patrick.net

mell says

I did the math for you in the answer above. You should be able to compute the real risk given seroprevalence and not hospitalized patients.

no computation necessary, nor hospitalization rate. since the population count is the same for either statistic, you can just look at a raw count. 29 vaccine deaths 18-29
2125 covid deaths. with 100 million vaccinated, only up to 3-5x more people in the 18-24 range can even get vaccinations. at this rate that would only be 150 deaths vs over 2000. you're fucking ridiculous and cant do basic arithmetic, and call other people who can liars.

ThreeBays says

CDC already splits covid from flu and pneumonia. The latter two were not insignificant last year.

US Flu deaths for 2018-2019 Flu Season ~ 34,000
US Flu deaths for 2019 - 2020 Flu season ~ 22,0000
US Flu Deaths for 2020 - 2021 Flu Season ~ 600

Looking at those numbers, you seriously think the Covid death count does not include Flu deaths?

assume covid deaths are overinflated by double. the vaccine still lowers the risk of dying 50x for every age range

Zak says

mell says

I did the math for you in the answer above. You should be able to compute the real risk given seroprevalence and not hospitalized patients.

no computation necessary, nor hospitalization rate. since the population count is the same for either statistic, you can just look at a raw count. 29 vaccine deaths 18-29
2125 covid deaths. with 100 million vaccinated, only up to 3-5x more people in the 18-24 range can even get vaccinations. at this rate that would only be 150 deaths vs over 2000. you're fucking ridiculous and cant do basic arithmetic, and call other people who can liars.

If you don't want to understand basic math and instead stoop to insults I can't help you. Literally nobody age 18-24 has been vaccinated, if you vaccinated all of them the deaths would far outpace the deaths among the 40%-80% who have already contracted Covid. I did the math above and it's pretty clear, the risk of catching covid and dying from it is not existent for age 18-24. The risk from the jab is still "little" but much higher.

HeadSet says

ThreeBays says

CDC already splits covid from flu and pneumonia. The latter two were not insignificant last year.

US Flu deaths for 2018-2019 Flu Season ~ 34,000
US Flu deaths for 2019 - 2020 Flu season ~ 22,0000
US Flu Deaths for 2020 - 2021 Flu Season ~ 600

Looking at those numbers, you seriously think the Covid death count does not include Flu deaths?

Of course it includes almost all flu deaths as covid deaths as presumption is enough. People were not tested for anything else than covid or bot at all and the presumption was made. It's not necessarily always wrong to presume under high load/stress (although it came with financial incentives) if the treatment is similar but you can't use these numbers to do math with it.

personal

Zak says

assume covid deaths are overinflated by double. the vaccine still lowers the risk of dying 50x for every age range

Where did that 50x come from? I see the discussion where one compares the risk of Covid vs the risk of the jab. Are you assuming that getting the jab is 100% effective in preventing Covid? Once you get the jab it is impossible to die of Covid? I am presently in Omaha visiting in-laws. The local paper today had an article about a local nursing home that has 29 cases of Covid - despite all the residents having been vaccinated. Also, it is not just about immediately dying from the jab. What about the long term effects?

There is no way that a healthy person with virtually no chance of dying from Covid should take a jab that does carry a very small risk of death, a risk of immediate side effects, plus an unknown long term risk.

mell says

If you don't want to understand basic math and instead stoop to insults I can't help you.

Let's get some more facts straight. If you want to dispute data, and argue validity of numbers, that's firmly in the professional discourse realm. You call me a liar while you tell me that 29 is a bigger number that 2000, and I'll call you a stupid wrong fuck right to your face. You started it not me.

HeadSet says

Zak says

assume covid deaths are overinflated by double. the vaccine still lowers the risk of dying 50x for every age range

Where did that 50x come from? I see the discussion where one compares the risk of Covid vs the risk of the jab. Are you assuming that getting the jab is 100% effective in preventing Covid? Once you get the jab it is impossible to die of Covid? I am presently in Omaha visiting in-laws. The local paper today had an article about a local nursing home that has 29 cases of Covid - despite all the residents having been vaccinated. Also, it is not just about immediately dying from the jab. What about the long term effects?

There is no way that a healthy person with virtually no chance of dying from Covid should take a jab that does carry a very small risk of death, a risk of immediate side effects, plus an unknown long term risk.

Yes that math is wrong. We didn't even go into calculating the effectiveness of the vaccine and instead took 2k deaths "with covid" (pcr test within 28 days or presumed without test) as face value for dying of covid. Also keep in mind that most of those had underlying health conditions for which a vaccine may be appropriate. But for those young and healthy the risk of serious events from covid is so low that a guaranteed jab would expose then to a higher risk. Targeted vaccination for a small subset is the way to go.

Zak says

Also note, mell does not dispute the 29 number for VAERS .. It's SO FUCKING CRIMINAL that 29 people died! despite if it saved even 1/10th of those that died of covid it would still be 10x better than getting covid...

yup TERRIBLE vaccine. you fucking simpleton..

It becomes criminal when it becomes compulsory for education, extra-curricular activities, to work, and to travel. Not having the choice to opt out and being essentially forced to take something in order to continue living your life as it has been is what is criminal. No test with 99.999% certainty of proving patient compatibility with the experimental biological agent without adverse side effects or death? No JAB!

HeadSet says

Where did that 50x come from?

yeah it comes from death rates. some people dispute that over 2000 people in the 18-29 range have died due to reporting errors, or dying of something else while infected with covid for example. I don't really buy this, but to give that argument the benefit of the doubt, assume it is true for a moment, and that covid rates are overreported by something stupid like 2x. So instead of 2000 dead, it's only 1000 for example. In this case, we have 29 deaths vs 1000 deaths.. still a ridiculous multiplier (ok maybe 30x instead of 50x or something). Nobody is disputing that 29 people in the 18-29 range have died from the vaccine. It's sad, but it's like 30x less sad than all the people that would have died from covid.

ForcedTQ says

It becomes criminal when it becomes compulsory for education, extra-curricular activities, to work, and to travel. Not having the choice to opt out and being essentially forced to take something in order to continue living your life as it has been is what is criminal.

Ok..look I'm reasonable. I absolutely said I don't think the vaccine should be compulsory by law for governmental purposes. I temper that by saying it is 100% acceptable for private business to take some reasonable measures to prevent the spread of a highly communicable disease among their workforce and potential other customers. For instance, enforcing that customers/employees wear a mask during the time the virus is highly prevalent. Temperature checks seem reasonable. However vaccine cards do not, in the same way disclosing HIV status does not.

I 100% don't understand school vaccination requirements. If the vaccine works, and you send your kids to school vaccinated, then they should be protected against other kids who didn't get the vaccination, with a high level of effectiveness. I mean, I feel sorry for a kid if their idiot parent won't get them the polio vaccine, but that's part of a free country, and punishing the kid worse by denying them an education seems more idiotic than the anti vax parents. If your kid has a "special need" that they need safety from anti vaxers.. I'm sorry, but the safety of that 1 kid against a possible risk is on the parent to mitigate.. not on the school..

Zak says

To me, we can go the way of polio and kill this thing off,

So you think the cure to the common cold is THIS vaccine? Or is THIS virus laboratory made and so dangerous that we must stamp it out of existence? Some third choice?

Zak says

It's sad, but it's like 30x less sad than all the people that would have died from covid.

I am not concerned with the exact numbers so much, just the logic before you punched the calculator. You are assuming the jab is like the Polio Vaccine. One shot of Polio Vaccine stops a person from ever getting polio. Unfortunately, the jab does not prevent one from getting Covid. Therefore, it is a logic flaw to say a particular control group had 100 deaths from Covid but only 10 deaths from the jab, so the jab is 10x safer. Nor can you say that the jab saved anyone from getting or dying from Covid.

Zak says

mell says

If you don't want to understand basic math and instead stoop to insults I can't help you.

Let's get some more facts straight. If you want to dispute data, and argue validity of numbers, that's firmly in the professional discourse realm. You call me a liar while you tell me that 29 is a bigger number that 2000, and I'll call you a stupid wrong fuck right to your face. You started it not me.

If you want to get technical you started when I mentioned coercing minors and you brought up stats for 18-29. I explained my math on that and more - almost all have underlying health conditions which skews the risk for a healthy person to a way too high number, plus many with underlying conditions don't qualify to get vaccinated in the first place - but that aside since when is a minor over 18? People 18-29 can make their own decisions by law for almost anything, but minors are 0-17 and should never be forced to take the vaccine and thus increase their risk of serious events vs naturally taking on covid.

ThreeBays says

Let's not forget the covid numbers are further stacked against you if you're a male.

and fat or unhealthy.

Onvacation says

So you think the cure to the common cold is THIS vaccine?

No. We find ourselves fortunate enough, that this particular strain and slightly mutated strains that are succeptible to prevention by the vaccine could actually be wiped out entirely in the way polio was. Lots of people are very wary about this vaccine. The data I have seen seems to show that it is pretty durned safe, yet there is a lot of messaging counter to that. Even right here on Patnet, people like mell try to call out very straightforward data that shows it is about 100x safer to get the vaccine than to get Covid, and call people that illustrate this simple fact liar. That is a tall order to fight against . Covid in no way is the same disaster as polio, but we do have a similar opportunity to make the world just a bit better, and a bit safer. And we can do it with a 100x lower risk than just letting people get covid.

So to be transparent and honest when discussing the vaccine, it's relatively important to own the real risks from the covid vaccine. People really do die from it. But again, it is 100x worse to just let it run free amongst the population without at least calling out the ahem errenous statements like mell makes. I think that with 140 million vaccinated currently, and probably a good chunk more already immune from infection, known or unknown we're probably getting close to this thing getting strangled out.

So, if I call out bullshit a bit more strongly, it's not because I think i am saving the world or something.. Covid is really not polio terrible, but it is 500k old and unhealthy people dead terrible, which is still pretty bad. It makes me sad we couldn't have gotten vaccine over into India faster, because I bet their population is actually going to have a few million dead due to this. And really, all these conspiracy claims do serve to distract from that kind of unified front to go bring this around the world. That's sad, and I think its worth calling out the bullshit over.

Zak says

Onvacation says

@Zak

When do you think the pandemic will end?

I actually think we are getting pretty close to only having a low background level of cases.

I don't believe the "pandemic" will ever end.

The shutdowns are being done for other reasons, not to prevent the spread of what is quite obviously (to me at least) a minor disease.

It will be September and we'll still be bombarded with propaganda about how we're all about to die. This pandemic only ends when people demand that it ends.

The problem is getting people to realize how viciously the power structure that runs our government deceives us. That's the struggle.

mell says

I explained my math on that and more - almost all have underlying health conditions which skews the risk for a healthy person to a way too high number,

Don't talk mealy mouthed out the side of your face. Are you saying the 29 that died from the vaccine were all perfectly healthy and had no medical condition? Are you actually claiming to fucking know that!?!? And on top of that, you're saying those 29 people absolutely would not have died from the virus!?!?

Here.. try it out.. "Sorry for calling you a liar. You make a good point, and the data shows I was wrong"

Its pretty easy, and you can stop defending a wrong position on top of it.

In 500 days we went from 2 weeks to flatten the curve to 70% jabbed with the experimental biologic agent and you don't have to wear a mask outdoors any more.

And as soon as they reach that goal they will have to wait until the early adopters get their "update" jabs.

16-YEAR-OLD GIRL DEAD AFTER VACC!NE

The systematic poisoning of the human race.

richwicks says

what is quite obviously (to me at least) a minor disease.

I mean, 500k people dead. I get that a bunch of them were old and had other conditions.. But fuck, thats a pretty dismissive blow off of half a million people? I mean, lots of doctors have fucking worked their asses off fighting this.

Yeah, the governmental response was shit, but it's a pretty far stretch to pretend this was all just made up or something. I 100% agree with you that we need to reign in out of control politicians. And as far as pandemic strecthing and restrictions.. Just fucking ignore them (but still respect private property rights if a business doesn't want you maskless)

But if your employer tells you they need a vaccination record tell them to fire you and then sue them.

Onvacation says

16-YEAR-OLD GIRL DEAD AFTER VACC!NE

Yeah it's sad, right Onvacation. There's a couple hundred more like that one for the vaccine across all ages. Unfortunately there are over 100x more of these sad stories because of covid in every single age range.

ThreeBays says

Trump really was a douchebag

And there you have it. The real reason for the pandemic. Too many people hated Trump more than they loved America. They were, are, willing to let our economy and culture deteriorate because orange man bad.

Does Biden really think that most Americans wear masks?

ThreeBays says

Yeah, Trump really was a douchebag downplaying this thing

I actually kind of disagree with this. I think we should have had less lockdowns and remained calm with regard to the economy and especially shutting down small business. The R value transmission rate was so high all we could really do was flatten the curve.. which we did back in 2020, and we should have remained calm and left it at that. Now we have a fucked economy with tons of inflation that went to all the rich motherfucking bankers. We are pretty fucked, we just don't know it yet. Sorry for all the foul language tonight. I really dislike bullshitters calling me a liar.

Onvacation says

and fat or unhealthy.

You have to be very old, or very unhealthy, or very, very, unlucky to die of Corona virus.
I lose more respect for the frantic ninnies in this country daily.
There is a higher likelihood of being killed by an alligator on the golf course if you are under 60.

"Among 121 SARS-CoV-2–associated deaths reported to CDC among persons aged <21 years in the United States during February 12–July 31, 2020, 63% occurred in males, 10% of decedents were aged <1 year, 20% were aged 1–9 years, 70% were aged 10–20 years, 45% were Hispanic persons, 29% were non-Hispanic Black (Black) persons, and 4% were non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) persons. Among these 121 decedents, 91 (75%) had an underlying medical condition,* 79"

This is for 0-21, but the percentage of those with underlying conditions for young adults til age 25 at least if not 30 are probably the same, around 75%. That would cut deaths among "healthy" to 1/4, or 500. 2018 around 70 in 100k adults aged 18-29 died that year, or 14k in 20MM population. So if you track deaths over a year or even longer like it's done for Covid (18 months), around 20k ages 18-29 will die during that time frame of all cases combined. How many with the vaccine? A lot. How many of those where the vaccine is suspected to be at least contributing? Very few but possibly enough to make the.vaccination proposal already moot. Worse as Covid has receded due to natural herd immunity acquired from covid and previous CV infections even completely without vaccinations deaths will be less than 10% of 2020. So those 2000 total or 500 deaths of healthy people will turn into 200 (total) or 50 (healthy) deaths with covid in 2021/2022 per year in the young adult age group, so where's the value proposal here? I remain that it's unethical to coerce young and healthy people, esp. minors.

Zak says

I really dislike bullshitters calling me a liar.

Fuck it. Once again nothing got resolved.

One side thinks it is a deadly killer that warrants every man woman and child ultimately be forced to take the jab and wear a mask to protect their fellow man, and the other side thinks it is a bad cold at worse and doesn't want their rights and freedoms trampled on like they have been for the last year.

Science means open public debate not censorship of anything not matching the official narrative.

One side thinks it is a deadly killer that warrants every man woman and child ultimately be forced to take the jab

can you stop with that? I keep saying over and over it should be a choice. over and over and over. I mean I get that others don't, but how about conversing with people here, rather than fictional others out there?

So if that's the case, isn't there more than just one side or the other? This team against that? Can't it be that we all work together to best figure out how to fight a terrible disease, and have a discourse and debate to pick the best ideas of how we think we should address this thing? And also not trample people's rights?

Onvacation says

Fuck it. Once again nothing got resolved.

oh i think it's pretty clear that it got resolved. The facts show that the vaccine lowers deaths about 100x across all age ranges. The only thing not resolved is an apology from mell to say sorry for calling me a liar when I put up simple data and math that showed he was wrong.

Zak says

Can't it be that we all work together to best figure out how to fight a terrible disease

We can't even agree that the Wuhan is a terrible disease.

Zak says

how to fight a terrible disease

Terrible disease. This thing kills 1 in 400 and they likely have multiple contributing factors. God help us if something like Small Pox ever arrives, with a 30 to 90% mortality rate.

Onvacation says

Zak says

I really dislike bullshitters calling me a liar.

Fuck it. Once again nothing got resolved.

One side thinks it is a deadly killer that warrants every man woman and child ultimately be forced to take the jab and wear a mask to protect their fellow man, and the other side thinks it is a bad cold at worse and doesn't want their rights and freedoms trampled on like they have been for the last year.

Science means open public debate not censorship of anything not matching the official narrative.

@zak didn't call you a liar, but I consider the narrative a lie for the reasons and numbers mentioned. The fatality rate for kids is pretty much zero. They are only required to have measles vaccine (0.2% fatality rate) and a few others to attend public and private school in some states, but not for others, not the flu which is much much more dangerous than covid for kids, so why should we force an experimental covid vaccine, or any covid vaccine on them? We shouldn't.

mell says

@zak didn't call you a liar,

When someone makes a statement and you say "that's a lie" you're calling them a liar. Go ahead and apologize when you feel ready.

If you disagreed with the numbers you would say "I disagree with those numbers".

When they then give you the numbers that show the reason you are "disagreeing with the numbers" is incorrect, then you:
1) apologize for calling them a liar
2) admit that you were wrong about the data

If your mammy didn't teach you, then I will. this is how we behave when we are adults.

What we don't do is what my 5 year old does "I didn't do that"
Own your behavior and admit when you are wrong. You will be surprised that people are quick to forgive and forget when you show integrity.

Zak says

Onvacation says

Fuck it. Once again nothing got resolved.

oh i think it's pretty clear that it got resolved. The facts show that the vaccine lowers deaths about 100x across all age ranges. The only thing not resolved is an apology from mell to say sorry for calling me a liar when I put up simple data and math that showed he was wrong.

Your math is not calculating the risks from both properly imo. I gave my calculations and reasoning behind them. If you don't want to delve into statistics and probability then your calculation is ok with me. It just doesn't reflect the risk, esp. not going forward now that we achieved herd immunity for decades, not via antibodies, but t cell immunity from infections. No matter, even if you forced every single person to get jabbed, it will go endemic and become a seasonal cold/flu from now on. With similar risk profile as a cold or flu.

ThreeBays says

sacrificing the old

That is who has died. The median age of death has been 83. In other words, folks who were fixing to die anyway.

Zak says

richwicks says

what is quite obviously (to me at least) a minor disease.

I mean, 500k people dead. I get that a bunch of them were old and had other conditions.. But fuck, thats a pretty dismissive blow off of half a million people?

No, it's not.

There's 330,000,000 people in the United States, approximately. If the AVERAGE longevity was 80 (and it's not, it's less than that), every year, 330,000,000/80 people die. That's 4,125,000.

supposedly 1/2 million people died of sars-cov2-19 - but there were financial incentives for both doctors and beneficiaries to assign the cause of death to sars-cov2-19.

Zak says

Yeah, the governmental response was shit, but it's a pretty far stretch to pretend this was all just made up or something.

Really? Find that weapons of mass destruction program in Iraq yet? Where's that Russian Collusion? Did the United States "stop the humanitarian crisis that Qaddafi was about to cause" by bombing Libya and leaving it in civil war with operating slavery markets?

They lie constantly. You're still in the zone thinking SOMEBODY with some power or authority or notoriety will call them out.

I'm calling them out. It's frighteningly easy to be brainwashed and we're all subject to it, including me.

I suspect this was nothing more than a cover to bailout banks, support businesses that went along to get along with government, and to crush independent businesses and to single people like me out. I had family that escaped Poland just before the Nazi invasion. I have the "I smell a rat" gene in my DNA. We're not being told the truth, that I know for certain.

Our government is no different than any other group of sociopathic assholes in another government.

You gave some numbers mell says

How many with the vaccine? A lot.

Sorry, no. The number is 29. "A lot" is not a statistic that you compare against.
2125 people in the age range 18-29 died of covid.
29 people have died of the vaccine. Now you can throw out all kinds of other math that you think is right, but if it doesn't reconcile to these numbers, you've made a mistake.

And I'm not talking off by 1 or something. This is a factor of 100x . two orders of magnitude. You already showed you are working with bad data when you said almost none of the 18-29 population is vaccinated. I gave you the link that shows they are vaccinated at similar rates to the general population.

This is how we do science. We post sources and data so we can verify it. We TRY to give people the opportunity to show us how we are WRONG. We don't try to argue without statistics for a position that has been shown to be incorrect. We say "huh, that's strange, I wonder how these calculations I did gave me a number that doesn't agree with the rest of the data consistently."

And when people point out our mistakes we don't call them liars. If we still think we are right, we should be able to show it in simpler and simpler forms, not more and more complicated ones.

These should all be hints to you that you are very fucking wrong.

Zak says

mell says

@zak didn't call you a liar,

When someone makes a statement and you say "that's a lie" you're calling them a liar. Go ahead and apologize when you feel ready.

If you disagreed with the numbers you would say "I disagree with those numbers".

When they then give you the numbers that show the reason you are "disagreeing with the numbers" is incorrect, then you:
1) apologize for calling them a liar
2) admit that you were wrong about the data

If your mammy didn't teach you, then I will. this is how we behave when we are adults.

What we don't do is what my 5 year old does "I didn't do that"
Own your behavior and admit when you are wrong. You will be surprised that people are quick to forgive and forget when you show integrity.

Alright I tried. You don't want to do follow any calculations, you just claim the numbers were contested which they weren't, the calculation and conclusion was. For example what part of the vaers DB only tracks deaths following a few days after the jab vs covid-related (incl. pcr tests and presumed without test) deaths were tracked over 18 months is so hard to understand? Or what part of 75% have underlying health conditions, so the risk for a healthy person is much lower is so hard to follow or model? Or going forward there won't be 2k deaths for that age group, just a fraction of that number, but the risk from the vaccine should hold steady unless it's modified? At least the personal choice is something we all can agree on as minimal common ground.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=242255