patrick.net

AD says

WookieMan says

If it "comes from the sky" it's home owners insurance and if it "comes from the ground" it's a flood.

yeah, in Florida, you have to show water damage was from rain coming down and throw the damage house structure like roof and windows, and not from the water level rising and flooding your home such as from a storm water retention pond in your backyard or from a flooded street

I get the point, but if a retention pond overflows that's rain. Either way, buy/build where you're on the high ground, as much as you can. Hard in FL. We bought the two highest lots topographically in our subdivision. It would take over 20" of water to flood our land.

Like I said. Dealt with a flood as a teenager. My dad was an ass hole and I had to rehab the basement up to 4' while he was golfing. So I take flooding pretty seriously and will pre-plan and engineer for flooding protection on the build. I've mentioned it before, but hope to hold 2-4k gallons in underground tanks from roof run off. Pool will get some. Nat Gas generator to run the house and sump pumps to flood my neighbors on lower ground... lol.

Tornados I fear the the most, but for whatever reason they stay to the south of us. Not sure if it has to do with Lake Michigan messing with weather. There was one northwest of us that was weird. I think that was an F3 or 4.

Over 5000 Ford Trucks from 2023 remain unsold in the USA as we enter 2025. Nobody in their target market is remotely considering paying what Ford wants ($70k+) for the F-150 and Bronco Raptors.

Nissan cutting 9000 jobs (global).

Stellantis earnings will be a blood bath. Rubicons piling up and the rest of the vehicle lineup, or, like Ford, ludicrously overpriced Trucks.

Volkswagon, which avoids lay offs like crazy, is shutting multiple plants, laying off thousands, and cutting wages in a massive shock move.

The dealers don't want the trade ins, but the under-pressure buyers won't buy without a good deal on a trade in. Used cars don't move because there are no 3-4% dealer incentives on Used, only New. 11.3% is the average used car loan rate now.

How did car companies overproduce expensive vehicles no one wants? Probably misreading the market with all the cash handouts Xiden did.

I mention this because Cars and Housing are two big expenses.

AmericanKulak says

Used cars don't move because there are no 3-4% dealer incentives on Used, only New. 11.3% is the average used car loan rate now.

Where in the fuck do you buy a car with that interest rate? Even used. That's a 590 credit score if getting a loan. Have never been over 8% in my lifetime and always buy used. That's just shitty credit. I have current collections (medical) and my score is still 700.

AmericanKulak says

How did car companies overproduce expensive vehicles no one wants? Probably misreading the market

Just like the housing market, the automakers will always satisfy the most profitable portion of the marketplace first during a time of shortage. Now that shortages are over, in theory, you should see more affordable new car options become available. But auto manufacturing has a long lead time, so it's going to take a while. Plus auto manufacturers have always hated their clientele that buys the lower priced vehicles, so they are in no hurry to accommodate.

The more puzzling thing is that the one thing automakers haven't done yet, that they should have done already is to bring back lower trim levels. That I think is something that they can do in a short period time.

.

https://nypost.com/2024/11/12/real-estate/floridas-crumbling-home-prices-havent-been-this-bad-since-2011/

I figure for every 1% increase in the 30 Yr mortgage rate, there should be a drop of 10% in prices. So just on that, prices should be 40% below there early 2022 levels.

Factoring in that household income has risen about 20% since early 2022, then home prices should be about 20 to 25% below early 2022 levels.

Our townhome about 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle had a peak value of around $330,000 in early 2022. So it should be around $264,000.

We bought it for around $187,000 in 2016, so it would appreciate 4.25% annually to around $264,000.

Everything "returns to the mean" when figuring home prices historically increase about 4% a year.

.

WookieMan says

Where in the fuck do you buy a car with that interest rate? Even used. That's a 590 credit score if getting a loan. Have never been over 8% in my lifetime and always buy used. That's just shitty credit. I have current collections (medical) and my score is still 700.

Wild, right?

This is several months out of date, but they list the average rate for a used for Prime (~680) credit as 9.3%

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/auto-loans/average-car-loan-interest-rates-by-credit-score

Shouldn't be a shock. Rate Hawks are demanding a higher ROI despite the Fed Cuts because they don't think inflation is whipped.

Again, when you look at leases and the financing for new vehicles, buying used at the outrageous prices they're asking is absurd. It used to be 100 miles off the lot and a third of the value was gone. Because of COVID and exporting low mileage used vehicles abroad, now 50k mileage, 5 year old vehicles have an ask of only 30-40% below (today's!) new.

Another one.


It's the same chart, but still out of date:


https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/average-car-loan-interest-rates-by-credit-score/

Imagine paying over $500mo. for a used car that isn't a collectible or a super high end or specialty vehicle.

If you figure the mean credit score (think Single Moms and Millennial hoebags with massive college and Ulta Beauty credit cards) is about 640-650, 11% sounds right.

The Car Market is going to be wild.

Fortunately my lease isn't up until March. I think I might just get another lease on a lower end vehicle since I don't want to be a bagholder in case the prices don't really collapse until next summer or beyond.

AmericanKulak says

https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/average-car-loan-interest-rates-by-credit-score/

Imagine paying over $500mo. for a used car that isn't a collectible or a super high end or specialty vehicle.

My wife and I got lucky in 2021 with a Honda CRV from Panama City Toyota at a 1.5% rate for 6 years, though it was tough to negotiate as they only knocked down the MSRP price by $500 and they threw in a few extras like mats. Our monthly payment is around $450.

Never seen a car dealership that busy as we had to wait to see a sales rep.