patrick.net

farmer2021 says

Bitcoin says

My house in Socal appreciated by 100k within the last 6 month. Fuckin lol.

Apr 4, 2020 Sold for 1.66M
Apr 20,2021 Sold for 2.3M

640k appreciation in one year. Best business idea ever.
US is fucked up.

@farmer2021
640k profit in the 1-2M range is nuts. Where is this? Was that your house?

HunterTits says

Tenpoundbass says

I wonder how these folks will handle getting foreclosed?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/04/massive-brawl-breaks-mississippi-seafood-restaurant-chairs-glasses-fists-go-flying-video/

I dont mind when people of color hit each other. have at it. At the end the scapegoat is the bad, white man of course.

Whatever it is its not local to CA. Bought here at 440k and now a half a year later I could get 550k maybe with no contingency and over asking. My house in CA is already up about 100k.

farmer2021 says

It is becoming like Asian cities where only rich can afford houses.

yes...and europe....

B.A.C.A.H. says

This may change, but I don't see the inflation in my grocery basket.

I don't think inflation shows up across the board until the final tailspin. Personally, it seems like a hundred bucks doesn't get me what it used to, but that's just my opinion. And I'm sure we can both agree that printing trillions of dollars does not a sound medium exchange, create.

Tenpoundbass says

I wonder how these folks will handle getting foreclosed?

Foreclosed? Joe&Hoe will put a forever emergency moratorium on foreclosures. Just wait for Indian strain of covid to land on our shores, giving them a perfect pretext.

Earlier this year, Governor Gavin Newsom today signed legislation to extend the state's landmark eviction moratorium through June 30, 2021. There's got to be some follow on effect at some point. Wonder if some landlords will be driven to foreclosure?

Is housing slowing back down? Here's what I'm seeing...

1) In my area - ATL suburbs, prices have almost double in the last 5 years. If the home is priced in the realm of reality, it will sell in a weekend. What I am seeing though, are sellers asking beyond the realm of reality, and those are definitely sitting.

2) I've had my eyes on homes in a few zip codes in Florida, for months, everything was pending or contingent for months. Now I'm starting to see properties sit significantly longer - and much more seems to becoming available.

Wondering if this is the top? And all the panic covid buying has dried up, especially with the prices going to high.

joshuatrio says

Wondering if this is the top? And all the panic covid buying has dried up, especially with the prices going to high.

God I hope so

Just wait until Xi Biden negates $50k of student loans per student. That'll add millions of new potential buyers more than willing to go massively into debt to buy a house.

Who knows maybe Xi Biden will then cancel mortgage debt as well.

What could go wrong?

neighborhood house.....couple bought in March, never moved in and put back on the market in April for 200k more!! It shows pending.....adjacent neighbor said there was a bidding war. Cant wait to see the final price on it.
there is no inventory in my area. I dont think I would sell my house, not even if someone offers me 500k over market value.
And where else would I even go? Its been going up everywhere in SoCal and my family loves it here.

Xi Biden could also add a wealth tax. even a small, modest tax (by communist standards) could shoot the prices of all equity assets (even housing) into the affordable range for the newly debt liberated millennials.

Alt coin Hodlrs would freak worse than the Prop 13ers.

farmer2021 says

Aug 17, 2009 Sold (MLS) (Sold) $1,275,000
Listed : $2,499,000
Sold : $2,800,000

Do the math, homie. CAGR = (ln(2.8/1.275))/12 = 6.5%.

How much did the stock market go up in those 12 years? With no property tax, no insurance cost, no repair bills, no interest payments, no peer pressure to have nice looking expensive cars in driveway, no peer pressure on kids for every extra club membership, etc.

farmer2021 says

275k(Investment) -> 1425k(Gain-100K selling cost) -> 11 years.
~16% return every year.
(It will reach higher when you add $500k return has no tax for high income family)

farmer,

the return is a negative cash flow every year, till they sell and realize the gain.

Do you live in the region? Just asking.

Thanks Zillow, but WTF? (but, I'm cool ... keep it coming!)

Hey! Anyone out there interested in a $2.25MM shack? Walking distance to Apple's 2 main campi. I know a great place you can rent a bulldozer, although it might be cheaper and more fun to call up the local BLM or Antifa chapter to orchestrate some "property improvement."

farmer2021 says

I think SF is opportunity to buy. This built up city is just waiting for conservative mayor to show up as the things are going to get worse.

That's exactly what people were saying of Detroit (and many many many other hell-hole cities) about 50 years ago. We're all still waiting!

Well, at least SF could be a lovely place to live. Great weather, clean ocean breeze, and lots of fantastic attractions within car distance.

When SF declares itself a not "sanctuary city" and starts handing over hardened criminals to the federal government, I'll concede that the place at least has the possibility of improvement. I can't understand how a city doesn't jump at the opportunity to have the federal government (on the federal dime) remove convicted criminals.

SunnyvaleCA says

farmer2021 says

I think SF is opportunity to buy. This built up city is just waiting for conservative mayor to show up as the things are going to get worse.

That's exactly what people were saying of Detroit (and many many many other hell-hole cities) about 50 years ago. We're all still waiting!

Well, at least SF could be a lovely place to live. Great weather, clean ocean breeze, and lots of fantastic attractions within car distance.

That's what my wife kept saying about CA in general. I told her its been declining since before our birth with one positive bump in the 80s.

FuckCCP89 says

Joe&Hoe

Lol, perfect.

farmer2021 says

Here is the calculation:

This is quite convenient:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html

Pretty much ends the debate for me. Just plug in the numbers. Of course you have to put a value on not having to move when the lease is up too.

SunnyvaleCA says

When SF declares itself a not "sanctuary city" and starts handing over hardened criminals to the federal government, I'll concede that the place at least has the possibility of improvement. I can't understand how a city doesn't jump at the opportunity to have the federal government (on the federal dime) remove convicted criminals.

I agree.

For me personally, I'll consider San Francisco after they put Columbus back in his rightful place on Telegraph Hill.

farmer2021 says

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

Here is the calculation:

This is quite convenient:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html

Pretty much ends the debate for me. Just plug in the numbers. Of course you have to put a value on not having to move when the lease is up too.

Try 16%(only allowed 15% growth housing prices) .. You will see How renting goes out of water.
Buying is better, even if you could rent for free.
Rent needs to be -$12,044 per month.

This is the evil with housing today.

There are plenty of repairs for a house. Roof can be 20k-30k or more, crawlspace 5k-10k, drainage, plumbing etc. etc. Can't just do the math like this. It depends on the situation.

farmer2021 says

Not true. You can refinance or take money out as long as your income can support the mortgage.

That is hilarious. Calling taking money out, increasing the amount of debt, as positive cash flow. This is like the fed using printed money for the US government to dole out. The government can coerce folks to pay taxes, or the fed can tap Greater Fools in the bond market to keep the gig going for awhile. But homeowners, be they techie homeowners or landlords, have no such powers of persuasion or coercion over their salaries, or the rent they collect. (My understanding is renters have some protections now so they don't even have to pay). Renters can just leave, like Patrick and millions of others in California are contemplating.

I understand your point about Asia. We are in the United States, homie, not Hong Kong, not Bangalore. The United States does not end at Altamont Pass. So many folks who immigrated to here from all over the world got some screwy idea that they are tapped into our psyche from their narrow perspective of being in immigrant enclaves like the Bay Area or Vancouver or whatever. They are clueless.

I'd say, good for that homeowner who owned for 12 years at negative cash flow, paying Property Tax through the nose, and was able to cash out to a Greater Fool. For the time being that Greater Fool will be contributing to our Civil Servant Pensions in even huger amounts than the Lesser Fool he bought from, with the new assessment. Party On!

farmer2021 says

Try visiting a open house these days in bay area.
They will ask for all kinds of pre-approval and house will sell before you get scheduled.

I don't know who are these people buying, But It is reality and been like this for last few years accelerated by COVID.
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/2021-04-Santa-Clara-camping-overnight-townhome-16127719.php
Dozens camp overnight for chance to buy $1.2 million Bay Area townhouses

Yawn.

The US does not end at Altamont Pass. Many might argue though, that it begins at Altamont Pass.

Who sets the sales prices of homes (and nearly every other asset)? The sellers? The ®ealtors? Of course not. It's the buyers. What is evil about that?

farmer2021 says

No the prices are set by "Mortgage banks" and their appraisal officers.

That is silly. The prices are "set" by the price the Greater Fool (buyer) is willing to pay. Yes, banks will give them a lift with the low interest rates. And yes, appraisers will sanction the price for the lender. And the price will be determined by the amount the buyer is willing to pay. Maybe by "offering" way more than the asking price. Silly Greater Fools.

This is not Bangalore or Shanghai or Hong Kong, though perhaps beginning to look like those places with frenzied folks coveting a few square meters of real estate. There's a whole USA beyond Altamont Pass without such frenzy.

farmer2021 says

B.A.C.A.H. says

farmer2021 says

No the prices are set by "Mortgage banks" and their appraisal officers.

That is silly. The prices are "set" by the price the Greater Fool (buyer) is willing to pay. Yes, banks will give them a lift with the low interest rates. And yes, appraisers will sanction the price for the lender. And the price will be determined by the amount the buyer is willing to pay. Maybe by "offering" way more than the asking price. Silly Greater Fools.

This is not Bangalore or Shanghai or Hong Kong, though perhaps beginning to look like those places with frenzied folks coveting a few square meters of real estate. There's a whole USA beyond Altamont Pass without such frenzy.

I wish buyer had that power.
Unfortunately he is helpless and hapless.
Many have no choice but to cough up...

The rise in prices correlates with the fall of mortgage rates. Now there's also a shortage in rural and suburban areas due to various factors, mainly covid. In CA prop 13 adds to the shortage. Prices in most Western countries have been rising fueled by low rates, in Europe rates have been even lower. But you don't have to buy in CA, there are more affordable properties all over the map, in FL or TX for example. Plus rents have fallen to the point where renting is equal or better than owning in certain areas. You have a choice. And realtors on avg. are actually not doing well in a market like this, so it's not them conspiring. Many realtors are starving in a market with a shortage of homes as their clients never get the bid, and listing agents have fewer and fewer homes to sell. The markup on prices does not make up for that, realtors would much rather have a market with plenty of supply and more homes selling and turning over at lower prices.

farmer2021 says

The illogical and cruel shutdowns are going to make life hell for everyone.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumber-prices-232-could-spiral-090000342.html
Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next

I would call where they are currently “spiraled out of control,” but to each his own...

mell says

Many realtors are starving in a market with a shortage of homes as their clients never get the bid, and listing agents have fewer and fewer homes to sell. The markup on prices does not make up for that, realtors would much rather have a market with plenty of supply and more homes selling and turning over at lower prices.

The way I see it (at least here in silicon valley) is that real-estate agents are a dime a dozen. Many go into that line of work hoping for a quick fortune. The market for that job sorts itself out. If they wind up only making $40k a year (because there are 5x more agents in the market than needed), then they shouldn't complain ... their skillset isn't any more marketable than a supermarket cashier and they're making the same money.

Just remember that the purpose of an agent hosting an open house on the weekend isn't to show the house; it's to meet new clients.

There are currently more licensed real estate agents than there are houses for sale. More are being drawn into the field every day wanting to make bank for doing nothing.

ForcedTQ says

Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next

I would call where they are currently “spiraled out of control,”

Misc says

There are currently more licensed real estate agents than there are houses for sale. More are being drawn into the field every day wanting to make bank for doing nothing.

The real estate transaction system is what it is. I am a real estate photographer and I can tell you, Realtors are not a dime a dozen. Every transaction is different regarding personalities and difficulties.

WineHorror1 says

The real estate transaction system is what it is. I am a real estate photographer and I can tell you, Realtors are not a dime a dozen. Every transaction is different regarding personalities and difficulties.

This is true. There's grown ass men that couldn't run a lawn mower if their life depended on it. There are shit head Realtors out there, so not defending the industry as they're overpaid for what they're doing. But if you can't mow the lawn good luck with a real estate transaction on your own between showings and all the other BS.

The real estate lobby is massive. Some were MLS fees, but most of my fees went to the association when I held a license. Let it lapse in September this past year and I'm saving $2k/yr now for something I only used for personal uses. I've got enough connections that I can make it as cheap as holding a license now. Wasn't worth the hassle anymore doing CE every 2 years and the cost.

Personalities are the worst part. Too many hands in the pot. Realtors (against each other), lenders, inspectors, attorneys, municipalities in some locations, etc. Probably by design, but having been there and managing a place, it's not all rainbows and sunshine.

Also, zz, the lady in red is pretty hot.

WineHorror1 says

Realtors are not a dime a dozen.

That's being generous.

A dime per dozens.

(BTW this is not Chicago, it's the SF Bay Area).

B.A.C.A.H. says

WineHorror1 says

Realtors are not a dime a dozen.

That's being generous.

A dime per dozens.

(BTW this is not Chicago, it's the SF Bay Area).

Realtors are sales people. Would you call all salesmen a dime a dozen? If I understand correctly, sales is one of the top 4-5 paid careers...for a reason.

IMO, if you want to be dissatisfied with a real estate transaction, look no further than the government, financial institutions and the NAR.

I think Zillow, or some other type of company, has a real chance to compete with the NAR. Competition in this industry is sorely needed. Also, if America wants to be a great nation again, IMO, we need more people in houses without going broke and relying on that sweet sweet equity for their retirement. Just my 2 cents.

America is bifurcating along social, political and economic lines like never before(?)....not good. Not good at all.

Oh, and probably along health lines now as well with fucking the plandemic and all.

SunnyvaleCA says

mell says

Many realtors are starving in a market with a shortage of homes as their clients never get the bid, and listing agents have fewer and fewer homes to sell. The markup on prices does not make up for that, realtors would much rather have a market with plenty of supply and more homes selling and turning over at lower prices.

The way I see it (at least here in silicon valley) is that real-estate agents are a dime a dozen. Many go into that line of work hoping for a quick fortune. The market for that job sorts itself out. If they wind up only making $40k a year (because there are 5x more agents in the market than needed), then they shouldn't complain ... their skillset isn't any more marketable than a supermarket cashier and they're making the same money.

Just remember that the purpose of an agent hosting an open house on the weekend isn't to show the house; it's to meet new clients.

Agreed - it wasn't meant to be specifically sympathetical towards realtors, just pointing out that a sellers market with low inventory is not good for them.

Radio personalities are overpaid and dime a dozen also. /sarc. My brother in law is a pretty popular radio personality in Seattle. It takes a special type of person to do that job.

Misc says

There are currently more licensed real estate agents than there are houses for sale. More are being drawn into the field every day

WineHorror1 says

Realtors are sales people.

The same thing said two different ways.

Farmer,

If you think your story about ®ealtors is the whole picture, then get your license.

Then you will get your own Pocket Listing and be able to make your own purchase of your own listing, paying your commission to your self.

The license is so cheap that you'll come out ahead on the commission.