patrick.net

I think psychology doesn't matter much with respect to house prices.

Almost everyone who wants to buy is going to buy, because wifey demands it. Very few men have the balls to say no.

And they are all going to max out their debt, because that's the first thing that every Realtard(R) suggests that they do.

Zillow says my California crap shack went up in value 14 percent this month.

farmer2021 says

My place went up 65% zillow in one year.

holy crap....why? Location, additions to the house, did a tech company build its HQ next door?

wow, those san ramon prices are legit, not some zillow error. I checked a handful of recent < 90 days sales, and they were all about 30% over the previous zestimate that they maintained for the past few years.

People who bought in circa 2012 there did real good, because they pretty much all doubled in price from then to ~2020, and then now the 2021 covid rebound gives thaem an additional 30% on top - basically a 300% gain in 7 years. About 450k to 1.35M was what I saw commonly.

farmer2021 says

whites are smarter and know How to live life

Most whites are leaving California. The white population in public schools here is 22%. That should give you a good idea of the direction the state is headed. Most of the whites left here in the spendy zones are inheritors of property/wealth. It’s way too hard to get started now unless you are in the top 5-10% of wage earners. And that’s unlikely for most people under 40. So with no hope of buying a house around here, people just opt to leave the state and try their luck elsewhere. Everyone ive spoken to who has done this has been happy with the move.

Shaman says

Most whites are leaving California. The white population in public schools here is 22%. That should give you a good idea of the direction the state is headed.

It's not just whites. I grew up in a neighborhood in SJ with many black families. Unlike stereotypes, just like other races they were honest, hardworking folks who did not make trouble. Some of those kids were my friends. They're all gone. Mostly left the state. The handful who are still in California are in Sac and the Sierra Foothills.

Neighborhoods in East SJ that were mostly Latino are being settled by Asians, mostly Vietnamese. How can they afford it? The house will be packed to the gills with working age adults. If there's any children, the elderly grandparents also moved in to look after them. Last month I walked through the Sal Si Puedes neighborhood of East SJ where Cesar Chavez lived. Years ago that would have been dangerous for a haolie like me, but not any more. The tsunami of hard-working Asians settling there are gentrifying the place. I walked right past the Cesar Chavez family home on Scharf Ave., took a photo of the historical marker. Chatted with friendly residents of the street here and there, mostly Vietnamese senior citizen men maintaining their gardens in the front yards. Many senior Vietnamese couples out on their morning walks.

My barber is a Vietnamese young man with a heavy accent. He attended a local high school in SJ, but he grew in Ho Chi Minh City. He has described to me the squalid, crowded living conditions they lived in there. What he described made sharing a 1100 sq ft sh*tbox in East SJ with 7 or so adults and a couple or so schoolagers sound like the WIde Open Prairie.

It's not complicated. Most Americans were given over $160k in purchase power when factoring in all the stimulus (just this last round). Many were still working. Those that weren't working, likely rent anyway, so they don't move the needle on housing prices. The government literally gave those working with $120k or so in family income a down payment or assistance towards a down payment.

Times will be good a bit here, but shit is going to unravel. I don't want to get too dramatic as that's a tough prediction, but guys, we have a POTUS that cannot even walk up stairs. Cannot talk. A VP and Speaker of the House that are complete morons. I worry this might be worse than the housing bust. Not a prediction. Millions not working and housing prices continuing to go up on printed money is not sound financial policy.

whites who dont make 200+ in California can move in with mom and dad or rent a cheap apartment and tell themselves for decades "one day we can afford a house". Non-whites who make less than 100k household income just cramp together. In shitty neighborhoods you see streets are packed with car's because 3 families live in one SFH.

The entire fantasy story of people leaving in droves is simply BS. Traffic is getting worse and worse. Houses get sold 1-2 days after the hit the market. There is no CA exodus, no matter how many times you tell this fantasy story. And Asians coming over here has slowed down a lot over the years. I know a ton of friends who make 300K+ combined household income. 1M for a condo is normal here but with that income, its a nothing burger.

We bought because rents were starting to exceed our mortgage; a VA no money down.

I'm considering buying a second property with land in the next few months. Something in the 20-30 acre range. I'm sitting on a chunk of cash, and it's worth substantially less than last year.

Biggest concern is that property prices will tank, but inflation seems to be rearing it's ugly head.

No panic buying in shitty neighborhoods in Baltimore City. Prices are flat and down to pre bubble levels. I'm referring to the previous housing bubble, not the current one.

joshuatrio says

I'm considering buying a second property with land in the next few months. Something in the 20-30 acre range. I'm sitting on a chunk of cash, and it's worth substantially less than last year.

Biggest concern is that property prices will tank, but inflation seems to be rearing it's ugly head.

I would agree but the fact that "inflation" is already here, I expect deflationary actions to be coming that will tank asset prices. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

farmer2021 says

Bhartis are bidding this place like New Delhi.
I guess Indians don’t miss their country where they spend whole life paying for one house.

No joke. Look at this from city-data.com

San Ramon 2019


2011


I think 2000


Rapid race change. # of whites slowly falling, while asians rising. data like this supports statements from realtors who say asians are buying up certain cities.

Everybody should be selling like crazy, or you haven't learned shit from the past 20 years.

farmer2021 says

Why doesn't the Asian do the same as whites and leave bay area?

I once went on a work trip with a Hindu colleague to Texas. He was very meticulous when ordering his food but he knew something was off with the vegetable soup. Waitress, very kind, went back to the kitchen and found it was made with beef stock -- yikes!
That was a while back, and the US continues to change, but you can see why some groups still may chose their ethnic ghettos enclaves over the wide open spaces.

EBGuy says

ethnic ghettos

I prefer "enclaves". Because they are not coerced or forced into the ghettoes, they self-select and choose to concentrate in their enclaves.

porkchopexpress says

joshuatrio says

I'm considering buying a second property with land in the next few months. Something in the 20-30 acre range. I'm sitting on a chunk of cash, and it's worth substantially less than last year.

Biggest concern is that property prices will tank, but inflation seems to be rearing it's ugly head.

I would agree but the fact that "inflation" is already here, I expect deflationary actions to be coming that will tank asset prices. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Same boat here. Been thinking about buying a vacation property/land for a year or so. Inflation from the past few months is causing some anxiety of being priced out. I believe covid caused home price inflation to front run due to bringing forward demand from people moving out of apartments etc. I do see similarities to what happened in '12-'14 where prices jumped 10% to 15% per year and prices continued to increase from there. Home up the street here in the east bay, contra costa county, went $135k over asking price for a 1400 sq home, crazy over bidding. Hard to tell where we go from here. I'd like to think asset prices will deflate, or slow down, but have you seen the S&P vs M1 money supply? Maybe I'm reading this wrong but it appears the dollar has been debased so far due to covid that we need to inflate out of this hole similar to what happened in 2009.

B.A.C.A.H. says

I prefer "enclaves". Because they are not coerced or forced into the ghettoes, they self-select and choose to concentrate in their enclaves.

Yes, I like enclave better as well as ghetto didn't quite feel right when I typed it.
And it certainly fits, for say, Milpitas.

farmer2021 says

These are amongst the richest.

Richest, or most indebted.