patrick.net

Shaman says

For even a single 35,000 atom molecule of a base DNA pair to be spontaneously “made” would be extremely unlikely, perhaps one in a billion. For it to acquire other similarly formed base pairs, and then the cellular machinery that allows it to replicate and form proteins is unlikely to have happened in 10 billion years.

This reminds me of "debates" with creationists who heard "birds evolved from reptiles", and thus assume people who believe in evolution believe "A lizard woke up one day and decided, "Hey! Imma grow feathers and FLY!"

It's like you're looking at the finished outcome of billions of years of evolution in a snapshot of how-it-sits-today, can't imagine ALL the incremental steps and evolutionary blind alleys between primordial soup and now, and dismiss it as "Too complicated to have arisen spontaneously!"

Fully formed DNA base pairs didn't need to appear by immaculate conception first, in order for the first "life" to arise.

Edit: We should make a breakout "origins of life" thread, I miss talking about the nurses getting fired.

richwicks says

Here's an interesting thing to do - compare the skeleton of a human being to any other mammal

Compare the human anatomy with that of a frog. Same skeletal, muscular, and nerve layout. Even the digestive system is similar.

HeadSet says

Compare the human anatomy with that of a frog.

Later, compare the recurrent laryngeal nerve in the horse and the giraffe.

Automan Empire says

It's like you're looking at the finished outcome of billions of years of evolution in a snapshot of how-it-sits-today, can't imagine ALL the incremental steps and evolutionary blind alleys between primordial soup and now, and dismiss it as "Too complicated to have arisen spontaneously!"

Actually what I was saying is the very smallest least complicated example of life we know about is irreducibly complex. I’m not debating about how life forms can evolve and change over millennia and millions of years. I’m making the statement that NO MODEL currently understood by the most highly educated biologists in the world can adequately explain how the FIRST life came to be, in whatever form that took.

This is one of those questions that on the face of it looks simple: evolution. But the more that you learn on the subject, the thornier and more intractable the problem becomes, spiraling into fabulous complexity.
Have you heard of the Dunning-Krueger effect? Might wanna Google that one and learn how dangerous it is to assume you have even a basic understanding of a subject when in reality you know extremely little. I like to think that (after getting a degree in Biochemistry) I know just enough to understand the edges of this subject, and perhaps grasp the enormous range of particulars that encompasses it and which I don’t understand.

Shaman says

Actually what I was saying is the very smallest least complicated example of life we know about is irreducibly complex. I’m not debating about how life forms can evolve and change over millennia and millions of years. I’m making the statement that NO MODEL currently understood by the most highly educated biologists in the world can adequately explain how the FIRST life came to be, in whatever form that took.

Yep, that's completely right.

But it did - somehow. It might have been a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance of happening, but if the universe is infinite and time is infinite (it might be! There's good reason to believe the Big Bang is incorrect) - it's going to eventually happen. Maybe it was EXTREMELY unlikely, but it happened anyhow.

Shaman says

Have you heard of the Dunning-Krueger effect?

I'd be frankly surprised if anybody hasn't.

All you really learn is how much you don't fucking know. You can only claim to be an "expert" in a very very small section of any subject.

When I came to Silly Con Valley 20 years ago, it was pretty much accepted as inevitable that we'd have created a thinking, creative, independent machine entity in time, easily within our lifetimes. We don't even understand if HUMAN BEINGS are actually sentient and conscious. How do we even start making a thinking machine? We are still at step 1, and there's probably 10,000 steps to go. It may not be possible for a human being to understand something entirely, just the most vague ideas of it.

Ever head of the Boltzmann Brain? Maybe that is what god is.

Never forget, not only are you stupid, and I'm stupid, we're all fucking stupid. But the really stupid people think they're smart.

richwicks says

A billion years is a really long time.

Not only is a billion years a really long time, the processing is happening in parallel. Quadrillions or whatever ridiculously large number of molecules are bouncing around in the ocean and lakes all the time. Once a magic self-propagating formula happens to appear, then things could really take off as the better versions survive longer and reproduce more.

Or you could shortcut all that with a single mold spore drifting down from space.

Patrick says

Not only is a billion years a really long time, the processing is happening in parallel. Quadrillions or whatever ridiculously large number of molecules are bouncing around in the ocean and lakes all the time. Once a magic self-propagating formula happens to appear, then things could really take off as the better versions survive longer and reproduce more.

I struggle with religion.

At one point, I was a complete materialist, and viewed everything though the lens of amorality and superficial self-advantage.

But there really seems to be a force between good and evil. The concept of good and evil seems to be something outside of my own moral viewpoint. There seems to be a real group that simply wants to harm, a group that is amoral, and a group that opposes the harm. There really seems to be a war even though the majority, are simply sheep and don't see it.

I think the truly hyper-evil people, like Fauci and Pfizer CEO Bourla, just think if it as a game and the people who die as just worthless pawns in their game. It's the mafia mentality, and maybe literally a mafia.

Amino Acids, Peptides, and Proteins aren't life, they're organic compounds. They carry no information. They also aren't subject to mutation, so they can't evolve.

Oh, there's models galore, but the rubber needs to hit the road at some point:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022519397905683

Patrick says

Quadrillions or whatever ridiculously large number of molecules are bouncing around in the ocean and lakes all the time.

Hoyle remarked that if life was inevitable and simply needed a precisely perfect moment to form when all conditions are right, he said it should take half of the morning to recreate it in a lab.

If you look at abiogensist sites, they have models and scenarios galore, what's stopping them from testing these hypothesis out by mimicking the conditions? They would get results far faster in a controlled, intelligently guided (sorry, couldn't resist) environment.

Crick threw it on aliens, which is the Abiogenesis version of the "Who created the Creator, then", since the panspermiac aliens had to have arisen by natural processes themselves at some point. Kicking the can down the road...

Space is big. If there are aliens, there are probably a lot of them.

So again, it's a lot of parallel processing.

Automan Empire says

The ORIGINAL incarnation of the Miller-Urey experiment was debunked, but further development of it has NOT debunked the notion of complex molecules "spontaneously" forming from simple elements. The fact that the experiment "only" produced simple amino acids on a scale of DAYS doesn't debunk evolution on a time scale of Sagans of years. (Unit meaning "MILLions and BILLions!")

The original M-U experiment is invalidated by the fact that the conditions replicated were not that of ancient Earth now known to be the case. Instead, Miller-Urey used Ammonia, lots and lots of Free Hydrogen, Methane, and Ammonia. Big time reducing atmosphere.

We know now it was CO2 and Nitrogen and Water, and also had some trace Oxygen, which M-U excluded entirely. Guess what was produced when the experiment was repeated with the updated atmosphere? Not much, to put it mildly.

MU failed to produce the amino acids essential for life, like lysine and argentine (base amino acids). No variant of the M-U experiment has produced a base amino acid.

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says

We know now it was CO2 and Nitrogen and Water, and also had some trace Oxygen, which M-U excluded entirely. Guess what was produced when the experiment was repeated with the updated atmosphere?

I touched on this upthread. The updated model atmosphere needed an updated "firmament" to work, otherwise conditions became inhospitable to the very existence of larger molecules. IIRC some iron containing minerals didn't bring back the "brown slime" of the original experiment, but it DID start producing amino acids.


MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says

No variant of the M-U experiment has produced a base amino acid.

That the microcosm and short duration of the experiment didn't produce base pairs doesn't prove it couldn't have happened in the actual world. It DID prove that SOME of the building blocks of life form abiotically. I notice creationists and AGW skeptics treat science like cancel culture. Because one study didn't produce a grand unifying theory THIS COMPLETELY DEBUNKS THE ENTIRE CLAIM AND PROVES EVERYONE WHO BELIEVED IT IS FULL OF SHIT. Not how it works outside of lay publications.

Or perhaps we are more strictly adherent to the scientific method than atheists with an axe to grind and a Creator to debunk.
If your explanation involves too much hand waving, you might as well be counting on sorcery. That’s not science. I believe in science as a method to understand our world and perhaps even ourselves to some degree. Perhaps one day it will be proved that everything somehow arose out of nothing to the satisfaction of the most rigorous scientific method analysis.
But I doubt it.

Automan Empire says

I notice creationists and AGW skeptics treat science like cancel culture.

No, Creation Science and AGW supporters are of the same ilk. Both go into it looking for evidence to prove their faith while ignoring any detractions. AGW is just the Creation Science of the left.

Shaman says

Or perhaps we are more strictly adherent to the scientific method than atheists with an axe to grind and a Creator to debunk.

It's not a creator to debunk. It's a religion to debunk.

Organized religion is just as evil as any government. Christianity kept Europe in a dark age for nearly 2000 years. Having said that, if it wasn't Christianity that did it, it would have been something else.

Atheism isn't necessarily the answer, but certainly free thought is. If there is a God, there's no human expert or authority on it.

HeadSet says

No, Creation Science and AGW supporters are of the same ilk. Both go into it looking for evidence to prove their faith while ignoring any detractions. AGW is just the Creation Science of the left.

Abiogenesis is like AGW : All Models, little to no Meat.

HeadSet says

No, Creation Science and AGW supporters are of the same ilk.

I said AGW SKEPTICS. You responded to my post exactly the way the post predicted an AGW skeptic would, when that wasn't even the topic.

Automan Empire says

That the microcosm and short duration of the experiment didn't produce base pairs doesn't prove it couldn't have happened in the actual world. It DID prove that SOME of the building blocks of life form abiotically. I notice creationists and AGW skeptics treat science like cancel culture. Because one study didn't produce a grand unifying theory THIS COMPLETELY DEBUNKS THE ENTIRE CLAIM AND PROVES EVERYONE WHO BELIEVED IT IS FULL OF SHIT. Not how it works outside of lay publications.

"Just because there hasn't been a miracle in the past century doesn't mean there won't be one"

The Grand Unifying Theory is a straw man. Let's get to demonstrating some information carrying, self-replicating things not dependent on currently existing life + byproducrts first. Don't have to be perfect, just something. The claim that Abiogenesis skeptics are asking for a full up simple cell with RNA/DNA or at least just RNA out of an experiment is a strawman. Of course, with very unstable ribose (not to mention a bunch of other things) being absolutely necessary for any kind of life as we know it existing outside a some kind of membrane to keep the outside out and the inside in. That's one of the big issues: even super simple life ain't all that simple when you get down into the nitty-gritty.

The burden of proof is on the Proffer.

That organic compounds are created given reducing and other conditions is not the creation of life. Pretty much every experiment hailed as "A huge step in proving abiogenesis" involves using enzymes and other byproducts of already living things, like Yeast. Invalid, because the part that must be proved is how you get to living things to produce those results without the prior existence of living things and their byproducts.

The way Abiogenesists get angry and huffy about valid criticism is not much different than when ANY belief system being challenged, be it YEC, AGW, Yakob the Devil, etc.

Anybody for a separate thread?

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says

Anybody for a separate thread?

Took the initiative.

https://patrick.net/post/1342250/2021-11-03-life-was-it-made-or-did-it-just-happen

Automan Empire says

HeadSet says

No, Creation Science and AGW supporters are of the same ilk.

I said AGW SKEPTICS. You responded to my post exactly the way the post predicted an AGW skeptic would, when that wasn't even the topic.

I knew what you wrote. And it is still correct - AGW support is not a conclusion based on scientific evidence, but rather a political faith. You show that yourself by the term "AGW Skeptic" as if that term implies evil. True scientists are always skeptical and need actual reproduceable proof.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/doug-ford-refuses-to-make-covid-19-vaccines-mandatory-for-ontario-hospital-workers-1.5650760

richwicks says

If there is a God, there's no human expert or authority on it.

^^^^^. Although, the Pope would beg to differ with you on this. I am NOT a fan of the Pope.

https://www.covidglobalnews.live/health/around-40k-nurses-and-health-care-professionals-about-to-walkout/

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/welcome-to-the-hospital-california

welcome to the hospital california
you can check in any time you like, but there might not be any doctors...

el gato malo
1 hr ago

president brandon and his merry band of miscreants have been busy mandating covid vaccines for health care workers. many states have done so as well.

this is going to create severe staffing crunches.

18% of front line HCW’s are not planning to vaccinate.

this rises to 24% in nursing homes.

this winter when hospitals are having “weather disruptions” like american and southwest airlines because the winds of “i do not wish to be vaccinated against my will” among health workers are reaching gale force, just remember:

this is not covid.

this is bad policy.

this is literally an attempt by health officials to:

“make hospitals and assisted living facilities safe by preventing doctors and nurses from making healthcare choices.”
no sane public health official would do this.

this has NOTHING to do with a virus. if it did, you’d trust acquired immunity and the medical judgement of doctors.

these people are wreckers.
they WANT these systems to break. they want a hospital crisis because that will create “an emergency” that allows them to step in and regulate or grab control or nationalize.

do NOT fall for this. this is a game of chicken and the doctors who want to have their own bodies be their own choice are in the right.

support health workers as they strike and stand up for themselves.

they were there for us. be there for them.

not only is this the morally correct thing to do, but it’s also in your own self-interest if you ever again want to be able to have your own medical choices be between you and your chosen physician.

can you seriously believe that a system that will not allow doctors to make THEIR OWN healthcare choices can be trusted to let them help you make YOURS?

this is not about your health, it’s about their power. their regulatory edifice seeks to subsume all of healthcare and to do it, they’re seeing to BREAK all healthcare.

this will not be market failure.
this will be market sabotage.
be sure you blame the right people.

and be sure you repay wreckers with being wrecked in return.

I believe the CDC has an "Honor System" or "Ask but don't verify" system of COVID vaccine verification.

https://strongandfreecanada.org/vlog/special-release-alberta-frontline-workers-ejected-from-our-hospitals-for-not-getting-the-vaccine/?source=patrick.net

Today, Monday December 13 an unknown number of frontline health care workers were ejected from Alberta hospitals for exercising their right to bodily autonomy. In this 2 minute video physiotherapy assistant Lidia Konkel records her forced dismissal. Listen to the whole recording. Video content starts at 1:15. Watch for Will’s upcoming interview with Lidia.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-hospitals-drop-covid-19-vaccine-mandates-to-ease-labor-shortages-11639396806?source=patrick.net

https://strongandfreecanada.org/vlog/exclusive-frontline-tech-reveals-high-number-of-vaccine-injuries-in-our-hospitals-anonymous-interview-with-lola/?source=patrick.net

‘Lola’ is a technician in a major Canadian hospital. In this exclusive interview Lola reveals the marked difference between what the media and government are telling the public and what she was actually seeing in the hospital.

On hospital under-staffing before and in the midst of this “pandemic”…

Prior to the pandemic healthcare funding was pretty miniscule. The hospital staff were being forced to do more with less. Work volumes were on the increase, almost impossible to manage yet across the hospital requests for more staffing were denied due to insufficient funding as claimed by hospital [executives]. This began about five or six years ago and progressively became worse. Just before 2020 getting a day off would be difficult because there were not enough staff. As a result, overall morale was not great.

On how the hospital manages safety protocols; then and now…

At the beginning patients who were diagnosed as having COVID or those who were suspected of having it were restricted in transport of routes they can take to move around from their room, specific routes or elevators in the hospital. Then these routes had to be cleaned immediately after use before anyone else could use it. That was deemed unnecessary after some time. These patients could be transported wherever they had to go by taking any route. It seems risky to me, to eradicate such high levels of precautions and of preventing the spread of infection, if this perceived dangerous pathogen was so deadly.

On the lack of Covid cases among hospital workers…

I worked this entire pandemic and I did not contract COVID more importantly, our department was such high traffic of patients from outside, emergency room, inpatient, ICUs [that] never had an outbreak of COVID. Not one technologist in our department that I know of tested positive for COVID.

On the common injuries you witness in the hospitals, post injection roll-out…

I saw patients themselves claim that what they are experiencing is due to these therapies. One patient in their fifties or sixties claimed that they began having neurological symptoms. This patient was very scared of getting their second dose because they felt so awful after the first and they were not believed. Another person claimed that they had an enlarged lymph node under their arm after they received the injection. A woman in her forties ceased to have a menstrual cycle post-injection of this therapy. A young patient experienced a case of DVT after their first dose and their leg remained swollen even a few months after and then experienced a pulmonary embolism after their second dose.

https://notthebee.com/article/hospitals-are-begging-nurses-to-return-after-canning-them-for-being-unvaxxed?source=patrick.net

Unvaxxed nurses were asked to come back to work because of staffing shortages

https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/hospital-tacitly-admits-that-their?source=patrick.net

Today I wanted to acknowledge Rady Children's Hospital in San Diego for their tacit admission that the vaccine mandates were never about patient safety.

Here’s a screenshot of messages sent between a nurse at the hospital who was terminated for not getting the vaccine (in grey) and another nurse (in green).

Today, the nurses at the hospital can work there even if they test positive for COVID!!!




... This never was about patient safety. It is all about forcing people to comply with the vaccine policy, not about patient safety.

And doctors and nurses who try to challenge these policies (using science) are not allowed to. I’ve never heard of a single hospital administrator that will engage in a scientific debate on this topic. Have you?

These vaccine mandates are not about science or patient safety. They never were. It is all about enforcing compliance with directives that are not based on science.

This also shows that the HPPA laws are ineffective. They can basically coerce you to show your medical records or be fired.

https://www.ntd.com/mayo-clinic-fires-700-unvaccinated-employees-weeks-after-nurses-warning_724063.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

https://notthebee.com/article/the-covid-situation-is-so-desperate-in-california-that-the-state-is-telling-healthcare-workers-who-test-positive-to-stay-on-the-job?source=patrick.net

California continues its VERY logical war against the 'Rona by ... telling Covid-positive healthcare workers to stay on the job ... after threatening to fire all unvaxxed workers 🤔

https://rumble.com/vsqovk-five-nurses-speak-out-about-what-is-really-going-on-in-hospitals.html?source=patrick.net


original link

https://www.williambernardbutler.com/he-who-pays-the-piper/?source=patrick.net

This is what health care employers should do to obey the CMS mandate and at the same time avoid risking the lives, health and safety of 10 million innocent people:

Liberally Grant Exemptions. The CMS guidance expressly states that CMS will not be auditing, examining, or questioning exemption requests. This is very good news. Employers should communicate to employees a deadline--see below--and tell employees that they must provide proof of vaccination or must provide an exemption request before the deadline. There is no harm in communciating, even formally, that because of the known and uncertain risks surrounding the shots, that the employer will trust that all employees' exemption requests are based on the employee's sincere beliefs and that the employer will therefore liberally grant exemptions.

Similar to nurses, pharmaceutical workers who know that the jab is not safe or effective are refusing the jab and getting fired for it.

https://www.ntd.com/fired-pharmaceutical-workers-explain-why-they-didnt-get-covid-19-shots_736122.html?source=patrick.net

“A lot of us were questioning the shots because they didn’t go through the proper safety and efficacy studies that are traditionally required for all medications. And being in the medical industry, part of our job is discussing safety and efficacy about our products and our competitors’ products with doctors, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners. For there not to be safety and efficacy data with these COVID shots, many of us wanted to wait,” one former Syneos employee said.

These employees didn’t view the shots as “bad.” They just wanted more data before making a decision. Many people took the shots without questioning it.

“The government said do this; it is in your best interest and you can go back to normal,” a former employee said. “As time has gone on, we’ve seen, obviously, these are not actual vaccines that inoculate you and give you immunity. And there are a lot of reports of—and people that we know personally—who have been injured from these shots, so there’s a good percentage of us that never got them. As data continued to come in, we were not going to get them.”