patrick.net

The RTO clampdown is accelerating so all these folks who moved into (formerly) inexpensive areas to spend their big city bucks are in for an awakening. I'm already being bombarded by "price lowered" alerts in Tahoe area where yons of Goolag and Fuckbook peeps moved during scamdemic. (The Tahoe area is inexpensive only relatively to the Bay Area, of course, but still.)

RWSGFY says

The RTO clampdown is accelerating

THE ATTEMPT TO ENFORCE RTO is accelerating. All to save commercial real estate sunk costs. But the reality is different.

Firms that do not pay much for office space because they have WFH vs those that do have a competitive advantage. FB, Apple, Microsoft and Google have massive sunk costs in buildings. But they have near monopoly control of their markets but those markets or monopolies won't last forever. FB is all old ppl now. GenX or older.

Other firms don't enjoy that.

And the high value employees almost always get WFH privileges no matter what. Because when they don't, they go work where that is the case.

That in turn causes problems with the hoi polloi workers "How come 300 IQ Han gets to WFH but I don't? It's because I am a trans POC, right?"

Of course right now, mgmt probably wants a lot of these hires to quit anyway.

AmericanKulak says

Job Relocation, Divorce, Job Loss, Health & Death, and Retirement...

Job relocation isn't a big one. Most people aren't married anymore and one usually keeps the house anyway. Job loss you're an idiot if you can't find a new one. I can't work full time and get dozens of offers a month. Death the kids take over the estate and see all these real estate guru's and rent it out.

Retirement is probably the biggest, but Boomers with a brain have already done what they need to. They're either wealthy and can keep the big house or were empty nesters in the 2010's and downsized already. That played into the housing crash besides shit loans. Boomers are my parents friends, none of them are moving. My mom is but she has a unique property that isn't your average home or land.

I've said I'm the anecdotal guy. I see no Uhauls on the road. No moving trucks here in IL. New houses are being built. Prices can look like a bubble, but if the loans are solid I don't see a problem. I think it's more movement of people fleeing shit states with shit policies at this point. Everyone that left IL already did. Uhaul is stacked here. So little to no out of state movement.

I think CA and the Northeast are going to bring the national median down with their high home prices. It won't be a crash though nationwide like last time. It will look bad on paper, but likely only two regions. And that might not even happen for a while.

WookieMan says

one usually keeps the house anyway.

It's more typical that the house is ordered sold and the equity split.

You're looking at this as an R/E investor and not as Joe Average, for whom the home is the biggest "asset" he's ever had.

The Demographic Crunch is coming and is unavoidable. IL has been experiencing net migration and population loss for years and years now; and the huge influx of migrants and illegals still results in a net loss.

It's never been a worse time to buy.

BTW, massive rental collapse in Florida.

I'm starting to see 2+ beds under $2000 and even some old 3+ beds out for rental. You could barely find Studios or 1 beds. This is on the Beach.

Under $2000 in Palm Bay now, brimming with 90s houses (not townhouse, not apts) under $2000. 6 months ago there was nothing.

Thinking about it as I'm outgrowing my little Condo with kids growing up and mom (78) needing to move in shortly.

EDIT: And this is December, the WORST time to look for rentals.

AmericanKulak says

The Demographic Crunch is coming and is unavoidable. IL has been experiencing net migration and population loss for years and years now; and the huge influx of migrants and illegals still results in a net loss.

Not anymore. Given rates we're building pretty strong here. Not biased either. There's no homes for sale here. FL is a different story with different parts. People are moving out of Chicago now but still staying in state. FL probably has an overbuilding problem of houses, condos and apartments.

NY, CA have IL type exodus problems. We've for sure stabilized now though. Won't grow by any means, maybe still lose a little, but not a lot. If IL hit level 10, NY & CA are level 3-4 right now on the way to 10. That will decimate the national median which is the stat used to scare people and get clicks for media with no context to the story.

FL I think it's just tap the brakes on building for a year or two (mostly) and let demand catch up with inventory to level it out. You guys have had the influx of people that can actually retire already and likely overbuilt. Your average boomer is high 60-70 age wise. Past higher end SS collection age and 59-1/2 for IRA/401k with no penalty. Basically if you were 60 you should have retired and if you wanted a condo in FL already did it a decade ago. So they built to demand and it's drying up because everyone did it.

Time flies when you're having fun. Boomers that can't retire won't and will stay put. Those that can already did. We're a decade past that timeline. There's no mass movement of geezers. Or they stay put because they can afford to or can't because they're broke. We've crossed the Boomer moving threshold is my point. It's over.