patrick.net

D.R. Horton’s first-quarter earnings fell short of estimates on Thursday with the company cutting its full-year forecasts.

Executives said sales in the start of the spring season have been slower than expected.

A number of homebuilders are set to report their own results in the next two weeks.

D.R. Horton (DHI) on Thursday became the latest homebuilder to raise concerns about the housing market as it fell short of estimates.

The company cut its full-year forecasts for both revenue and homes closed as its first-quarter results missed expectations, saying that the spring selling season has "started slower than expected" amid concerns over affordability and worsening consumer confidence. (The shares rose yesterday, likely aided by an expanded buyback plan and encouraging margins.)

That could increase the focus on the next round of results due from the industry. PulteGroup (PHM), Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC), Meritage Homes (MTH), Tri Pointe Homes (TPH), Century Communities (CCS), and M/I Homes (MHO) each report next week, with NVR (NVR), LGI Homes (LGIH), and Green Brick Partners (GRBK) are due the week after.

D.R. Horton's report echoed others that have already arrived. KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN) and Toll Brothers (TOL) have all said they have seen a slow housing market in the first quarter. D.R. Horton COO Michael Murray said in Thursday's earnings call that affordability remains a "pressure point" for homebuyers, per an AlphaSense transcript.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/d-r-horton-lamented-slow-174324907.html

Again, the spread between new and old in FL is very small. If new can't sell with incentives so builders were forced to cut more... that is not a good sign.

AD says

so you think The Villages will be a ghost town ? or not as worse but there will be a depreciation of home value there ?

Not quite a ghost town, depending IF Orlando diversifies it's economy, finally.

AmericanKulak says

AD says

so you think The Villages will be a ghost town ? or not as worse but there will be a depreciation of home value there ?

Not quite a ghost town, depending IF Orlando diversifies it's economy, finally.

Good point as its about 58 miles from the center of The Villages to downtown Orlando.

There could be job centers like tech and manufacturing on the northwest side of Orlando and its outer suburbs like Clermont so the drive would only be about 42 miles.

Reminds me of Linden and Front Royal Virginia which have become bedroom communities for those that work 30 miles away in the outer suburbs of Washington DC like Haymarket and Manassas.

.

.

interesting article about Florida and residential property insurance costs

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14619803/americans-no-longer-moving-southern-boomtown-hurting-housing-market.html

.

AD says

There could be job centers like tech and manufacturing on the northwest side of Orlando and its outer suburbs like Clermont so the drive would only be about 42 miles.

Orlando has a looooong way to go until it is anything like SFBA, Boston, etc. Apopka is famous for... nurseries. It is still mostly wiping elderly ass, hotel housekeeping, and taking tickets for the Mouse.

Florida's main problem - UNLIKE Texas - is the lack of diversified industry. Florida is ass wiping, early bird special server, and shuttle bus driver. Most of the cruise ships get their maintenance in third world ports. A few get into a growing city selling insurance or real estate or mortgage origination; Florida is also very growth dependent. It's great for NJ and MN city workers or teachers with $70k/year in retirement.

This was fine when the min wage was $7+/hr and one could rent a non-ghetto 2 bedroom for $700/month and the Diner or Shoney's (defunct?) was $3.99 for a Burger or Bacon, Eggs, Toast

I sometimes wonder if Residential Real Estate Developers fight against Industry coming to FL.

Consider the source, but yeah, the $13/hr at McDs is mandatory state minimum, which states with far lower living costs implemented years ago. Ending credentialism from UNarmed Security Guard, Nurses Aid, etc. - jobs that traditionally didn't require weeks of coursework and exams - would be more helpful - but of course that's not wanted by politicians who take money to require these programs at employee expense (also not Traditional Americanism, those were borne by the employer historically for non-pro, non-skilled trade employees) to reduce insurance costs for businesses.
https://www.wusf.org/politics-issues/2025-03-26/florida-lawmakers-want-lower-minimum-wage-some-workers

Florida's nursing shortage might be because it's dead last in pay for Nurses, lower than Arkansas, Louisiana, and even West Virginia. But it sure ain't priced like Arkansas and West Virginia.
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/What-Is-the-Average-RN-Salary-by-State

AmericanKulak says

This was fine when the min wage was $7+/hr and one could rent a non-ghetto 2 bedroom for $700/month and the Diner or Shoney's (defunct?) was $3.99 for a Burger or Bacon, Eggs, Toast

Good point on the standard of living (and cost of living) in Florida. I like to track the average starting wage for McDonalds (around $15 an hour in Panama City, Florida) to the price of a Big Mac meal, the rent cost for a 1 and 2 bedroom apartments, etc

I remember paying $300 a month for a 1 bedroom garage apartment in 1993 in Panama City Beach when the average starting wage was around $5 an hour for fast food and a redfish meal (with drink) at Rude Roys seafood was $7.

So Florida is more expensive then West Virginia especially in regards to housing but pays less. So who is getting rich or wealthy from that imbalance ? The residential contractors ? where is the money going ?
.

AmericanKulak says

Not quite a ghost town, depending IF Orlando diversifies it's economy, finally.

Villages is what? 55 an older? Diversifying the economy won't change that.

MolotovCocktail says

AmericanKulak says

Not quite a ghost town, depending IF Orlando diversifies it's economy, finally.

Villages is what? 55 an older? Diversifying the economy won't change that.

True, as the +55 year old owner likely is retired and not looking for a white colored tech job or light-manufacturing job in the outer suburbs of Tampa or Orlando (within 35 minutes drive) such as Ridge Manor (off of Interstate 75 and near Tampa area).

Unless others living in these The Villages homes like spouses (age 40 to 55) are looking to work in those types of jobs.

But it may prop up The Villages real estate as it elevates real estate just south of The Villages which is home to these workers in the white colored jobs and light manufacturing sector.

.

AD says

Front Royal Virginia which have become bedroom communities for those that work 30 miles away in the outer suburbs of Washington DC like Haymarket and Manassas.

Front Royal as a bedroom community for Manassas? Must be because of I-66.

HeadSet says

AD says

Front Royal Virginia which have become bedroom communities for those that work 30 miles away in the outer suburbs of Washington DC like Haymarket and Manassas.

Front Royal as a bedroom community for Manassas? Must be because of I-66.

Yes, Interstate 66 as I knew quite a few from Linden and Front Royal that commuted to Lockheed Martin's and BAE's (formerly IBM) manufacturing plants in Manassas
.

MolotovCocktail says

Villages is what? 55 an older? Diversifying the economy won't change that.

I am thinking 10-20 years down the line when the current inhabitants pass on or enter nursing homes/assisted living.

There is NO similar number of retirees headed their way; GenX is much reduced in size to Boomers, and poorer

AD says

So Florida is more expensive then West Virginia especially in regards to housing but pays less. So who is getting rich or wealthy from that imbalance ? The residential contractors ? where is the money going ?

Florida RNs (not CNAs, not LPNs) make less than even West Virginia and Arkansas, 50th, lowest in the Union. Level 1-2 tech support in health care pays only $17-20/hr in Florida, far less than the national averages. Florida used to host Disney Tech Support until it was famously outsourced like Lou Dobbs covered over a decade ago. Construction I don't even need to mention.
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/What-Is-the-Average-RN-Salary-by-State

But the cost of living in those other bottom wage states is much cheaper than Florida. For $250k outside Wheeling or Fayetteville you're getting a helluva property that includes acreage and almost certainly no work needed to find a house outside an HOA.

Florida's emmigration has collapsed from over 200k/year to 60k, and several cities like Tampa posted their first loss of population in history.

AD says

track the average starting wage for McDonalds (around $15 an hour in Panama City, Florida) to the price of a Big Mac meal

I prefer ground beef and gas. Or buying a 10-year old jalopy (Grandma's grocery-church car or Bob's former commuter car that his wife drove for a while, too) with 80k miles.... or splitting a 2 bed! Looking at the basic costs, not optional things. Mass Transit is for Europeans and major coastal metropolis dwellers, not real Americans.

I'd rather make $4.25/hr and get 5lb of ground beef or 5 gallons of gas and pay ~$400/month rent and $2000 for Grandma's Gunboat or Randy the Redneck's beat up truck than make $15 in 2025! That equivalent 12-year old Honda Civic with 110k miles is more like $12,000 today, not making that after a summer's worth of work! That was already given to a female college student to drive for years on top of it all with no oil changes unless dad noticed.

AmericanKulak says

I'd rather make

Have to do a like comparison based on quality of life and standard of living.

Such as $4.25 an hour and $400 rent versus $15 an hour and $1200 rent as well as what is offered for the rent like internet, water/sewer, etc, and the location (to job centers and how safe it is), etc

Problem is from my experience in FL is retirees are totally cheap skates. Hard to make a living if you're Gen X or younger. Outside of while collar jobs you're a pool boy, landscaper, maid, restaurant worker or hotel worker. Those are all generally crap jobs unless you own the business or property.

Almost all the jobs I list are low pay or rely on tips. Retirees are the worst tippers. Also when I can,I see low tips from southerns. I just think it's a southern thing. Also tourism in FL is generally cheap people from the South and some northern states. Might be their first vacation in 5 years and don't realize the overall cost of a trip.

Basically a rough go of it if you're not a lawyer, doctor, accountant, etc. type. Construction work you might do well.

WookieMan says

Construction work you might do well.

Tee hee, find out how much masons, carpenters, etc. make in FL vs. IL

AmericanKulak says

WookieMan says

Construction work you might do well.

Tee hee, find out how much masons, carpenters, etc. make in FL vs. IL

I said might. I don't know the wages down there. I know my guys are doing pretty well on our house, but it's custom. So stuff just costs more including labor.

WookieMan says

I don't know the wages down there.

Carpenters and Masons basically make in the high teens and low 20s. HVAC low $20s. The elite skilled perhaps mid-high $20s.

Basically the most elite tradesmen in Florida make what entry-level does in most other states, esp. ones with comparable home prices.

If you think I'm exaggerating:
The average entry/mid-level salary for an HVAC technician is around $22 per hour. This equals $45,760 per year.
The average salary for a senior HVAC technician is $27.65 per hour. This equals $57,512 per year.‍
https://faradaycareers.com/careers/hvac-salary-florida

AD says

But it may prop up The Villages real estate as it elevates real estate just south of The Villages which is home to these workers in the white colored jobs and light manufacturing sector.

Sure. But I would demand that the realtor omit the Villages from whatever CMA resort they generate.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

But it may prop up The Villages real estate as it elevates real estate just south of The Villages which is home to these workers in the white colored jobs and light manufacturing sector.

Sure. But I would demand that the realtor omit the Villages from whatever CMA resort they generate.

The Villages may undergo reforms to increase demand for its housing and adapt to the demographic changes such as its no longer a +55 year old community.

It's within about 15 minutes of Ocala and 60 minutes to Gainesville (assume avg speed is 60 mph on Interstate 75) and 60 minutes to Walt Disney World.

Ocala is a growing jobs center: https://www.wcjb.com/2025/04/16/continuous-growth-ocala-causing-businesses-expand/

.
.

The average wage in Florida is a whopping $24/hr (actually a little less but rounding up here).
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/--in-Florida

These are what Florida jobs pay Florida employees, not what Harrisburg, PA School District or Lockheed Martin retiree gets in pension.

My guess that the $55k income was inflated by pensions was correct.

At 33% of income devoted to housing, it means a 2 bed should be about $1270/month for rent OR equivalent PITI payment.

At $1700/month, Florida average 2 bedroom rent would suck out 45% of a median wage earners salary. And I didn't take anything off for Soc Sec or Tax withholds or Health Care contributions, etc. I generously considered the entire gross pay. If I didn't, it would probably be 50%.

But, the $1700 has dropped and will continue to do so.

Florida goes up one point to the 49th least affordable state (Cost of Living vs. Average wages) in the Union:

“Grocery prices, rent, you know, all that is getting higher, and they’re not paying any more,” said Kwame Ratliff, who lives in West Palm Beach. “I am looking to move, because it is a little expensive here.”

According to personal finance website WalletHub, Florida ranked Florida number 49, nearly dead last as the least affordable state.

“What should we do to kind of get that ranking up?” asked WFLX reporter Joel Lopez.

“Well for starters, maybe make the state a little more affordable,” said Chip Lupo, a writer and analyst with WalletHub.

Lupo said that affordability is factored in housing costs, income, debt and more.

...

Affordability, while low, is one spot higher at 49 than last year when Florida ranked as the worst, landing the number 50 spot.

https://www.wflx.com/2025/01/14/this-is-where-florida-ranks-affordability/

Nothing that pounding down rents and asset prices can't fix.

AmericanKulak says

At $1700/month, Florida average 2 bedroom rent would suck out 45% of a median wage earners salary.

I know someone looking to move to Colorado Springs and a nice 2 bedroom/2 bath apartment is $2000 there , and the apartment management company says they allow up to 50% of income to go to the rent as far as qualifying to lease there.

Colorado Springs is about 8% more in cost of living than Panama City Beach Florida (which used to be cheap when I first stationed there in early 1990s like a nice 1 bedroom garage apartment on the beach was $300)

and Colorado Springs is about 7% more in cost of living than the national average, whereas Panama City Beach is 1% more than the national average.

.

Seems there are many states that are a lot less affordable than Florida. Is that stat for real?

AmericanKulak says

Affordability, while low, is one spot higher at 49 than last year when Florida ranked as the worst, landing the number 50 spot.

https://www.wflx.com/2025/01/14/this-is-where-florida-ranks-affordability/

Nothing that pounding down rents and asset prices can't fix.

I see Trump trying to do that , and Powell is also to some extent as the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its mortgage back securities holdings (i.e., quantitative tightening). The Wolfman at Wolf Street has a very informative article about this at the Wolf Street website.

Back in 2016 we bought a new 3 bedroom/2.5 bath/2 car garage townhome in Panama City Beach. Our 30 yr mortgage rate was and remains 3%.

It seemed affordable for the service worker types back then as our bank said we just needed $37,000 in annual income to qualify as the housing monthly cost was $800 principal + interest, $100 property tax, $100 property insurance and $250 HOA regular assessment.

So the $1250 monthly housing cost was about 40% of gross income.

Assuming a 3% annual appreciation rate since 2016, the home could sell for around $245,000 and the costs are around $400 for HOA regular assessment, $150 for property tax, $150 for property insurance.

Assume 7% interest rate for 30 year mortgage and 0% down payment (i.e. VA mortgage, etc) and the monthly mortgage is around $1630.

So total monthly cost now is $2430 compared to $1250 in 2016

Monthly housing cost for our type of Panama City Beach townhome has increased about 8% since 2016 and that is what American Kulak has been explaining why Florida is that unaffordable :-(

.

AmericanKulak says

If you think I'm exaggerating:

I don't think that. The problem is it's a service industry state by a large margin. 90% of IL is farm fields. Then Chicago with tech, banking and other large firms. Our government also pays well. The guys on the crews for my wife's company are knocking out $45-65/hr. Overtime is in the $100/hr range. They then get unemployment and do cash side jobs in the winter. They're making $100-120/yr.

I think this is how FL can do without state income tax. Low wages. $45/hr is 100% more than $20/hr in taxes.

I don't get it, everyone up here has some expensive toy. $40k side by side. Boat. IL is still a laughing stock, but people do very well here. Outside of maybe Chicago, no one wakes up and is like, let's go to IL. Most the business is for higher end people. No people on a budget coming from AL, GA, MS or TN. Those aren't big spenders here. Usually foreigners.

AD says

I know someone looking to move to Colorado Springs and a nice 2 bedroom/2 bath apartment is $2000 there , and the apartment management company says they allow up to 50% of income to go to the rent as far as qualifying to lease there.

Colorado Springs is about 8% more in cost of living than Panama City Beach Florida (which used to be cheap when I first stationed there in early 1990s like a nice 1 bedroom garage apartment on the beach was $300)

and Colorado Springs is about 7% more in cost of living than the national average, whereas Panama City Beach is 1% more than the national average.

The average hourly wage for workers in the Colorado Springs, CO Metropolitan Statistical Area was $31.59 in May 2023, which is slightly higher than the nationwide average of $31.48.
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mountain-plains/news-release/occupationalemploymentandwages_coloradosprings.htm

Here's the same for Panama City, $25.37
https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes_37460.htm#00-0000

Both are from 2023. So the wage difference is 20% in favor of Colorado.

Ceffer says

Seems there are many states that are a lot less affordable than Florida. Is that stat for real?

It's real. Affordability is a mix of income versus cost of living.

Retirement Articles and other pieces leave out the income part of the equation and act as if wages are similar nationally.

AD says

Monthly housing cost for our type of Panama City Beach townhome has increased about 8% since 2016 and that is what American Kulak has been explaining why Florida is that unaffordable :-(

My monthly building expense is up from $320 in 2018 to $460 in 2024, 90% of that was insurance costs, 10% everything else (trash, maintenance, etc) My property tax went from ~$800/year to $1150 in about the same time period.

I believe we got hit by one tropical storm AFTER it crossed the state from the West and was weak (the eye passed almost exactly over the Shuttle Airstrip) and damage was minimal.

Whatever is driving high costs in Florida, it isn't wage increases. It's FIRE fuckery. Take a look at FL State Salaries and compare to your State for a shock.

WookieMan says

I think this is how FL can do without state income tax.

Tourism helps a lot with 7% sales tax on hotel rooms and vacation rentals, as well as 5% "bed tax" also. Panama City Beach has about 18,000 hotel rooms, motel rooms, and Beach condo rentals. Figure 50% occupancy with very conservative average $225 per evening and that is

18,000 units x 0.5 x 365 days x $225 per day x 0.07 = $51,738,750 in sales tax going to the state

about 1/7 of that $51.73 million stays within Bay County and 6/7 of it goes to the state government in Tallahassee

a lot of the "bed tax" money stays within Bay County like they pay local contractors to build a sports park, pay contractors to maintain the sports park facilities, etc.

.

Zillow downgrades their forecast for the housing market yet again. I think this is the 3-4th time since late last year

This time across every major metro area in the USA.

AmericanKulak says

Zillow downgrades their forecast for the housing market yet again. I think this is the 3-4th time since late last year

This time across every major metro area in the USA.

Maybe the air will slowly be let out of the housing balloon for the next 3 to 5 years while income increases about 2.5% a year and the 30 yr mortgage rate remains no more than 7%.

.

AmericanKulak says

This time across every major metro area in the USA.

My usual hint. Don't live in a major metro areas. Millennials and Boomers have moved at this point. So demand is low because of prices for Gen Z in urban and suburban areas. I've always pegged Gen X as the stubborn grunge generation that wants to defy what is obvious. That was my former boss that did change even when presented with data. So they plant their roots and stay.

Boomers will cut and run from metros. Millennials have kids and run. Most I know have have a 30 min max commute or work from home. There's no point in being in a major metro. With kids I honestly think it's a form of child abuse to live in a city and even many suburbs.

I wish these companies would do better stats and press on rural areas. That doesn't get them clicks though. I wish I still had my MLS access. I could prove my point in probably 10 min. with stats. I don't trust the public stuff or what's reported. Also people don't know this but you can opt out of IDX, data shared to public websites. Basically hidden listings. We had sellers that didn't want neighbors to know the house was on the market.

Basically there's a shadow market you cats won't even know about, only brokers with the access. You'd only find out if/when it closes or if you have a buyers agent. This is mostly for privacy issues. A lot of people don't want neighbors coming through their house for various reasons.

AD says

3 to 5 years while income increases about 2.5% a year

https://www.zillow.com/research/march-2025-market-report-35082/

Home values flatten as sellers outnumber buyers (March 2025 Market Report)

https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-sell-slowest-pace-since-2019/

U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-sell-slowest-pace-since-2019/

U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years

zzyzzx says

https://www.zillow.com/research/march-2025-market-report-35082/

Home values flatten as sellers outnumber buyers (March 2025 Market Report)

One motivation factor for selling is the proliferation of subprime mortgages as owners are unable to remain financial solvent with paying at least mortgage and property tax, while the HOA assessment balance, if applicable, continues to increase.

I remember even in my townhome HOA back in 2007 to 2011 of homeowners just walking away and their townhomes becoming "Real Estate Owned (REO)" and/or sold in a fire sale.

Are the same conditions now as they were 2007 to 2011 such as unemployment ? Granted the Feds balance sheet is a lot bigger now (relative to GDP) than it was back then.