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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   75,615 views  1,843 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.



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1469   ad   2022 Nov 21, 7:48pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Sounds like a haolie to me, bro.


Ask those Indians if they consider themselves the same type of Asian as the Chinese. Ask them what they think of the Chicoms.

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1470   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Nov 21, 8:08pm  

ad says


Ask those Indians if they consider themselves the same type of Asian as the Chinese. Ask them what they think of the Chicoms.

Dude, I retired recently. The only time I see those folks nowadays is when I go to their enclave communities to walk about the city. The Indian enclaves are in parts of Sunnyvale and an area known as The Golden Triangle.

The Chinese enclave is Cupertino.

But even though I don't live among them, I worked side by side with all those sorts of folks for decades. I even had a boss who was an H1. Since I was in hardware, there were also Chinese H1's and green carders (if I was in software or IT, well that'd just be the Indians). Most of the departments I worked in had about 40% Indian, 40% Chinese, 20% everyone else. Even worked with a haolie Colombian expat H1 who married his green card.

Chinese and Indians mostly were civil to each other in meetings and collaborations. Of course, they would mostly hire their own kind. But, civil with each other.

BTW, if you only ever lived in what became Silicon Valley, and spent decades in engineering departments in the tech world, you would probably be able to differentiate what you call a Chicom and a Taiwanese. I can't put my finger on it exactly, but I am sure someone who actually lived here and knew wtf they were talking about, would understand my point.
1471   ad   2022 Nov 21, 8:35pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says


BTW, if you only ever lived in what became Silicon Valley, and spent decades in engineering departments in the tech world, you would probably be able to differentiate what you call a Chicom and a Taiwanese. I can't put my finger on it exactly, but I am sure someone who actually lived here and knew wtf they were talking about, would understand my point.


Don't care to know about that shithole. I'm happy to work in better places like Braintree and Quincy, Massachusetts and Reston, Virginia.

Sounds like a tribal culture as far as what you describe (i.e., "Chinese enclave is Cupertino" and "mostly hire their own kind"). Yeah I am sure it was all California-style Kumbaya (i.e., "civil with each other"). Enjoy your white liberal shithole paradise.
1472   Misc   2022 Nov 21, 11:43pm  

Nothing that a few more million illegals can't cure.
1473   Booger   2022 Nov 22, 3:48am  

B.A.C.A.H. says


Meta's H-1B layoffs challenge visa holders


ERECTION INTENSIFYING!!!
1474   ad   2022 Nov 22, 10:46am  

Misc says

Nothing that a few more million illegals can't cure.


It was commonplace to see in Manassas Park back in the late 1990's and the 2000's at least two families in a home designed and zoned for one family.

A lot of 3 to 4 bedroom homes became boarding houses.
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1475   ad   2022 Nov 22, 10:49am  

Booger says

Meta's H-1B layoffs challenge visa holders

ERECTION INTENSIFYING!!!


I don't see the tech companies letting go of a workforce (i.e., H1B visas) that are easy to exploit. I've worked around H1B visas and they are docile and loved by management, cause they will work +50 hours a week without any overtime or credit toward vacation time.

.

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1476   Ceffer   2022 Nov 22, 11:02am  

Esclavos.
ad says

hey will work +50 hours a week without any overtime or credit toward vacation time.
1477   cisTits   2022 Nov 22, 12:30pm  

Investor Purchases of Single-Family Houses Plunged 32% in Q3, Plummeting the Most in “Pandemic Boomtowns”

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/11/22/investor-purchases-of-single-family-houses-plunged-32-in-q3-plummeting-the-most-in-pandemic-boomtowns/
1478   Eman   2022 Nov 22, 1:20pm  

Plunged 32.3% YoY while still higher than the last housing bubble peak, and 5x more buying than the bottom. Just put things in perspective rather than a sensational headline without context. The Fed had really helped to fuel this asset bubble. 🚀🚀

1479   cisTits   2022 Nov 22, 2:05pm  

Eman says

Plunged 32.3% YoY while still higher than the last housing bubble peak, and 5x more buying than the bottom.


So what? A 32% drop is still a 32% drop. Who gives a flying fuck about 'last time'?

Are you one of the 'housing experts' who told us earlier this year that rates would not go up like they have? That housing prices would not drop as they have?
1480   ad   2022 Nov 22, 2:35pm  

Eman says

Plunged 32.3% YoY


Its got to drop to at least 10,000 housing units for housing prices to reach near the bottom.

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1481   cisTits   2022 Nov 22, 2:49pm  

ad says

Its got to drop to at least 10,000 housing units for housing prices to reach near the bottom.


And it will at this rate? What? You all think this will suddenly stop and plateau? Or even rise again.

Takes 18 months at least for a housing downturn to run its course. This is barely starting
1482   Eman   2022 Nov 22, 3:14pm  

cisTits says

Eman says


Plunged 32.3% YoY while still higher than the last housing bubble peak, and 5x more buying than the bottom.


So what? A 32% drop is still a 32% drop. Who gives a flying fuck about 'last time'?

Are you one of the 'housing experts' who told us earlier this year that rates would not go up like they have? That housing prices would not drop as they have?

I see you like to label people without proof. Also, you’re quite emotional when it comes to this subject. Let’s clarify a couple things. I’ve never claimed I’m a housing expert. I’m a real estate investor, who started in 2009 just before I found Patnet. My biz partner and I own about 100 units in San Jose. We are value-add investors. We don’t pay retail prices. All assets have positive cash flow and appreciated tremendously…up to 4x.

I wasn’t as optimistic as others earlier this year. However, I never thought 30-year fixed mortgage would exceed 6% without crushing the housing market. I’m surprised the housing market hasn’t tanked more than they are.

I’m a numbers guy. I’m ALWAYS a buyer and seller “for the right price”. RE assets are vehicles to get me to my destination, just like a job. I don’t get emotional about them. I haven’t seen rent softness in MY market as reported. In fact, we’ve been getting record rents in the last few months.

The Fed has blown the asset bubbles beyond repair. The only way to fix these asset bubbles is to drive the entire country into a deep depression to reset everything. Do you see it happening? If not, the housing market should rebound and make another run once this recession is over. Developers have already pulled back on current projects and stalled new developments, which should continue to prolong the housing shortage in the short and long term.
1483   Eman   2022 Nov 22, 3:21pm  

Back in 2012, our real estate investing group asked all members to make prediction on the next peak of the housing market. My prediction was summer 2017. One of our members predicted 2021-2023 and shared this chart… A DECADE AGO. He was right on 🎯. He also predicted the bottom around 2027. History suggests 3-5 years, peak to trough, for real estate cycles so 2027 is in the ballpark.

One of my besties works for the Federal Reserve. JPOW is his boss. As much as he’s in the knows, he didn’t foresee his boss and the other 6 governors hiking rates this aggressively.

1484   cisTits   2022 Nov 22, 4:40pm  

Eman says


I see you like to label people without proof


You seem to misrepresent ppl. I asked questions. That's all.

But your defensiveness and the rationalthanks. bs you spouted did answer those questions, thanks.

The label speaks for itself.
1486   Booger   2022 Nov 23, 8:39am  

https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-investors-are-fleeing-pandemic-boomtowns-2022-11

Regular homebuyers in Las Vegas and Phoenix stand a chance now that investors are fleeing pandemic boomtowns
1487   ad   2022 Nov 23, 8:55am  

cisTits says


And it will at this rate? What? You all think this will suddenly stop and plateau? Or even rise again.

Takes 18 months at least for a housing downturn to run its course. This is barely starting


I would say at least half of the home purchases are with buyers with mortgages. So affordability (principal, interest, property tax, property insurance, and HOA fee) is a major factor as far as price discovery.

I go by the VA mortgage criteria that monthly housing cost (principal, interest, etc.) is no more than around 37% of monthly household income.

.
1488   Eman   2022 Nov 23, 9:08am  

Booger says





To counter your meme, here’s a “real expert” suggests housing prices could rise in 2023. 😂

NAR Economist Lawrence Yun suggests national prices could rise 1% next year, breaking from the pack of projections suggesting a freefall.

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/nar-economist-housing-prices-rise
1490   GNL   2022 Nov 23, 10:54am  

Eman says

Booger says







To counter your meme, here’s a “real expert” suggests housing prices could rise in 2023. 😂

NAR Economist Lawrence Yun suggests national prices could rise 1% next year, breaking from the pack of projections suggesting a freefall.

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/nar-economist-housing-prices-rise

An NAR cheerleader is a "Real Expert"?
1491   HeadSet   2022 Nov 23, 11:38am  

GNL says

An NAR cheerleader is a "Real Expert"?

I am pretty sure that claiming Yun as an expert is tongue-in-cheek. Lawrence Yun is a long-time butt of jokes on Patrick.net.
1492   Blue   2022 Nov 23, 11:41am  

GNL says


Eman says


Booger says







To counter your meme, here’s a “real expert” suggests housing prices could rise in 2023. 😂

NAR Economist Lawrence Yun suggests national prices could rise 1% next year, breaking from the pack of projections suggesting a freefall.

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/nar-economist-housing-prices-rise


An NAR cheerleader is a "Real Expert"?


Not sure what happens but at some point it stops going down except for few expensive areas as the inflation that is backed by corrupt gov is not going to slowing down any time soon.
1493   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Nov 23, 1:29pm  

Eman says

this chart

I have tried to chart asset values/prices like that.

Yes, we can do it and spin a narrative.

The problem I have with the approach is the vertical axis units is fiat currency. The value / purchasing power of the fiat is not constant and should not be taken for granted.

While the absolute (nominal) values in the chart may be accurate, if we are not careful our conclusions may be misleading.
1494   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Nov 24, 3:07pm  

11/11/2022 Price change $775,000 (-1.9%)$294/sqft

9/23/2022 Price change $790,000 (-11.2%)$300/sqft

9/2/2022 Price change $889,500 (-1.1%)$338/sqft

8/4/2022 Price change $899,000 (-3.3%)$342/sqft

7/11/2022 Listed for sale $929,500 $353/sqft

1495   Ceffer   2022 Nov 24, 5:03pm  

I saw one house in Santa Cruz (still absurdly high) that had a 500,000 dollar reduction. It was about 2500 sq. ft close to the beach.
1498   Booger   2022 Nov 25, 5:46pm  

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2022/11/22/jacksonville-housing-market-sees-big-slowdown-home-purchases-fall-through-at-highest-rate-in-nation/

Jacksonville housing market sees big slowdown, home purchases fall through at highest rate in nation
1499   ad   2022 Nov 25, 6:34pm  

Booger says

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2022/11/22/jacksonville-housing-market-sees-big-slowdown-home-purchases-fall-through-at-highest-rate-in-nation/

Jacksonville housing market sees big slowdown, home purchases fall through at highest rate in nation


Its about affordability where housing costs (principal+interest+taxes+insurance+hoa fees) is not more than about 36% of household income.

I expect housing will over-correct and there will be bloodshed which means housing affordability will be in a lot better circumstance.

.
1500   cisTits   2022 Nov 25, 6:54pm  

ad says

Its about affordability where housing costs (principal+interest+taxes+insurance+hoa fees) is not more than about 36% of household income.

I expect housing will over-correct and there will be bloodshed which means housing affordability will be in a lot better circumstance.


By what measures of income? In the Bay Area, housing would have to fall over 50% for middle income folks to ge able to achieve that.
1501   cisTits   2022 Nov 25, 7:24pm  

New data from Redfin confirms that Investors are running scared from the US Housing Market. In particular, they are running scared from Jerome Powell.

Redfin's report revealed a massive 30% Decline in Investor Home Purchases in Q3 2022 compared to the previous year. Excluding the initial stages of the pandemic, that was the largest decline in Investor buying since the last Housing Crash started in 2006.

In especially hard-hit metros such as Phoenix, Portland, and Las Vegas, Investor Purchases declined by more than 45% YoY. Marking a definitive end to the pandemic era of Investor Housing Market Domination.

What's amazing is how quickly this transition took place. Only six to nine months ago, the prevailing narrative across the US Housing Market was that Investors, particularly big Wall Street Landlords, were going to continue to gobble up homes forever. But then suddenly, they stopped. What happened?


https://www.reventure.app/blog/jerome-powell-just-kicked-investors-out-of-the-housing-market

Yes indeedy Oh Housing Experts of PatNet! WTF happened?

Jerome Powell is what happened. Starting in March 2022, the Powell-led Federal Reserve began increasing short-term Interest Rates. First by a little. Then by a lot. By October 2022 the Federal Funds Rate (the rate set by Powell and the Fed) was up to 3.1%.

This rapid escalation in Fed Funds Rate caused long-term interest rates to spike, pushing the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate up to 6.9%. The highest level in over two decades.


THAT Oh Housing Experts of PatNet is WTF happened. And earlier this year you said it wouldn't and anyone who pointed out the likelihood of it happening contrary to your wrong, dogmatic bullshit was told they didn't know WTF they were talking about.

And you know who you are even if I can not mention you directly.
1502   richwicks   2022 Nov 25, 7:38pm  

cisTits says

New data from Redfin confirms that Investors are running scared


And this is the problem. There's "investors".
1503   ad   2022 Nov 25, 7:50pm  

richwicks says


cisTits says

New data from Redfin confirms that Investors are running scared

And this is the problem. There's "investors".


True, over the last 22 years housing has become more of a speculative asset. Some of this is the home equity line of credit (HELOC) as home owners view their home equity as an investment or asset. Some use the HELOC money to invest in the stock market.
1504   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Nov 26, 4:20am  

Booger says

Jacksonville housing market sees big slowdown, home purchases fall through at highest rate in nation

Race and Hispanic Origin
White alone, percent - 56.3%
Black or African American alone, percent - 30.9%
1505   gabbar   2022 Nov 26, 5:56am  

I noticed that real estate agents give buyers a printed boiler plate home purchase agreement to complete and sign. Do they have an editable version of this agreement that they choose not to provide to buyers?
1506   Eman   2022 Nov 26, 2:06pm  

If you think it’s possible, it’s possible. If you think it’s impossible, keep your W2 and help build other people’s dreams.

It’s always a great time to buy or sell “for the right price.” We’re always buyers and sellers “for the right price.” Retailers are the problem, not investors. Let that sink in.

1507   ad   2022 Nov 26, 3:55pm  

gabbar says


I noticed that real estate agents give buyers a printed boiler plate home purchase agreement to complete and sign. Do they have an editable version of this agreement that they choose not to provide to buyers?


If its the standard form required by HUD, you can modify parts of it based on agreement of both parties.

.
1508   Eman   2022 Nov 26, 5:09pm  

ad says

richwicks says



cisTits says

New data from Redfin confirms that Investors are running scared

And this is the problem. There's "investors".


True, over the last 22 years housing has become more of a speculative asset. Some of this is the home equity line of credit (HELOC) as home owners view their home equity as an investment or asset. Some use the HELOC money to invest in the stock market.


This is not entire correct. Housing was on fire sale in late 2000’s and early 2010’s. Fortunes are made during recessions, or shall I say wealth transfer? A ton of money from the world was transferred here to buy real estate during those years.

HELOC is a double-edged sword. Some people use their HELOC to start-up their companies while others use it to buy liabilities. It’s not all bad…

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