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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   590,813 views  5,354 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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5345   porkchopXpress   2024 Sep 14, 2:48pm  

This is how Socialism/Communism is born. Make most of the population unable to live or own anything, and they become dependent on government and vote accordingly for the most free shit they can get their hands on.
5346   RWSGFY   2024 Sep 14, 2:56pm  

porkchopXpress says

This is how Socialism/Communism is born. Make most of the population unable to live or own anything, and they become dependent on government and vote accordingly for the most free shit they can get their hands on.


Except none of Commie regimes were installed via elections: it was always through the barrel of a gun.
5347   AD   2024 Sep 15, 9:51am  

porkchopXpress says


This is how Socialism/Communism is born. Make most of the population unable to live or own anything, and they become dependent on government and vote accordingly for the most free shit they can get their hands on.


I wonder how much of the conditions are intentional in the current making of a Dollar General versus Ferrari economy , but I do hope at least the economy is not hampered on the supply side as far as provide more affordable housing

I see more multifamily housing going up in Panama City Beach and Bay County, Florida despite current interest rates and hoping housing costs stay flat at least over the next 5 years and then after local household income keeps up with housing costs

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/clash-dollar-general-versus-ferrari-economies

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5348   AD   2024 Sep 15, 10:03am  

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But I'm seeing over the last 30 years the gentrification of Panama City Beach as far as Roll Tide crowd versus Uppity, OverEducated crowd (Walmart / Dollar Tree crowd versus Whole Foods / North Face crowd)

Less and less trailer parks on Panama City Beach with most the concentration on Joan Avenue leading to local fixture and bike week headquarters (Newbys)

As South Walton (Watercolor to Rosemary Beach) overfills with the deep-pocketed tourists all the way from Naperville, Illinois and Red Bank, New Jersey, that just results in an overflow to next door Bay County, Florida (Panama City Beach) which creates more gentrification pressure

Roll Tide.
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5349   AD   2024 Sep 15, 10:08am  

The_Deplorable says




https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA


Most of the conditions were intentional like the Asian Tiger Moms and Smug White Liberal districts and zip codes stopping affordable housing developments in order to protect their turf especially in regards to local public school demographics and test scores.

Then there was the finanacialization of housing , treating it as a commodity or cash box such as with reverse mortgages and HELOCs which allows senior citizens to remain in housing starting at age 62 and with no motivation to sell and downgrade to a Jerry Seinfeld-style condo in Boca Raton.

Combine with developers having no incentive to build 1500 square foot, single family detached homes.

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5350   gabbar   2024 Sep 15, 3:33pm  

AD says

Combine with developers having no incentive to build 1500 square foot, single family detached homes.

Why don't developers this size home any more? Are they not profitable?
5351   AD   2024 Sep 15, 10:54pm  

gabbar says

AD says

Combine with developers having no incentive to build 1500 square foot, single family detached homes.

Why don't developers this size home any more? Are they not profitable?


I guess the county sets restrictions on minimum square footage per lot, and because of the building code requirements and various fixed costs like developer permit fees, impact fees, etc., it is not economically beneficial to build less than 2300 square feet.

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5352   AmericanKulak   2024 Sep 16, 12:03am  

Interesting story heard today about two dumbasses who brought STRs in Maui. One a local who brought 3-4 STRs, marketed as STRs, who is complaining that he never knew, and neither the Realtors nor Local Gov officials he questioned ever informed him, that most of them were in proposed STR ban area.

So the dumbass never considered "Can I make money or at least have the properties break even if I have to convert these to year-lease rentals?" and now that Maui has gone ahead with the proposal, he will probably lose all his properties.

The next one is just another "Fake Rich" story. Apparently some guy in Arizona brought an STR in Maui that he could ONLY afford to use if he rented it Short term 9 months of the year. And he again fell into this proposed area. This one also made me laugh because if you have to depend on AirBNB short terms to make owning a "2nd Home/Vacation Property" do-able, that is, you NEED that 9 months of Short Term constant turnover just to pay for the property, you're not really an investor and quite a dumbass: Wouldn't it be better to simply rent yourself than be utterly dependent on renting it out 9 months of the year just to keep above water on it?
5353   AmericanKulak   2024 Sep 16, 12:05am  

Florida Inventory is now well above pre-pandemic levels. I stand my prediction that 2 quarters after the Fed Rate cut this month, prices will have started to drop substantially.

I will try to dig up a Median LIST (not Sold) Price chart for Florida (whole state, not by city/region).
5354   WookieMan   2024 Sep 16, 2:57am  

AmericanKulak says

So the dumbass never considered "Can I make money or at least have the properties break even if I have to convert these to year-lease rentals?" and now that Maui has gone ahead with the proposal, he will probably lose all his properties.

Sounds like my former boss. Only in Chicago. I told him is was a stupid idea. It's fucking Chicago. They were already regulating it at the time too. I told him do you trust these dip shits in charge? They will make it harder to do or tax your already low margins.

Everyone is always optimistic on paper. I'll have the place rented 350 days of the year. I'm pessimistic. I assume the worst. Hence why I got out of real estate, at least residential. I won't touch residential rentals ever again unless I live in it 6 months of the year. In IL if you rent 9 out of 10 times you're usually a deadbeat. Not saying all rentals nationwide. Just around me.

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