patrick.net

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Russia and Belarus are edging close to default given the massive sanctions imposed against their economies by the United States and its allies over the war in Ukraine, the World Bank’s chief economist, Carmen Reinhart, told Reuters.
The specter of Russia defaulting on $40 billion of external bonds - its first major such default since the years following the 1917 Bolshevik revolution - has loomed large over markets since a raft of sanctions and countermeasures by Moscow have largely cut the country out of global financial markets.
“Both Russia and Belarus are in square default territory,” Reinhart said in an interview. “They’re not rated by the agencies as a selective default yet, but mighty close.”
Fitch on Tuesday downgraded Russia’s sovereign rating by six notches further into junk territory to “C” from “B,” saying a default is imminent as sanctions and trade restrictions have undermined its willingness to service debt.
Reinhart said financial sector repercussions had been limited thus far, but risks could emerge if European financial institutions were more exposed to Russian debt than assumed.
Around half of Russia’s sovereign hard-currency bonds are held by foreign investors and Moscow must make $107 million in coupon payments on two bonds on March 16. Russian corporates have just under $100 billion in international bonds outstanding.
Foreign banks have exposure of just over $121 billion to Russia with much of that concentrated in European lenders, according to data from the Bank of International Settlements

RWSGFY says

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Russia and Belarus are edging close to default given the massive sanctions imposed against their economies by the United States and its allies over the war in Ukraine, the World Bank’s chief economist, Carmen Reinhart, told Reuters.

Too bad China and India DGAF and aren't participating, Germany and the EU are buying Russian Oil and Gas, and SWIFT payments are still functional for Sberbank.

RWSGFY says

Around half of Russia’s sovereign hard-currency bonds are held by foreign investors and Moscow must make $107 million in coupon payments on two bonds on March 16. Russian corporates have just under $100 billion in international bonds outstanding.

China announced they will take Russian debt payments in RMB. Along with goods orders.

Russian banks are joining China's UnionPay System and are already replacing debit/credit cards with that logo.

Thanks to Outsourcing, Walmart, and Amazon.

March 9 (Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates (UAE) favors an oil production increase and will be encouraging OPEC to consider higher output, the UAE's ambassador to Washington said on Wednesday.

"We favor production increases and will be encouraging OPEC to consider higher production levels," Ambassador Yousuf Al Otaiba said in a statement tweeted by the UAE Embassy in Washington.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said on Wednesday that the UAE was giving support for increased oil production.

AmericanKulak says

RWSGFY says

Around half of Russia’s sovereign hard-currency bonds are held by foreign investors and Moscow must make $107 million in coupon payments on two bonds on March 16. Russian corporates have just under $100 billion in international bonds outstanding.

China announced they will take Russian debt payments in RMB. Along with goods orders.

Russian banks are joining China's UnionPay System and are already replacing debit/credit cards with that logo.

Thanks to Outsourcing, Walmart, and Amazon.

Good. Let's hope the whole covfefe usher the long-overdue decoupling from that Commie shithole.

AmericanKulak says

RWSGFY says

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Russia and Belarus are edging close to default given the massive sanctions imposed against their economies by the United States and its allies over the war in Ukraine, the World Bank’s chief economist, Carmen Reinhart, told Reuters.

Too bad China and India DGAF and aren't participating, Germany and the EU are buying Russian Oil and Gas, and SWIFT payments are still functional for Sberbank.

Yes, too bad. But the night is young.

Eric Holder says

Yes, too bad. But the night is young.

Nah, it's over, nobody's following Biden.

And Xiden will never try to strongarm China, all his family corruption is documented by China who participated in it. And on many Dem and Rep Senators too, including and especially McConnell and Pelosi.

This is pathetic:

original link

Xiden and the Obama Crew are actually considering removing Sanctions on a real Socialist Dictatorship.

Bank run in Moscow:




And in Saint-Petersburg:
https://twitter.com/NiemieckaPolity/status/1501985164884422658?source=patrick.net

Eric Holder says

Bank run in Moscow:

Nice! bye bye Russian economy!

Russia says China refuses to supply aircraft parts after sanctions


March 10 (Reuters) - China has refused to supply Russian airlines with aircraft parts, an official at Russia's aviation authority was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying on Thursday, after Boeing (BA.N) and Airbus (AIR.PA) halted supply of components.

Russia's aviation sector is being squeezed by Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, with Russia's foreign ministry warning this week that the safety of Russian passenger flights was under threat

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-says-china-refuses-supply-aircraft-parts-after-sanctions-2022-03-10/?source=patrick.net

President Biden is expected to announce Friday that the U.S., European Union and G7 countries are moving to revoke Russia's "most favored nation" trade status over its invasion of Ukraine.

Bipartisan lawmakers have been calling on him to revoke the status, known as "permanent normal trade relations," with Russia. The favored status means that nations cannot discriminate in their treatment of their trading partners. The removal of the status means the U.S. and allies will be able to impose tariffs on Russian imports.
Within the past few days, companies such as Starbucks, McDonald's, Hilton Worldwide Hotels, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo. have announced changes to their operations in Russia, decisions the White House says have been made by the companies, independent of the U.S. government.

I hope that the sanctions don't impact Russia too much. The world needs a counterbalance.

gabbar says

I hope that the sanctions don't impact Russia too much. The world needs a counterbalance.

@gabbar
How would you feel about this plan: The US could utilize their best special forces to deploy a covert team into Moscow. Similar to what we did with other terrorist in previous years.
That special force team would take out Putin, some of the generals and maybe some oligarchs.

We would then plant US trained leaders in Moscow so that Moscow becomes controllable for the US. The way i think about this is Russia could become a special exporter of goods to the US at special conditions (reduced pricing) as a pay-back for the US efforts.

gabbar says

The world needs a counterbalance.

I agree. The world needs to be multi-polar, and it currently is not. It's GloboCap all the way down.

The reason for the furious and unremitting corporate propaganda against Russia is that they are asserting independence from GloboCap, which is based in NY and London. Not that Russia is a bastion of human rights, but they are at least true resistance to GloboCap.

The Borg demands that all be assimilated and obedient to capital. Every pocket of resistance to the McDonaldization of the world is under attack. "Every human must be repeatedly injected with an insidious toxin for the profits of Pfizer and Blackrock, and all who resist must be demonized and ostracized."

Two Weeks Into War, Russia’s Economy Has Rarely Fared Worse Than Now
Two weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war has inflicted a domestic toll that’s already comparable to the worst downturns of President Vladimir Putin’s more than two decades in power.
Tripped up by international sanctions, an economy that was on track to expand for a second year swung into reverse in a matter of days. In one of the first assessments of the damage already done, Bloomberg Economics’ nowcast suggests output has fallen about 2% -- a drop that rivals the full-year contraction during the pandemic in 2020. 
The decline means more than $30 billion has been erased from Russia’s annual gross domestic product, based on last year’s prices. Bloomberg Economics’ initial forecast is for Russia’s full-year GDP to slump about 9% in 2022. 
Read more: How Big Is War GDP Hit So Far? Nowcast Says 2%
Putin sought to reassure Russians on Friday, insisting that the Soviet Union grew and “achieved colossal successes” while under sanctions. 
But the depth of hardship at home may well test the nation’s resolve should the war in Ukraine turn into a prolonged conflict and result in additional sanctions. Russia is already headed for one of its biggest inflation spikes this century and the risk of shortages is prompting the government to impose restrictions on exports.
Bloomberg Economics’ gauge of activity suggests the collapse in the early days of the war resembles downturns during the Covid-19 shock and the global financial crisis. GDP shrank almost 8% in 2009.
Nowcasting the Impact of War, Sanctions on Russia’s Economy
The outlook for the year ahead is fluid and estimates vary widely among economists, ranging from the Institute of International Finance’s call for a “very deep recession” of 15% to a contraction of 7% seen by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
A March survey of analysts by the Bank of Russia found the economy is expected to shrink 8% this year, compared with February’s forecast for a gain of 2.4%.
Worst to Come
The nowcast points to a large economic impact, based on the little information that’s available. But a much more severe downturn likely lies ahead, given the scope of the dislocation in Russia’s economy.
The measure may be understating the extent of the decline because stock prices are one of its four main components and the extended closure of local equity markets limits the amount of data. Bloomberg Economics factored in the performance of Russian securities before MSCI Inc. removed them from its indexes.
Other inputs used to measure activity are the ruble-dollar exchange rate, corporate bond yields and oil prices. 
Despite capital controls and the biggest interest-rate increase in almost two decades, the ruble has lost about 37% of its value in this year’s worst performance worldwide.
Russia is moving into a “deep recession,” with the ruble’s plunge driving up inflation and severely denting the purchasing power of the Russian population, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters Thursday. 

-- Bloomberg

GDP is a crap measure of the economy.

Example: Government spending adds to GDP.

Right now Russia has slightly less than 1 million people in the military. In WWII the Russian army totaled about 11 million. I would like this current conflict confined to the Ukraine. If Russia decides to boost its GDP by going to full wartime production, it would alleviate the hit to GDP, but would scare the ever living shit out of the West.

Patrick says

I agree. The world needs to be multi-polar, and it currently is not. It's GloboCap all the way down.

I dunno - the world was much more violent when it was multi-polar. Violence is ticking up now (Ukraine) as America is perceived as being weak with Slow Joe Biden at the helm.

Everyone posting on this forum has enjoyed unprecedented peace and prosperity in our lives thanks to Pax-Americana. We are truly one of the luckiest generations in recorded history in terms of not having to suffer from militarized violence like all of our ancestors.

socal2 says

Everyone posting on this forum has enjoyed unprecedented peace and prosperity in our lives thanks to Pax-Americana. We are truly one of the luckiest generations in recorded history in terms of not having to suffer from militarized violence like all of our ancestors.

And Debt, Outsourcing including the utter hollowing out of huge swaths of US Cities - esp. smaller cities like Scranton, Cinncinati, Binghampton, etc., and CRT/BLM bullshit. In 1990 it was unthinkable to have women in combat arms, and if you said Crossdressing perverts would be openly wearing makeup and sporting padded bras in the US Army in 30 years, would have laughed you out the room. Much less Drag Queens in Public Libraries with Kindergarten Kids.

$30T in debt, 120% of GDP, and that's just Federal - not including State or Private debt. Without a damn thing to show for it.

AmericanKulak says

And Debt, Outsourcing including the utter hollowing out of huge swaths of US Cities - esp. smaller cities like Scranton, Cinncinati, Binghampton, etc., and CRT/BLM bullshit. In 1990 it was unthinkable to have women in combat arms, and if you said Crossdressing perverts would be openly wearing makeup and sporting padded bras in the US Army in 30 years, would have laughed you out the room. Much less Drag Queens in Public Libraries with Kindergarten Kids.

$30T in debt, 120% of GDP, and that's just Federal - not including State or Private debt. Without a damn thing to show for it.

How does cheering on Russia gobbling up their former Eastern European slave colonies and hoping or a Multi-polar world help this?

One can against the woke Corporate bullshit you cite above and also be against Russia invading their neighbors at the same time.

Russia has no intentions of occupying the Ukraine.

It's total military is less than 1 million people. To occupy a country the size/population of Ukraine would take an occupation army of about 2 million people. Putin just ain't conscripting anyone, especially that number.

No this is just to make the Ukraine see his way on not being able to join NATO, making sure there are no more attacks from Ukrainians on the Donblass section, and formal recognition of Crimea belonging to Russia (with water rights).

If you think Putin is going to pay Russian money to rebuild what he is destroying in Ukraine, you are mistaken.

He has no intention of keeping it.

Misc says

If you think Putin is going to pay Russian money to rebuild what he is destroying in Ukraine, you are mistaken.

He has no intention of keeping it

And he has made Russia a total pariah state and much poorer as a result.

Putin also showed the world the Russian military sucks and can't even manage logistics and supplies invading their next door neighbors.

So even if Putin pounds Ukrainian cities into submission with cowardly artillery and rocket strikes from afar - what has Russia really gained to offset the economic, social and political costs they will suffer over the years to come?

He gains nothing except to have Europe united against him, which is why I didn't think he was going to invade in the first place.

The Russian military is getting better as time goes by. They are kinda new at this.

Putin saw what the CIA backed insurgents/terrorists did to his proxy's (Syria) cities. Maybe he is of the mind "do to me, I'll do the same to your proxies".

Still a bad move on his part, in my opinion.

Misc says

The Russian military is getting better as time goes by. They are kinda new at this.

I thought the Russians got their recent experience (and overconfidence) fighting in Syria, Georgia, Crimea and Donbass?

Misc says

Putin just ain't conscripting anyone,

Yeah, I'd like to see how well that would go over.

Patrick says

Hilarious. I was thinking same thing… I wish they were gone here too. Especially fucking Starbucks. Impossible to find a mom and pop coffee shop because chains ran them all out of business here.

Booger says

Misc says

Putin just ain't conscripting anyone,

Yeah, I'd like to see how well that would go over.

I got this one from you I think

LONDON (Reuters) - The world’s top association of ship certifiers has withdrawn membership from the Russia Maritime Register of Shipping (RS) due to the impact of sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine, in another blow to the country’s vital shipping sector.
Classification societies provide services such as checking that ships are seaworthy, and this certification cover is essential for securing insurance and entry into ports.
In recent days, Britain’s LR and Denmark’s DNV, have both announced they were stopping or winding down their business ties with Russia.
The International Association of Classification Societies (IACS), which had 12 members previously including LR and DNV and forms the top tier of ship certifiers globally, said late on Friday it was withdrawing RS’ membership with immediate effect, which it said was “no longer tenable”, citing UK sanctions on Russia where IACS is domiciled.

11.03.2022 - 07:13 UTC
An An-124-100 freighter belonging to Russian cargo specialist Volga-Dnepr Airlines (VI, Ulyanovsk Vostochny), carrying Covid-19 testing kits previously ordered from China by the Canadian government, has been seized at Toronto Pearson Airport amid international sanctions against Russia imposed after its invasion of Ukraine.

RA-82078 (msn 9773054559153) was detained on February 28 after the European Union and Canada - but before the United States - initiated airspace flight bans paralysing the movement of aircraft operated by Russian airlines carrying passengers or cargo.

The Antonov Design Bureau freighter, which had landed at Toronto the previous day via a refuelling stop at Anchorage Ted Stevens, is now stored there, the ch-aviation fleets advanced module shows, and it will remain there for the foreseeable future, according to Omar Alghabra, Canada’s minister of transport.

Volga-Dnepr Airlines, whose subsidiaries include AirBridgeCargo, Atran, and London Stansted-based CargoLogicAir, operates eleven An-124s, three of which are currently active, among its all-owned fleet of sixteen aircraft.

...

Distinctive for its nose-loading cargo bay, the An-124 “Ruslan” entered service in 1986 and fewer than 60 were ever made. Less than half are still in use. Antonov Design Bureau is a state-owned Ukrainian manufacturer. The Ruslan is the second-heaviest freighter in the world after the majestic An-225 “Mriya”. The world’s only An-225 was destroyed in a Russian airstrike on Gostomel airport in the first days of the invasion.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/113445-an-124-of-russias-volga-dnepr-seized-at-toronto-canada?source=patrick.net

All these sanctions will ultimately drive the creation of alternative systems, which is already happening as Russia starts to trade with China in their own currency, and prepares to sell oil to India.

The dollar itself is being undermined by sanctions, because the dollar gets its value from the need to trade oil in dollars. When the dollar is no longer necessary to buy oil, we will have to pay many more dollars to import anything, and US inflation will continue to rise.

People used to fear the US military, but now that the military has the cancer of wokeness, why would US soldiers fight at all? Worse, the government betrayed all US soldiers by demanding that they be injected with an unapproved experimental "vaccine" which was not even tested on animals.

There is no limit to Biden's ability to fuck things up.

The long-term US mistake was allowing corrupt CEOs to outsource US manufacturing to China for short term profits to themselves, at the cost of America's long-term prosperity. We can recover, but it will take decades.

Patrick says

All these sanctions will ultimately drive the creation of alternative systems, which is already happening as Russia starts to trade with China in their own currency, and prepares to sell oil to India.

Good. We need to decouple from these fucks. End offshoring, end outsourcing.

Eric Holder says

End offshoring, end outsourcing.

I agree with that, but it's going to be a bumpy ride downward for quite a while.

Patrick says

Eric Holder says

End offshoring, end outsourcing.

I agree with that, but it's going to be a bumpy ride downward for quite a while.

I don't mind a bumpy ride to a worthy destination. Beats a smooth slide to hell all day every day.

China tells Biden to Fuck Off on sanctions. After all, they have all the shit on Biden, too, if he decides to grow balls. They also know that 80% of the supply Chain, including Japanese and Taiwanese and South Korean brands, lead back to Shenzhen. It'll be YEARS before it can be replaced, and the manufacturing experts are dead or retired in the USA.
https://www.newsweek.com/america-allies-tell-china-stop-supporting-russia-war-ukraine-sanctions-1688050?source=patrick.net

Miss Lindsay suddenly grows a pair on China, now that the Petrodollar and Western Globalist Banksters are at risk:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/lindsey-graham-offers-to-help-joe-biden-punish-china-if-beijing-bails-out-putin/ar-AAV5dfF?source=patrick.net

A Russian-owned superyacht can't leave a dock in Norway — not because of sanctions, but because no one in the port will sell it fuel. The Ragnar is owned by Russian oligarch Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, a former KGB agent who has long been linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"We find the discrimination against us, extremely unjust," the yacht's captain, Robert Lankester, wrote in a message decrying the ship's predicament. He noted that Strzhalkovsky is not currently on a European or U.K. sanctions list. And, he said, the yacht's crew is not Russian.
Lankester's public notice was highlighted by Norwegian public broadcaster NRK, which reports that the Malta-registered ship is sitting at a quay in Narvik, a port city in northern Norway.
Strzhalkovsky is the former head of mining giant Norilsk Nickel. The 68-meter (223 feet) Ragnar was custom-built on the hull of a former service ship capable of pushing its way through ice. Part of its bespoke interior evokes a cozy British pub, according to a profile in Boat International. And while its amenities include "a BigBo amphibious ATV, heli-skiing equipment, four See-Doos, four ski scooters, six Seabobs, a multipurpose island and a giant slide," it currently can't find anyone who will fill its fuel tanks.
Let them row home, a local supplier told NRK.

AmericanKulak says

China tells Biden to Fuck Off on sanctions. After all, they have all the shit on Biden, too, if he decides to grow balls.

Considering how senile the kiddie fucker was a year and 1/2 ago - I doubt he's be able to find his balls if he had one end of string tied around them, and the other end tied to his finger.

Biden isn't part of this equation. I think it's quite obvious that being a willing meat puppet of the intelligence agencies and his perk is to be above the law, as long as he sticks to the script and I do think Biden is having some difficulty sticking to the script at this point.

I would feel badly for Biden, if his history in government wasn't one of being a completely corrupt criminal piece of shit. I kind of enjoy the old twat trying to bluff his way through a public speech. He's definitely the worst president in my lifetime, and I remember Nixon. I'd say beyond him - George W. Bush or Barack Obama was the worst presidents in my lifetime - which was worse? Flip a coin, both were totally garbage.

From top down: Trump/Reagan, Nixon, Carter, Ford, George W. Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush/Obama, Biden. That's in terms of the presidents that went from helping this nation (I think Nixon, Reagan, Trump and even Carter did) to those that harmed it. We haven't had a anything but dog shit for presidents starting in 1988 with the exception of Trump. But I was a child up until 1988, maybe I'm looking through rose colored glasses of my childish stupidity.

AmericanKulak says

They also know that 80% of the supply Chain, including Japanese and Taiwanese and South Korean brands, lead back to Shenzhen. It'll be YEARS before it can be replaced, and the manufacturing experts are dead or retired in the USA.

One thing that bothers me is that the US elite who outsourced our manufacturing to China got rich off of the impoverishment of the US and will probably never be punished for it.

Medieval China had the death penalty for exporting trade secrets like silk production.

(Reuters) -Russia’s central bank kept its key interest rate at 20% on Friday following an emergency rate hike in late February and warned of an imminent spike in inflation and a looming economic contraction.

AmericanKulak says

Unable to buy $30/lb luxury Italian Cheese, $30/bottle midrange French Wines, expensive German Audio Equipment... what will the Russians do with themselves?

Get it from a chinese container ship

Eric Holder says

Good. Let's hope the whole covfefe usher the long-overdue decoupling from that Commie shithole.

What the hell does S.F. have to do with all this?