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132
richwicks
2022 Feb 24, 6:57pm
richwicks
2022 Feb 24, 6:57pm
Bd6r says
I'm pointing out that all polls pointed to Clinton winning, and as a result it was predicted that Clinton couldn't possibly lose.
I took the hard version of statistics in college as an engineer - mathematician stats. I did it in the summer, thinking "how hard can stats be?" It was the hardest class I ever took, and I forgot a lot of that (thankfully) but I remember one thing very clearly:
When two statistical samples with a margin of error don't overlap, that means at least one of the samples is erroneous in some way - either that or you just won the lottery 3 times in a row. That happened constantly in 2016. Happened in 2020 as well. There are no pollsters, they are all independent liars. The "results" are intended to drive the population, they don't reflect the actual population at all. They are just propaganda.
They came up with all sorts of excuses as to why they were wrong - they called landlines, people were afraid to tell them their true intentions, etc - these are all lies. In any given sample that sample would be equally afraid to tell them their true intentions, and the polls would closely align. They are entirely false.
When you have 80% / 20% +/-3% and 70% / 30% +/-3% - that means that out of 3 sigma points, it could be 77% / 23% and 73% / 27% - there's no overlap. That is statistically impossible. If it was legitimate polling, both companies would scramble to find their error or prove their competitor was in error. That never happened. They were lying. They were blatantly lying.
richwicks saysClinton had a 99% chance of winning in 2016 - did that work?
99% was in the minds of educated yet idiot class. Rust belt working class thought otherwise
I'm pointing out that all polls pointed to Clinton winning, and as a result it was predicted that Clinton couldn't possibly lose.
I took the hard version of statistics in college as an engineer - mathematician stats. I did it in the summer, thinking "how hard can stats be?" It was the hardest class I ever took, and I forgot a lot of that (thankfully) but I remember one thing very clearly:
When two statistical samples with a margin of error don't overlap, that means at least one of the samples is erroneous in some way - either that or you just won the lottery 3 times in a row. That happened constantly in 2016. Happened in 2020 as well. There are no pollsters, they are all independent liars. The "results" are intended to drive the population, they don't reflect the actual population at all. They are just propaganda.
They came up with all sorts of excuses as to why they were wrong - they called landlines, people were afraid to tell them their true intentions, etc - these are all lies. In any given sample that sample would be equally afraid to tell them their true intentions, and the polls would closely align. They are entirely false.
When you have 80% / 20% +/-3% and 70% / 30% +/-3% - that means that out of 3 sigma points, it could be 77% / 23% and 73% / 27% - there's no overlap. That is statistically impossible. If it was legitimate polling, both companies would scramble to find their error or prove their competitor was in error. That never happened. They were lying. They were blatantly lying.
133
AmericanKulak
2022 Feb 24, 6:59pm
AmericanKulak
2022 Feb 24, 6:59pm
One the other hand, the Kiev RUS fled North to the Moscow woods when the Mongols attacked.
Tsars like Ivan the Awesome ("Terrible" has changed it's meaning over the centuries, like "Cynic" no longer means Hippy-like) enrolled the Christian Cossacks of what is today the Ukraine. Eventually, as the Mongol Hordes and successor states (Nogai, Crimean Horde) fell under the hooves of the Cossacks with the help of the Russian Streltsy, most of the Cossacks enlisted with the Tsar and so their territories became part of Russia. Some cossacks served the Poles.
By Tsarina Catherine (a German by ancestry, btw), Russia controlled most of Ukraine, which is majority Orthodox, uses Cyrillic, and whose Cossacks and Peasants have long been part of the Russian Empire.
Sometimes they revolted against the Poles, who have a reputation in as being "Evil, Conniving Greedy Petty Nobility Landlords" which is hilarious as Poles have the reputation of being "Dumb Workaholics" in the West.
In any case, Crimea and at least the Eastern parts of Ukraine have been Russian for centuries. Ukraine has only been an independent country for about 30 years. Even in the old days, it was either ruled by Mongol Hordes or before that, a collection of loose city-states based under the occasional Viking Rus ruling from Kiev.
In Galician Fantasy land, they believe they are all Nordics descended from Vikings, fighting for their liberty against their Slavic Polish and Russian inferiors who outnumber them. Nevermind in dress, appearance, and language, they're Slavs like their neighbors and have no more Nordic blood than their Polish or Russian neighbors, a trace. This made up myth came around the end of the 19th Century Romantic Nationalist period.
This isn't necessarily a justification for Jack shit. Just an explainer of "Ukranian History" and that while there is plenty of bullshit on all sides from "Muh Nordic Galicia" to "Muh United Orthodox Slavophiles", the latter have the far better claim IMHO.
The Golden Horde being the Mongols. As you can see "Ancient Ukraine" was actually several states, none of them named "Ukraine" and all of them outside the Steppe which makes up the current majority of Ukrainian turf, since it was impossible to govern Steppe areas free from the Mongols
Tsars like Ivan the Awesome ("Terrible" has changed it's meaning over the centuries, like "Cynic" no longer means Hippy-like) enrolled the Christian Cossacks of what is today the Ukraine. Eventually, as the Mongol Hordes and successor states (Nogai, Crimean Horde) fell under the hooves of the Cossacks with the help of the Russian Streltsy, most of the Cossacks enlisted with the Tsar and so their territories became part of Russia. Some cossacks served the Poles.
By Tsarina Catherine (a German by ancestry, btw), Russia controlled most of Ukraine, which is majority Orthodox, uses Cyrillic, and whose Cossacks and Peasants have long been part of the Russian Empire.
Sometimes they revolted against the Poles, who have a reputation in as being "Evil, Conniving Greedy Petty Nobility Landlords" which is hilarious as Poles have the reputation of being "Dumb Workaholics" in the West.
In any case, Crimea and at least the Eastern parts of Ukraine have been Russian for centuries. Ukraine has only been an independent country for about 30 years. Even in the old days, it was either ruled by Mongol Hordes or before that, a collection of loose city-states based under the occasional Viking Rus ruling from Kiev.
In Galician Fantasy land, they believe they are all Nordics descended from Vikings, fighting for their liberty against their Slavic Polish and Russian inferiors who outnumber them. Nevermind in dress, appearance, and language, they're Slavs like their neighbors and have no more Nordic blood than their Polish or Russian neighbors, a trace. This made up myth came around the end of the 19th Century Romantic Nationalist period.
This isn't necessarily a justification for Jack shit. Just an explainer of "Ukranian History" and that while there is plenty of bullshit on all sides from "Muh Nordic Galicia" to "Muh United Orthodox Slavophiles", the latter have the far better claim IMHO.
The Golden Horde being the Mongols. As you can see "Ancient Ukraine" was actually several states, none of them named "Ukraine" and all of them outside the Steppe which makes up the current majority of Ukrainian turf, since it was impossible to govern Steppe areas free from the Mongols
134
AmericanKulak
2022 Feb 24, 7:11pm
AmericanKulak
2022 Feb 24, 7:11pm
"Knitting with Iron" in the mid 19th Century. As you can see, not only did Germany not exist, it certainly did not control Bohemia/Czech nor Austria.
135
richwicks
2022 Feb 24, 7:25pm
richwicks
2022 Feb 24, 7:25pm
AmericanKulak says
What "existed" as a people is written by the victors - it has no relation to reality.
The Palestinians never existed according to Israelis and it was a land without people for a people without a land. That's a total lie, but Israel beat the shit out of the Palestinians and will continue to do so. This lie will be accepted as fact in time.
"Knitting with Iron" in the mid 19th Century. As you can see, not only did Germany not exist, it certainly did not control Bohemia/Czech nor Austria.
What "existed" as a people is written by the victors - it has no relation to reality.
The Palestinians never existed according to Israelis and it was a land without people for a people without a land. That's a total lie, but Israel beat the shit out of the Palestinians and will continue to do so. This lie will be accepted as fact in time.
136
AmericanKulak
2022 Feb 24, 8:06pm
AmericanKulak
2022 Feb 24, 8:06pm
richwicks says
Okay, I'll bite on this sidebar for a second:
Yep, South Syrians who never had a state of their own, nor even a province under the Byzantines or Ottomans, and whom called themselves Arabs and rejected the term "Palestinian" until 1964 when th KGB created and urged "Plantation" (PLO) with it's leader "Aref" (Arafat, a KGB agent born in Cairo Egypt before the creation of Israel) and "Little Farm" (PFLP) to adopt it suddenly, will have their ethnic claim attempt will be shot down in time. Many other attempts at claiming ethnicities get shot down or fade with time. Nor do all ethnics have to be in one state. Unlike German States, which had distinctives esp. after the Treaty of Westpfalia such as being Lutheran or Catholic, the title of rulers and the organization of the state, there are no distinctives for "Palestinians" other than being subjects of Damascus, Cairo, Baghdad, etc. non-local rulers of similar ethnicity (Arab).
In any case, it's not relevant to this discussion, since the point was that Germany never existed until the late 19th Century as a Nation-State, and therefore could not have controlled Austria (a Nation or actually Empire for many centuries before the 19th) nor Czech/Bohemia as it was a collection of Principalities, Statelets, and city-states like Hannover or Bavaria or Papenburg.
Italy was in the same condition in the 19th Century. There were Italian States, but never an Italy until recently. The only time Italy was a nation state was back after the fall of the Roman Empire here and there during the time of Lombards. Milan, Papal States, Naples, Savoy, Venice/Venetia, but never an Italy until the 19th.
They fought each other with gusto and elan, esp. in Germany over Religion and in Italy over Pro- and Anti- HRE/Papal State influence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guelphs_and_Ghibellines
What "existed" as a people is written by the victors - it has no relation to reality.
The Palestinians never existed according to Israelis and it was a land without people for a people without a land. That's a total lie, but Israel beat the shit out of the Palestinians and will continue to do so. This lie will be accepted as fact in time.
Okay, I'll bite on this sidebar for a second:
Yep, South Syrians who never had a state of their own, nor even a province under the Byzantines or Ottomans, and whom called themselves Arabs and rejected the term "Palestinian" until 1964 when th KGB created and urged "Plantation" (PLO) with it's leader "Aref" (Arafat, a KGB agent born in Cairo Egypt before the creation of Israel) and "Little Farm" (PFLP) to adopt it suddenly, will have their ethnic claim attempt will be shot down in time. Many other attempts at claiming ethnicities get shot down or fade with time. Nor do all ethnics have to be in one state. Unlike German States, which had distinctives esp. after the Treaty of Westpfalia such as being Lutheran or Catholic, the title of rulers and the organization of the state, there are no distinctives for "Palestinians" other than being subjects of Damascus, Cairo, Baghdad, etc. non-local rulers of similar ethnicity (Arab).
In any case, it's not relevant to this discussion, since the point was that Germany never existed until the late 19th Century as a Nation-State, and therefore could not have controlled Austria (a Nation or actually Empire for many centuries before the 19th) nor Czech/Bohemia as it was a collection of Principalities, Statelets, and city-states like Hannover or Bavaria or Papenburg.
Italy was in the same condition in the 19th Century. There were Italian States, but never an Italy until recently. The only time Italy was a nation state was back after the fall of the Roman Empire here and there during the time of Lombards. Milan, Papal States, Naples, Savoy, Venice/Venetia, but never an Italy until the 19th.
They fought each other with gusto and elan, esp. in Germany over Religion and in Italy over Pro- and Anti- HRE/Papal State influence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guelphs_and_Ghibellines
137
Patrick
2022 Feb 24, 9:00pm
Patrick
2022 Feb 24, 9:00pm
Eric Holder says
No, but maybe Biden traded away the Ukraine for this favor.
Putin is Bidet's puppet?
No, but maybe Biden traded away the Ukraine for this favor.
138
mell
2022 Feb 24, 9:51pm
I thought putin was incompetent and their army a joke. At least everyone and their grandmother made fun of this guy. Now he's suddenly the world's most dangerous man. Public enemy number one. I feel so bad for the friends in the Ukraine, hope they will all be safe. What did people expect after antagonizing Russia for decades and installing a puppet govt for the US of A. They should have given up NATO membership and possibly negotiating some regional independence long ago in exchange for arming the rest of the Ukraine to the teeth with whatever they can get their hands on, incl. nukes. You know why nobody tried to invade Pakistan yet, or India (small border skirmishes with chyna aside). They should go to the table and negotiate now, still better than this war. Swap out govt with some Russia friendly puppets in exchange for keeping it neutral and guaranteeing safety for its citizens. This bloodshed is not worth it, it's not the citizens fault, they have no duty to defend their "leaders". I doubt putin wants to invade and fully control such a large country, it would open them up for too much guerilla warfare, a simple regime change may be enough. Putler may be a dicktator but he's certainly not stupid. We'll see, none of us knows enough about what's really going on. May God bless the Ukranian citizens. And Europe please grow a pair and invest in your armies, they're not there to protect high ranking politicians and the elite from the plebs as happened in commie states like canada. They are supposed to protect their citizens.
144
Patrick
2022 Feb 24, 11:16pm
Patrick
2022 Feb 24, 11:16pm
Friendly reminder that HUNTER Biden is on tape telling a hooker that Russians are blackmailing him
149
AmericanKulak
2022 Feb 24, 11:37pm
AmericanKulak
2022 Feb 24, 11:37pm
Patrick says
It's purposeful. A real "Unifyer" would never appoint a Trannie, or at least appoint him to a lower profile position so he could claim cred with the Base while keeping the general public in the dark about it.
The Culture War IS the war, it's 5th Gen Warfare. That's why I constantly harp on it. Downstream, etc.
It's purposeful. A real "Unifyer" would never appoint a Trannie, or at least appoint him to a lower profile position so he could claim cred with the Base while keeping the general public in the dark about it.
The Culture War IS the war, it's 5th Gen Warfare. That's why I constantly harp on it. Downstream, etc.
150
AmericanKulak
2022 Feb 25, 12:53am
AmericanKulak
2022 Feb 25, 12:53am
Literally everything.
Liberal Hegemonists pump up Ukraine, encourage it to be actively anti-Russia, not to make concessions. Then abandon it to it's own devices when Russia gets pissed off.
original link
Neolib-cons 1990s-2022:
"Ukraine, hate Russia. Don't work or talk with Russia. You are secret Galician Lost Vikings, not lowly Slavs! We'll help you, 100%
Oh, Russia got mad and invaded? Uh, we imposed some sanctions, see you later! No, we can't stay and help. But we'll yell Evil Russia! Evil Russia!"
Liberal Hegemonists pump up Ukraine, encourage it to be actively anti-Russia, not to make concessions. Then abandon it to it's own devices when Russia gets pissed off.
original link
Neolib-cons 1990s-2022:
"Ukraine, hate Russia. Don't work or talk with Russia. You are secret Galician Lost Vikings, not lowly Slavs! We'll help you, 100%
Oh, Russia got mad and invaded? Uh, we imposed some sanctions, see you later! No, we can't stay and help. But we'll yell Evil Russia! Evil Russia!"
151
seesaw
2022 Feb 25, 5:16am
seesaw
2022 Feb 25, 5:16am
I learn so much, reading all of you on Patrick.net
I want to learn more about Hunter Biden and his antics...
Maybe we can get him to go back to Ukraine... and make a guest appearance.
I want to learn more about Hunter Biden and his antics...
Maybe we can get him to go back to Ukraine... and make a guest appearance.
155
gabbar
2022 Feb 25, 9:41am
gabbar
2022 Feb 25, 9:41am
We are not going to restore Russia to the border of the Empire of 1913. Moscow supports the sovereignty of the former republics of the Union, but Ukraine is an exception "because of external control" - V.V. Putin at a meeting with Aliyev
156
Bd6r
2022 Feb 25, 4:13pm
Bd6r
2022 Feb 25, 4:13pm
gabbar says
Putler lies constantly, no reason to believe him on this
He was also not invading ukraine a week ago, was not invading crimea etc
We are not going to restore Russia to the border of the Empire of 1913. Moscow supports the sovereignty of the former republics of the Union, but Ukraine is an exception "because of external control" - V.V. Putin at a meeting with Aliyev
Putler lies constantly, no reason to believe him on this
He was also not invading ukraine a week ago, was not invading crimea etc
157
Bd6r
2022 Feb 25, 4:18pm
Bd6r
2022 Feb 25, 4:18pm
If Ukraine survives another few days, Russians are done.
Why do I think that - Chinese are starting to hedge - their foreign ministry had press release today about territorial integrity of countries incl Ukraine, and started sanctioning Russian banks. Second, Turkey shipped craploads of arms to Ukraine via Poland.
Why do I think that - Chinese are starting to hedge - their foreign ministry had press release today about territorial integrity of countries incl Ukraine, and started sanctioning Russian banks. Second, Turkey shipped craploads of arms to Ukraine via Poland.
158
mell
2022 Feb 25, 4:23pm
Bd6r says
That could very well be. I found it interesting that they called for diplomacy after initially trashing the US. Xi is not stupid either, Russia is a much closer threat for Chyna than the US of A.
If Ukraine survives another few days, Russians are done.
Why do I think that - Chinese are starting to hedge - their foreign ministry had press release today about territorial integrity of countries incl Ukraine, and started sanctioning Russian banks. Second, Turkey shipped craploads of arms to Ukraine via Poland.
That could very well be. I found it interesting that they called for diplomacy after initially trashing the US. Xi is not stupid either, Russia is a much closer threat for Chyna than the US of A.
159
richwicks
2022 Feb 25, 4:29pm
richwicks
2022 Feb 25, 4:29pm
AmericanKulak says
It doesn't matter if it was ever recognized as a state or a region. There were people there.
If a bunch of, I dunno, Mongolians decided to settle in Nichols Minnesota, after the United States collapsed, and the world declared it as a new country, would you then be defending this? Nichols was never a state...
This is just semantics, and it's a stupid argument, and I'm TIRED of arguing about Israel. Israel will take over the entire West Bank in time, probably will retake Gaza, and will be claiming they want "peace" and are working toward a "two state solution" the entire time. They're lying.
Dragging the conversation into "is this moral or not" is a complete waste of time. Morality has nothing to do with it. Might makes right. I'm telling you what is being done and was is inevitably going to happen. Right or wrong is written by propagandists for the "history books".
Okay, I'll bite on this sidebar for a second:
Yep, South Syrians who never had a state of their own, nor even a province under the Byzantines or Ottomans
It doesn't matter if it was ever recognized as a state or a region. There were people there.
If a bunch of, I dunno, Mongolians decided to settle in Nichols Minnesota, after the United States collapsed, and the world declared it as a new country, would you then be defending this? Nichols was never a state...
This is just semantics, and it's a stupid argument, and I'm TIRED of arguing about Israel. Israel will take over the entire West Bank in time, probably will retake Gaza, and will be claiming they want "peace" and are working toward a "two state solution" the entire time. They're lying.
Dragging the conversation into "is this moral or not" is a complete waste of time. Morality has nothing to do with it. Might makes right. I'm telling you what is being done and was is inevitably going to happen. Right or wrong is written by propagandists for the "history books".
162
mell
2022 Feb 25, 5:01pm
Bd6r says
Not really, or better not always. He never lied about being serious to get guarantees that the ex soviet border nations should stay neutral and not join nato, otherwise he'd take action. This is what the 3rd time? They should have negotiated that long ago. What he's doing now is despicable, but not surprising. I just hope most Ukranians stay safe
gabbar saysWe are not going to restore Russia to the border of the Empire of 1913. Moscow supports the sovereignty of the former republics of the Union, but Ukraine is an exception "because of external control" - V.V. Putin at a meeting with Aliyev
Putler lies constantly, no reason to believe him on this
He was also not invading ukraine a week ago, was not invading crimea etc
Not really, or better not always. He never lied about being serious to get guarantees that the ex soviet border nations should stay neutral and not join nato, otherwise he'd take action. This is what the 3rd time? They should have negotiated that long ago. What he's doing now is despicable, but not surprising. I just hope most Ukranians stay safe
170
komputodo
2022 Feb 26, 7:36am
komputodo
2022 Feb 26, 7:36am
Although the media is pumping the narrative of Russia invading the Ukraine, it seems to me that the fight is between the Ukrainian Russian Separists (supported by Russia) and the Ukrainian nationals (supported by NATO). Its appears to be a PROXY "dust-up" between Russia and Nato that just happens to be on Ukraine soil.
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Yes
No
Other answer
My take: Yes
see https://nitter.pussthecat.org/newkc14?source=patrick.net
Evacuation of civilians from Doneck, Gleiwitz-style explosions in Doneck, and a lot of shelling along border.
Less probable is that they just want to increase tensions to get something out of the West (higher oil/gas prices, promises about non-expansion of NATO, etc).
If they do invade, ZH and a lot of skeptics owe Bidet & Co an apology of sorts. Everything goes to crap if invasion happens, as in economy of the world, residual civil liberties, etc, and one can blame Russians for inflation, loss of life quality, etc, instead of real culprit Bidet.
If I'd be conspiratorial, I'd say that Bidet agents in Russia will push for Russian invasion, but on other hand current CIA and military here can only shout pronouns at enemies as seen from Afghanistan debacle.