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It feels to me like Kiesel is right.
I am looking at rent and home prices in the Florida panhandle within 10 miles of the beach. They have gone up about 30% over the last 2 years. They need to go down to spring 2020 levels to make them affordable for the working class. They likely will over correct and drop to 2018 levels.
Stocks are not overvalued much if you compare the PE ratio now to 2000: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio?source=patrick.net
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On this metric stocks are in huge bubble
FarmersWon saysOn this metric stocks are in huge bubble
Yes, I have followed the Warren Buffet valuation for stocks. Market cap needs to go down more relative to GDP. A lot of the run up is from the significant increase in demand, thanks to monetary and fiscal policies.
The left wing media has been reporting about this. Just look at Tyson Foods stock price and PE ratio.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/27/inflation-corporate-america-increased-prices-profits?source=patrick.net
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they will be forced to reduce excessive price increase
Also a guy sells in 2006 and buys in 2012 and is now the authority figure for all future RE moves.
But Zillow is still telling me to expect double digit 1yr forecast % gain. 🧐
BayArea says
Also a guy sells in 2006 and buys in 2012 and is now the authority figure for all future RE moves.
But Zillow is still telling me to expect double digit 1yr forecast % gain. 🧐
Agreed he is wrong. There will be no decline for obvious reasons, immigrant pressure. The wealthier will seek refuge in good areas and keep bidding them up
So I get that folks view RE as an investment, like a less liquid stock or bond. I am seeing a lot more homes coming on the market, the sellers trying to get an annual 20-25% gain on a home with minimal to no improvements, that was purchased 2-4 years ago. It seems like a magical belief to expect someone to pay you 50% more for the home you bought two years ago, doesn't it, especially when the tide seems to be turning?
Here in the tri valley, exactly what you describe is happening in the early part of 2022. We have friends in the area who are walking away with >50% gain on houses they bought 2-3yrs ago.
100% right… not to mention a massive property tax reset.
Yes, the ones that sold in 2022 are moving back to be with family out of state. They are living the CA dream. Come to CA, spend 2-3yrs working an assignment in tech, and take a $1,000,000 of equity with you back to your home state (ya, half of that is tax free but still)
Yes in this case the couples had good jobs and were able to afford 2019 homes.
Yes in this case the couples had good jobs and were able to afford 2019 homes.
Also, curious where you are getting the sales figures? Will be very interesting how those numbers look 2-3mo from now.
But Zillow is still telling me to expect double digit 1yr forecast % gain. 🧐
Agreed he is wrong. There will be no decline for obvious reasons, immigrant pressure. The wealthier will seek refuge in good areas and keep bidding them up
Talking One's Book
1. The act of promoting a stock one owns in order to entice others to buy it. This would in turn benefit one's own investment portfolio. Talking one's book is not a well-regarded strategy.
2. More generally, the act of promoting one's company, product or other good or service.
once things get normal and layoff season is back, the remote will be cut first or forced to come back.
The Bay area has a 10% unoccupancy rate, people just buy homes here as an "investment". When the dam breaks, it will be interesting.
BayArea saysHere in the tri valley, exactly what you describe is happening in the early part of 2022. We have friends in the area who are walking away with >50% gain on houses they bought 2-3yrs ago.
Yes it is true but make sense only if you are leaving bay area.
They will have trouble getting back in market after realtor,uncle sam's and paper manager's cut.
The people who are buying have shit load of money and won't default or lower prices anytime soon.
(Flushed with RSU & real estate sale in south bay money)
richwicks saysThe Bay area has a 10% unoccupancy rate,
Then lots of room for illegals to squat..
From my real estate network, the last 3-4 weeks suggested the market is in a holding pattern. Buyers, who used to qualify for $1.8-$2.2M, are getting bumped down to $1.5-$1.8M due to higher interest rate.
Buyers have become more selective. However, homes in good location still sell nicely. Does 2022 feel like 2006 now?
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.