patrick.net

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says

If we're going to trade paper, we can trade paper without the gold/silver.

It all comes down to whether your bank is honest or not. If they are, then you should have no problem using paper for the transactions it makes sense for. If they aren't, then why the fuck are you banking there?

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says

No Gold/Silver standard without a Constitutional Amendment to pay all wages in physical silver/gold and banning ANY AND ALL, Public OR Private, paper/digital for that purpose. And it must declared legal tender for the satisfaction of all debts, including physical delivery - nobody can refuse the metal itself as payment for purchases or debt.

I would love this, but is it possible?

What is the ratio between all US wages paid in two weeks' time, and the total value of gold and silver in the US?

I really don't know the answer.

Patrick says

What is the ratio between all US wages paid in two weeks' time, and the total value of gold and silver in the US?

In our search for an answer of tracking a commodity to create our own inflation gauge, we settled on an ounce of gold: how many hours of median-priced labor would a median American trade for an ounce of gold. This exercise morphed from trying to gauge inflation and purchasing power, into what would be a reasonable market price for an ounce of gold.

Of course, we had to take into account the deflation of purchasing power of American wages that was papered over by women transitioning into the Labor Force. We used Census data for this. The way that we did it was looking for inflection points in a smoothed plot of median household income to median wage income. (I have since lost all the data when my computer crashed).

The graph pointed to a date in the late 60's / early 70's. Surprise! Whaddaya know. That's the window when the US went off the Gold Standard. Going off the Gold Standard was a years-long process, not a single event. It began in 1968 when the US pulled out of the Gold Pool trading where a market price was set, and culminated in the 1971 Nixon decree.

Another inflection point was around 1995, when median household income vs median wage income flat-lined. We assumed it meant that all the homemakers who would ever enter the labor market, had done so. The slope of the trend that ended around 1995 correlated to about a 1% per year secular decline for the contribution of the individual worker to the household income. You could say, a 1% per year decline in the purchasing power / 1% decline in the standard of living per year.

These all pointed to, when we did analysis in 2007, a trade of something like 40 hours of median labor per ounce of gold. Assuming our 1% deflator, 14 years later a median worker have to trade about 46 hours of labor to pay for that ounce.

I lost all that data a few years later and am too Lazy to redo it.

46 hrs per oz sounds reasonable.

Current price of $1800 / 46 = about $39 per hour equivalent.

Since the US only has about 8000 tonnes of gold in reserves, we have about $250 billion worth of gold.

The US has about $5.5 trillion in cash, bank deposits and money market instruments. Going to a gold standard is not feasible.

The metals markets are some of the most manipulated markets in the world with the major bullion banks holding just fractions of their outstanding obligations and in the case of silver they are naked short thousand and thousands of tonnes.

The government will not allow the peasants to crash the system and will outlaw owning precious metals physically before letting the banking system tumble.

Misc says

The US has about $5.5 trillion in cash, bank deposits and money market instruments. Going to a gold standard is not feasible.

FFS - of course it is. You just increase the value of gold.

At the end of Wiemar Germany, you could literally buy a HOUSE with a single ounce of gold.

Either way you cut it, this system is coming down at some point. We're already bankrupt, and I don't think a farmer is going to be trading you food for a bitcoin.

There is no savior in gold. The gold simply doesn't exist and if you have any, it will simply be confiscated because it's been outlawed.

A farmer isn't going to be trading you food for gold either, but since farmers on average are in debt about $1 million, they will trade for dollars.

There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?

RC2006 says

There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?

Have you seen the price of ammo recently?

I have no doubt it is a great investment.

richwicks says

and I don't think a farmer is going to be trading you food for a bitcoin.

Personally, part of my portfolio diversification / retirement plan is to purchase / build a small farm with decent self sufficiency. A deep well, decent soil, good supply of seeds, some animals, solar, septic, and remote.

It's good insurance against a lot of potential catastrophes. Doesn't cost too much either, and will likely hold its value well.

Misc says

There is no savior in gold. The gold simply doesn't exist and if you have any, it will simply be confiscated because it's been outlawed.

People accumulating gold would dump it in the Mariana's trench rather than give it to the criminals that caused the economic collapse.

This isn't the 1930's any more when people had a high level of trust in the government. In fact, prior to the outlawing of gold in 1933, many people sent it over-seas. This is why gold coins from the late 1920's are in pristine condition. They were never circulated.

RC2006 says

There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?

Sure. Consider that the ATF regulates exactly those things that preserve wealth in a societal meltdown: Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms

I believe it's illegal for you to own and warehouse more than a certain amount of alcohol without a special permit from our owners, so they can know where it is and come take it if you oppose their mastery over you.

richwicks says

At the end of Wiemar Germany, you could literally buy a HOUSE with a single ounce of gold.

Yes, and at the end of the Nazi era, people used cigarettes as currency because:

1. there is always demand and they are not trivial to create
2. a carton of cigarettes could be split into packs (how many packs in a carton?), and packs into (typically 20) individual cigarettes to make change

Hircus says

46 hrs per oz sounds reasonable.

Current price of $1800 / 46 = about $39 per hour equivalent.

Equals $78K per year.

It's still a relatively rich mans game.

Hircus says

richwicks says

and I don't think a farmer is going to be trading you food for a bitcoin.

Personally, part of my portfolio diversification / retirement plan is to purchase / build a small farm with decent self sufficiency. A deep well, decent soil, good supply of seeds, some animals, solar, septic, and remote.

It's good insurance against a lot of potential catastrophes. Doesn't cost too much either, and will likely hold its value well.

This is my long term goal. Also would be nice to leave for kids hopefully I will be able to instill the value of it so they would keep it for future generations.

Hircus says

Personally, part of my portfolio diversification / retirement plan is to purchase / build a small farm with decent self sufficiency. A deep well, decent soil, good supply of seeds, some animals, solar, septic, and remote.

Unless you grew up in the sticks, like I did, and actually tended a relatively large garden, like I was forced to do as a kid, as a chore, you have no idea how unrealistic it is to live off the land, especially in old age.

You know what the principle difference between a vegetable you grow in your own garden, and one you buy at the store? It's a hell of a lot less work to buy it at the store.

Your primary concern will be obtaining water. Solar power and septic, those are easy to do and really not necessary to be honest.

I plan to keep it somewhat low maintenance. My desire isn't to live off the land most of the time, but to be able to live off the land, if needed. If the need arises, I can plant lots of additional seed, and begin multiplying the animals. Stockpiles of dry goods can easily cover food needs during a farm ramp up phase.

Misc says

There is no savior in gold. The gold simply doesn't exist and if you have any, it will simply be confiscated because it's been outlawed.

A farmer isn't going to be trading you food for gold either, but since farmers on average are in debt about $1 million, they will trade for dollars.

4,000 years of history and free/black markets say otherwise.

Hircus says

46 hrs per oz sounds reasonable.

Current price of $1800 / 46 = about $39 per hour equivalent.

He said MEDIAN labor. I believe median labor is around $25/hour. So, that means 72 hours.

Misc says

RC2006 says

There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?

Have you seen the price of ammo recently?

I have no doubt it is a great investment.

It is starting to come down.

WineHorror1 says

He said MEDIAN labor. I believe median labor is around $25/hour. So, that means 72 hours.

Yeah.

So it means by our reckoning that either gold is over-priced in dollars, or the decline in our living standard has accelerated from the 1% per year we reckoned for 1971 to 1995.

As a percent of our nation's wealth, gold has plummeted in value.

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/happens-currency-collapses-lebanon/

What happens when your currency collapses?
The Lebanese are living through a terrible economic experiment

WineHorror1 says

Misc says

RC2006 says

There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?

Have you seen the price of ammo recently?

I have no doubt it is a great investment.

It is starting to come down.

got a few 100 rounds 9mm for $49ea. Best price since a looong time. finally.

Misc says

As a percent of our nation's wealth, gold has plummeted in value.

What wealth? You mean the record unemployment? The record national debt? The outsourcing of all manufacturing? Dependence on industrialized food? Shortages in basic raw materials across all industries?

But forget all that. You go out and buy some gold right now for the paper spot price(paper because it's based on trading contracts, not physical), and get delivery in a week. Go ahead, I'll wait...

Hircus says

I plan to keep it somewhat low maintenance. My desire isn't to live off the land most of the time, but to be able to live off the land, if needed. If the need arises, I can plant lots of additional seed, and begin multiplying the animals. Stockpiles of dry goods can easily cover food needs during a farm ramp up phase.

We are coming to the same conclusion.

Luckily in E. TX water is not a problem most of the time, land is productive, taxes rather low with ag exemption, and mineral rights can be profitable.

Misc says

As a percent of our nation's wealth, gold has plummeted in value.

Yeah, we're so wealthy we are now selling farmland directly to the Chinese. No kidding.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/07/china-is-buying-billions-in-us-farmland-and-lawmakers-are-scrambling-to-try-to-stop-them/

And no, US lawmakers are NOT trying to stop them. They are selling the country.

They've already sold the country to China by outsourcing almost all US manufacturing to them.

But yes, selling our farmland makes it worse. At least we can take it back easily.

WineHorror1 says

Misc says

RC2006 says

There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?

Have you seen the price of ammo recently?

I have no doubt it is a great investment.

It is starting to come down.

It is. Just found 9mm for $.33/round. A month ago it was about a dollar a round and pre hoaxdemix it was $.19/round.

joshuatrio says

It is. Just found 9mm for $.33/round. A month ago it was about a dollar a round and pre hoaxdemix it was $.19/round.

Defense or range rounds?

Does all the legal shoplifting in San Francisco count as deflation?

Booger says

Does all the legal shoplifting in San Francisco count as deflation?

It blows my mind that there is not more of this going on. Have all the retail outlets put all merch behind bars and glass yet?

NuttBoxer says

Misc says

As a percent of our nation's wealth, gold has plummeted in value.

What wealth? You mean the record unemployment? The record national debt? The outsourcing of all manufacturing? Dependence on industrialized food? Shortages in basic raw materials across all industries?

But forget all that. You go out and buy some gold right now for the paper spot price(paper because it's based on trading contracts, not physical), and get delivery in a week. Go ahead, I'll wait...

The government is not going to allow the peasants to collapse the banking system. The government will simply outlaw physical ownership of precious metals,

Good luck finding anyone to take it as payment when that happens.

Misc says

The government is not going to allow the peasants to collapse the banking system. The government will simply outlaw physical ownership of precious metals,

Good luck finding anyone to take it as payment when that happens.

Did you know Weimer Germany had a government? So did Ethiopia, Venezuela, America, Rome, etc. Yet they all experienced financial collapses. So what happened there? Are you saying those governments chose to allow the collapse?

Have you not read the recent Basil updates? They're actually pushing the other way, demanding central banks hold more gold in reserve. Tennessee recently put up a law restoring gold and silver as currency.

But gold/silver will not be used in every day transactions in a stable economy without a lot of change first. And part of that change will be collapse. In a collapse, how many people you think are going to be concerned about preventing people from trading in coin when they're families are without food? Especially considering the gun ownership rates in this country. But maybe this is the first time in history that free/black markets will be completely eradicated?

Misc says

The government is not going to allow the peasants to collapse the banking system. The government will simply outlaw physical ownership of precious metals,

They will outlaw the physical ownership of precious metals again.

Roosevelt did it in the Great Depression already.

Patrick says

Roosevelt did it in the Great Depression already.

Yeah. But the mining stocks rose fabulously.

There is no reason a 3/2 in Vallejo shouldn't be valued at $500 million if it has a driveway.

SumatraBosch says

There is no reason a 3/2 in Vallejo shouldn't be valued at $500 million if it has a driveway.

Exactly!

M2 velocity. Murray says hi.

Patrick says

Misc says

The government is not going to allow the peasants to collapse the banking system. The government will simply outlaw physical ownership of precious metals,

They will outlaw the physical ownership of precious metals again.

They may be true, but the people who have been hording precious metals will kill before they turn them in. They regard the government as a bunch of criminals, and their right to think this.

The COMEX is provably manipulated. JP Morgan was charging for storage of precious metals without actually purchasing it, Barrack mining claiming they were part of a government price suppression scheme when they were sued in court, and gold bugs have been slandered and libeled for 20 years - and nobody goes to jail.

There's not the dynamic that there was in the 1930's and a lot of what we were told about the 1930's, didn't happen. You can buy a 1920's gold $20 piece today, and you'll find out, it's in near or mint condition, because people didn't circulate it. They also didn't turn them in.

richwicks says

You can buy a 1920's gold $20 piece today, and you'll find out, it's in near or mint condition, because people didn't circulate it. They also didn't turn them in.

Exactly!

They held onto it for four decades during which the stocks went up (including the mining stocks went up), and deposits and Treasuries paid them interest.

If they needed to spend they redeemed some of those stocks/deposits/CDs/Treasuries for cash that they could spend, or maybe just spent the dividends/interest.

The Gold Hoarder could not spend his hoarded gold in the US without breaking the law, - meaning that whomever he sold it to was also breaking the law. This sounds like the risks of selling any contraband like unregistered firearms, illegal drugs, or whatever. He could admire his shiny gold coin but do little else with it. Like Gollum with his Precious.