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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   493,571 views  4,897 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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2449   GNL   2023 May 31, 1:35pm  

@Bitcoiner

My point is 1. you were wrong about bitcoin and 2. you lucked into RE. No one predicted what happened between 2020 and 2022.

@Eman is a much more reliable source of information because he gives much better information and it is not a stretch, at all, to believe he did his research in 2010(?) and went full force into RE.
2450   gabbar   2023 May 31, 1:43pm  

zzyzzx says





Last quarter of 2023 will be interesting, with 2024 elections in November. Let's go Brandon.
2451   GNL   2023 May 31, 3:13pm  

gabbar says

zzyzzx says






Last quarter of 2023 will be interesting, with 2024 elections in November. Let's go Brandon.

I have a commercial realtor client and he says commercial real estate is doing very well. He/we are in northern Virginia.
2452   Eman   2023 May 31, 3:34pm  

GNL says

gabbar says


zzyzzx says







Last quarter of 2023 will be interesting, with 2024 elections in November. Let's go Brandon.


I have a commercial realtor client and he says commercial real estate is doing very well. He/we are in northern Virginia.

@GNL,

I think 2 asset class, that will get hit harder than others, are office and retail although Arbor had to foreclose $230M in Class C multifamily apartments from a syndicator in Houston.

We haven’t felt it here in San Jose and Bay Area in general.

This whale in my market is trying to flip this turnkey building for 4.4 cap. Who is going to pay that in the current market? It’s negative leverage right off the bat with NO upside potential. This pocket/street is weak too for the pricing.

Funny this deal came across our desk last year. We offered $5.2M for it. We believe we could make it worth $7.8-$8M when done. The listing agent was whispering $5.5-$5.6M to the deal to go down. Then out of nowhere this buyer paid $6.8M for it. We were shocked.


2453   GNL   2023 May 31, 3:44pm  

Eman says

This whale in my market is trying to flip this turnkey building for 4.4 cap. Who is going to pay that in the current market? It’s negative leverage right off the bat with NO upside potential. This pocket/street is weak too for the pricing.

I imagine there's an equation I could use to figure out the asking price? What is he/she/they asking for it now?
2454   Eman   2023 May 31, 3:51pm  

@GNL,

$9.35M. His pro-forms is pure horse 💩

I know both agents. Bought something from Mitch before. Haven’t been able to strike a deal with Carlos….yet. Nice guys. They’re sharks, but the more “ethical” sharks. 🤪


2455   Eman   2023 May 31, 3:56pm  

Residential agents are like Walmart and Target thieves while commercial agents are like politician thieves. When you’re swimming with 🦈 🦈, you’d better know where you stand. It’s a brutal world out there.
2456   zzyzzx   2023 May 31, 3:58pm  

So, buying Tbills is better then buying an apartment building!
2457   Eman   2023 May 31, 4:03pm  

GNL says

Eman says


This whale in my market is trying to flip this turnkey building for 4.4 cap. Who is going to pay that in the current market? It’s negative leverage right off the bat with NO upside potential. This pocket/street is weak too for the pricing.

I imagine there's an equation I could use to figure out the asking price? What is he/she/they asking for it now?

Oh yes. There are only a few variables. Gross rent, expenses, cap rate and wishing price. Knowing other variables, you can figure out the unknown one. Interest rate is not part of the calculation when determine the cap rate. Pro-forma is “what’s the maximum rent you could achieve for the units”.
2458   Eman   2023 May 31, 4:04pm  

zzyzzx says

So, buying Tbills is better then buying an apartment building!

Maybe it is for you. I’m not smart enough to know to be honest.
2459   GNL   2023 May 31, 4:55pm  

Eman says

zzyzzx says


So, buying Tbills is better then buying an apartment building!

Maybe it is for you. I’m not smart enough to know to be honest.

Is there anyone who has achieved billionaire status investing in Tbills?
2460   Eman   2023 May 31, 7:09pm  

GNL says

Eman says


zzyzzx says



So, buying Tbills is better then buying an apartment building!

Maybe it is for you. I’m not smart enough to know to be honest.


Is there anyone who has achieved billionaire status investing in Tbills?

There has been 2 bond kings. One was Bill Gross and one is Jeffrey Gundlach. I don’t know if they became billionaires investing in T bills. Other than that, I’ve met a few real estate billionaires in the Bay Area, and I’m sure you can google and find plenty more who became billionaires through real estate. However, I believe most people became billionaires through entrepreneurship…..real estate included.
2461   Eman   2023 May 31, 8:02pm  

Mr. Zell was raspy-voiced and blunt, with little patience for cockeyed ideas or sentimentality. He exulted in his reputation for using salty language even in politically correct times. It made him popular on the speaking circuit, where attendees eagerly listened for his business insights and for the entertainment he might provide. - RIP Mr. Zell.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/business/2023/5/18/23728642/sam-zell-dies-obituary-billionaire-chicago-equity-group
2463   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2023 Jun 1, 7:47am  

GNL says

Is there anyone who has achieved billionaire status investing in Tbills?

It be about diversification. A 5% risk-free return ain’t too shabby.
2464   RWSGFY   2023 Jun 1, 8:04am  

GNL says

Bitcoiner says




Sry I am not following. Why would my equity disappear? I am not selling any real estate. In fact I plan on holding my RE and hand it down to the kids. I root for lower prices so I can buy more. equity in my homes going up or down doesn’t mean much to me for the next 5 plus years. I can’t do a cash out refi with these high rates and I actually don’t plant to refinance for a while anyways.

I think you might be a Realtor...it's ALWAYS a good time to buy. Suzanne researched it.


He's just overly enthusiastic about anything he's currently invested in, be it crypto, vaxx or now SFH rentals. =)
2465   NuttBoxer   2023 Jun 1, 8:26am  

Bitcoiner says

Nuttboxer, you would need to ask the tenants not me. I don’t even deal with them or push the increases. It’s all handled by my PM. I saw your Zillow pull. Yes you can find rents below 2k but the quality is not comparable to the newer SFH houses, location and condition I am invested in. I never said you can’t find a cheaper place, I just shared what I see and what I charge. I don’t even look at crapshacks to be honest. You might even find a place for under 500 in someone’s garage or for a place to put up a tent. That’s not my investment area. Quality places for quality renters. My buddy rents out his casita in surprise for 2400 cash per month. Usually short term. It’s tiny but fully furnished.


I didn't cull the list, but out of 60+ properties, there were plenty of nice ones in there. So your assumption of quality is disingenuous. I honestly don't give a shit about a house being new, except that if it's new enough, there are way to many chemical in the air for my interest. Place we rented just off Greenway and 67th wasn't new, but not outdated at all. Had a speaker system wired up for the patio, high ceilings, large master, and a pool. Looks like after we moved out three years ago, the price bumped up $100 to $1,650, no idea if they've raised again, but the sweet old lady who owned it didn't raise while we lived there.

I guess just like any market, there are savvy renters, and those who will pay anything...
2466   NuttBoxer   2023 Jun 1, 8:35am  

I'm fairly private, so not going to post it, but you should have more than enough info already if you're really interested. Just ask you don't post the address.
2467   GNL   2023 Jun 1, 12:45pm  

Bitcoiner says

Why would my equity disappear? I am not selling any real estate. In fact I plan on holding my RE and hand it down to the kids.

Same as...

"Why would my bitcoin profits disappear? I am not selling any bitcoin. In fact I plan on holding my bitcoin and hand it down to the kids."?
2468   Eman   2023 Jun 1, 3:22pm  

@Nuttboxer,

We recently stayed in Glendale while we took the kids to Universal Studios. Very nice city. I was impressed.
2469   NuttBoxer   2023 Jun 1, 7:18pm  

Actually, it's Glendale AZ, not Glendale CA. A bit further from Universal, but I would still say pretty nice(depending on which part of town).
2470   NuttBoxer   2023 Jun 1, 7:27pm  

Bitcoiner says

NuttBoxer says


I'm fairly private, so not going to post it, but you should have more than enough info already if you're really interested. Just ask you don't post the address.


I knew it! Here is another question. Instead of posting the address. Just look it up by yourself, send a screenshot of the sqft, pictures and the rental history. Don’t have to disclose the address. Can you do that?


My personal laptop uses Linux, and screenshots are not something I've ever had a need to learn. If you're ok with @Patrick sharing your email, I can send it to you directly.
2471   Patrick   2023 Jun 1, 7:34pm  

@NuttBoxer If you tip Bitcoiner one cent, then you can include your email address in a short private message with the tip.
2472   Eman   2023 Jun 1, 7:53pm  

For anyone who isn’t familiar with commercial loans and the prepayment penalty, here are the rates for 5/1, 7/1 and 10/1 ARMs.

For example: if you pay off the loan in the 1st year, you pay 3% penalty of the remaining loan balance. If you pay it off within the 2 years, it’s 2% of the remaining loan balance, and 1% within the first 3 years. After 3 years, no penalty. You can refinance or pay off the loan as you wish. The loan will become adjustable after 5 years if you don’t refinance. You can let it “float” based on the terms of the “Note”. I believe the terms are 2% increase maximum per year and not to exceed 6% for the life of the loan so 7.5% in year 6, 9.5% in year 7 and 11.5% after….and it’s capped at 11.5% for the remaining life of the loan.


2473   NuttBoxer   2023 Jun 1, 8:21pm  

Patrick says

NuttBoxer If you tip Bitcoiner one cent, then you can include your email address in a short private message with the tip.


Ok, didn't see it in the comment like I used to, didn't realize we still had it.
2474   Patrick   2023 Jun 1, 9:36pm  

NuttBoxer says

Ok, didn't see it in the comment like I used to, didn't realize we still had it.


Good point, I should have the tip link in comments again.
2475   Patrick   2023 Jun 1, 9:37pm  

https://notthebee.com/article/dont-look-now-but-it-looks-like-the-housing-bubble-is-beginning-to-pop


Our insane housing bubble is poised to pop as prices tumbled a record amount year-over-year

The median U.S. home sale price fell 4.1% ($17,603) year over year in April to $408,031. That's the biggest drop on record in dollar terms and the largest decline since January 2012 in percentage terms. April marked the third consecutive month of year-over-year declines following roughly a decade of increases.



2476   AmericanKulak   2023 Jun 1, 9:39pm  

I'm watching several 2 bed condos and mainland SFHs, all of which were $350-$500k

They've all dropped $5k-$20k in either of the past two months and two have dropped in both April and May.

One of these was the 3 bed/1.5 bath 1200 sq ft 1980s SFH competing with a literally Brand New never occupied Horton home a few streets away (same school, etc.) that was only $30k more expensive but had a bonus room and a full second bath with a few hundred more Sqft (though half the acreage) AND the developer will pay all closing costs. They cut $20k last month to a "reasonable" $320k. Reasonable is more like $250K.
2477   GNL   2023 Jun 2, 4:52am  

Inventory continues to be an issue. What will change it?
2478   zzyzzx   2023 Jun 2, 5:31am  

GNL says

Inventory continues to be an issue. What will change it?


A recession.
Investors selling off houses. No reason to be a landlord when T-bills pay the same rate without having to deal with scummy renters.
Deaths (I'm thinking Florida and Arizona here)
More new home and apartments being built (getting there with apartments). New homes are plentiful in some locations.
Inflation and other increased costs (insurance and property taxes in particular) eating away at people's incomes causing them to sell off that vacation house (Florida comes to mind here).
Increases in Condo fees in theory should cause a glut of condos to sell off or turn to rentals.
2479   gabbar   2023 Jun 2, 5:41am  

On one side, there is less inventory. And people have locked in low mortgage rates. On the other side, there are too many things not going in a positive direction. The consequences of this equation hasn't appeared yet but it will/should in the first quarter of 2024 if not earlier.
2480   GNL   2023 Jun 2, 6:46am  

Bitcoiner says

Don’t confuse investors with landlords. I am an investor and don’t deal with any tenant.

Not every comment made here is about you.
2481   GNL   2023 Jun 2, 6:46am  

Bitcoiner says


Most importantly, you can leverage your RE assets, often possible due to significant appreciation over time.

I thought you were hoping to lose significant equity so you could buy more RE. Which is weird because don't you need significant equity so you can buy more RE?
2482   NuttBoxer   2023 Jun 2, 8:30am  

You seem to be selectively filtering facts again to meet your narrative. We lived there for a year, owner never raised the rent. They did raise it for the new tenant, but only to $1,650. They would have had to raise it over a hundred a year ever year, and our experience says that didn't happen.

Also, you again ignore the rentals for under $2,000 I linked you to in that area.
2483   GNL   2023 Jun 2, 8:34am  

NuttBoxer says


You seem to be selectively filtering facts again to meet your narrative. We lived there for a year, owner never raised the rent. They did raise it for the new tenant, but only to $1,650. They would have had to raise it over a hundred a year ever year, and our experience says that didn't happen.

Also, you again ignore the rentals for under $2,000 I linked you to in that area.

I'm pretty sure he's a poser.
2487   Eman   2023 Jun 2, 1:48pm  

NuttBoxer says


You seem to be selectively filtering facts again to meet your narrative. We lived there for a year, owner never raised the rent. They did raise it for the new tenant, but only to $1,650. They would have had to raise it over a hundred a year ever year, and our experience says that didn't happen.

Also, you again ignore the rentals for under $2,000 I linked you to in that area.

Maybe this rent amount was a few years ago, and rent has gone up since? In general, you can get cheaper rents from landlords vs. professionally managed rentals.

I still have a handful of rentals that are $500-$700/month below market rents. These tenants have been with me for a decade or more so I leave them alone and just increase minimal each year. If any rental gets turnover now, I’ll turn them over to my PM and let them deal with new tenants. They charge me 6% flat rate for SFH and condos. 5% flat for apartments. Sweet deal.
2488   Eman   2023 Jun 2, 2:39pm  

Bitcoiner says



Pretty sure NuttBoxer does not agree with anything I send him. I own rentals in the west valley of phoenix but he knows better. If I send him a Zillow screenshot he will come up with a reason why it’s not true. Those rental rates he is referencing are PRE-Covid. House prices nearly doubled in Phoenix over the last 4 years and rents have exploded too. But don’t take my word for it. Do you own research or just believe what you want :)




It’s alright. Let it go. I consider my tenants as partners without shared equity. My cost basis is practically fixed while inflation will allow the rents to rise overtime while the tenants will buy me the assets by paying them off. It’s a great deal.

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