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There will be a diplomatic solution and this will be a tempest in a teapot. Place your bets.
mell saysFact is that people living in Russia, whether life is glorious or not there, have quite a lot of freedom as long as they don't become vocal political opponents
Umm, you may want to say that sentence out loud -"have quite a lot of freedom as long as they don't become vocal political opponents."
Like in Canada, Australia, NZ, and partially the US if you work in specific sectors.
mell saysLike in Canada, Australia, NZ, and partially the US if you work in specific sectors.
No doubt. I was not commenting on relative freedoms between countries, I was pointing out the wording - "have quite a lot of freedom as long as they don't become vocal political opponents." That is like saying "You have freedom until you try and use it."
JOHN MEARSHEIMER: I am worried about escalation. In my opinion, it can take two forms. The one that scared me the most was one where the Russians were losing. Let's say that the American plan to bring the Russians to their knees was working. Yeah, let's assume it worked out. I believe the Russians would have used nuclear weapons. Or to put it in more qualified terms, it's highly likely that the Russians would have used nuclear weapons.
JOHN MEARSHEIMER: I am worried about escalation. In my opinion, it can take two forms. The one that scared me the most was one where the Russians were losing. Let's say that the American plan to bring the Russians to their knees was working. Yeah, let's assume it worked out. I believe the Russians would have used nuclear weapons. Or to put it in more qualified terms, it's highly likely that the Russians would have used nuclear weapons.
https://glennloury.substack.com/p/is-it-only-a-matter-of-time-for-ukraine
This stupid cunt again? Why do people keep quoting an idiot who has a perfect 100% track record of failed predictions? Mickey-fucking-Mouse has more credibility than that clown.
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What does this mean for you? Will you see Russian nuclear warheads raining down on Europe, the US, etc? Let us get some perspective here. Russia is a giant landmass that covers 7 time zones. It has a population of 140 million people that is declining due to massive alcoholism, Covid-19, and AIDS. (Russia now imports farmers from India and gives them farmland to work.)
Let us compare Russia to the greater New York City metropolitan area. New York City has roughly the same gross domestic product as Russia. The New York City greater metropolitan area contains 8% of the US industrial capacity. This is equal to the total industrial capacity of Russia.
What I have seen with my own eyes is that small mistakes and misunderstandings can accumulate until they become a disaster. This whole situation with Russia is very dangerous because of the high probability of a miscalculation or mistake leading to a large-scale armed conflict.
What you will see is gasoline and natural gas prices go much higher. The US, Canada, Brasil, Argentina, etc. have good local supplies of oil and gas. Europe is not in that position with the exception of, perhaps, Norway. Natural gas not only heats apartments and homes but is also a building block in the production of fertilizer that is vital for farmers to grow crops. Countries with natural gas in the ground will be able to buy gas at some price (if local people can afford it.) Europe could see a situation where there is little natural gas available.
Financial markets will tumble in a panic over the conflict. Your retirement investments will be hurt. Even China and Japan, and India will be hit hard. Economies around the world will slip into recession.
The Russian people will suffer greatly as crippling sanctions kick in. They will also see tens of thousands of their sons, brothers, husbands, sisters, wives, etc. dying on very lethal battlefields. Vladimir Putin will be faced with massive protests and civil unrest that could topple his regime. Think about what happens when a wild and violent animal finds itself cornered. I will leave all of you to reflect on this.