patrick.net

Not me, make my last payment next month. The Insurance company just sent us a letter and said they weren't renewing our insurance coverage this year. Which is perfect I'll get it back from escrow.

All of this over an overreaction to a disease.

It’s too bad.

People lost their homes in 2009 because they bought hugely-over-valued homes with little money down, the home values plummeted, and the homeowners decided the value of the home was considerably less than the remaining loan balance and so just strategically defaulted.

The current situation is different. Home prices haven't (yet) crashed 30% or more. So homeowners are generally still above water (home value worth more than remaining loan amount). Why would a bank foreclose right now on someone when that the client is likely to resume paying (with extra penalties) when the jobs return. Banks will foreclose only if the home value is nearing the remaining loan balance.

As for renters: Landlords aren't going to kick out renters if they have nobody to fill the vacancy. Why would a landlord kick out a renter and then leave the place vacant. Better to keep the renter and hope to resume collecting rent when the covid is over. Maybe they could even collect some past-due rent. In fact, wait until the economy pick up and you could get a new renter; use that as leverage to have the current renter pay back rent.

clambo says

All of this over an overreaction to a disease.

It’s too bad.

Crash the economy before Biden takes over. Any improvement will make President Biden look like a hero.

SunnyvaleCA says

Banks will foreclose only if the home value is nearing the remaining loan balance.

Will see how economy fares. It could drag down home prices by at least 25%.

.

I can't help wondering if the whole damn thing was designed not to just swing the election, but to try to get us to permanently stay at home, for the good of "the environment".

And then the vaccine may be intended to cause sterility, or early death (oops!).

After all, when you're Gates and Bezos etc, with all that money, what you really want is more of the earth without those pesky plebeians all over it. And you can convince yourself you're saving the planet.

But of course those two also pocked tens of billions each from the sudden demand for virtual shopping and more computers. Win-win!

Will see how economy fares. It could drag down home prices by at least 25%.

What it looks like so far is that prices are falling in the denser cities and prices are increasing in the suburbs. A result of telework opportunities. I wonder if now is the time to buy some rural but beautiful land (waterfront or mountain/valley view) in anticipation of teleworker demand and widespread 5g.

I hate condoms

HeadSet says

Will see how economy fares. It could drag down home prices by at least 25%.

What it looks like so far is that prices are falling in the denser cities and prices are increasing in the suburbs. A result of telework opportunities. I wonder if now is the time to buy some rural but beautiful land (waterfront or mountain/valley view) in anticipation of teleworker

I think late 2011-2014 was the time for that. I waited to buy until Jan 17 and have kicked myself HARD for not accepting the fact I should have bought in the area I eventually did back in 14. Some of the places we looked at have risen in valuation 35-50% now.

Looking back, it's possible to tie in a number of actions that may have been done for the advancement of the Great Reset. The housing bubble triggered by poor/predatory lending and insane amortization periods made sure a large number of people were saddled with massive amounts of debt.

Bailout after bailout ensured the taxpayers were burdened with even more debt to the benefit of banks, large corporations, and foreign governments.

The lock downs pushed people out of jobs so they can no longer service that debt.

End result: bankruptcy and ruination unless you accept the debt reset conditions (slavery) provided by WEF/IMF.

Patrick says

try to get us to permanently stay at home, for the good of "the environment".

don't see why. However, the pandemic crap will make small businesses go under, and everything in visible Universe will be owned by Bezos and his likes, exactly as working man's defenders on the left side of aisle always wanted.

Karloff says

Bailout after bailout ensured the taxpayers were burdened with even more debt to the benefit of banks, large corporations, and foreign governments.

The lock downs pushed people out of jobs so they can no longer service that debt.

Student debt.

Dbr6 says

and everything in visible Universe will be owned by Bezos and his likes, exactly as

THE FOUNDING FATHERS INTENDED!

.

When will house prices fall: https://www.fool.com/millionacres/real-estate-market/articles/when-will-home-prices-stop-increasing/

A lot of it is based on price to income ratio (as well as the mortgage interest rate and % of net income going to mortgage+insurance+tax+hoa fee) :

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

.

ad says

When will house prices fall: https://www.fool.com/millionacres/real-estate-market/articles/when-will-home-prices-stop-increasing/

A lot of it is based on price to income ratio (as well as the mortgage interest rate and % of net income going to mortgage+insurance+tax+hoa fee) :

I honestly think most people are okay. Most of the job losses have been in jobs that didn't result in a high percentage of home ownership (aka renters), or were spousal jobs to help support the breadwinner of the family. I'm at 8% income to debt payment (PITI). We could work at McD's and still make the payment.

Commercial and residential landlords could be hit pretty hard though. I'm just not seeing it in typical residential real estate, so far at least. Maybe condo markets in big cities after this Covid shit. If suburban markets increase though and cities decrease, it will likely be a break even. Big cities are fucked with Covid though so there's an X factor.

The number of concerts and sporting events in Chicago with an amusement tax of 9.5% on probably a $50 ticket average is staggering. That revenue simply can never be made up. Poof, it's gone. And that's where I think the crisis is. Municipal debt. We'll see. I have a family member (being vague on purpose) that works for a large IL city (not Chicago) and they're telling me it's a blood bath. That's why I'm more active in person with local politics. Hits your checkbook harder than federal if you make under $300k.

Millions of people WILL lose their homes if we allow these Satanic Communist Islamic terrorist promoters to seize control of our Government.

Never bet against the Patriots.

Tenpoundbass says

Millions of people WILL lose their homes if we allow these Satanic Communist Islamic terrorist promoters to seize control of our Government.

Never bet against the Patriots.

What do you mean by "patriots"?

Were they the people that supported the Iraq War or opposed it? Did they support the bombing of Libya or were they against it?

There is a very fuzzy definition of "patriots" today. When I was a kid, I was told they were people that wouldn't give an inch to betray the constitution, and would defend it with their lives. I've never met a "patriot" like that though.

WookieMan says

Most of the job losses have been in jobs that didn't result in a high percentage of home ownership (aka renters), or were spousal jobs to help support the breadwinner of the family. I'm at 8% income to debt payment (PITI). We could work at McD's and still make the payment.

All you make great posts on Patrick . Net. This is good insight again Wookie.

True, as the first jobs that get hard hit are the waitresses, the cooks, etc. Hence, restaurant, amusement parks, resorts, cruise lines, and hotel stocks took a major beating. These are working class stiff jobs. For jobs like that, they quickly get rehired as they get fired. And I agree likely they don't own homes, make major contributions to 401k's, etc.

However, the underlying economics will eventually impact the Apple engineer who works from home (WFH) in his new town and state of Miami Beach, FL. Apple will have to cut back as it sees a major drop in purchase of its products over the 2020 holidays. This may mean less bonus or a cut to the engineer's hours.

The same goes for Facebook as advertisers cut back on advertisement spending on social media as working and middle class cut back on spending.


.

However, there appears to a V-shaped recovery.

WookieMan says

Poof, it's gone. And that's where I think the crisis is. Municipal debt. We'll see.

Wookie, Illinois is royally fucked. Illinois has a junk bond rating https://illinoiscomptroller.gov/financial-data/fiscal-information/bond-ratings/. Illinois might as well start leasing assets like roads to private companies so they can put up tolls, and open up state forest for companies to come in and remove dead trees for biomass and particle board and engineered-wood construction.

BTW, Florida has the best bond rating at AAA.

That is why Pelosi has been coy about "the COVID bailout" as it is about helping those states like Illinois.

.

ad says

Apple will have to cut back as it sees a major drop in purchase of its products over the 2020 holidays. This may mean less bonus or a cut to the engineer's hours.

I think the time horizon for Apple downturn is at least an additional year out. During the cower-in-place, Apple has had it's strongest quarter ever for Mac sales and a considerable rebound in iPad sales. The new crop of iPhones are probably part of an upgrade "super cycle" and didn't ship until the holiday quarter (usually ship September) so the 2020 holiday quarter is likely to be the best iPhone quarter ever by a considerable margin.

Worried about retail stores being closed? Apple has a huge advantage here. There are dozens of different Android phones by several different manufacturers. Some are great phones, some aren't; some work better for some people than for other people; who knows which accessories work with which, etc. Which one are you going to buy sight-unseen? Or, you could go shopping online for an iPhone ... simple: would you like small, medium, or large? Done.

Apple just released a new watch that'll be an easy gift you can buy online (or return to Apple by mail if you really don't like it). Have a 3 or 4 year old Apple watch? Buying the new one sight-unseen is a pretty easy decision.

And have you played with the new Apple Silicon Mac's? For casual users of smallish laptops, these new ones are quite a revelation: thin, light, silent, cool, fast, and really do go all day on a single charge. And, just like with a phone, shopping online for the Apple product is much easier than shopping online among any of the many dozens of alternate offerings.

Apple's stock price has zoomed in the last year and people are worried that the P/E is at historical highs. My thinking is that Apple's increased sales/revenue/profits will grow into that new stock price and bring the P/E way down.

ad says

.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millions-americans-expect-lose-homes-212124538.html

.

Right, the raging pandemic that has killed 257,016 (officially at the time I write this) out of a country of 300 million people. Why, this super deadly "disease" has killed full 0.0778% of the population. Wow, that's almost 1 out of 1000 people!!

Oh, and the average age of a victim that died form it? That's 75, 3 years old than the life expectancy of 72.

ad says

.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millions-americans-expect-lose-homes-212124538.html

.

Right, the raging pandemic that has killed 257,016 (officially at the time I write this) out of a country of 330 million people. Why, this super deadly "disease" has killed full 0.0778% of the population. Wow, that's almost 1 out of 1000 people!!

Oh, and the average age of a victim that died form it? That's 75, 3 years old than the life expectancy of 72.

richwicks says

Were they the people that supported the Iraq War or opposed it? Did they support the bombing of Libya or were they against it?

Hey, Bush can suck both of our Dicks, now what else do you want from me?

Tenpoundbass says

richwicks says

Were they the people that supported the Iraq War or opposed it? Did they support the bombing of Libya or were they against it?

Hey, Bush can suck both of our Dicks, now what else do you want from me?

I'm just lamenting the fact that there are precious few "patriots". There wasn't any difference between Obama and Bush.

I'm pointing out there is no possibility of changing our government through any legal means. We will have to have a literal revolution to fix this nation. Nobody in our upper levels of government will EVER go to jail, unless there's a literal revolution.

And there are no patriots. So, there will be no revolution. People don't even dare to complain about the situation or are entirely unaware of the situation. Your kids are going to be slaves, nearly everybody's kids will be slaves.

richwicks says

Right, the raging pandemic that has killed 257,016 (officially at the time I write this) out of a country of 300 million people. Why, this super deadly "disease" has killed full 0.0778% of the population. Wow, that's almost 1 out of 1000 people!!

Oh, and the average age of a victim that died form it? That's 75, 3 years old than the life expectancy of 72.

Yep. Stupidest pandemic ever. Most people tolerate this killer disease without issues. Some very unhealthy and/or very old people die from it.
So let’s eliminate everyone’s freedom and businesses and jobs and housing in a futile attempt to “stop” the virus!

Of course most of the oldsters are good with this stupid stupid plan because they don’t need to work and it keeps the grandkids from coming over. Also these are narcissistic assholes who would make the world a better place by leaving it.

it keeps the grandkids from coming over.

I do not know any people who are grandparents who do not want to see the grandkids. No saying some do not want to see them, but I think it is odd.

HeadSet says

I do not know any people who are grandparents who do not want to see the grandkids. No saying some do not want to see them, but I think it is odd.

It happens.

SunnyvaleCA says

And have you played with the new Apple Silicon Mac

Got one and looks so cool with the new processors, it can handle more load than the old ones. It comes with integrated AI and graphics processors along with new ARM processor. It could boot more profits.

Trump might change the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before leaving. I really want these vacuum cleaners away from accessing government resources.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

WHY DO YOU HATE SUCCESS?

SHUTDOWNS MUST CONTINUE SO BEZOS CAN OWN EVERY SINGLE ATOM IN UNIVERSE!

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

AND EXPLOIT EVERY LAST ATOM IN THE UNIVERSE TO MAXIMAL PROFIT SO HE CAN EAT GOD'S FACE!, exactly as the Founding Fathers commanded.

While mining another TRILLION BEZOSCOINS DIGITAL CRYPTOCURRENCY AND machine-gunning few thousands of commoner slaves for fun!

Shaman says

Yep. Stupidest pandemic ever. Most people tolerate this killer disease without issues. Some very unhealthy and/or very old people die from it.
So let’s eliminate everyone’s freedom and businesses and jobs and housing in a futile attempt to “stop” the virus!

FuckCCP89 says

HeadSet says

I do not know any people who are grandparents who do not want to see the grandkids. No saying some do not want to see them, but I think it is odd.

It happens.

Happens way more than you think as CCP says. Sometimes it's the parents keeping the grandkids away and other times it's the grandparents only doing token holiday visits and that's it.

I'll put it this way without going into detail, my MIL is not fit to watch my kids or be around them. So we avoid her at all cost. She's not allowed to watch our kids overnight. Some families are tight, or look tight from the outside looking in. Most aren't.

Patrick says

I can't help wondering if the whole damn thing was designed not to just swing the election, but to try to get us to permanently stay at home, for the good of "the environment".

Are you just figuring out this now???

TrumpingTits says

ad says

That is why Pelosi has been coy about "the COVID bailout" as it is about helping those states like Illinois

90% of that problem is unfunded pension debts.

It mostly is pensions for sure. The lost revenue from use taxes is huuuuuuuuuuuge though. Sales, amusement, airport landing fees, port fees, gas taxes, etc. and in many cases income taxes for the states that have that shit. Much of this stuff has been at 25% of revenue generation for 4-5 months minimum. Income taxes will likely be down 5-10% in most states that have them.

The use taxes are the worst though. They cannot be made up. Muni's budgeted for X, Y and Z and X may have gone to zero in the case of amusement taxes. No sports, concerts or large gatherings. Toll roads budgeted that a certain number of cars would come through and it fell off to nothing practically at the beginning.

The key question is are layoffs the answer or increasing fees? Both would suck, but I predict taxes, fees are going up here soon in a lot of places. Especially if we stay closed down to some extent.

90% of that problem is unfunded pension debts.

The real impetus behind "Defund the police?"

Dbr6 says

Patrick says

try to get us to permanently stay at home, for the good of "the environment".

don't see why.

You see, when plebeians move around by car, train, bus, or plane, they pollute Jeff Bezos' personal planet.

Also, the plebeians breathe too much, expelling carbon dioxide with every breath. Plebeian breathing must be stopped. A "vaccine" seems likely to help with that.