not just pay cash?

That question does not pertain to the discussion on this thread as far as Bitcoin storing value in dollars , no different than Wookie saying below that buying and holding 2000 feet of copper pipe as a long term asset like gold, silver and Bitcoin.

but yes, buy with cash the diesel or gasoline at the gas station pump for your vehicle

AD says

long term asset like gold, silver and Bitcoin.

but yes, buy with cash the diesel or gasoline at the gas station pump for your vehicle

Pay with credit. Get the kickbacks. Bitcoin is not even an asset. Is there real estate? No. Is there a product? No. Can you do anything with it? No. Is it regulated and you know who holds it? No.

Is there insider trading? Yes. Is it a spreadsheet? Yes. Do whales control the price? Yes. Have multiple trading platforms screwed over people for billions? Yes.

Better off going to Vegas over BTC. Or just put your money in funds that pay dividends and are likely to appreciate. Sit back and relax.

WookieMan says

Better off going to Vegas over BTC. Or just put your money in funds that pay dividends and are likely to appreciate. Sit back and relax.

I understand as the argument is there is "nothing backing" Bitcoin (BTC). Its a digital asset stored on a ledger or spreadsheet called the Blockchain.

But with the Blockrock's and Fidelity's in the BTC market by offering BTC exchange traded funds, its a more "adopted" asset by retail investors than it was before these ETFs were approved by Gary Gensler's SEC.

And who wants to go up against a Blackrock's Larry Fink to tell him he got it all wrong such as with BTC. Not me.

.

The SEC approved BTC ETF's probably because they can be used as a sink for hot money. The largest cap stonks are wildly overvalued, even against gross revenues, let alone net profits. BTC ETF's probably lance the boil somewhat, possibly limiting the fallout in the broader market once panic ensues.

stereotomy says

The SEC approved BTC ETF's probably because they can be used as a sink for hot money. The largest cap stonks are wildly overvalued, even against gross revenues, let alone net profits. BTC ETF's probably lance the boil somewhat, possibly limiting the fallout in the broader market once panic ensues.

That makes sense as far as rotating gains from a hot asset class or stock to a different asset or asset class.

I wonder if BTC has done similarly to silver going back to around 2011.

A lot of the silver bugs would be attracted to BTC based on their investing or speculative trading style.

From what I gather such as from The Mooch, keep about 4% in BTC, 7% in gold and silver, and 9% in oil and gas.

.

AD says

From what I gather such as from The Mooch, keep about 4% in BTC, 7% in gold and silver, and 9% in oil and gas.

What about yams and ammo?

Onvacation says

AD says

From what I gather such as from The Mooch, keep about 4% in BTC, 7% in gold and silver, and 9% in oil and gas.

What about yams and ammo?

What I proposed was a hedge as far as significant devaluation of the dollar. Of course its not about preparing for the collapse of society, as in The Road or Mad Max-style collapse.

But I appreciate your satire.

.

AD says

What I proposed was a hedge as far as significant devaluation of the dollar.

Bitcoin is valued in the dollar. It will follow the dollar. The fact it's not higher means it's a bad hedge. With inflation it should have been over $100k.

I can't explain this enough. There are under 100 people controlling bitcoin specifically. No regulation. You're getting into a trap if you invest in it. You will freak at some point and sell to the whales. This has been going on since the beginning of bitcoin. It was a plan. Really think why our government hasn't regulated it?

I'm dealing with this shit now with our government. In a prevailing wage state we have to get union bids from fucking Chicago. If the government isn't regulating bitcoin, they're running it. Throw out some Asian name as the creator of it. lol. Not saying you're a fool or can't make money on it, but I won't touch it.

To echo Wookie, the reason BTC is not suppressed while gold is actively suppressed is because central banks, with the exception of fucked up places like Nicaragua, stockpile gold, not BTC. The central banks already print value from nothing, so BTC makes no sense for them - besides being redundant, it costs more energy to mine BTC than run printing presses.

stereotomy says

BTC is not suppressed while gold is actively suppressed is because central banks, with the exception of fucked up places like Nicaragua, stockpile gold, not BTC.

Yes, also I think they don't want precious metals like silver to increase much in value (relative to inflation rate) because it is used in different applications like Pentagon weapon systems.

Yes a gold standard or where precious metals crowd out investment dollars is not desired by the central banks (and the companies that they buy shares of).

Yes, as far as the BRICS especially China are increasing their gold reserves.

.

WookieMan says

Bitcoin is valued in the dollar. It will follow the dollar. The fact it's not higher means it's a bad hedge. With inflation it should have been over $100k.

give BTC some time

.

There was all that noise about bitcoin halving last April which was supposed to make it skyrocket. Didn't happen.

RWSGFY says

There was all that noise about bitcoin halving last April which was supposed to make it skyrocket. Didn't happen.

Examine the BTC price chart. Notice it did not significantly increase within 12 months of the halving.

give BTC some time

.

WookieMan says

Bitcoin is valued in the dollar. It will follow the dollar. The fact it's not higher means it's a bad hedge. With inflation it should have been over $100k.

Get outta here!

"Bitcoin’s price has climbed a staggering 9,000,000% between 2010 and 2020, making it the top-performing asset of any class over the past decade."

"As of 2024, Bitcoin’s price has a change of 31.40% so far this year."

@AD I think maybe you're just posting in the wrong thread. This thread is for misinformation, like what Wookie posted. There are one, maybe two other threads for bitcorn information.

SoTex says

Get outta here!

"Bitcoin’s price has climbed a staggering 9,000,000% between 2010 and 2020, making it the top-performing asset of any class over the past decade."

No one ever gets my point. You can trade it and make money. It is worthless besides the trade. Cool, make some money on it. Could be $90k tomorrow or it could be $20k. There is ZERO intristic value. At some point it goes to $0. And that's not a hypothetical. And for that reason I'll never invest or get caught up in the scheme.

There are tons of companies that had the same rate of return over a similar time span, not the same years. They have assets though. Real estate. Products. Bitcoin is nothing. Literally nothing. You can't go buy up the miners in a liquidation sale. There's literally nothing besides the people that are willing to buy it. That's it.

AD says

RWSGFY says

There was all that noise about bitcoin halving last April which was supposed to make it skyrocket. Didn't happen.

Examine the BTC price chart. Notice it did not significantly increase within 12 months of the halving.

give BTC some time

.

I see. The people who were pitching this sounded like it was supposed to happen almost immediately. I was too lazy to go look at the charts then.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-road-back-from-serfdom

BTC is certainly not a currency in any meaningful sense.

it is not a minimally viable product as either a means of exchange or as a means or escape.

and that latter one is the real doozie.

i came grudgingly to this viewpoint having been in and around BTC since it was in the single digits. i came to bitcoin through cryptography and early public key crypto projects like PGP that were so seminal in the whole idea of open source.

let me be clear: i am a huge believer in crypto-currency.

i think it’s probably the most important idea in the world right now.

but i also think it’s been stuck in an alley that ends in a brick wall as the early promise and purpose was lost among ponzi games, “coin have dog,” and lost vision and execution to the point where i was having a conversation with the founder of one of the major exchanges and he literally could not describe his order matching algo in even rudimentary terms, the primary purpose of ETH is ponzi casino games, and the best argument for BTC right now is “publicly traded ETF’s gotta buy it!”

this last one, of course, only makes the problem worse by generating not just greater fiat links but massive KYC systems. it’s all an increasingly curated garden of surveillance.

BTC was the AOL of crypto, a good start but unable to move forward out of early days; but now, BTC is predominantly spyware. and that’s not going to work out for people who want to leave governments behind.

when one looks at a currency there are a number of features that are needed:

1 sound

2 secure

3 scalable

4 widely accepted

6 stable

6 private

7 anonymous

BTC is 1 for 7, maybe 2 for 7, but probably not in the long run. it is sound. but it is not secure in the sense you really want it to be and the security around block integrity and ability to spam empty or altered ones inherently stands in opposition to “scalable” because its security lies in processing power and that makes scale expensive/prohibitive.

simple fact: until 100 million of us can buy lunch with it tomorrow, it’s not even in the discussion as a currency.

SoTex says

"Bitcoin’s price has climbed a staggering 9,000,000% between 2010 and 2020, making it the top-performing asset of any class over the past decade."

"As of 2024, Bitcoin’s price has a change of 31.40% so far this year."

AD I think maybe you're just posting in the wrong thread. This thread is for misinformation, like what Wookie posted. There are one, maybe two other threads for bitcorn information.

I am posting information to counterbalance the misinformation posted in this thread. Its similar to point and counterpoint.

Why not conveniently have a debate about BTC in one thread ?

.