patrick.net

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2023/03/29/s-f-office-vacancy-increases-first-quarter.html?ana=e_fr_BN&j=34324022&senddate=2024-02-12

San Francisco experienced historic office vacancy and a major uptick in subleases in the early months of 2023, a testament to the office market's struggle to recover amid a wave of tech layoffs and the normalization of remote work.

The space recorded as vacant in the first quarter spiked to 29.5%, up nearly 2 percentage points from the end of last year and nearly 10 points from a year ago, according to real estate firm CBRE.

At 26.6 million square feet, there's more than eights times as much vacant office space as there was in early 2019 before the pandemic, when the city's office vacancy rate was in the low single digits. Believe it or not, that's enough to fill 18 Salesforce Towers.

Patrick says

The space recorded as vacant in the first quarter spiked to 29.5%, up nearly 2 percentage points from the end of last year and nearly 10 points from a year ago, according to real estate firm CBRE.

Return to the office has already been ongoing for at least 12 months, yet San Francisco commercial real estate's vacancy rate is at 29.5%.

Unless there are changes to the city and it attracts new business growth, Its likely not going to drop below 25% for many years.

White liberal billionaires and the Blackrock's may buy up cheap commercial RE in San Fran, and then force a positive change within the local government which will lead to increases in property values.

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AD says

White liberal billionaires and the Blackrock's may buy up cheap commercial RE in San Fran, and then force a positive change within the local government which will lead to increases in property values.

Yes, while cutting in those local officials with a piece of the action. Once you see bulk buying, you'll know the fix is in.

https://www.leefang.com/p/inside-the-far-left-billionaires

Inside the Far Left Billionaires' Push to Maintain Control of San Francisco ...

Supervisor Dean Preston, who has used his perch on the city council to push for abolishing prisons and police, seized upon the news to claim that it confirms a “right wing takeover” of San Francisco. Preston, who is facing reelection, promised to “fight back” against “dystopian conservatives.”

Yet the groups and individuals named as conservative donors, like Michael Moritz and Garry Tan, are virtually all Democratic moderates with a history of donating to liberal causes. The issues these donors have zeroed in on are traditionally associated with political moderates, like restoring algebra to public middle school – the classes were removed by city leftists for racial equity reasons – hiring more police officers in the midst of a crime wave and street addiction crisis, and encouraging new construction to bring down the price of housing.

What’s more, beyond the absurdity of painting these mainstream goals as some type of fascist plot, the subtext of the trio of news articles is the false assumption that big money only flows to the moderates. In reality, the city’s hard left wildly benefits from millions of dollars from its own faction of wealthy donors – many of whom are slum lords and heirs of family wealth who have radically transformed San Francisco with years of advocacy and electioneering.

https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/14/san-francisco-mayor-london-breed-chamber-commerce/

A Chamber of Commerce survey found that 72% of voters believe that the city is on the wrong track, compared with only 22% who said the opposite. The number was slightly improved from the 77% figure in the Chamber’s survey back in May, but still a far cry from the 46% who believed the arrow was pointed downward in 2019.

Why do they keep voting for the Democrats who destroyed San Francisco?

HeadSet says

AD says

White liberal billionaires and the Blackrock's may buy up cheap commercial RE in San Fran, and then force a positive change within the local government which will lead to increases in property values.

Yes, while cutting in those local officials with a piece of the action. Once you see bulk buying, you'll know the fix is in.

Yes, I see that in Bay County, Florida with local elected officials getting in on the action.

One way is that they become home builders and "partner" with the largest land owner in the county, which is St Joe corporation (ticker: JOE).

This is the more "legal" way to get rich without envelops of cash and gift cards or "no show jobs for family members" (think Dragon Lady's (or Darlene Druyun's) daughter with Boeing).

Everybody wants their piece of the pie, HeadSet.

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https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/18/san-francisco-schools-algebra/

We can’t trust SFUSD to reinstate eighth-grade algebra. Voters must weigh in
San Francisco’s school board meant well when it dropped eighth-grade algebra. But students have fled, and the district should learn its lesson.

... Yet in San Francisco, Algebra 1 has not been offered until ninth grade for the past decade. Our public schools stopped letting eighth graders take algebra in 2014 because of concerns about a racial gap in algebra completion rates.

It was a well-intentioned policy. The goal was to stop segmenting kids based on ability and keep all students together until everyone was prepared to take advanced math classes.

But the policy failed. A study by Stanford University showed the policy didn’t help kids who were behind in math. It only held back kids who love math. And we lost many of those kids when their parents pulled them out of public school.

We have a tale of two school systems in San Francisco. Nearly a third of our kids attend private school, compared with only 10% statewide, according to Private School Review. A policy against eighth-grade algebra is a big factor when families decide to leave public schools when their child reaches middle school.

Patrick says

We can’t trust SFUSD to reinstate eighth-grade algebra.

Seriously? I thought that in a high-tech area 8th grade algebra would be "remedial math."

>Patrick says

It was a well-intentioned policy. The goal was to stop segmenting kids based on ability and keep all students together until everyone was prepared to take advanced math classes.

Oh, BS! We do not need more average to low performing kids. We need programs to allow the gifted and high achievers to excel. Every school should have an active gifted program so we can educate the future innovators.

Patrick says

A policy against eighth-grade algebra is a big factor when families decide to leave public schools when their child reaches middle school.

w+b= conked over the head by a feral. That's a tad of motivation, too.

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2024/02/27/macys-closing-union-square-flagship.html

Macy's to close historic San Francisco flagship in Union Square

Macy's plans to close its massive 700,000-square-foot flagship store in Union Square, drawing an end to a presence of nearly a century in the heart of San Francisco.

The downtown Macy's has been earmarked as one of 150 underperforming stores the company plans to cut around the country, a source with knowledge of the company's plans told the Business Times. Per the source with detailed knowledge, Macy's will keep the location at 170 O'Farrell St. open until a buyer can be found for the real estate. Ultimately the move will impact about 500 jobs tied to the Macy's flagship.

The impending closure promises to be yet another significant blow to San Francisco's downtown retail footprint, following the closures of major stores such as Nordstrom anchor in the former Westfield San Francisco Center (now, in receivership under its new owners, the San Francisco Center) as well as Coco Republic, CB2, and Jeffrey's Toys within the last year. ...

AD says

White liberal billionaires and the Blackrock's may buy up cheap commercial RE in San Fran, and then force a positive change within the local government which will lead to increases in property values.

Yes, it's an old scam. The government is part of the mafia. The purpose make a place unlivable, force people out, then they profit off from it when they do their fucking job.

Now, if the victims being fucked by the asshole criminals just strung them up in the streets a few times, it wouldn't happen.

Breed is learning to "Lie Like Biden". It is so, because I lie it so.

Patrick says

Babylon Bee pussed out here by making the looter character White. Very white, to make sure nobody mistook it for Hispanic.

HeadSet says

That is true for universal suffrage. It would be a different story if voting was limited to net tax payers. That is, only people who pay more in than they consume are allowed to vote. That would remove military members, government workers, defense industry contactors, welfare recipients, and SS retirees from the voter rolls.

I know I've commented on this before and this is an older comment. Weighted voting. Base it on the digits of your tax returns. Paid $40k for 2023. I get 5 votes. So does my wife. Pay no taxes you get 1. Wealthy person that pays zero you get one vote. This is the best way to boost the middle class in my opinion.

The other thing is skip voter ID. It should be tax ID. If you didn't file, you don't get to vote. Knocks out illegals in the process. I'd be racist though and the rich and illegals would hate me if it was proposed. It should be.

WookieMan says

out illegals in the process.

Many illegals use real tax ids of actual citizens.

Anyway, system used to basically be this way. Except not based upon income as that wasn’t taxed, but property/business ownership which was.

https://sfstandard.com/2024/03/04/paramount-group-downtown-trophy-buildings-in-trouble/

Bought for $949M, 2 San Francisco offices have been marked down to zero ...

The owner of two iconic San Francisco office properties is likely to give them up as major tenants pull out and the final due date for debt payments draws nearer, according to an earnings call with the New York real estate firm the Paramount Group.

One of the properties is known as the Market Center, a 770,000-square-foot brutalist office complex split across two buildings at 555 and 575 Market St. in the middle of the Financial District. The complex used to serve as the headquarters for Standard Oil and Chevron.

The other is a neo-gothic structure a block away at 111 Sutter St. that was the fictional address of private detective Sam Spade’s office in the noir novel The Maltese Falcon, which in 1941 was made into a classic film starring Humphrey Bogart.

Paramount executives said in the Feb. 15 earnings call that they are in negotiations with their lenders on the two properties, but both investments have already been marked down to zero on company books. Executives say debt on the buildings far exceeds their current market value.

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2023/05/31/state-farm-policy-affect-bay-area-real-estate.html?ana=e_FR_BN&j=34770419&senddate=2024-03-21

State Farm's California exit could cause headache for Bay Area home, business owners

State Farm Insurance's decision last week to cease accepting new applications — including all business and personal lines property and casualty insurance — has potential consequences for both homebuyers and small business owners in the Bay Area.

The company — the largest property and casualty insurance provider in the state as of 2021 — said it was necessary to take the actions now to improve the its financial strength. But it could spell trouble for some local real estate transactions by limiting the buyer pool in heavily wooded areas. Buyers getting a mortgage typically are required to have insurance that covers losses from fire, and brokers have said this had already gotten more difficult before State Farm's announcement.

Patrick says

and brokers have said this had already gotten more difficult before State Farm's announcement.

All part of the Great Reset.

Large corporations that can self-insure will buy up all the houses.

You'll still be allowed to eat whatever roaches in 'your house' than you can catch, tho.

That's part of what thru mean by 'Let zem eat zee bugs'.

https://californiaglobe.com/fl/the-empty-storefronts-of-downtown-san-francisco/

The Empty Storefronts of Downtown San Francisco
San Francisco vacancy ‘is probably worse than 37% right now’

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Many illegals use real tax ids of actual citizens.

Yeah, I know. I don't like signing up for services/subscriptions, but I have to unlock my SS # any time I need a credit pull. Also prevents my CC temptation to play the points game. Slight pain in the ass, but no one can use my SS # without me being there to unlock it. I 2 step the F out of everything password wise and financially. Again a pain, but guess what, I get to use the same password without fear everywhere where it's important. So in that way it makes life easier with fraud protection.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/housing-market/article-13293369/san-francisco-housing-market-stumble-crime.html

'San Francisco has lost some of its appeal post-pandemic. A lot of tech employers and big-name retailers have moved out of the city, and some of my clients have reported they're leaving the area because they don't feel as safe as they used to.'

San Francisco's Westfield, once a thriving mall home to the largest Nordstrom in America in the city's downtown area, is now a shell of its former self after a string of departures from big-name stores.

Occupancy was at a measly 25 percent in January, and staff and shoppers told DailyMail.com how they were left 'scared' by 'rising crime, drug-taking and homelessness' in the area.

@patrick I left the bay area 13 years ago. Do people out in public that you know discuss the downtrends there? Or maybe they are in denial or maybe it's faux pas to discuss.

Just curious...

San Diego was trending down too in my opine but not like that. Mostly just the schools indoctrinating kids with critical race garbage that had some of my friends move out of CA. And too many foreigners...

@just_passing_through

Yes, that article was sent to me by someone I know here, for example.

But he rents, like I do. People who own a house never mention the downtrend around here. The psychology is amazingly consistent that way.

You know, it's very much like the vaxx thing. Most people who took it refuse to believe that it's really as bad as it provably is.

Patrick says

You know, it's very much like the vaxx thing. Most people who took it refuse to believe that it's really as bad as it provably is.

People would rather potentially die than accept they made an error.

I know I can be propagandized, it's the first thing you learn about propaganda, nobody is free from it, even if they are 100% aware of how it works. You can only correct it later, what I'm shocked by is nobody seems to care about being correct. I never appreciated that. I was never aware of it. I want to be corrected, most people seemed to be locked into a rigid set of beliefs. I wonder if this effects our "upper class" as well. If it does, we really do live in a society of madness.

There's no doubt that the entire bay area, esp. SF are in a downtrend, but house prices are maybe down 5%-10% from the peak, in SF maybe 10-15%, so pretty much only people who bought 2019-2022 during the plandemic or just before are under water. But builders have stopped building pretty much and inventory is tight, so prices have actually stabilized and in better areas reversed the trend

Patrick says

Yes, that article was sent to me by someone I know here, for example.

But he rents, like I do. People who own a house never mention the downtrend around here. The psychology is amazingly consistent that way.

I had a feeling...

My hood prices dropped around 200k then bounced back up rather quickly. The cash is out there in somebody's' pockets, interest rates be damned.

At the rate things are going, the Asians will probably make us a neighborhood Caucasian museum and throw peanuts and bananas at us. That, and surrounded by inheritors.

https://sfstandard.com/2024/04/11/this-far-right-maga-style-mayoral-candidate-is-back/

Ceffer says

My hood prices dropped around 200k then bounced back up rather quickly. The cash is out there in somebody's' pockets, interest rates be damned.

At the rate things are going, the Asians will probably make us a neighborhood Caucasian museum and throw peanuts and bananas at us. That, and surrounded by inheritors.

Large cash flush corporations are buying up inventory. Blackrock is one of them.

When the WEF said you will own nothing and be happy, they were 1/2 right, that is their plan.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/crime-ridden-san-francisco-wants-punish-grocery-stores-fleeing-said-crime

Crime-Ridden San Francisco Wants To Punish Grocery Stores For Fleeing Said Crime

Unpunished crime is so out of control in San Francisco that the city now wants to punish grocery stores who want to leave.

Under the 'Grocery Protection Act' introduced by city Board of Supervisors member Dean Preston (Democratic Socialist), stores that want to flee all the crime and other increased liabilities will have to provide the city with six months advanced notice, and make efforts to find a replacement supermarket for the location being vacated, Benzinga reports.

The move comes after While Foods shut down its flagship store in San Francisco after being open for just over a year, citing employee safety concerns.

The reports show how workers at the store were routinely threatened with weapons, while vagrants would throw food at staff, engage in fights, and even defecate on the floor.

One incident saw a homeless man with a knife spray an employee with a fire extinguisher.

...

There were also cases of drug overdoses with one man dying in the bathroom after overdosing on fentanyl and methamphetamine. Thefts were also common with large quantities of alcohol stolen from the store. -Daily Mail

Nearly 570 emergency calls were logged from the location, including one call with desperate pleas to the police saying "male [with] machete is back," and "another security guard was just assaulted." ...

Preston's proposal would allow anyone impacted by a noncompliant store closure to initiate legal proceedings.

As Benzinga further notes, "It’s not just grocery stores that have had enough of the city. Other large businesses that recently closed their downtown San Francisco locations include Adidas, AT&T Inc., Nordstrom and Lego Group."

Maybe start punishing crime?

The 'Grocery Protection Act' would mean that no new stores will open. What business would want to be forced to remain open at a loss?

How can you force a store to be open? If it's open but not restocked, is it really open? If all workers (except security guards) were fired or quit and management is looking for replacements but having trouble finding suitable candidates, is the store really-really open?

Demon rats are living in imaginary world.

RWSGFY says

How can you force a store to be open?

True, a judge should immediately throw this out. And if not, just do like you said and just run out of stock and employees.

Great way to grow a food desert lol.