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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   400,304 views  4,452 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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1469   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 9, 6:49am  

https://news.yahoo.com/housing-prices-drop-across-california-225800701.html

Housing prices drop across California’s Bay Area
1471   Ceffer   2022 Dec 9, 10:01am  

Nooooooooooo! Sob, Sob!
1472   WookieMan   2022 Dec 9, 10:21am  

zzyzzx says

RH CEO: 'The housing market is collapsing'

It's not collapsing. Cities are. High end city sales are going to drag down median national prices big time. This is an exodus "crash" not a housing crash overall. The house we're planning on building in Chicago would be $2-3M. We're doing it for $500k out in the country. Better schools. No traffic. Local CSA's, butchers and other products that we don't pay a markup at Target for. Work from home or just drive.

Cities are toast. The people are younger for the party or too old and living on government income. Demographically most cities are shit. 30-50 year olds who have the money and spend it, have kids, don't want to live in cities. Defund the police. Great. Let's live in a crime filled hellhole on tiny lots, litter, piss and shit, etc. There's no reason to live in cities anymore.

You also mentally cannot live in a liberal city if you have any morals. I get some people stay because of family, but who cares? The block I lived on in Chicago we knew NOBODY. There's no community. 100+ units on the block. I have people in my town now come up to me like they know me and I'm like who the fuck is that? In a positive way. Everyone is nice outside of the occasional hill billy tool at the local bars. AKA the drunks that can't control it, but that's worse in the city and may result in a bullet wound.
1473   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 9, 10:36am  

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-supply-record-increase-homes-linger/

Housing Market Update: Supply Posts Record Increase As Homes Linger on the Market


Among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, pending sales fell the most from a year earlier in Las Vegas (-65.4%), Austin (-60.7%), Phoenix (-56.8%), Jacksonville, FL (-55.6%) and Portland, OR (-53.5%).

Months of supply—a measure of the balance between supply and demand, calculated by dividing the number of active listings by closed sales—was 3.9 months
1474   Blue   2022 Dec 9, 10:45am  

Correction is needed for good reason particularly in high price areas. For the rest, crashing is bad for good people who want to keep their roof but good for flippers who take advantage of crazy Biden inflation.
1475   Misc   2022 Dec 9, 10:51am  

Uhhhhhhh, 3.9 months of supply is crashing?????

In another era that would be booming. We're just used to having multiple offers on listing day.
1476   GNL   2022 Dec 9, 10:56am  

WookieMan says

The house we're planning on building...

It seems you've been planning on building this house for the last 2 years now. What's going on? Your wife makes over $300K? Seems you could easily have gotten it started even if you do have mortgage payments on another house.
1477   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 9, 11:12am  

Misc says

Uhhhhhhh, 3.9 months of supply is crashing?????


It's normalizing.
1478   gabbar   2022 Dec 9, 1:34pm  

"It's just a lot of uncertainty right now. But one thing I'm certain of : The housing market is collapsing at a level I haven't seen since 2008. I haven't seen this kind of drop since 2008."- Gary Friedman, CEO, Restoration Hardware, November 9, 2022
1479   Ceffer   2022 Dec 9, 1:39pm  

zzyzzx says

It's normalizing.

LOL! it's un-insane-ating.
1481   WookieMan   2022 Dec 10, 6:39am  

GNL says

WookieMan says


The house we're planning on building...

It seems you've been planning on building this house for the last 2 years now. What's going on? Your wife makes over $300K? Seems you could easily have gotten it started even if you do have mortgage payments on another house.

We optioned the lots in March this year. Working on a plan where my mom buys our current house. That way we're not carrying two loans and have the equity to throw at the build. No rush on our end either or hers. Lumber has come down in our area too, so the wait has been worth it. We're probably 30-60 days from the rubber meeting the road.

I don't care about interest rates as I know in 2-5 years they'll be back to 0 basically. We haven't seen truly "high" interest rates since the 70's.

There's also a fuck ton of planning building a custom home. There are a ton of details that most people "building" a subdivision house don't have to deal with. It's not like working with a builder doing 100 homes and you have option A or B on all items. We have the whole alphabet in front of us because it's our choice on everything. We are picking all finishes. No builder grade cheap shit.

I'm also going to part time GC the job. Builder is cool with it and makes it cheaper on our end. I'm a planner though. I don't like problems. Anything I can do to eliminate them is the goal.
1482   porkchopXpress   2022 Dec 10, 7:08am  

Blue says

Yes, tax amount get rest at next purchase price. CA 1978 prop 13 is a Ponzi scheme. Not only outside the CA but too many insiders are not aware of this crap until you get into the trap. Like any Ponzi scheme, the longer you stay your tax rate goes south even though you receive gov service like everyone else. Since property tax rate is effectively the lowest for many in the country, CA has to push every tax rate to the roof to compensate the difference. This topic really upset the people who pay none to nothing tax to their multi million dollar shacks while they enjoy the gains.

Yep. My biggest investment mistake was not being born 10 years earlier.
1483   Eman   2022 Dec 10, 11:29am  

porkchopexpress says

Blue says


Yes, tax amount get rest at next purchase price. CA 1978 prop 13 is a Ponzi scheme. Not only outside the CA but too many insiders are not aware of this crap until you get into the trap. Like any Ponzi scheme, the longer you stay your tax rate goes south even though you receive gov service like everyone else. Since property tax rate is effectively the lowest for many in the country, CA has to push every tax rate to the roof to compensate the difference. This topic really upset the people who pay none to nothing tax to their multi million dollar shacks while they enjoy the gains.

Yep. My biggest investment mistake was not being born 10 years earlier.

You don’t want to be born 10 years earlier. People pay a lot of money to be 10 years younger. I know a 68-year old gentleman who is willing to give all his money ($60M net worth) to be 18 again. If you can enjoy life at a younger age, take it. Money can’t buy your youth back.
1484   WookieMan   2022 Dec 10, 1:54pm  

Eman says

You don’t want to be born 10 years earlier. People pay a lot of money to be 10 years younger. I know a 68-year old gentleman who is willing to give all his money ($60M net worth) to be 18 again. If you can enjoy life at a younger age, take it. Money can’t buy your youth back.

Yup. Live life once. Money helps. Enjoy it though. Even if that means being reckless or risky at times. I'll be in the Bahamas, Dominican, AZ and MT in January. Should I? Probably not if you're listening to Dave Ramsey. Fucking live life guys.

The part people don't get. You don't HAVE to pay it. AND you can't take it with you. Until you realize those two truths, you're living a life of misery. Enjoy.
1485   AmericanKulak   2022 Dec 10, 2:02pm  

If it floats, flies, or fucks, lease it. The cost of ownership is too damned high.
1486   AmericanKulak   2022 Dec 10, 2:05pm  

DD214 says


Lennar offers 5,000 homes to investors with buyer demand sliding

https://unitedbrokersinc.net/2022/12/09/lennar-offers-5000-homes-to-investors-with-buyer-demand-sliding/

It's a stupid time to buy a house.

Prices are only gonna drop.

You're tired of me saying this, but there is a massive demographic shift. For 40 years, boomers powered house buying. Few people in their 60s are looking for 4 bed, 2.5 baths in the burbs. Foreign buyers looking for Pied-a-tierres aren't interested in moving to lower-middle class suburbs of Pittsburgh, Atlanta, or Dallas.

Alot of these 60 somethings are hoping that prices stay high. They won't. And those in their 60s can hardly bitch, having lived through low interest rates for half their lives, multiple decades.

I mean American burbs around the nation, not just SFBA.
1487   HeadSet   2022 Dec 10, 3:26pm  

cisTits says

AmericanKulak says


If it floats, flies, or fucks, lease it. The cost of ownership is too damned high.


That should be tattooed on every dude's prick (as painlessly as possible).

Some need it branded.
1488   HeadSet   2022 Dec 10, 3:30pm  

cisTits says

This demographic data and its effects have only been known....since, oh the late 1960s, early 1970s.

True, but maybe not expecting or factoring in the unlimited illegal immigration.
1489   richwicks   2022 Dec 10, 3:39pm  

Eman says

I know a 68-year old gentleman who is willing to give all his money ($60M net worth) to be 18 again.


Tell him to retire and start working out a bit.
1490   Blue   2022 Dec 10, 3:55pm  

HeadSet says

cisTits says


This demographic data and its effects have only been known....since, oh the late 1960s, early 1970s.

True, but maybe not expecting or factoring in the unlimited illegal immigration.

Also not factoring crazy Biden printing press and out of control inflation.
1491   AD   2022 Dec 10, 9:54pm  

Gary Friedman, who leads RH, formerly known as Restoration Hardware, told investors during the company's third quarter earnings call on Thursday that "the housing market is in freefall" and thinks the US housing market is on the brink of collapse similar to what happened in 2008.

He points to low homebuyer demand and the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes to tame inflation for the market decline.

"The housing market has collapsed, and it's gone down pretty viciously as interest rates went up," Friedman said during the call. "I haven't seen this kind of drop since 2008."

https://www.businessinsider.com/rh-ceo-says-the-housing-market-collapsing-at-2008-levels-2022-12

.
1492   AD   2022 Dec 10, 10:23pm  

HeadSet says

True, but maybe not expecting or factoring in the unlimited illegal immigration.


From what I've seen, it is not uncommon for illegal immigrants to over crowd housing. For example, I remember in Manassas Park where 3 families lived in a home designed for 1 family.
1493   Eman   2022 Dec 11, 1:12am  

When my family came to this country, we stayed at my uncle’s house for a year to save money before we could move out. My uncle has 6 kids plus 6 of us so 14 persons in a 4/2.5 house. Our family got 1 room. My parents and little brother slept on the bed. Three of us slept on the carpet floor. That was heaven to me. In my country, I slept on concrete/tile floor so it was a nice cushy step up.

We all turned out okay. All of us own a house in the Silicon Valley. From that perspective, I don’t have issues with people crowding their own house. This country is truly the land of opportunity.
1494   DD214   2022 Dec 11, 4:40am  

Here's Where You May Want to Move in 2023

“Florida markets dominated the annual appreciation leaderboard in 2022, with Tennessee, the Carolinas and Texas metro areas peppering into the top spots among the 100 largest metros.”

That won’t all go away, Zillow said. “The heat will stay on in the Sunshine State, to be sure,” it said.

“But as affordability has become the key driver of both supply and demand in the market, places that still feature reasonable prices are already seeing momentum shift their way, and should have the healthiest housing markets in 2023,” according to Zillow.

That means the Midwest. “Unlike nearly every other region in the U.S., prices in most Midwest metro areas haven’t run up to extremes,” Zillow said.

Affordability isn’t the only issue. “Having available houses to choose from is another key component of a healthy market, and the Midwest stands out,”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/zillow-here-s-where-you-may-want-to-move-in-2023/ar-AA158aSu
1495   porkchopXpress   2022 Dec 11, 6:39am  

Eman says

When my family came to this country, we stayed at my uncle’s house for a year to save money before we could move out. My uncle has 6 kids plus 6 of us so 14 persons in a 4/2.5 house. Our family got 1 room. My parents and little brother slept on the bed. Three of us slept on the carpet floor. That was heaven to me. In my country, I slept on concrete/tile floor so it was a nice cushy step up.

We all turned out okay. All of us own a house in the Silicon Valley. From that perspective, I don’t have issues with people crowding their own house. This country is truly the land of opportunity.
Great story, brotha. People don't realize the opportunity we have in this country compared to everywhere else.
1496   gabbar   2022 Dec 11, 1:22pm  

ad says

For example, I remember in Manassas Park where 3 families lived in a home designed for 1 family.

You mean 1 American family.
1497   gabbar   2022 Dec 11, 3:38pm  

How Shady Real Estate Agents Cheat

KATE SWANSONAUG 24, 2022

Kate Swanson has been a property investor for the last 20 years and has moved houses (and continents) several times herself in that time.

There are plenty of good, honest real estate agents. But every industry has its share of shonky practitioners.

Mostly Good, Some Bad

I've had many complaints from realtors about this article! They claim that all realtors are Honest Johns and have their customers' best interests at heart.

Let me make this clear: this is not an attack on the real estate industry.

There are plenty of good, honest real estate agents. But every industry has its share of shonky practitioners—unfortunately, that's just human nature. Take any large group of people, and you'll find a percentage who are prepared to twist the rules to their own advantage. And as we all know, the most fresh-faced, charming people can also be the most crooked, so we can't assume the nice ones are really the nice ones!

For most people, their home is the single biggest investment they'll ever make in their lives, so it's worth being aware of the tricks the unprincipled can get up to.

Realtors can make more money selling several houses cheap, than one house at the best price.

Why Shady Realtors Want to Sell Cheap

At the root of the problem is one huge misconception: that you and the realtor have the same goal in mind, which is to sell your property for the maximum price possible. That's simply not true. You want to sell at the highest possible price. The realtor just wants to sell.

You may be wondering, why on earth would a realtor not want the best price? After all, their commission is based on the selling price, so the higher the price, the more their commission.

The answer is simple: speed. If they hold out for the highest price the market can bear, that means more advertisements and more inspections. True, they will get less commission if the price is lower, but they will also have spent much less time and will be able to move on to the next house much faster.

They can sell six under-priced houses in the same time it takes to sell three full-priced houses, and the result will be more commission!

Of course, legally, the realtor has to agree on a figure with you and stick to it: they can't sell the property if you don't agree with the price. But the shady realtor has ways they can work on you, the seller, to persuade you to accept a lower price in the end.

How a Shady Realtor Reduces Your Sell Price

When the realtor comes to see your house, they point out all the good features of your property and names an impressive price.

Once you've signed up, the agent starts showing possible buyers through your home. After every inspection, they call to tell you how it went. To your surprise, they tell you they're disappointed to be getting negative feedback (which, strangely, they either never mentioned—or dismissed as unimportant—on their first visit!).

The first week, they may say some buyers didn't like the décor and would have to repaint the whole house. The second week, they'll mention buyers who felt the kitchen would need replacing. The third week, it might be a worn carpet or a damaged piece of guttering. Alternatively, they might claim they're getting constant comments on one single major flaw, such as the lack of sunlight in the living room or the deck that needs replacing.

They may also say buyers have said what they might pay, e.g., "I'm getting some interest in the low three hundreds", which means people have said they might pay $300,000 to $350,000 for the house. Whatever the range is, it's always substantially under the figure they first quoted. If you express concern, they'll say, "well, you have to bear in mind, they didn't like . . . "(whatever the latest flaw was).

You may have guessed by now that the buyers probably said nothing of the sort, or if they did, it was a casual comment. They're making it up to create doubt in your mind, to undermine your confidence in that impressive price they originally quoted. Week by week, they drip-feed you negative feedback on the property, aiming to lower your expectations. Meanwhile, they're also working on the buyers . . .

Keep an eye out for agents who have a less than ideal moral compass.

"Hooking" the Buyer

It's illegal to quote a price the seller hasn't agreed to—but if the agent is having a private conversation with a potential buyer, and there are no witnesses, it's the agent's word against theirs—so you can't prove anything, and will probably never know anyway.

If your property is for sale at a fixed price, during the inspections, the realtor will be telling buyers you're "very negotiable" (whether you are or not). If your property is up for auction, the agent will be privately naming a price range that's well below what you're hoping to get.

I've caught more than one agent doing this because I love viewing property, so when an acquaintance puts a house up for sale, I just have to go and look. Once, it was an apartment selling for $380,000. I got talking to the agent, and he told me, "If you're interested, I'm sure they'd take an offer of $340,000".

The next time I met my friend, I asked them how it was going. "Not good," she said glumly. "The agent is telling me they're only getting interest in the low $300s. He originally told us we'd easily get over $375,000, so we're really disappointed."

Of course, he's only getting interest in the low $300s if that's what he's telling buyers it's worth!

If you catch your agent out doing this, they'll tell you, "we quote a low price to hook the buyers' interest, then we can negotiate them up from there". I don't know why anyone ever believes this!

Did this house sell for the price promised?

Clinching the Deal

Eventually, you will get an offer for the house, or auction day will arrive, and someone will bid.

Thanks to the agent, it's quite likely the offer or bid will be lower than you expect. When they present it to you, you're quite likely to say so, to which the agent will reply, "oh yes, but do bear in mind that buyers have all been put off by the lack of sunlight (or whatever the problem was)". They'll tell you how you can never be sure what a property is worth upfront, but now it's been "tested in the marketplace".

This is all utter tosh. The property hasn't been "tested in the marketplace" at its true value because the agent has been telling everyone it's worth less than it really is!

I've had several comments from realtors saying, "I'm sorry you had a bad experience", and assuring me how wonderful most real estate agents are. So I should clarify that this article isn't based on one bad experience.

I do not deny there are good real estate agents out there. But if you embark on selling your home imagining that all agents are angels, you're an idiot!

© 2008 Kate Swanson
1501   RWSGFY   2022 Dec 12, 2:11pm  

These days, a luxury high-rise in downtown San Francisco with units that appear to be mostly empty isn’t an uncommon sight. As a cooling real estate market continues to impact the city, downtown condos might be some of the hardest-hit properties around.

Patrick Carlisle, Compass’ chief market analyst, said that while economic headwinds are affecting real estate markets everywhere, downtown San Francisco’s condo market has been hit especially hard.

“That market has been hit hardest in the city,” Carlisle told SFGATE. This is due to a few different factors, he said, one being the mass abandonment of downtown office spaces since the start of the pandemic.

“San Francisco went from probably being the hottest office market in the country to being about the weakest,” Carlisle said. “High-tech workers were the ones who were most likely to say, ‘Well, I can work from any place. I’ll move someplace where housing costs 90% less.’”

Speaking of tech workers, Carlisle said the uncertainty brought on by mass tech layoffs has also affected property sales downtown. He added that an increase in homelessness and crime in downtown areas has affected the “quality-of-life ambiance” for people in those areas, presumably buyers who are reluctant to live among the city’s unhoused populations.

...
According to a recent report from Compass, the median sales price of a two-bedroom condo in downtown areas has dropped by 16% since 2021, compared to a 7% drop in the price of two-bedroom condos outside of that area. The report also states that condo inventory in this area is more than twice as high as the rest of the city — which explains the seemingly empty high-rises looming everywhere downtown.

In October, one 45-story luxury high-rise made news after it was revealed that only 13 of its 146 units had been purchased in the two years they’d been up for sale.

...


https://www.sfgate.com/local/article/downtown-sf-condo-market-struggling-17643941.php?IPID=SFGate-HP-CP-Spotlight
1502   gabbar   2022 Dec 12, 4:22pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-06/millions-of-us-millennials-moved-in-with-their-parents-this-year

Millions of US Millennials Moved in With Their Parents This Year





Living with parents/family members is considered normal and positive in many cultures/countries.
1504   GNL   2022 Dec 14, 5:14am  

gabbar says



In defense of agent's, what exactly do you want them to do? An agent puts a lot of time, effort and $$ into getting to the point of agreements let alone the amount of $$ they put into a listing. However, I do think there is an argument to be made that the industry is a monopoly. The fact that a Realtor must post all listings to an MLS is where, imo, the control is made most effective. You can sell real estate without being a Realtor.
1506   ForcedTQ   2022 Dec 14, 11:29am  

To above post, not in California.....
1507   GNL   2022 Dec 14, 11:31am  

zzyzzx says



Where/when do tax valuations change simply by refinancing?
1508   WookieMan   2022 Dec 14, 12:44pm  

cisTits says

GNL says


Where/when do tax valuations change simply by refinancing?


One good thing about California is that doesn't happen.

Still, I don't get the relationship between the two lines in that meme either.

It doesn't. Not with a refi. Purchase will though. Bought my house for $85k it's worth $300k now and refi'd twice. Property taxes went up $300 annually since we've bought. We're IL unicorns at $3,200 in taxes annually.

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