patrick.net

It's another massive bubble... worse than the '08 one.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

But will it pop?

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It should be about 240 not 320 if you follow the trend line. This means housing would drop 25% (from 320 to 240). This aligns just with the 30 year mortgage rate rising from 3% (when peak prices were set in early 2022) to currently 6%.

Housing should be 258 if you go by a 3.5% annual appreciation from 1990 to 2024, so my trend line may be overly cautious or conservative.

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GNL says

But will it pop?

Everything seems to point as far as the Federal Reserve letting the air out slowly of the asset/housing balloon, while household income/wages catch up with housing prices, and the 30 year mortgage rate slowly gravitates to and steadies around 5.5%.

And all of this helps reduction in interest rates (10 Year Treasury well below its recent high of 5%) helps the federal guvmint borrow at lower rates, while it steadily inflates out of a debt crisis with inflation between 2 and 3%.

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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

RC2006 says

I know inflation is propping up prices but how much longer can it last for places like CA. After reading about insurance increases in CA I got a few quotes for my old house I sold. In 2020 my last insurance payment was 1150 now it's around 3k that and property tax the couple that bought my house are paying almost a thousand a month in tax and insurance. Add in car insurance and other cost of living increases and I don't see how everything is still going. Is everyone still there seeing these increases?

There was a headline in the local paper (SJ Mercury) that an income of at least $300k is needed for the cheapest "starter" home in SJ. I did not read article as it's behind a paywall.

I think what has happened is that we've become a third world country, where housing is "affordable" for only the wealthy. Maybe this is why prices haven't fallen much even with the increased insurance, local tax, mortgage rates. Because we've gone past the transition to third-world status.

This is how Socialism/Communism is born. Make most of the population unable to live or own anything, and they become dependent on government and vote accordingly for the most free shit they can get their hands on.

porkchopXpress says

This is how Socialism/Communism is born. Make most of the population unable to live or own anything, and they become dependent on government and vote accordingly for the most free shit they can get their hands on.

Except none of Commie regimes were installed via elections: it was always through the barrel of a gun.

porkchopXpress says

This is how Socialism/Communism is born. Make most of the population unable to live or own anything, and they become dependent on government and vote accordingly for the most free shit they can get their hands on.

I wonder how much of the conditions are intentional in the current making of a Dollar General versus Ferrari economy , but I do hope at least the economy is not hampered on the supply side as far as provide more affordable housing

I see more multifamily housing going up in Panama City Beach and Bay County, Florida despite current interest rates and hoping housing costs stay flat at least over the next 5 years and then after local household income keeps up with housing costs

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/clash-dollar-general-versus-ferrari-economies

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But I'm seeing over the last 30 years the gentrification of Panama City Beach as far as Roll Tide crowd versus Uppity, OverEducated crowd (Walmart / Dollar Tree crowd versus Whole Foods / North Face crowd)

Less and less trailer parks on Panama City Beach with most the concentration on Joan Avenue leading to local fixture and bike week headquarters (Newbys)

As South Walton (Watercolor to Rosemary Beach) overfills with the deep-pocketed tourists all the way from Naperville, Illinois and Red Bank, New Jersey, that just results in an overflow to next door Bay County, Florida (Panama City Beach) which creates more gentrification pressure

Roll Tide.
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The_Deplorable says

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

Most of the conditions were intentional like the Asian Tiger Moms and Smug White Liberal districts and zip codes stopping affordable housing developments in order to protect their turf especially in regards to local public school demographics and test scores.

Then there was the finanacialization of housing , treating it as a commodity or cash box such as with reverse mortgages and HELOCs which allows senior citizens to remain in housing starting at age 62 and with no motivation to sell and downgrade to a Jerry Seinfeld-style condo in Boca Raton.

Combine with developers having no incentive to build 1500 square foot, single family detached homes.

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AD says

Combine with developers having no incentive to build 1500 square foot, single family detached homes.

Why don't developers this size home any more? Are they not profitable?

gabbar says

AD says

Combine with developers having no incentive to build 1500 square foot, single family detached homes.

Why don't developers this size home any more? Are they not profitable?

I guess the county sets restrictions on minimum square footage per lot, and because of the building code requirements and various fixed costs like developer permit fees, impact fees, etc., it is not economically beneficial to build less than 2300 square feet.

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Interesting story heard today about two dumbasses who brought STRs in Maui. One a local who brought 3-4 STRs, marketed as STRs, who is complaining that he never knew, and neither the Realtors nor Local Gov officials he questioned ever informed him, that most of them were in proposed STR ban area.

So the dumbass never considered "Can I make money or at least have the properties break even if I have to convert these to year-lease rentals?" and now that Maui has gone ahead with the proposal, he will probably lose all his properties.

The next one is just another "Fake Rich" story. Apparently some guy in Arizona brought an STR in Maui that he could ONLY afford to use if he rented it Short term 9 months of the year. And he again fell into this proposed area. This one also made me laugh because if you have to depend on AirBNB short terms to make owning a "2nd Home/Vacation Property" do-able, that is, you NEED that 9 months of Short Term constant turnover just to pay for the property, you're not really an investor and quite a dumbass: Wouldn't it be better to simply rent yourself than be utterly dependent on renting it out 9 months of the year just to keep above water on it?

Florida Inventory is now well above pre-pandemic levels. I stand my prediction that 2 quarters after the Fed Rate cut this month, prices will have started to drop substantially.

I will try to dig up a Median LIST (not Sold) Price chart for Florida (whole state, not by city/region).

AmericanKulak says

So the dumbass never considered "Can I make money or at least have the properties break even if I have to convert these to year-lease rentals?" and now that Maui has gone ahead with the proposal, he will probably lose all his properties.

Sounds like my former boss. Only in Chicago. I told him is was a stupid idea. It's fucking Chicago. They were already regulating it at the time too. I told him do you trust these dip shits in charge? They will make it harder to do or tax your already low margins.

Everyone is always optimistic on paper. I'll have the place rented 350 days of the year. I'm pessimistic. I assume the worst. Hence why I got out of real estate, at least residential. I won't touch residential rentals ever again unless I live in it 6 months of the year. In IL if you rent 9 out of 10 times you're usually a deadbeat. Not saying all rentals nationwide. Just around me.