patrick.net

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/maple-leave-tuesday-january-7-2025

The trouble for capital-S Science is that the climate scientists who worship the current political climate model have long relied on their models to forecast planetary doom unless vastly expensive measures using your tax dollars and curtailing your freedom are undertaken immediately and without argument. ...

The main reason the climate models are wrong is that they don’t account for the higher atmospheric water vapor levels resulting from the historic Hunga Tonga undersea eruption, or the high solar activity producing historic aurora all over the planet’s night skies (but apparently the “experts” think all that extra energy has no effect whatsoever on the climate).

The truth is that, if they want to vacation in Aspen this year, climate model scientists must remain politically muzzled. They may only put variables into their models related to human activity. No permission structure allows them to consider the real causes of what the article described as “far weirder weather” than the models predicted.

Under the rule limiting what variables are allowed to go into them, the climate models are condemned to failure.

The_Deplorable says

Couple things, water vapor absorbance across the far IR spectrum swamps the CO2 windows (first image). But CO2 absorbance IS relevant to the range of earth-emitting far IR, just far less than water vapor. Earth’s far IR emission range is a rounded, Gaussian-type plot (second image), emitting up to and beyond 15 um, the beginning of CO2’s main absorption range. IR at 15 um is at lower intensity than the 10 um peak, but still present.

goofus says

"CO2 absorbance IS relevant to the range of earth-emitting far IR..."

No. Earth is not emitting radiation in the far IR range which is -80°F and lower! Given
that the Earth Temperature is about 59°F then Earth is radiating unimpeded into space
at 10 microns.
PROOF: During the Paleozoic, Earth experienced an Ice Age for 40 million years at a
CO2 level of 4,200 ppm. And that high amount of CO2 did not prevent the Ice Age from
happening. Therefore CO2 is not warming anything.

The_Deplorable says

goofus says

"CO2 absorbance IS relevant to the range of earth-emitting far IR..."

No. Earth is not emitting radiation in the far IR range which is -80°F and lower! Given
that the Earth Temperature is about 59°F then Earth is radiating unimpeded into space
at 10 microns.

Look at the plot above. While earth-emitted IR peaks at 10 um for 303K (30C), it has tails on both sides. Earth radiates at a variety of far IR wavelengths depending on latitude, albedo, etc. 59F may be the planetary average but a whole range of wavelengths (and radiating temps) are covered to reach that average. IR at 15 um is not -80F. Can calculate at home; driving now.

I’m sure not wedded to the idea of CO2 as driver for climate change. Geologic record is enough to realize the fallacy. That and realizing Malenkovich cycles explain the last million years of ice age cycles far better than greenhouse gases. But “our side” should take more care with the claims.

The_Deplorable says

goofus says

"CO2 absorbance IS relevant to the range of earth-emitting far IR..."

No. Earth is not emitting radiation in the far IR range which is -80°F and lower!

You’re right, whoops. Plugging 15 um in for wavelength gives 193K or -80C. Temp drops quickly with this equation..


Physics.stackexchange.com

goofus says

"Hence your values are around a factor of 5 too high."

Note that according to Wien's displacement law, the peak wavelength is inversely
proportional to temperature, and given that Earth is about 59°F then Earth is
radiating heat energy at 10 microns. Given other scientific data and observations,
radiation emitted at 15 microns is so minute to be negligible, meaning, CO2 is not
warming our planet.

Honest question. Does anyone actually care about the climate? Somehow we're here now and managed to stay alive. We have an 8ºF, 5, 6 with lows of -4, -9 and 1 next week. We don't have snow, but this winter has been brutally cold here in IL.

I really don't get how weather got politicized. Weather is gonna weather. We have no choice. I mean we traveled across the Rockies from East to West in wagons. Managed that somehow. Not sure the infatuation by some with climate (not here). Live life and have a good time. We're on a huge ball circling around a level 100 fucking volcano that we have no control over.

Won't be our lifetime, I think, but this planet will be pulverized at some point. Can't control what you can't control. I give no shits about climate. Have fun.

WookieMan says

Won't be our lifetime, I think, but this planet will be pulverized at some point.

Spoiler alert for those who have chosen to live in ignorance.

King James Bible
“But the day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night; in the which the heavens shall pass away with a great noise, and the elements shall melt with fervent heat, the earth also and the works that are therein shall be burned up.”

The thing is this could happen in your lifetime. God promised to rescue all believers from this time of wrath to come, but after the rapture, get ready because it will be as close to hell as possible on this earth. And those who reject God’s gift of salvation still, will know real hell.

PeopleUnited says

The thing is this could happen in your lifetime. God promised to rescue all believers from this time of wrath to come, but after the rapture, get ready because it will be as close to hell as possible on this earth. And those who reject God’s gift of salvation still, will know real hell.

I'm not getting into religious arguments. I'm a non-fiction guy. I was more or less talking of an astroid hit or something like that. Yellowstone blowing up. Natural stuff that can be guessed like a broken clock being right 2 times a day.

I could make any proclamation today but it could be 3042 before it happens. Doesn't mean I was right. Stuff is always going to happen and a fictional character has no more control over it than John Wick does.

You misconstrue fact with fiction. Prophecy is not a prediction, it is a promise. Just like God promised to send Jesus (hint Jesus walked the earth 2000 years ago just as God promised would happen about 6000 years ago) and he also promises to destroy and rebuild this world. The best way to understand it is to realize that Gods promises are always true. It’s as if it has already happened.

It has been pretty cold in wine country now for weeks, def colder than the norm. Also the whole winter in CA has already been wetter than average. They have nowhere to hide

Colder and dryer than usual in my neck of the woods this winter so far.

Patrick says

He does not care as he has already cashed the checks. I am sure Gore has contempt for the idiots that consider him an AGW crusader as he flies around in private jets and lives in energy sucking mansions.

Still better than the "Climate Czar" under Biden, who took a private jet to Iceland to receive an award for being a top environmentalist.

mell says

It has been pretty cold in wine country now for weeks, def colder than the norm. Also the whole winter in CA has already been wetter than average. They have nowhere to hide

Normal here in IL. Cold snap for two days but that's no biggie. Little snow for this time of year. 3-4" total. Feb is usually when we get the blizzards though so we'll see. My kids are wearing shorts most of the time. Our 20 if CA's 45-50.

mell says

It has been pretty cold in wine country now for weeks, def colder than the norm. Also the whole winter in CA has already been wetter than average. They have nowhere to hide

I dunno about the wetter part: the snow is shit at Kirkwood.

RWSGFY says

mell says

It has been pretty cold in wine country now for weeks, def colder than the norm. Also the whole winter in CA has already been wetter than average. They have nowhere to hide

I dunno about the wetter part: the snow is shit at Kirkwood.

I don't check the Sierras but 38" base seems low by end of January. But it's generally bad across the Rockies as well. I usually like to sneak in a long weekend to MT, but the snowpack is so low and 80% open, so not worth the flight at the moment.

It's higher in Wisconsin than the Sierras and Rockies. Yes they do snowmaking, but our numbers are higher at 1k'. Bridger in MT is doing okay at 50" base. Big Sky is about the same as Kirkwood. I've been when it was 200" this time of year out there. MT I get free lodging so I don't even check CO or UT. I'm not dropping $2k on a solo trip.

zzyzzx says

Milton. My folks had property there. That's a fuck ton of snow even for IL. Our max is usually 14-20" and we're constantly cold in the winter and that's a once a 5 year event. We do get a weird break for 5-6 days of 40's. Summer in January.

Almost 10"'s is insane for FL close to a body of water like that. Must have been west and northern winds. The Gulf of America is warmer(ish), but it would have eaten the cold up.

I worry about a global cooling more than warming. I can deal with heat and sun. I usually wear long sleeves and pants in the summer. I burn easily and don't mind a little sweat. Stay hydrated.

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU RENAME GULF OF MEXICO INTO GULF OF AMERICA!!! MEXICO IS WARM, AMERICA IS COLD!!! GET IT?

zzyzzx says

I wonder if the cold snap may kill off those invasive pythons.

Eric Holder says

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU RENAME GULF OF MEXICO INTO GULF OF AMERICA!!! MEXICO IS WARM, AMERICA IS COLD!!!

Good point, lets rename DC to the District of Colombia.

zzyzzx says

Jesus. That ain't gonna end well. Southerners have zero clue how to drive in the snow.

The_Deplorable says

Don't care about either generally speaking. Cows I like to eat. Keep 'em. Planes and sometimes private. Keep 'em. I don't get how either ever became an issue.

The issue should be with other countries. I remember when Chicago had massive smog. Blamed it on cars. Nope. Two coal fired power plants in a major city that would ramp up in the summer. They shut those down and it went away.

I'm not saying shut down coal either. It was the specific locations being in the city. It was stupid in modern times. I don't know volume, but it takes a shit ton of coal to produce power. I'll walk outside and be like someone is grilling when they start their charcoal grill. Times that by 100k.

Transmission lines are expensive, but put coal plants in the middle of no where. Or obviously make more nukes besides one in 30-40 years or whatever it was. I know there will be NIMBYism but get over it.