patrick.net

MolotovCocktail says

Boomers were 1946 - 1964.

GenX 1965 - 1980

Millennials 1981 - 1996.

Gen X here. boomers they are all retired with money in annuities if they have any. most whom I know , live off social security, barely scraping by. they are selling in cities moving to lower cost living areas to die in peace.

WookieMan says

go off what I know, not what I "think" I know

No. You go off on total bullshit.

WookieMan says

don't run my mouth here talking about stuff I haven't experience or know first hand.

What? I don't know what grandparents are?

WookieMan says

never said delivery quantity.

You responded as such. Now that you got caught, you are trying to deny it.

You do this all the time.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

never said delivery quantity.

You responded as such. Now that you got caught, you are trying to deny it.

You do this all the time.

Brothers in Christ, please learn to put up with each other and let things go, none of it is important. It is what Christ called us to and apostle Paul reminded us about, let it go and love one another in Christ.

MolotovCocktail says

You do this all the time.

You are fighting the good fight against either a master level troll or a complete moron.

Use the ignore function - it's made Patnet a much better place for me.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
go off what I know, not what I "think" I know

No. You go off on total bullshit.

Good rebuttal. Lol. I know more than anyone on this site about real estate. Reading a bunch of crap here or media has demolished your brain and thought process. Keep being the the crazy person in the room. You're outmatched.

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
go off what I know, not what I "think" I know

No. You go off on total bullshit.

Good rebuttal. Lol. I know more than anyone on this site about real estate. Reading a bunch of crap here or media has demolished your brain and thought process. Keep being the the crazy person in the room. You're outmatched.

oh i don’t know about that. there were 2 very smart fellas here that did well in RE in california. Eman and pkennedy. those guys knew a lot. but i’m not doubting you. just saying there are very smart guys here. i’m not that RE savvy myself. i’m just an ordinary landlord, not an investor.

Fortwaye says

oh i don’t know about that. there were 2 very smart fellas here that did well in RE in california. Eman and pkennedy. those guys knew a lot. but i’m not doubting you. just saying there are very smart guys here. i’m not that RE savvy myself. i’m just an ordinary landlord, not an investor.

They were ordinary landlords as well. I studied for 6 years and did it for 15 actively. Rentals are not the market everyone here wants to know about. They want to know if they should buy or if their home value is going to drop. I know that. I know 1,000 brokers, lenders, attorneys, inspectors. No one here does.

I also know how to run a brokerage and business. I'm semi retired at 41 and just have fun. You don't get there without knowing what you're doing. So I take offense, not at you, but when others talk out their ass.

WookieMan says

I know more than anyone on this site about real estate

stfu says

You are fighting the good fight against either a master level troll or a complete moron.

^^^ He only trolls when he gets caught being a moron. Therefore, he's not being a complete moron, I'll give him that.

This last one is also the action figure for a recruiter in the tech industry.

I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.

WookieMan says

Fortwaye says

oh i don’t know about that. there were 2 very smart fellas here that did well in RE in california. Eman and pkennedy. those guys knew a lot. but i’m not doubting you. just saying there are very smart guys here. i’m not that RE savvy myself. i’m just an ordinary landlord, not an investor.

They were ordinary landlords as well. I studied for 6 years and did it for 15 actively. Rentals are not the market everyone here wants to know about. They want to know if they should buy or if their home value is going to drop. I know that. I know 1,000 brokers, lenders, attorneys, inspectors. No one here does.

I also know how to run a brokerage and business. I'm semi retired at 41 and just have fun. You don't get there without knowing what you're doing. So I take offense, not at you, but when others talk out their ass.

that’s awesome. i never learned anything about that industry. would like to, but never know where to start. just know how to basic landlord.

WookieMan says

I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.

You being called out for being full if shit isn't an attack. It's a public service.

ForcedTQ says

Willing to bet most home owners were at one time renters who save.

Haha, didn't you know, everyone goes straight from high school and college to homeowner.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.

You being called out for being full if shit isn't an attack. It's a public service.

I'm not petty to troll most the users here. Name a point you made where it wasn't a Lebron James pounding his feet for not getting a foul called? Those are you comments and posts. No content or thought. It's turned into all images now. Can't even write a coherent comment.

Mirrors work. Look at your comments and posts. Sexy picture thread? That's something a gay would do to cover up their gayness. Projecting projecting straightness when it's a lie.

WookieMan says

I'm not petty to troll most the users here.

Yes, you are. Or are you now admitting that you post bullshit because you don't know what you are talking about?

Speaking of your bullshit:

WookieMan says

Name a point you made where it wasn't a Lebron James pounding his feet for not getting a foul called?

I don't think I have ever posted about LeBron at all. But maybe I should start purely in reference to you.

WookieMan says

Can't even write a coherent comment.

Again: full of shit, LeBron.

MolotovCocktail says

Doesn't seem correct.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/money/will-a-recession-lower-home-prices-impact-on-housing-market-explained/vi-AA1CBGHS?t=60

GNL says

Doesn't seem correct.

True or false: Is it now 7.5%?

MolotovCocktail says

GNL says

Doesn't seem correct.

True or false: Is it now 7.5%?

What difference does it make?? The people that couldn't buy at 4% interest aren't going to magically come out of the woodwork and buy homes at 7.5% to 15%. Builders won't build if there's no demand and rates are higher. Inventory will stay low in most places as no one is moving.

Those that can buy or build will. There's an extra 5-10% of the potential market that cannot buy for the foreseeable future without income increases or employment advances. Doesn't mean a crash like some want. The loans are good and we're not overbuilding for the few that afford to buy. Boomers have retired and moved or are working the rest of their lives and not moving. That whole idea is water under the bridge at this point and won't move the market.

Want lower prices, build. You have to know the economics of building though. Prices for the materials aren't worth breaking ground more so than interest rates. These aren't the bull shit mortgage times where build it and they'll come. Materials need to come down to build. That's not looking promising.

Expect a decade like 1985-1995 as Millennials get more money and established. Basically sideways for home ownership. I think Gen Z will be slow to ownership because of prices, not interest rates. If ownership goes up builders have more confidence and building goes up which suppresses prices but they can still make money with the smaller houses being built now.

WookieMan says

What difference does it make?? The people that couldn't buy at 4% interest aren't going to magically come out of the woodwork and buy homes at 7.5% to 15%. Builders won't build if there's no demand and rates are higher. Inventory will stay low in most places as no one is moving.

You say, "What difference does A make?" and then proceed in the next sentence to describe just what the difference is. A good detailed description, yes. But one we are all already familiar with.

So what's your point and why are you making it?

MolotovCocktail says

So what's your point and why are you making it?

Because no one is selling and no one is buying. It's not because of interest rates. It's income. We're in a stalemate with most real estate outside of coastal areas. Those areas could see a drop, but nothing significant.

Interest rates are not the problem is the main point. If you can buy or build, you do it. I'm at $100k on just concrete on the build. I'm in the game and have been for almost 20 years. Building, buying, selling, land lording, accounting, basically running a business. Give me your experience that is not some whores picture. I feel sorry for your parents if they're still around.

WookieMan says

"Because no one is selling and no one is buying."

That goes against historical trends where higher interest rates meant lower housing prices.

Question: How come today's sellers are not lowering housing prices? Who are these
people?

Answer: Today's sellers are mostly Globalists with an endless supply of money and they
are in effect maintaining the housing bubble...

My take is that the endless supply of money is coming to an end and the price of housing
is going to collapse. Frankly, a person making $50,000 a year cannot afford a
$500,000 house.

MolotovCocktail says

GNL says

Doesn't seem correct.

True or false: Is it now 7.5%?

It moved that much in a little over a week? I don't follow rates but, that seems like a lot in such a short time, no?

The_Deplorable says

Frankly, a person making $50,000 a year cannot afford a
$500,000 house.

In my opinion, a dual 100K income shouldn't even be paying that much unless they are putting a significant downpayment.

The_Deplorable says

That goes against historical trends where higher interest rates meant lower housing prices.

Boomer sold when the rates were low. Anyone else is staying put at a low rate. Without inventory prices stay high as builders are going at a snails pace. This is not at all difficult to comprehend.

GNL says

In my opinion, a dual 100K income shouldn't even be paying that much unless they are putting a significant downpayment.

I agree with this. Until there's an income increase this will go sideways for 5-10 years in most markets. We'll see if Trump can do it. I still don't see a crash though. Rates would have to hit 10% plus and incomes and employment drops significantly. Not happening.

GNL says

The_Deplorable says

Frankly, a person making $50,000 a year cannot afford a
$500,000 house.

In my opinion, a dual 100K income shouldn't even be paying that much unless they are putting a significant downpayment.

many dual income 100 can’t. take cost of living, cost of having kids (assume they aren’t childless), they’ll be scraping by. that’s a 4k housing cost with insurance and taxes. maybe a 300k house is within such couple range, nice starter home.

WookieMan says

Because no one is selling and no one is buying. It's not because of interest rates. It's income.

Get that. But 7.5% rates isn't going to make a difference when ppl qualify on the margin? Ot can make all the difference.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
Because no one is selling and no one is buying. It's not because of interest rates. It's income.

Get that. But 7.5% rates isn't going to make a difference when ppl qualify on the margin? Ot can make all the difference.

Do the math on a 2.5% increase or decline on a nice round number $100k. Don't go out to eat once a month with the family if is goes up. You're talking $150/mo going from 5 to 7.5%.

I get houses don't cost $100k but wanted to keep the math simple. If you can't afford that on a $300-400k house, which is technically high across the country price wise, you're not buying. If you're not buying, no one is selling with rates locked in at 4%.

No point in buying and no point in selling. That's where we are and have been.

There was some stupid survey, maybe by NAR, about buyers waiting "Until 30-year rates go down in the next few months back to 5%"

Stupid from every angle.

Fortwaye says

GNL says

The_Deplorable says

Frankly, a person making $50,000 a year cannot afford a
$500,000 house.

In my opinion, a dual 100K income shouldn't even be paying that much unless they are putting a significant downpayment.

many dual income 100 can’t. take cost of living, cost of having kids (assume they aren’t childless), they’ll be scraping by. that’s a 4k housing cost with insurance and taxes. maybe a 300k house is within such couple range, nice starter home.

To truly “afford” a 500k house with a 30yr at 6.48, 20% down, you’d need to be taking home $12,824/month. That’s 25% of take home for PITI, otherwise you’re house poor and will wind up being unable to afford other things in life, not be able to have adequate emergency fund, difficult to fund adequate retirement, etc. Bump it to 30-35% at this high of income, probably be ok, but the 25% number is there to keep people from getting in trouble and making mistakes, a guideline. Yes, a Ramsey number, that should really be applied to a 15yr loan max, so you actually need an even higher income or bigger down to afford the $500k.

ForcedTQ says

To truly “afford” a 500k house with a 30yr at 6.48, 20% down, you’d need to be taking home $12,824/month. That’s 25% of take home for PITI, otherwise you’re house poor and will wind up being unable to afford other things in life, not be able to have adequate emergency fund, difficult to fund adequate retirement, etc. Bump it to 30-35% at this high of income, probably be ok, but the 25% number is there to keep people from getting in trouble and making mistakes, a guideline. Yes, a Ramsey number, that should really be applied to a 15yr loan max, so you actually need an even higher income or bigger down to afford the $500k.

If you don't have kids that's easily achievable. Doing it with 3 kids on a $700k build currently. As I've said in other comments, income. If no one is going to buy your house and you're locked in at 4% and buyers can't afford the price, there will be no inventory. You just stay put as no one can buy it.

The Boomers are done. Their sales already happened or they're staying and handing it down to the kids. If the kids decide to sell that's one thing, but someone will likely end up living there in the family.

The_Deplorable says

Question: How come today's sellers are not lowering housing prices? Who are these
people?

Sellers are infamous for seeing their house as the Taj Mahal, and recent gainz have conditioned them to feel entitled to the appreciation price increases over the past few years.

"They don't have to sell" is misleading. Many people want or HAVE to move back from remote work, have seen the cost of homeownership skyrocket so that with a low rate and a then-cheaper house, the 30% rises in prop tax and insurance have pummeled them on a house many could barely get into in the first place. They look and see how cheap it is to rent now ($1700 and dropping monthly from well over $2300 at peak COVID)

Retail sellers are always the last to know and usually hold the bag. Although in this case it's hard to feel sorry for them.

Home Builders have been biting the bullet early this time around and in many areas from TN to TX to FL, builders are underbidding their own previous phases to the great shock of recent buyers in them. Add to that Builders offer incentives and freebies that homeloaners can't.

Smartass Sam of Seacaucus who brought in Orlando 5 years ago thinks he's slick, but he can't match DR Horton's 5% incentives and the free Whirlpool appliance and tile upgrades.

In Palm Bay it's getting to the point where 90s era homeloaners are almost neck-and-neck with new builds with as much or more sq ft and far more modern conveniences. Why NOT pay 5% more to get a new build with warranty, 18-24 month 5% rate incentives, major upgrades over a 30-year old house at the full rate and the rose & green paint scheme and the 45 degree corner kitchen?

$180k Florida Homes were normal 6 years ago, and there's simply too many people who remember and are refusing to pay $280k for the same or worse old house. Certainly not in the current economic climate.

As always, homeloan sellers will cut their prices long after the investors and builders, and then have to compensate with big cuts.

Tampa, Naples, St. Pete are getting absolutely nuked, it's spreading to Orlando, Jax is often the least wild of all Florida regions, but Miami is showing signs of real decline now in prices.

Just FYI, Zillow and I believe Redfin have altered their 2025 forecasts downwards several times since just the end of last year.

WookieMan says

The Boomers are done. Their sales already happened or they're staying and handing it down to the kids. If the kids decide to sell that's one thing, but someone will likely end up living there in the family.

"I can't understand why somebody doesn't want to live in the Villages surrounded by grouchy old people who vote down all the school money and doesn't want to commute an hour to Orlando in heavy traffic!" - Boomer or their Millie children homesellers in 2030

AmericanKulak says

WookieMan says

The Boomers are done. Their sales already happened or they're staying and handing it down to the kids. If the kids decide to sell that's one thing, but someone will likely end up living there in the family.

"I can't understand why somebody doesn't want to live in the Villages surrounded by grouchy old people who vote down all the school money and doesn't want to commute an hour to Orlando in heavy traffic!" - Boomer or their Millie children homesellers in 2030

so you think The Villages will be a ghost town ? or not as worse but there will be a depreciation of home value there ?

that is why I like Panama City and Bay County area diversifying its economy among tourism (ecotourism of Beach, the two major military bases, Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, etc), the boat outboard engine manufacturing plant and testing site, etc

and they are trying to establish small scale of senior living homes by leveraging heavily on technology like Amazon Alexa and Visiting Angels

https://developer.amazon.com/en-US/alexa/seniorliving

and they are bringing in industrial manufacturers to the industrial area next to the airport

the biggest advantage is that Panama City is within about a 16 hour drive of Chicago , and about 5 hours within Atlanta

.

.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1841-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87634148_zpid/

All the upgrades and renewals boosted unit 1841's value by about $40,000 ; so an unmodeled AND "original" MEP systems like HVAC, unit 1841 would sell for around $235,000

what is ironic is that it sold for around $272,000 this month which is the same maximum price it sold during the 2003 to 2006 housing bubble

.