patrick.net

Not me, make my last payment next month. The Insurance company just sent us a letter and said they weren't renewing our insurance coverage this year. Which is perfect I'll get it back from escrow.

All of this over an overreaction to a disease.

It’s too bad.

People lost their homes in 2009 because they bought hugely-over-valued homes with little money down, the home values plummeted, and the homeowners decided the value of the home was considerably less than the remaining loan balance and so just strategically defaulted.

The current situation is different. Home prices haven't (yet) crashed 30% or more. So homeowners are generally still above water (home value worth more than remaining loan amount). Why would a bank foreclose right now on someone when that the client is likely to resume paying (with extra penalties) when the jobs return. Banks will foreclose only if the home value is nearing the remaining loan balance.

As for renters: Landlords aren't going to kick out renters if they have nobody to fill the vacancy. Why would a landlord kick out a renter and then leave the place vacant. Better to keep the renter and hope to resume collecting rent when the covid is over. Maybe they could even collect some past-due rent. In fact, wait until the economy pick up and you could get a new renter; use that as leverage to have the current renter pay back rent.

clambo says

All of this over an overreaction to a disease.

It’s too bad.

Crash the economy before Biden takes over. Any improvement will make President Biden look like a hero.

SunnyvaleCA says

Banks will foreclose only if the home value is nearing the remaining loan balance.

Will see how economy fares. It could drag down home prices by at least 25%.

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I can't help wondering if the whole damn thing was designed not to just swing the election, but to try to get us to permanently stay at home, for the good of "the environment".

And then the vaccine may be intended to cause sterility, or early death (oops!).

After all, when you're Gates and Bezos etc, with all that money, what you really want is more of the earth without those pesky plebeians all over it. And you can convince yourself you're saving the planet.

But of course those two also pocked tens of billions each from the sudden demand for virtual shopping and more computers. Win-win!

Will see how economy fares. It could drag down home prices by at least 25%.

What it looks like so far is that prices are falling in the denser cities and prices are increasing in the suburbs. A result of telework opportunities. I wonder if now is the time to buy some rural but beautiful land (waterfront or mountain/valley view) in anticipation of teleworker demand and widespread 5g.

I hate condoms

HeadSet says

Will see how economy fares. It could drag down home prices by at least 25%.

What it looks like so far is that prices are falling in the denser cities and prices are increasing in the suburbs. A result of telework opportunities. I wonder if now is the time to buy some rural but beautiful land (waterfront or mountain/valley view) in anticipation of teleworker

I think late 2011-2014 was the time for that. I waited to buy until Jan 17 and have kicked myself HARD for not accepting the fact I should have bought in the area I eventually did back in 14. Some of the places we looked at have risen in valuation 35-50% now.

Looking back, it's possible to tie in a number of actions that may have been done for the advancement of the Great Reset. The housing bubble triggered by poor/predatory lending and insane amortization periods made sure a large number of people were saddled with massive amounts of debt.

Bailout after bailout ensured the taxpayers were burdened with even more debt to the benefit of banks, large corporations, and foreign governments.

The lock downs pushed people out of jobs so they can no longer service that debt.

End result: bankruptcy and ruination unless you accept the debt reset conditions (slavery) provided by WEF/IMF.

Patrick says

try to get us to permanently stay at home, for the good of "the environment".

don't see why. However, the pandemic crap will make small businesses go under, and everything in visible Universe will be owned by Bezos and his likes, exactly as working man's defenders on the left side of aisle always wanted.

Karloff says

Bailout after bailout ensured the taxpayers were burdened with even more debt to the benefit of banks, large corporations, and foreign governments.

The lock downs pushed people out of jobs so they can no longer service that debt.

Student debt.

Dbr6 says

and everything in visible Universe will be owned by Bezos and his likes, exactly as

THE FOUNDING FATHERS INTENDED!

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When will house prices fall: https://www.fool.com/millionacres/real-estate-market/articles/when-will-home-prices-stop-increasing/

A lot of it is based on price to income ratio (as well as the mortgage interest rate and % of net income going to mortgage+insurance+tax+hoa fee) :

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

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ad says

When will house prices fall: https://www.fool.com/millionacres/real-estate-market/articles/when-will-home-prices-stop-increasing/

A lot of it is based on price to income ratio (as well as the mortgage interest rate and % of net income going to mortgage+insurance+tax+hoa fee) :

I honestly think most people are okay. Most of the job losses have been in jobs that didn't result in a high percentage of home ownership (aka renters), or were spousal jobs to help support the breadwinner of the family. I'm at 8% income to debt payment (PITI). We could work at McD's and still make the payment.

Commercial and residential landlords could be hit pretty hard though. I'm just not seeing it in typical residential real estate, so far at least. Maybe condo markets in big cities after this Covid shit. If suburban markets increase though and cities decrease, it will likely be a break even. Big cities are fucked with Covid though so there's an X factor.

The number of concerts and sporting events in Chicago with an amusement tax of 9.5% on probably a $50 ticket average is staggering. That revenue simply can never be made up. Poof, it's gone. And that's where I think the crisis is. Municipal debt. We'll see. I have a family member (being vague on purpose) that works for a large IL city (not Chicago) and they're telling me it's a blood bath. That's why I'm more active in person with local politics. Hits your checkbook harder than federal if you make under $300k.

Millions of people WILL lose their homes if we allow these Satanic Communist Islamic terrorist promoters to seize control of our Government.

Never bet against the Patriots.

Tenpoundbass says

Millions of people WILL lose their homes if we allow these Satanic Communist Islamic terrorist promoters to seize control of our Government.

Never bet against the Patriots.

What do you mean by "patriots"?

Were they the people that supported the Iraq War or opposed it? Did they support the bombing of Libya or were they against it?

There is a very fuzzy definition of "patriots" today. When I was a kid, I was told they were people that wouldn't give an inch to betray the constitution, and would defend it with their lives. I've never met a "patriot" like that though.

WookieMan says

Most of the job losses have been in jobs that didn't result in a high percentage of home ownership (aka renters), or were spousal jobs to help support the breadwinner of the family. I'm at 8% income to debt payment (PITI). We could work at McD's and still make the payment.

All you make great posts on Patrick . Net. This is good insight again Wookie.

True, as the first jobs that get hard hit are the waitresses, the cooks, etc. Hence, restaurant, amusement parks, resorts, cruise lines, and hotel stocks took a major beating. These are working class stiff jobs. For jobs like that, they quickly get rehired as they get fired. And I agree likely they don't own homes, make major contributions to 401k's, etc.

However, the underlying economics will eventually impact the Apple engineer who works from home (WFH) in his new town and state of Miami Beach, FL. Apple will have to cut back as it sees a major drop in purchase of its products over the 2020 holidays. This may mean less bonus or a cut to the engineer's hours.

The same goes for Facebook as advertisers cut back on advertisement spending on social media as working and middle class cut back on spending.


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