patrick.net

Misc says

Thing about gold is that if the price drops 70%, you still got the gold.

If Bitcoin drops 70%, it's probable that all the Bitcoin miners go bust because of the continuing expense of mining it. Then Bitcoin goes to ZERO because it requires the miners to have any value at all.

So, with Bitcoin there is an event horizon where it gets sucked into nothingness.

This guy gets it. Trade it in the meantime if you like risk. 95% likely don't have the appetite for it. So you have 5% of crypto buyers on the planet and it's likely that 90% is owned by 10 people and the others lost their key and don't even know they own any.

1) "J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon have called it a "bubble"[130] and a "fraud",[131] respectively. However, Dimon said later he regrets calling Bitcoin a fraud"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency_bubble#Characterization_as_'bubble'

2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_bitcoin#Obituaries

AD says

Dimon said later he regrets calling Bitcoin a fraud

He meant "gamble". It still has as much real value as a lottery ticket until you cash out.

I suspect it will soon go over $100k. If you had bought 1 "coin" a year ago it would be worth 264% more now.

Misc says

So, with Bitcoin there is an event horizon where it gets sucked into nothingness.

My philosophy ... trade it, don't save it.

Also, it's tied with the Nasdaq flows. If the QQQ starts to go south, sell the cryptos.

Fiat in, fiat out, valued in fiat, crypto has no intrinsic value and never will.

It will probably continue to rise in price, until it doesn't. It's dependent on the greater fool.

Onvacation says

Fiat in, fiat out, valued in fiat, crypto has no intrinsic value and never will.

It will probably continue to rise in price, until it doesn't. It's dependent on the greater fool.

I'm gonna toss $100 of the kids money into BTC. So $300 total. I won't put any of my money in it, but I'm interested how it goes. I've been a top 3 hater here along with you, but a small gamble and a long timeline it will be interesting to see what happens. It's more fun than thinking they'll make bank.

I don't trust governments is the biggie, so I'd never invest in it myself. Kind of an experiment. My oldest is 14 so by 34 it "technically" should be over $1M value or higher if all these crypto guys are right. If wrong, it's not going out to dinner for a night when he'll likely be a millionaire which probably won't mean much in 2044 as well.

WookieMan says

"technically" should be over $1M value or higher if all these crypto guys are right.

I occasionally buy a lotto ticket when the jackpot is huge. I don't check the ticket immediately pretending I'm a billionaire for a while.
Crypto is like that, but with smaller returns and less electricity used

Onvacation says

WookieMan says

"technically" should be over $1M value or higher if all these crypto guys are right.

I occasionally buy a lotto ticket when the jackpot is huge. I don't check the ticket immediately pretending I'm a billionaire for a while.
Crypto is like that, but with smaller returns and less electricity used

We're in agreement. I just want to toss a Chinese balloon out there and see what happens with 3 dinners worth of money over 20 years for the kids. I'm not going to tell them. They won't know it exists unless I die.

Like I said, will never put my earned money into crypto. I don't have the risk profile for what I've already been getting good returns on. I invest in stuff that never freaks me out even if it goes down 10% or so. I know it will come back. I don't ever expect 15-20% YOY returns though either. Slow and steady and keep investing. 3% on a million is enough for me to live off solo. On target for $300-400k of interest at 59-1/2 without worrying about draining our accounts.

No point in gambling on crypto for myself. If my boys by some miracle it turns into a $100k awesome, or if it goes to $0 they have a lifetime to make $100 income in a day even in high school. Kind of like Muskie fishing in Wisconsin or Canada. Hard to catch, but sometimes you get one.

Bitcoin quantity may not be capped

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/12/19/blackrock-just-quietly-confirmed-a-devastating-bitcoin-price-bombshell/

Bought my first bitcoin.

I noticed that the prices were going up and I thought I should grab one before they go higher.

Mostly I bought it as a novelty but I'm pretty sure it will be worth more in the long run.

A little off the subject, I got a random message on Facebook from a member of an expat group in Baja Sur Mexico.

"I've been scammed out of my life savings, how do I report this?"

"I'll ask my lawyer friend in La Paz. Can you tell me a little bit about it?"

"Was working with someone to recover funds on the avocado wallet. Connected to mask and G QTrade. All of my crypto wallets, including my ledger are all empty."

"I'm sick to my stomach. I will chase this person down to the rest of my days."

Edit: I wonder if it's a crime to "steal" crypto; after all, it's not real.

ROTSA RUCK SWEETHEART.

I told her I didn't know anything about crypto and will ask around (none of my friends will know either)

Onvacation says

Bitcoin quantity may not be capped

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/12/19/blackrock-just-quietly-confirmed-a-devastating-bitcoin-price-bombshell/

"The number of bitcoin that can be issued is part of bitcoin's code and it would require agreement among those that secure the bitcoin network in return for newly minted bitcoin, known as miners, to change that. If a majority of miners did vote to increase the supply of bitcoin, the network would split, or fork, and the minority would continue to direct their computing power toward the network that is capped at around 21 million bitcoin."

People have already tried to fork it and lost. However anything is possible.

I could have bought one for $20 but ended up paying $35 ($3 over spot price). I believe it will be worth much more in the future. In 1979 it was almost $50 per ounce.

Onvacation says

Bought my first bitcoin.

I noticed that the prices were going up and I thought I should grab one before they go higher.

Mostly I bought it as a novelty but I'm pretty sure it will be worth more in the long run.

I just worry about the day it goes to zero. That's ultimately what's going to happen. No disclosure like stocks. Who knows if 80% of it is held by 10 people just playing a game? They get to decide when the game is over. This literally is a video game financial instrument.

I also don't know if this is sarcasm.

Onvacation says

I could have bought one for $20 but ended up paying $35 ($3 over spot price). I believe it will be worth much more in the future. In 1979 it was almost $50 per ounce.

Carful trying to get through TSA with that.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

Carful trying to get through TSA with that.

TSA doesn't care anymore. They'll stop me after scanning my bag, but it would be easy to move drugs, money or anything. My buddies and I (not so much now) would move good personal amounts of weed no problem.

One buddy got frisked and just asked for a female TSA agent and had a bag tucked in his underwear by his taint. She'd really have to grab onto his balls to find it. If you do coke (I don't and haven't) that is even easier.

I know it sounds boisterous, but I don't give a shit anymore. I can buy weed anywhere I'm going. Leave me the fuck alone. I'm an ass hole and will make complaints if needed against TSA agents. I flipping paying them. Not sure when an 1/8th of weed would take a plane down. Pretty sure there are other problems in that realm.

WookieMan says

TSA doesn't care anymore.

I was joking!

Onvacation says

I could have bought one for $20 but ended up paying $35 ($3 over spot price). I believe it will be worth much more in the future. In 1979 it was almost $50 per ounce.

1 ounce silver was around $48 an ounce during the middle of Obama's first term (April 2011 and with all the Quantitative Easing and Zero Interest Rate Policy [ZIRP] ).

It was $36 around December 1979. The 2011 price is its all time high price (non inflation adjusted).

https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

If you bought an ounce of silver in December 1979, the inflation adjusted price was $145, and an inflation-adjusted price of $68 in April 2011 compared to the current price of $32.50 :-/

I guess if we get another version of Birdbrain Biden in the White House then maybe silver will increase in value a lot, and as much as Bitcoin has.

I wonder how much a silver would cost if crypto like Bitcoin would not be as popular.

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AD says

1 ounce silver was around $48 an ounce during the middle of Obama's first term (April 2011 and with all the Quantitative Easing and Zero Interest Rate Policy [ZIRP] ).

It was $36 around December 1979. The 2011 price is its all time high price (non inflation adjusted).

Silver’s all-time high is $49.45, which was the metal’s price on January 18, 1980. The Hunt brothers tried to buy it up. I remember being able to get $8 at the local coin shop for a silver half dollar back in the late 1970's.

I suspect my one ounce silver bitcoin will eventually be worth more than a digital bitcoin.

Onvacation says

I suspect my one ounce silver bitcoin will eventually be worth more than a digital bitcoin.

So you buy silver as an extreme hedge or insurance for fiat currency (US dollar) ?

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AD says

So you buy silver as an extreme hedge or insurance for fiat currency (US dollar) ?

I collect coins.

I like the beauty and history of old coins. New coins are cool too.

Bitcoins are boring.

E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA33262

Bitcoin price hovers around 100k right now. I predict it will go higher. I would not be surprised if the price doubles or quintuples before its ultimate crash. The greater fools don't know any better.

The price is so high because there is so much money chasing so few coins. The concept of "market cap", total coins times price per coin, does not apply to bitcoin as there is no underlying value but the hope that some greater fool will pay more for the bits than the current buyer currently paid.

It's an expensive and wasteful game tying up capital and consuming vast resources just like the silver coins in my safe. The difference is my silver has real substance and real value as well as being aesthetically pleasing. Bitcoins are nothing but zeros and ones floating on ether.

Onvacation says

Bitcoin price hovers around 100k right now. I predict it will go higher. I would not be surprised if the price doubles or quintuples before its ultimate crash. The greater fools don't know any better.

In the past, I recall it used to be that a hedge bet as far as fiat currency was to put at least 10% of assets in a precious metal trust ETF and 10% in oil and gas ETF and the rest in a balanced fund like a 70/30 fund.

When the Bitcoin ETFs were about to be rolled out, I remember "The Mooch" saying on Bloomberg TV while at Davos that he was recommended to his clients to keep about 4 to 5% of assets in a Bitcoin ETF.

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Onvacation says

I could have bought one for $20 but ended up paying $35 ($3 over spot price). I believe it will be worth much more in the future. In 1979 it was almost $50 per ounce.

My bitcoin is up by $5.

Rin says

Misc says

So, with Bitcoin there is an event horizon where it gets sucked into nothingness.

My philosophy ... trade it, don't save it.

Also, it's tied with the Nasdaq flows. If the QQQ starts to go south, sell the cryptos.

what’s QQQ?

John McAfee On Bitcoin

original link

My bitcoin is worth $50!!!

The money has to go somewhere.

Back in 2011 about a year after BTC was created, the silver boom brought it to about $50 ounce, and back to early 1980's all time high price level.

The question is how much of an adoption or acceptance will there be of BTC ? Will it essentially be a staple like 5% of assets of the average investor ? Such as 5% in BTC, 5% in gold and silver and 5% in an oil and gas ETF.

I guess if BTC goes down, then those cashing in their BTC capital gains would roll it into silver or gold as far as hedging against fiat currency.

AD says

hedging against fiat currency

Silver, gold, platinum, guns, ammo and yams; these are all hedges on hyperinflation.

BTC is much more fiat than any of the above. BTC IS fiat!

When the dollar goes to zero, bitcoin goes to infinity; simple physics.

Onvacation says

When the dollar goes to zero, bitcoin goes to infinity; simple physics.

Not sure about that. If society collapses then no one will want to use BTC as much as they want to use the dollar. But yes, I see your point as far as inverse relationship between dollar and BTC.

I wonder what Saylor was thinking about average annual inflation when he said BTC on average will return 30% annually for next 20 years.



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Onvacation says

AD says

hedging against fiat currency

Silver, gold, platinum, guns, ammo and yams; these are all hedges on hyperinflation.

BTC is much more fiat than any of the above. BTC IS fiat!

When the dollar goes to zero, bitcoin goes to infinity; simple physics.

They say you can't eat gold - neither can you eat your bitcoin wallet.

stereotomy says

They say you can't eat gold - neither can you eat your bitcoin wallet.

Lets hope and pray we never get to the point where that concept or rule applies. If we do, then only those who have prepper and homesteading skills will thrive.

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seems like Bitcoin would track with M2 money supply

Onvacation says

My bitcoin is worth $50!!!

Up to $55

I have no problem understanding a 1oz silver coin. But I never understood Bitcoin. Is it a currency?
How so?

The_Deplorable says

I have no problem understanding a 1oz silver coin. But I never understood Bitcoin. Is it a currency?
How so?

People can trade it for goods and services. However, I have seen exactly the same number of people do so as I have seen people use a 1 oz silver coin for such things. That is zero.

Misc says

People can trade it for goods and services. However, I have seen exactly the same number of people do so as I have seen people use a 1 oz silver coin for such things. That is zero.

One big difference between silver/gold and btc is you can toss someone a silver quarter but you can't easily give someone a couple thousand Satoshis. If you can't hold it you don't own it. Bitcoin is not touchable.

Bitcoin as a currency is ridiculous. Silver and gold have been money almost since the concept of money started.

Onvacation says

Silver and gold have been money almost since the concept of money started.

They ain't money now. Try buying groceries with it.

In Arizona you can supposedly pay your State income tax with gold/silver, but I ain't gonna try it. Just a way to get audited for the rest of your life.