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Housing Crash | Incoming

By joshuatrio follow joshuatrio   2021 Aug 27, 11:25am 1,255 views   65 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share      


From: http://housingbubble.blog/?p=5085

You Chose To Buy A Home That You Can’t Afford

August 26, 2021Ben JonesUncategorized133 Comments

A report from the Atlanta Journal Consitution in Georgia. “The metro Atlanta housing market clicked into balance in July: Supply met demand and home prices stopped their rapid rise. About 12,300 homes were listed for sale last month. In the city of Atlanta, home prices are up 20% from a year ago, according to Bill Adams, president of Adams Realtors. But the change in price ranges from a decline of 3% in Candler Park to a leap of 36% in Inman Park, he said. The trend of higher prices is going to continue because there won’t be a large increase in homes listed for sale, he predicted.”

From Market Watch. “‘Although housing is expected to remain sturdy for some time, several key gauges are cooling as the pandemic-induced buying frenzy eases and elevated prices cut into affordability, particularly for first-time homebuyers,’ Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, an economist with BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a research note.”

The Chicago Tribune on Illinois. “Seneca Oaddams, 44, bought his two-flat in Roseland for $132,000 a little over two years ago. The property, which he purchased as an investment and rental property, now has an estimated worth of $250,000, according to Redfin. But having endured 17 months of the pandemic, Oaddams says it’s hard to hold on to the building. His tenant, whose rent covers approximately half of Oaddams’ monthly mortgage, lost her job at the start of the pandemic and hasn’t been able to keep up her payments.”

“‘I’m actually hopeful for the future,’ Oaddams said. ‘I’m hopeful that it’s going to get better. … It needs to get better. Who doesn’t want to own property? Why not be able to help someone as well and lessen the load on your pocket with a building, so it’s a win-win for the renter and the tenant? The problem is when the rent can’t get paid.'”

The Norwich Bulletin in Connecticut. “Mark Kulos, president of the Norwich Property Owner’s Association and a landlord with 27 units, said while there are ways today for landlords to evict people, most won’t try because a misstep under the federal moratorium can lead to heavy fines. Kulos said this affects ‘mom and pop landlords,’ who have day jobs and have an operation of 50 units or smaller, as the landlord still has to pay for mortgage, taxes and upkeep without making a profit. ‘(The landlords) are working their other jobs to pay their bills, especially if the tenants aren’t paying,’ he said.”

From CBS DFW in Texas. “Clint Cash owns a handful of rental properties in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, some of whom have tenants impacted by the pandemic. Cash and other rental property owners believe the eviction moratorium that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention enacted last year has gone on for too long with an expanding job market making it easier for people to find work. Cash says he’s sympathetic to those who still can’t pay their bills, but he says the government has put landlords in a position where they can’t either.”

“‘There’s not enough profit in it for these mom and pops to continue and pay their own bills and so they will lose their houses and those houses will thus go to foreclosure,’ he said.”

The Steamboat Pilot in Colorado. “Before casting their votes, members listened to nearly two hours of public comment from dozens of residents, most of whom were short-term rental owners, property managers or property owners who spoke in favor of short-term rentals. Michelle Williams bought her home on Bear Creek Drive in 2018, with a plan to retire in the home one day. Williams said she and her family spent four months in the home in 2020 and supported the city’s economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“To supplement the cost of owning the home until she can retire in it, Williams rents her home out to nightly renters when she is not living in it. ‘We spent an absurd amount of money downtown, as we dined out almost every night,’ Williams said. ‘We’re really good people, and we want to do the right thing and abide by rules and regulations set forth.'”

“Debby Spiker, a resident on Meadow Wood Court, said she understands many property owners need to cater to short-term renters to help pay for their homes, but that choice infringes on her quality of life. ‘I’m hearing a lot of self interest and financial ‘woe is me,’ Spiker said. ‘It’s not my fault that you chose to buy a home that you can’t afford without renting it out to carry the cost.'”

“Spiker said nightly renters have brought ‘destruction’ into her neighborhood — as nightly renters are often loud, do not pick up trash and may cause other issues in neighborhoods traditionally home to full-time families and working residents. ‘I get you want to monetize your home, but it affects me personally,’ Spiker said.”

The New York Post on California. “There is really nothing Kate Beckinsale can’t do, including sell her longtime Los Angeles home after only weeks on the market. The Brentwood property, which was listed on Aug. 2 for $3.995 million, is already in contract after it found a buyer on Aug. 20, The Post has learned. The English-born actress has enjoyed a 15-year run in the four-bedroom, five-bathroom pad she purchased for $3.595 million in 2006.”

“But this also means that she won’t be leaving with that much of a profit, considering renovation projects over the years and broker fees.”

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26   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2021 Sep 27, 8:47am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Been watching several Florida markets. Tons of homes with 25-50k price cuts and no takers.

Peak was June/July.

I think homes prices right will sell (as usual), but the bubble is popping (again).
27   Waitup   ignore (0)   2021 Sep 27, 8:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The fact is that if the fed had not stepped in and bailed out the banks, we would see an honest market today. All of you who have been waiting and renting only have your government to blame. Your govt is your enemy number one and will chose the banks/corporations over your tiny asses any day of the week.
28   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Sep 27, 8:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

joshuatrio says
The Epoch Times. “Pacaso offers ‘the modern way to buy and own a second home.’ After identifying a home to purchase, Pacaso sets up an LLC to acquire the property, then sells eight equal shares of it to interested buyers. Each share ranges from $250,000 to $1,000,000 and above, plus monthly service fees. ‘We believe they’re nothing more than a glorified timeshare. If I were a real estate agent, I would tell people this is a terrible investment,’ said Sonoma homeowner Nancy Gardner. ‘They’re paying a huge amount of money for an eighth share of a home, and you don’t even know who else will be living there.'”


Buying any shack as a rental "investment" in wine country right now is a bad idea for two reasons:

1) All kinds of regulations making short term rentals close to impossible
2) People looking for rent typically work in the hospitality industry and don't have much money to spend on rent, so the rent vs buy ratio favors renting big time. You will not even get close to covering mortgage costs.

That being said, there are some token price cuts on houses for sale, but overall the pricing trend is still up though it has slowed down considerably and some overpriced shacks that were bought during the plandemic frenzy may not have appreciated.
29   richwicks   ignore (2)   2021 Sep 27, 8:58am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Waitup says
The fact is that if the fed had not stepped in and bailed out the banks, we would see an honest market today. All of you who have been waiting and renting only have your government to blame. Your govt is your enemy number one and will chose the banks/corporations over your tiny asses any day of the week.


Well, it's pretty obvious they intend to make the next generation of paupers. You're allowing the government to fuck your kids, and your grandkids, but you get a couple of nice vacations out of the deal though, so it's worth it.
30   Bitcoin   ignore (16)   2021 Sep 28, 11:05am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

>1M homes in my community sell like hot cakes. Super low inventory, super low rates. What else is new? Market crash? Nope.
31   Vernburn   ignore (0)   2021 Sep 28, 11:13am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

So we're gonna do this again are we? Just like this board calling a crash in 2009?
32   GreaterNYCDude   ignore (0)   2021 Sep 28, 1:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Vernburn says
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

So we're gonna do this again are we? Just like this board calling a crash in 2009?


Call it as I see it. We have six months left before it all comes crashing down (again). Mabey less. At least this time I'm not in the market for a house. It was crazy times back then. We have a new generation of buyers who no not what we (Gen X) went through trying to find their first house. They will learn...what goes up comes down eventually.

Sure we don't have NINJA loans being as prevalent, but there is no way this is sustainable unless wages go up, and that's not likely. Real wages haven't increased in my lifetime, why start now?

Give them bread and circus (or fear and loathing) and the masses will be mollified.

Short housing. Short banks. Then sit back, grab the popcorn and watch the movie.
33   Booger   ignore (7)   2021 Sep 28, 2:21pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

GreaterNYCDude says
We have six months left before it all comes crashing down (again). Maybe less.


It's going to take more than 6 months. Inventory for sale is still really low and will take months to build to even get to a balanced market level.
34   AmericanKulak   ignore (1)   2021 Sep 28, 7:43pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It's gonna take a bit, but I think Central Florida has peaked.

Looking at used homes that went for $40/sq ft, maybe $100k 6 years ago, now going for $150/sq ft.
35   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2021 Sep 29, 4:57am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says
It's gonna take a bit, but I think Central Florida has peaked.

Looking at used homes that went for $40/sq ft, maybe $100k 6 years ago, now going for $150/sq ft.


Agree. We've been looking only in Florida and I'm seeing tons of price cuts in the Atlantic coastal areas now. Back in July, it was whatever number the seller could dream of. Now stuff is sitting.
36   zzyzzx   ignore (2)   2021 Sep 29, 5:29am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

joshuatrio says
I'm seeing tons of price cuts in the Atlantic coastal areas now.


Links please, because I haven't see it yet. Looking in the area around St Johns and Flagler counties.
37   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2021 Sep 29, 6:14am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

zzyzzx says
joshuatrio says
I'm seeing tons of price cuts in the Atlantic coastal areas now.


Links please, because I haven't see it yet. Looking in the area around St Johns and Flagler counties.


Just search on Zillow and realtor.com. Scroll through the listings and you'll see it.
38   RC2006   ignore (2)   2021 Sep 29, 6:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I see it cooling in idaho, more listings less bidding wars but prices are still to high. Last year was rediculous.
39   BayArea   ignore (1)   2021 Sep 29, 6:37am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Oh no child, aignt no housing crash coming round here
40   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2021 Sep 29, 6:50am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BayArea says
Oh no child, aignt no housing crash coming round here


They said that last time.
41   porkchopexpress   ignore (0)   2021 Sep 29, 6:54am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It will not happen until it does.
42   FuckCCP89   ignore (6)   2021 Sep 29, 7:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BayArea says
Oh no child, aignt no housing crash coming round here


... intil I get $3M for my shack!
43   Shaman   ignore (2)   2021 Sep 29, 7:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If the federal government defaults and inflation screams out of sight, shacks are going to double in price! Hurray?
44   HunterTits   ignore (4)   2021 Sep 29, 7:41am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Shaman says
If the federal government defaults and inflation screams out of sight, shacks are going to double in price! Hurray?


Federal government won't default. Treasury Dept can still issue Treasuries to roll over existing debt.. Social Security checks might not get mailed, but unlikely.
45   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2021 Oct 4, 6:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

http://housingbubble.blog/?p=5214

A report from the Dallas Morning News. “‘Many of you are hearing the housing market is losing some steam,’ James Gaines, the longtime economist for the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University, told members of the MetroTex Association of Realtors. ‘It does appear there is something of a slowdown in the rate of sales going on. Affordability has become an issue obviously. We are beginning to see the early signs of some sticker price stock. Incomes have not increased as rapidly as home prices and that is throwing everything out of balance.'”

The Miami Herald in Florida. “For the Michaelsons, they already know how they’ll split their time in the years ahead. Summer in East Hampton, fall in Manhattan and winter and spring in Miami. ‘Real estate is like an elevator,’ Steven Michaelson said. ‘It’s always going up. If you can own your own place, then it’s great to live in your investment.'”

The Palm Beach Post. “The median price for a home in Palm Beach County dropped for the first time in 18 months, according to a report. In August, the median price for a single-family home rang in at $480,000 — a 4% drop from July and the first decline since before the pandemic hit Florida, in February 2019.”

The Naples Daily News in Florida. “Brenda Fioretti, Broker Associate at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty, pointed out that the report showed ’24 percent of pending sales during August went back on the market during the month.'”

From Inside Nova. “Was the late-2020-into-early-2021 real-estate market really as hot-hot-hot (and chaotic) as anecdotal evidence suggests? A new analysis says maybe not. New data from Zillow’ debunks common misconceptions that all buyers had the same experience, and shows the reality for most was not as grim. The typical buyer surveyed this year submitted just two offers before one was accepted, up from one in each of the previous three years. A vast majority of buyers (88 percent) had an inspection done before they closed on their new home – another case where anecdotal evidence seemed to paint a different picture. Nearly all buyers surveyed took a private tour before putting in an offer.”

“The fall market has shown signs of cooling as home-value appreciation begins to slow and inventory continues to grow each month.”

From Housing Wire. “‘We are talking about a large number of forbearance exits, between 15,000-to-20,000 a day,’ said Karthik Kumar, global head of mortgage practice at TCS. ‘CFPB has given clear guidance saying (servicers must be) proactive, and if you feel unprepared, it’s unacceptable. The onus gets back to the servicer.'”

From DS News. “Conversations around the federal block on evictions have shifted. There is a consensus on one aspect: ‘We can’t predict the future of the industry.’ But why don’t we know? Why are better predictive analytics not available for investors, servicers, and field service providers to help hazard an educated guess? Many believe that properties may be in a better condition, but others estimate that homes will be found in a much worse condition than standard default inventory. The reasons that feed into this last case are a vast and varied collection of variables that boil down to not having the data available to make any ripe estimations.”

“Under the temporary suspension order, property inspections for loans with a CARES Act forbearance are not required if the loan is current or had not reached the 60th day of delinquency when the borrower requested a forbearance. Still, inspections are required for vacant or abandoned properties. Assuming that borrowers in forbearance are truly occupying the home carries an incredible risk particularly for servicers. Knowing a home is vacant allows servicers to proceed with a fitting response regardless of the moratorium.”

“These assets have not reached delinquency keeping servicers from issuing non-claimable inspections. Non-claimable inspections are necessary and servicer actions cannot be rationalized solely by claimability and bottom line. If a servicer fails to determine an accurate occupancy status at first-time vacancy (FTV), much of the work may not be claimable since it could be deemed as mortgagee neglect or servicing error or could result in demand for reimbursement. All these outcomes can be costly to the servicer, making it imperative to know the true FTV to reduce their exposure.”

“There is general consensus to go that extra mile with nearly all industry leaders reporting that servicers should strengthen FTV to protect their interests despite the upfront, out-of-pocket costs of inspecting occupied homes. This begs the question: why haven’t they? Is it simply because they do not want to challenge the status quo?”
46   HunterTits   ignore (4)   2021 Oct 4, 6:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I don't see it happening in the Bay Area. Home I grew up in in a crappy neighborhood of San Jose is now 'worth' $1.2 million.
47   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Oct 4, 8:12am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HunterTits says
I don't see it happening in the Bay Area. Home I grew up in in a crappy neighborhood of San Jose is now 'worth' $1.2 million.


The reason is the immigrant pressure and the downgrading of housing, i.e. what used to be a crapshack is now considered a "gem", "old Victorian with charm" etc. etc. so everybody is piling on the crapshacks and it pushes prices up for most except for upper-class/luxury dwellings.
48   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (1)   2021 Oct 4, 8:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HunterTits says
I don't see it happening in the Bay Area. Home I grew up in in a crappy neighborhood of San Jose is now 'worth' $1.2 million.


I am becoming open minded that stuff is changing around here. During the closures, since the gym was closed instead of using the treadmills and pools I walked streets in every neighborhood in San Jose. I liked doing this, as I learned something each walk, so when the gym reopened I continue the walks. (I would jog but the pounding is too hard on the knee joints). In addition to the walking, nearly two years of driving/delivering for Meals On Wheels. I am beginning to know the streets of San Jose like a London taxi driver knows the streets of his city.

What I see is a frenzy in the housing. In working class neighborhoods like HunterTits cited, (I live in one of those) I see households crammed full of adults. Cars belonging to these folks parked all over the place, making it difficult to find a spot. This is congruent with the culdesac of million dollar crapshacks I live on, where a bit more than half the 1200 sq crap shacks have people crammed into a few small rooms and spilling over into garages, and sheds or trailers parked in backyards. I have delivered to many such "clients" living in such garages and trailers/sheds.

I've walked through and delivered to many neighborhoods that decades ago I would not dare to set foot in, even during daylight, and expect to come out alive. But it's not your daddy's Silicon Valley any more. Thuggish denizens are mostly all gone, gentrified and priced out. As Latinos and lower class whites moved out, those are filled in mainly with Vietnamese Workaholics, extended families pooling their resources for the privilege of being crammed into the small crapshacks. During the workday, only the old grandparents can be seen, looking after their gardens or preschool grandkids. At night, the overworked adults return, turning the streets into massive parking lots. These formerly dangerous neighborhoods are now safe for a Haolie like me to walk alone, even at night.

It's not just the blue collar neighborhoods with this stuff going on. More affluent neighborhoods are doing it also, though more discreetly: carving out a part of their homes as a studio rental with separate entrance, and/or (seen both at the same residence all over the region) granny cottage in back. Again, putting curbside parking at a premium.

If you wanna live like in the overcrowded frenzied cities of Asia, then this is the place for you.
49   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Oct 4, 8:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Anyone know where to find income data? Has income really grown 30, 40 or 50% in the last 3-4 years? I don't think so.
50   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (1)   2021 Oct 4, 8:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WineHorror1 says
Anyone know where to find income data? Has income really grown 30, 40 or 50% in the last 3-4 years? I don't think so.

WineHorror, read my comment above. Where I live, household income is increased by adding working adults to the money pool, even if wages are declining, household income rising. Hardworking extended family members pooling their money for the privilege to live in overcrowded conditions. Even so, compared to where they came from this is like the Wide Open Prairie at Bargain Prices.
51   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Oct 4, 9:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
WineHorror1 says
Anyone know where to find income data? Has income really grown 30, 40 or 50% in the last 3-4 years? I don't think so.

WineHorror, read my comment above. Where I live, household income is increased by adding working adults to the money pool, even if wages are declining, household income rising. Hardworking extended family members pooling their money for the privilege to live in overcrowded conditions. Even so, compared to where they came from this is like the Wide Open Prairie at Bargain Prices.

Gotcha, I see the point of your comment now. America is toast. A person had better get 1) some damn good in demand skills, 2) build up a damn good business or 3) have some serious social capital. Better yet, all 3.
52   AmericanKulak   ignore (1)   2021 Oct 4, 9:49am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Don't you want large extended families to destroy the nuclear family in suburbia?
53   Robert Sproul   ignore (0)   2021 Oct 4, 10:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
Where I live, household income is increased by adding working adults to the money pool

A lot of cultures accommodate this lifestyle.
One notable exception is the host culture that immigrants find here when they come and which is very easy to exploit as you point out.
54   Robert Sproul   ignore (0)   2021 Oct 4, 10:15am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says
Don't you want large extended families to destroy the nuclear family in suburbia?

I think we are going to have to adapt and even then are going to be pretty quickly out done. The multi-generational Gringo households that I know are NOT everybody-is-working-multiple-paycheck houses.
55   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Oct 28, 1:46am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

https://nitter.net/Not_Jim_Cramer/status/1453440421430919172#m


Not Jim Cramer
@Not_Jim_Cramer
13h
Why would margin debt and home prices have a 96% correlation?

Because they're both risk-on responses to Fed Policy (courtesy @hedgopia).



https://nitter.net/pic/media%2FFCunx1iUYAQiFWd.png


https://nitter.net/pic/media%2FFCuoHE0VkAEf1af.png
56   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Oct 28, 4:13am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
https://nitter.net/Not_Jim_Cramer/status/1453440421430919172#m


Not Jim Cramer
@Not_Jim_Cramer
13h
Why would margin debt and home prices have a 96% correlation?

Because they're both risk-on responses to Fed Policy (courtesy @hedgopia).



https://nitter.net/pic/media%2FFCunx1iUYAQiFWd.png


https://nitter.net/pic/media%2FFCuoHE0VkAEf1af.png

What does this data mean?
57   noobster   ignore (0)   2021 Oct 28, 7:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What exactly is fed MARGIN debt? Is it different than regular fed debt?
58   HunterTits   ignore (4)   2021 Oct 31, 9:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

noobster says
What exactly is fed MARGIN debt? Is it different than regular fed debt?


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margin_debt.asp
59   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Oct 31, 9:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Right, but I think noobster was asking specifically how the Fed could have margin debt. Who would it borrow from?

The Fed literally creates money to lend to the government, so the idea that the Fed would borrow at all is odd.
60   porkchopexpress   ignore (0)   2021 Oct 31, 10:12pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Lending Tree
62   just_passing_through   ignore (8)   2021 Nov 7, 7:43pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

porkchopexpress says
Lending Tree


I am literally 2 weeks away from getting my final payment from them. I quit making new loans 3 years ago. Too much work for too little gain. In particular once they started giving the best deals to banks.

My average is something like 9% though.
63   Eman   ignore (0)   2021 Nov 7, 9:21pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

GreaterNYCDude says
Short housing. Short banks. Then sit back, grab the popcorn and watch the movie.


Really? Is Michael Burry shorting the housing market this time? Nope, he’s been shorting TSLA and getting his ass kicked.

Home prices have been going up due to the lack of inventory coupled with super low interest rates and people have been making money from the stock market especially in the Bay Area. It’s the law of supply and demand.

It will be a slow bleed this time around. No crash
64   Eric Holder   ignore (0)   2021 Nov 8, 12:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Eman says
GreaterNYCDude says
Short housing. Short banks. Then sit back, grab the popcorn and watch the movie.


Really? Is Michael Burry shorting the housing market this time? Nope, he’s been shorting TSLA and getting his ass kicked.

Home prices have been going up due to the lack of inventory coupled with super low interest rates and people have been making money from the stock market especially in the Bay Area. It’s the law of supply and demand.

It will be a slow bleed this time around. No crash


And the fucking lenders really crawl up your ass this time to check whether you really-really capable of paying the fucking mortgage. I've just went through a refi - a refi! - which lowered my payments w/o cash-out or extending the length of the loan and they still put me through the ringer. I even had to write statements asserting that I have no financial interest in the houses I rented 10-15 years ago! It's a fucking madness.
65   zzyzzx   ignore (2)   2021 Nov 8, 4:58am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Eric Holder says
And the fucking lenders really crawl up your ass this time to check whether you really-really capable of paying the fucking mortgage. I've just went through a refi - a refi! - which lowered my payments w/o cash-out or extending the length of the loan and they still put me through the ringer. I even had to write statements asserting that I have no financial interest in the houses I rented 10-15 years ago! It's a fucking madness.


Yet still another reason to pay cash.

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