patrick.net

Perhaps the biggest change in recent years is this: the United States now has an interest in a Russian assault because it would be Russia’s last war.

Demographics have told us for 30 years that the United States will not only outlive Russia, but do so easily. The question has always been how to manage Russia's decline with an eye towards avoiding gross destruction. A Russian-Ukrainian war would keep the bulk of the Russian army bottled up in an occupation that would be equal parts desperate and narcissistic and protracted until such time that Russia’s terminal demography transforms that army into a powerless husk. And all that would transpire on a patch of territory in which the United States has minimal strategic interests.

That’s rough for the Ukrainians, but from the American point of view, it is difficult to imagine a better, more thorough, and above all safer way for Russia to commit suicide.