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@WillyWanker I think a lot depends on interest rates.

Patrick says

@WillyWanker I think a lot depends on interest rates.

It will be interesting to see if they raise rates. But, many other forces are at play. I'm now watching on the sidelines, as I am now living between homes in Spain and Andorra.

I think it depends a lot in interest rates AND the eviction / foreclosure moratoriums. Once all the deadbeats get thrown out of their apartments, the people who are thinking about selling their house while they still have equity in it are going to sell.

zzyzzx says

I think it depends a lot in interest rates AND the eviction / foreclosure moratoriums.

Also lack of development over the last decade, although I understand new home builders are going crazy lately.

Zillow says double digit growth in 2022

Buy now or be priced out forever

… and as long as interest rates are at 3-4%, no we aren’t heading to any declining home prices and certainly no crash.

Stock market took a turn recently, 40yr inflation high, coming out of a global pandemic… how much do you think the Fed will raise those rates… probably not much. They know damn well they will need to be careful with this.

Secondarily, stonks. Wealth effect, yadda, yadda.

I think inflation is countering crash for the time being.

WillyWanker says

I have friends who have just put their homes on the market. And others, who should know better, who are awaiting real estate lotto to be 'able to purchase' homes in communities in Arizona and Florida. I don't think I've heard people speak about waiting in line to buy up a tract house in a gated community since 2006. What gives?

Obviously location is a huge factor. Here in IL people have been leaving the state. Builders here for the most part aren't building subdivisions. Even with the migration out there are more people able to purchase as Millennials start families. If there's going to be a crash somewhere it's going to be because of demographics and inventory. And the Millennials that don't/can't buy will continue to live at Mom and Dad's.

The last crash was because of shit lending standards. I got a $315k loan at 22 for a 2 flat in Chicago. That's not happening now as far as I can tell. I could handle that now easily financially, but if I had the same income as back then no way in hell would I get that loan.

There are a few areas I'd worry about though with stagnating prices or some declines. Denver, CO is one. Sorry PorkChop, but Nashville, TN is of concern. Idaho (not sure of specific towns/cities). Bozeman, MT area is retarded right now. The "rural" town/cities with a lot of blue state transplants have prices that are not sustainable. They have vast amounts of land around them and at some point the people will stop coming and they'll over build.

As Patrick points out, you're buying a payment basically. Fed will throttle that with interest rates, but it's more controlled and I don't think would result in a crash. I'm not a bull on housing though. Markets are hitting a ceiling in areas. Just doesn't mean there will be a crash like last time.

Inflation of goods will for sure cause a slow down as well unless incomes tick up. 2007/08 was a once in a lifetime event. Great Depression style. I could be wrong, but I don't see a 20% plus crash coming anywhere outside of hipster areas where they over built and there's massive amounts of land.

WillyWanker says

I remember this forum as it was one of my favorites in the aughts because I, along with most people who followed Patrick Killelea, believed the frothy real estate market was ready to burst.

I miss the good ol' days when all we had to complain about was over priced crap shacks.

FJB says

WillyWanker says

I remember this forum as it was one of my favorites in the aughts because I, along with most people who followed Patrick Killelea, believed the frothy real estate market was ready to burst.

I miss the good ol' days when all we had to complain about was over priced crap shacks.

I also enjoyed reading all the perma-bear content on here then and now. The regret runs deep I’m sure.