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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   483,862 views  4,879 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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741   Blue   2022 Sep 5, 11:03am  

Based on calling races, BOA is part of the direct political campaign for left. Statistically zero applicants qualify with empty pockets unless crazy Biden and state throwing cash at them under so many programs like housekeys.org etc. The more I look, this country is turning into the h* I left.
745   BayArea   2022 Sep 6, 7:53am  

zzyzzx says




What’s the source?
746   Patrick   2022 Sep 6, 2:56pm  

https://thepricklypear.org/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-august-update-first-price-drops-appear-all-in-the-west/


The Case-Shiller index, which lags reality on the ground by 4-6 months, is starting to pick up the price drops in Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles, Denver, and Portland.
747   WookieMan   2022 Sep 6, 3:04pm  

BayArea says

What’s the source?

Source matters, but it's more about home ownership percentage for this stat. If people that can afford to buy are buying and can afford the mortgage, it's really not a big deal. If you cannot afford a price, you won't get a loan. I don't see 2006 happening. We're not back into the "if you have a pulse here's a loan" mode.

Something is happening, but not with housing in my opinion. It will influence housing, but not as dramatic. I personally cannot speculate what IT is though. No one is working or wants to work and employment numbers are still relatively decent and inflation doesn't happen without lots of money flowing around. It's strange.
749   Eman   2022 Sep 6, 10:00pm  

GNL says


Eman says


ZipperTits says


Eman says


Can you share the link(s) where the bank called the loan due on Blackrock and Zillow?


Can you learn to read first?



Nah…, you keep speculating. Zillow started to liquidate their “flip” real estate portfolio late last year when 30-year fixed mortgage was sub 3%. Real estate prices didn’t collapse late last year for any bank/lender to call the loans due. That’s fine. Keep believing what you want to believe.


Maybe it's because they forecast higher rates were on the way?



Not according to my knowledge. J Powell was still pitching “inflation is transitory” late last year. Interest rates didn’t tick up until April of this year. I was in the midst of refinance a couple buildings in January. We locked 3.15% in January, but didn’t close until April. By then, rates were in the 4%ish….

We were also in the midst of flipping this property. Due to the higher interest rate, we feel the offers came in a little lighter than expected. Paid $1.075M. Sold for $1.75M. It should have hit the market in March if it wasn’t due to permit delay.

https://redf.in/H28A6Z
751   Ceffer   2022 Sep 7, 9:06am  

Mise fiat equities are gefuckt!
752   Booger   2022 Sep 7, 9:09am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/us-bonds-treasury-yields-in-focus-amid-economic-data-auctions.html

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit a daily high of 3.353%, adding roughly 16 basis points before settling around 3.347% for its highest close since mid-June. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond gained more than 14 basis points to 3.493%, hitting its highest close since 2014.
755   Booger   2022 Sep 8, 8:50am  

Check out these price cuts:

757   Eric Holder   2022 Sep 8, 1:04pm  

Booger says

Check out these price cuts:




From $6M sold in 2018 to $48M asking today? Pie-in-the sky bullshit asking price.
758   1337irr   2022 Sep 8, 1:06pm  

Eric Holder says

Booger says


Check out these price cuts:




From $6M sold in 2018 to $48M asking today? Pie-in-the sky bullshit asking price.

I should squat there and own it :)
759   Eric Holder   2022 Sep 8, 1:33pm  

1337irr says

Eric Holder says


Booger says



Check out these price cuts:




From $6M sold in 2018 to $48M asking today? Pie-in-the sky bullshit asking price.


I should squat there and own it :)


The upkeep would be a bitch though.
760   GNL   2022 Sep 8, 2:10pm  

Eric Holder says

Booger says


Check out these price cuts:




From $6M sold in 2018 to $48M asking today? Pie-in-the sky bullshit asking price.

It was either a 6 million dollar tear down or a vacant lot to begin with.
761   RWSGFY   2022 Sep 8, 2:46pm  

GNL says

Eric Holder says


Booger says



Check out these price cuts:




From $6M sold in 2018 to $48M asking today? Pie-in-the sky bullshit asking price.


It was either a 6 million dollar tear down or a vacant lot to begin with.


Really? Looks nice in the pics.
762   GNL   2022 Sep 8, 6:49pm  

RWSGFY says

From $6M sold in 2018 to $48M asking today? Pie-in-the sky bullshit asking price.

It was either a 6 million dollar tear down or a vacant lot to begin with.

Really? Looks nice in the pics.

The description says new construction.
766   Booger   2022 Sep 8, 7:58pm  

Open door losing money again:

767   AmericanKulak   2022 Sep 8, 8:22pm  

Booger says



Bank of Asmodeus is doing a great job recasting these with some "Equity" branding as "Loans for Minorities"
770   Eman   2022 Sep 11, 12:11am  

Booger says




Looking at the letter, it looks like the lender wants the buyer to have 25% down (max 75% LTV) plus reserves. Not sure how many months or years of reserve is require. Not a walk in the park to qualify like the old days, but definitely some loosening in lending standards. More power to both parties if they can make it work.
772   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 13, 5:56am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/xcn9zk/expenses_much_higher_than_i_expected/

Expenses much higher than I expected.

I bought my first triplex last year, and it’s fairly old (1881), so there were definitely things to go wrong and I thought I budgeted accordingly. Worst case there was a $1,200 delta between my PITI and my rent roll which I figured should suffice for any maintenance needs, and I had a $20k emergency fund.

Then I bought, and things started to get bad. In the last year I’ve had:

A hot water tank burn out

$2k of damage from a burst pipe

$5k of foundation work

$5k worth of damages from a tenant plus 2 months of vacancy

$3k of lawyer bills from the same tenant

$2k worth of exterminator work

In addition to all the standard maintenance, and my property taxes going up by 30%

I also have on the horizon:

Another hot water tank that’s on the fritz

$8k worth of electrical work

$10k more of foundation work

I’m not here to complain-I’m thankful to own the place, I’ve built up a sizable amount of equity, and I still have a decent amount of cash in an emergency fund. And since that one tenant left my tenant problems are near 0. But it would be great to get some guidance on what seems to be like a never ending stream of expenses. I’m getting to the point where my emergency fund is below what I find comfortable, and I’m already financing more items than I wanted to.

Is this normal early on? The last landlord was terrible so I was expecting plenty of deferred maintenance, but this is just ridiculous and I never expected to be this far off the mark. I’ve really only had two months in the last 12 where I was cash flow positive.

I’m young (24) and a little inexperienced, so definitely recognize the learning curve. But I’m trying to not get overwhelmed
774   HeadSet   2022 Sep 13, 7:12am  



Why would someone buy a house and then sell less than a month later for just a $9,900 gain? That would not even come close to covering the sales costs.
775   WookieMan   2022 Sep 13, 8:08am  

HeadSet says



Why would someone buy a house and then sell less than a month later for just a $9,900 gain? That would not even come close to covering the sales costs.

Money laundering? We don't know the down payment amount. I know certain amounts of cash need to be reported, but there's ways around that. Could be a corporate relocate as well. I'd likely guess that's the case. We need you here and fucked up and should have sent you elsewhere. Happened to my MIL's neighbor. Family moved in and then was shipped somewhere else 2 months later. Felt bad for the kids.
776   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2022 Sep 13, 3:52pm  

HeadSet says



Why would someone buy a house and then sell less than a month later for just a $9,900 gain? That would not even come close to covering the sales costs.


found out neighbor is gay
777   Blue   2022 Sep 14, 10:31am  

ZipperTits says

Mortgage demand from homebuyers falls 29% since last year, as interest rates surge past 6%

In other words about 2/3 looks still ok. Its time to look and lock RE if not stocks somewhere affordable across US where friends or family lives around. Once the interest rates go down, inflation affect can kick-in fast and rise the properties. RE could still go down but can not crash unless run into big recession. Chasing and picking at bottom is hard for many unless you know someone in gov, banks who knows good ones at great price.
778   GNL   2022 Sep 14, 10:42am  

Tell em @ZipperTits.
780   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 14, 10:53am  

This one is going to be on the market for a long time:

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