patrick.net

I doubt Russia is afraid of the US doing something stupid.

Russian Center of Gravity since around 900AD Lake Ladoga towns -> Kiev/Konugard -> Vladimir -> Moscow

Ukraine hasn't been a functional country in 800 years. It was crushed by the Golden Horde and ruled direct, unlike forested Northern Russia which was tribuatory.

AmericanKulak says

Russian Center of Gravity since around 900AD Lake Ladoga towns -> Kiev/Konugard -> Vladimir -> Moscow

Ukraine hasn't been a functional country in 800 years. It was crushed by the Golden Horde and ruled direct, unlike forested Northern Russia which was tribuatory.

Huh? Ukraine was a part of Grand Duchy of Lithuania since 1362. Moscow was Golden Horde's bitch and paid tributes up until 1480, i.e. was Tatar's bitch 120 years longer. And then while the former went on electing their leaders and penning a Constitution (some 70 years before American one) the latter enslaved their own people and were ruled by an absolute monarchy.

original link

It's not the "liberators" doing that. That's Ukraine's civil war.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wait-second-merkel-did-what

Article provides two sources both involved in the Minsk Agreements (Merkel being the better known one) that the West never had any intention of honoring the accords, it was only to buy time for Ukraine to build up it's military.

Ukraine Loans Might Not Be Paid Back!

https://notthebee.com/article/canada-just-bought-ukraine-a-400-million-air-defense-system-their-military-has-been-asking-for-for-more-than-a-decade

The Liberal government is spending more than $400 million to buy air-defence systems for Ukraine even though the Canadian Forces has been without such equipment for more than a decade.

Defence Minister Anita Anand announced Tuesday that Canada would purchase a "National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System" and associated munitions from the United States to donate to Ukraine. A NASAMS is a short- to medium-range ground-based air-defence system that protects against drone, missile and aircraft attacks. The donation will cost Canadian taxpayers approximately $406 million.

https://twitter.com/blackintheempir/status/1614833351025721348?ref_src=patrick.net

Patrick says

Except literally half of the USSR's whole budged is "secret articles". But these probably go to unicorn farms and such.

Hugh_Mongous says

Patrick says

Except literally half of the USSR's whole budged is "secret articles". But these probably go to unicorn farms and such.

There hasn't been a USSR since 1992.

https://www.rt.com/news/569985-milley-inspects-ukrainian-troops/

Top US general inspects Ukrainian troops
Mark Milley visited a German camp to oversee the Pentagon’s newly expanded training program

That's because it's really a war of the US elite against Russia.

I still want to see the Russian oligarchs blow up Western oligarchs' yachts, private jets and mansions. Vice versa, of course.

That would end hostilities in the Ukraine real quick. An armistice would be developed with exceptional speed.

Lol, that would be fun to watch.

The money laundering from US taxpayers, through Ukraine, back to corrupt US officials and their campaign donors, continues unabated.

https://notthebee.com/article/speaking-of-sending-tanks-to-ukraine-heres-biden-nearly-a-year-ago-saying-that-sending-weapons-to-ukraine-means-world-war-3

Here's Biden last year assuring us that we wouldn't send tanks to Ukraine because that means "World War 3" 😬

I've been saying that WWIII is a good way to distract us from the ongoing genocide by toxxine.

https://notthebee.com/article/german-foreign-minister-we-are-fighting-a-war-with-russia

German foreign minister: "We are fighting a war against Russia"

NTB Staff
Jan 25, 2023

Last I checked, Germany wasn't, in fact, at war with Russia.

If it were, NATO treaties would kick in and WWIII would officially start.

Patrick says

https://notthebee.com/article/german-foreign-minister-we-are-fighting-a-war-with-russia

German foreign minister: "We are fighting a war against Russia"

NTB Staff
Jan 25, 2023

Last I checked, Germany wasn't, in fact, at war with Russia.

If it were, NATO treaties would kick in and WWIII would officially start.

treaties don’t mean much without desire

https://babylonbee.com/news/ukrainian-russian-soldiers-snap-adorable-photo-with-their-matching-american-tanks



Seems possible:

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/putin-in-negotiation-with-taliban-to-procure-us-arms-in-exchange-for-recognition-insider-articleshow.html

25th January, 2023 12:53 IST
Putin In Negotiation With Taliban To Procure US Arms In Exchange For Recognition: Insider
"Putin is overseeing negotiations with Taliban to recognise its government. In return, he is offering a major arms and military swap," channel claimed.

https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/pretend-o-rama/

“Not only is there no threat from Russia that is independent of American policy, but it is also the expansion of NATO to ‘meet the threat from Russia’ that creates the very threat that expansion was supposed to meet.” — Alistair Crooke

I doubt that many Americans — even the masses sunk in vaccine smuggery and obsessive Trump-o-phobia — believe that America’s Ukraine project is working out for us. Of course, to even begin thinking about this debacle, you must at least suspect that our government is lying about virtually everything it has its hand in. Name something it is not lying about, I dare you.

So, what is the Ukraine project about? To use that sad-ass country as a vector to disable and destroy Russia. You can’t over-state the stupidity of that objective. And why did we want to do that? Because… reasons. Oh? And what were they? Well, Russia was… there. Oh? And what was it doing? Trying to take over the world? Uh, no. It was actually just trying to be a normal European nation again after its traumatic 75-year-long experiment with communism, which ended in 1991.

And then, after that, coming along pretty well under Mr. Putin. Did I say that? Yes, I did, because it is a fact. Russia wrote new private property laws, made commerce legal again, and allowed its citizens to do business. Russia wasn’t threatening any other nations, most particularly not its former province, Ukraine. It had even invited Ukraine to be a sovereign member of its trade association, the customs union, with a bunch of other regional states who had rational interests in good regional relations. That’s what set off the maniacs at the US State Department — under Secretary John Kerry, a.k.a. the haircut-in-search-of a-brain — who, in 2014, decided to overthrow Ukraine’s government.

The project since then has been to use the US-controlled Ukraine government to antagonize Russia and, finally, to draw Russia into a military operation intended, SecDef Lloyd Austin said more than once, “to weaken Russia.” Well, everything we’ve done there, from eight years of shelling the Donbas, to kicking Russia out of the West’s banking system, to pouring billions of US dollars into Ukraine’s corrupt government, has only strengthened Russia internally, earned the approbation of many other nations who object to US interference in their regions, and steered poor Ukraine into the graveyard of failed states.

We are losing this unnecessary proxy war about as steadily as possible, and actually making Russia look good in the process. Russia could have ended the war in five minutes by turning Kiev into an ashtray, but it spent the first eight months of the operation trying to avoid busting up Ukraine’s infrastructure, so as not to turn it into a failed state (that would present new and worse problems). Mr. Putin made many overtures to negotiate an end to the conflict, all rejected by Ukraine, the US, and its NATO “partners.”

So, now Russia is grinding on-the-ground to reduce Ukraine’s ability to continue making war by systematically killing the troops Ukraine foolishly throws into the battle line, and destroying Ukraine’s heavy weapons. Ukraine is about out of its own soldiers and weapons. Russia is maneuvering to roll over what’s left there and put an end to these pointless and needless hostilities. Contrary to US propaganda, Russia has no ambition to conquer NATO territory. Rather its aim is to restore order to a corner of the world that has been its legitimate sphere of influence for centuries — and more than once been used as a doormat for European armies to invade Russia.

Apparently, we can’t allow Russia to clean up this mess we made — or we pretend that we can’t, even though it’s happening anyway, whether we like it or not. So now, the US promises to send thirty-one M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. A bold move, you think? Not exactly. By the time these tanks get anywhere in the vicinity of Ukraine, this war is likely to be over. Never mind the difficult business of training the few remaining eligible Ukrainian men between sixteen and sixty how to operate the tanks, and training maintenance crews, and delivering inventories of spare parts — you see where this is going — not to mention the certainty that the Russians will simply blow them up as fast as they appear on the premises. Anyway, a measly thirty-one tanks that can barely be operated is meaningless compared to hundreds of T-72s backed by newer T-14 tanks the Russians can muster from just over their border with Ukraine.

The tank proffer is, sad to say (for the dignity of our country), a joke, kind of a last feeble pretense before the whole thing ends in ignominy for the “Joe Biden” team — whoever that actually is. The repercussions are liable to be ugly for our country, not necessarily in terms of more military trouble in other lands (which we probably lack the capacity to engage in now), but something more personal: the collapse of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and a vicious loss of purchasing power here at home. That would provoke a situation worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, and that’s probably where things are going.

The Ukraine misadventure will disappear from America’s collective consciousness in a New York minute and a Fourth Turning jamboree of serious domestic political disorder will commence in short order. If you think “Joe Biden’s” term in office has been a disaster so far, just wait. You ain’t seen nuttin yet.

Patrick says

By the time these tanks get anywhere in the vicinity of Ukraine, this war is likely to be over.

Let's see if this prediction comes true.

HeadSet says

Patrick says

By the time these tanks get anywhere in the vicinity of Ukraine, this war is likely to be over.

Let's see if this prediction comes true.

The point for the United States is to prolong the war for as long as possible to benefit the MIC.

The point for Russia is to prolong the war for as long as possible to weaken NATO and the United States.

I would be surprised if this war is over in less than 5 years.

31 Tanks don't change shit is a war.

Tanks fall apart and need repair as often from their massive weight and maintenance requirements as they do in combat. Tanks are typically loaded on rails and transported as close to the battlefield as possible to avoid wear and tear, save fuel and logistics 'weight' (tanks make your dad's 1970s Lincoln Continental seem like a Prius in MPG), and extend operational time. The average mileage of a Modern Battle Tank before needing extensive maintenance is a few hundred miles, total.

TL;DR Tanks get fractions of a mile per gallon, and need extensive service every few hundred miles.

Also something to keep in mind: The Ukrainians cannot be servicing these tanks without many months of training. Contractor$ would be paid, assuming they even expect 31 Tanks to last long enough to bother sending them.

https://babylonbee.com/news/31-us-tanks-in-ukraine-already-destroyed-after-being-easily-recognized-by-their-rainbow-camo

World War III: Has It Begun? by Jim Rickards

Has World War III already begun?

That’s a serious question and deserves serious consideration by investors. A wave of analysts and commentators have warned that the war in Ukraine could spin out of control and escalate into World War III.

One variation on that theme is that the war could escalate into a nuclear war with tactical nuclear weapons deployed. Most point a finger at Russia as the party that will launch a nuclear strike out of desperation at a failing campaign in Ukraine.

Actually, the opposite is true.

The Russian campaign is not failing (it has been on hold for several months awaiting the right conditions to launch a winter offensive). You just don’t hear about it in the mainstream media, which is essentially a propaganda outlet for Ukraine.

And the party most likely to use nuclear weapons first is the U.S. in order to save face and destabilize Russia once Ukraine is on the brink of collapse.

Reality Check
Many people have a hard time believing that. They’ve been told that Putin is the devil incarnate and would probably like to destroy the world. We like to think that in modern times we’re sophisticated and above falling prey to propaganda. Unfortunately, it isn’t true.

The fact is the U.S. did wage the only nuclear war in history from Aug. 6–9, 1945 and had a successful outcome. I’m not getting into the morality of it here, one way or the other. I’m just being objective.

Either way, another nuclear war could not be contained and it would be tantamount to World War III. It amounts to the same thing.

But my point is different. It’s not that we may be headed to World War III; it’s that we’re already there. The issue of when wars in general and world wars in particular begin and end is not as clear cut as many believe. There are many examples.

When Does a War Officially Begin? It’s Complicated
When did World War I begin? There were many precursors including the Agadir Crisis in Morocco (1911), the Italian-Turkish War (1911–12) and the Balkan Wars (1912–1913).

Clearly, the First World War was in a countdown phase as early as 1911.

More specifically, did World War I begin with the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914? The Austria-Hungary declaration of war on Serbia on July 28, 1914? Germany’s declaration of war on Russia on Aug. 1, 1914?

The fact is the beginning of World War I (then called the Great War) was a series of blunders. There were many other mistakes in addition to those just mentioned. Of course, the U.S. did not enter World War I until April 6, 1917.

The end of World War I was also a muddle. Most students recite Nov. 11, 1918, as the day the war ended. That’s not quite right. That is the day an armistice was signed and the shooting stopped. But an armistice is a ceasefire, not a peace treaty. The actual Versailles Treaty that ended the war was signed on June 28, 1919.

There’s nothing new about blurry lines on when wars begin and end. The Korean War stopped with an armistice signed on July 27, 1953, but it’s still technically not over; there has never been a peace treaty.

The most interesting case (and the one most pertinent to the war in Ukraine) is the beginning of World War II.

When Did World War II Really Begin?
Most Americans reflexively date this from Dec. 7, 1941, when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. That’s the right date for U.S. entry, but of course, the war began on Sept. 1, 1939, when Germany invaded Poland. The U.K. and France declared war on Germany on Sept. 3.

Yet did World War II actually begin much earlier?

Japan invaded Manchuria on Sept. 18, 1931. They established a puppet regime there called Manchukuo led by Emperor Puyi (the infamous “Last Emperor” of China, and a descendant of the Qing Dynasty). This was followed by a full-scale invasion of China by Japan in 1937 and the horrific Rape of Nanjing in December 1937.

Of course, the European and Pacific theaters of World War II were different and geographically separated, but it is at least arguable that World War II began in China in 1931 or 1937 at the latest. I lean to that view personally.

And let’s not ignore the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) in which Germany bombed Guernica, Russia financed the Popular Front and mercenaries formed the International Brigades, including the American Abraham Lincoln Brigade. The spectacle of the U.S. and Russia fighting Germany on Spanish soil was a neat preview of World War II.

The influx of foreign fighters to the war in Ukraine offers a modern parallel.

The Case for the Start of World War III
So the case for fuzzy beginnings and endings of wars is clear. What’s the case for saying World War III has already begun based on the situation in Ukraine?

The first point is the number of nations directly involved. It’s nonsense to say that NATO members are cheering on Ukraine from the sidelines. Those countries are directly involved in supplying weapons, intelligence, money, ammunition and boots on the ground.

Polish troops are operating as mercenaries in Ukrainian uniforms. U.S. and U.K. special operators are inside Ukraine supplying intelligence, weapons training and help with logistics. (These special operators are often hired as contractors by the CIA and MI6 to disguise their connections to U.S. and U.K. intelligence.)

Poland and Lithuania are supplying sophisticated Leopard tanks to Ukraine. The U.K. is preparing to supply their most sophisticated tank — the Challenger II, as well. The U.S. is providing Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Stryker armored vehicles.

The U.S. is also supplying HIMARS (long-distance guided missile artillery) and Patriot anti-missile batteries. The West is providing Ukraine with ammunition, cash, drones, satellite imaging, signals intelligence (SIGINT) and human intelligence (HUMINT).

Russia has been no slouch when it comes to enlisting allies and mercenaries. The Wagner Group, a privately owned mercenary army, has been on the front lines near Soledar and Bakhmut.

Russia is getting drones from Turkey and Iran. Fighters are arriving from Syria. China is providing financial support and offering technology that helps Russia to build its weapons and continue its missile attacks.

Up the Escalation Ladder
Physical warfighting has occurred in Poland (a misguided Ukrainian missile), Belarus (also a misguided Ukrainian missile), Russia (drone attacks on airbases inside Russia with nuclear weapons nearby) and Germany (the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines). There have also been naval battles on the Black Sea.

Of course, a long list of countries is providing support for Ukraine by participating in U.S.- and EU-led financial and economic sanctions.

The countries now directly involved in the war in Ukraine with weapons, money, intelligence, mercenaries or financial sanctions include the U.S., the U.K., Germany, France, Poland, Lithuania, Canada, Australia, Ukraine, Russia, China, Syria, Iran, Turkey, Japan, Romania, Belarus and Moldova. These countries span four continents. The economic ramifications are global. If this is not a world war, it’s not clear what is.

The Third World War is here. It may be at the 1937 stage rather than the 1941 stage. Let’s hope that status prevails. It likely will not.

Importantly for investors, this war is not close to a conclusion. It is far more likely to expand in terms of affected nations, financial sanctions and kinetic warfare.

The danger of escalation to a nuclear exchange is real and growing. Will anyone stop it before it’s too late?

https://dailyreckoning.com/world-war-iii-has-it-begun/

https://slaynews.com/news/elon-musk-checkmates-media-reveals-who-was-behind-fake-russia-story-that-drove-usa-apart/

Elon Musk Checkmates Media, Exposes Those Behind Fake ‘Russian Disinformation’ Narrative
David HawkinsJanuary 27, 2023 - 6:50 pm

Elon Musk has just dropped the latest installment of the “Twitter Files” and exposed a group of shadowy figures behind the fake “Russian disinformation” narrative.

Musk tasked journalist Matt Taibbi to detail the latest release of internal Twitter files.

Taibbi reveals how the group of individuals peddled the “Russian disinfo” narrative and used it massively to censor conservatives online.

A group of very familiar names created “Hamilton 68.”

Taibbi explains that “Hamilton 68” is a computerized “dashboard designed to be used by reporters and academics to measure ‘Russian disinformation.’”

He reveals that the system claimed to target and block “Russian bots” but, instead, it just censored legitimate conservative accounts.

According to Taibbi, even former Twitter executive Yoel Roth believed the system was fraudulent.

“I think we need to just call this out on the bullsh*t it is,” Roth reportedly told his colleagues.

“Falsely accuses a bunch of legitimate right-leaning accounts of being Russian bots.

“Virtually any conclusion drawn from it will take conversations in conservative circles on Twitter and accuse them of being Russian.”

According to Taibbi, corporate media outlets and so-called “fact-checkers” have been using Hamilton 68 as an authoritative source to “debunk” information.

Taibbi writes:

“Virtually every major news organization in America is implicated, including NBC, CBS, ABC, PBS, CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times, and the Washington Post.

“Mother Jones alone did at least 14 stories pegged to the group’s ‘research.’

“Even fact-checking sites like Politifact and Snopes cited Hamilton 68 as a source.

“Hamilton 68 was and is a computerized ‘dashboard’ designed to be used by reporters and academics to measure ‘Russian disinformation.’

“It was the brainchild of former FBI agent (and current MSNBC ‘disinformation expert’) Clint Watts, and backed by the German Marshall Fund and the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a bipartisan think-tank.

“The latter’s advisory panel includes former acting CIA chief Michael Morell, former Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, former Hillary for America chair John Podesta, and onetime Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol.

“The Twitter Files expose Hamilton 68 as a sham,” Taibbi asserts.

Meanwhile, China is waiting patiently to get Taiwain from the weakened western powers.

richwicks says

HeadSet says

Patrick says

By the time these tanks get anywhere in the vicinity of Ukraine, this war is likely to be over.

Let's see if this prediction comes true.

The point for the United States is to prolong the war for as long as possible to benefit the MIC.

The point for Russia is to prolong the war for as long as possible to weaken NATO and the United States.

I would be surprised if this war is over in less than 5 years.

https://www.history.com/news/8-reasons-why-rome-fell

As more and more funds were funneled into the military upkeep of the empire, technological advancement slowed and Rome’s civil infrastructure fell into disrepair. ...

The Praetorian Guard—the emperor’s personal bodyguards—assassinated and installed new sovereigns at will, and once even auctioned the spot off to the highest bidder. The political rot also extended to the Roman Senate, which failed to temper the excesses of the emperors due to its own widespread corruption and incompetence. As the situation worsened, civic pride waned and many Roman citizens lost trust in their leadership.

tomtomtom says

Meanwhile, China is waiting patiently to get Taiwain from the weakened western powers.

China doesn't have to attack Taiwan.

US influence is waning, and the economic system they have lorded over for the last century is diminishing through extreme corruption and incompetence along with a complete lack of regulatory control.

It is likely that Taiwan will ally itself with China all on its own. They are moving in that direction right now. The KMT is the Chinese Communist Party, and they made HUGE gains against the DPP which is the Democratic Progressive Party. They are about 50/50 now in power. That was a HUGE swing. The direction is moving toward reunification of some sort, and without any war. China just needs to wait.

China certainly has problems, but the West - they don't make anything. You can't even buy underwear made in the United States. We are totally fucked because of the assholes outsourcing all our manufacturing. The US has delayed collapse by printing endless amounts of money, and lying about just how much they've created while running roughshod over the entire planet with endless stupid war. We're a nation built entirely on economic fraud. When this comes to an end, it's Depression 2.0.

The people that have been in charge of our foreign policy for the last 30 years, the fucking Neocons, our nation's competitors couldn't have had a better set of assholes in power if they placed them there. They've doomed us. 30 years of war, and not ONE of them have advanced US interests. Right now, Africa is making partnerships with Russia because they think Russia, RUSSIA, would be a more reliable trading partner than the US that instead is just sowing chaos. They believe that Russia can actually help them develop. That's what a bunch of FUCKUPS we have in charge, if they aren't actually Manchurian Candidates. Who knows?

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/01/29/exclusive-lt-col-daniel-davis-warns-nuclear-war-us-no-plan-ukraine-this-not-video-game/

Lt. Col. Daniel Davis Warns of Nuclear War: U.S. Has ‘No Plan’ in Ukraine, This Is Not a ‘Video Game’ ...

“We have no plan”

Davis described the “unambiguous” conclusion of all the aforementioned as the fact that the U.S. has “no plan.”

“We have no strategy,” he said. “Nobody is asking what comes next.”

Having “just talked ad nauseam on the failings of the United States in Operation Iraqi Freedom — when we went in in 2003, nobody talked about what comes next and then — after we had this easy military victory — we didn’t know what to do next and we’ve been paying for it ever since.”

“All the stuff that happened after is because we didn’t have a plan,” he added.

According to Davis, “we’re now doing the same thing — we have no plan.”

Patrick says

Nice picture, but most of that money is old iron like M113, HMMV, HIMARS, HAWK, AGM-88 etc. How exactly do you kick back 10% of a surplus M113? Or a HAWK missile slated for utilization? In reality most of that stuff is cost: to store, utilize, etc. We're actually saving money by getting rid of it.

Eric Holder says

Patrick says

Nice picture, but most of that money is old iron like M113, HMMV, HIMARS, HAWK, AGM-88 etc.

How do you know?

https://palexander.substack.com/p/oh-sht-tulsi-said-what-about-ukraine

Oh Sh*t, Tulsi said what about Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelenskyy? What? Zelenskyy did what? And United States was ok with that? You sure you don't mean Putin?
Zelenskyy shut dOwn the 3 TV stations that were criticizing him, imprisoned his political opponents, and then arrested the opposition party leader? IS THIS TRUE? I am sure US said no, stop! Right?

https://www.rt.com/russia/570954-logic-behind-ukrainian-terrorism/

The logic behind the terror: Why does Ukraine keep attacking civilian areas in Donetsk?