housing prices peak 2
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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm 601,363 views 5,634 comments
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1998
WookieMan
2023 May 4, 6:56am
WookieMan
2023 May 4, 6:56am
NuttBoxer says
The problem most don't understand is you literally owe nothing if debt was obtained without fraud. People have been trained that debt and leverage are bad because it could hurt your credit score. That's literally the only penalty as long as you didn't commit fraud by lying to get the loan and make sure your savings are in protected assets. The bonus is you could drag the foreclosure process out 2 years if you're savvy not paying PITI at all, just utilities. I think most would take that for two years not paying anything for a roof over their head which we all have to.
The other thing with owning is yes, you can move out whenever you want. You don't sell and rent the place to someone like you that pays down the debt for you. My parents owned 4 houses, land and a condo in FL for 15 years, remotely from IL. It's not hard to be a landlord from anywhere in the country. Just because you own doesn't mean you need to sell. You then have cash out refi opportunities that are tax free income. No different than a margin loan on stocks. We got $85k on margin to the tune of $110/mo. With taxes and insurance our current house was $350/mo out the gate PITI.
You can also be more creative with it. I'm going to borrow $150k from my mom to build our new house. And yes we have over $50k of our own money to be at almost 40% down payment.
She's moving into my current house we live in once the new one is built. My property taxes are extremely low for IL. She's just going to assume the mortgage payments to the tune of a whopping $15,600/year PITI. On a $95k pension (tax free) with over a million in the bank and medical insurance taken care of. I could never provide that for my mom or her for me to build if I didn't own. Her buying now would have been double the cost even with senior exception. Depending how long she lives, if the kids are gone we sell the new build in 15-20 years and downsize back to our paid off old house.
People complain about the maintenance of owning a home. Don't buy then if you're not handy. Not bashing renters, but you're not cemented into owning a home and have no flexibility. You honestly can do more owning financially versus renting. If I cancel the build tomorrow I could move to St. Thomas and cashflow $1k/mo on my current home renting it. Live there for two years and see if I like it renting. Then I can always come back and move into my house kicking the renter out while they paid down my mortgage and paid my rent in Saint Thomas.
You can't do anything like that as a renter. You're not locking in your lease for 30 years. And yes I know most people don't stay in one place that long generally. I get the beef with the real estate industry itself #Realtors® as having been one myself. But owning WITHIN your means blows away renting 9 out of 10 times outside of living in Detroit of some other shit city.
Also in all my scenarios above I never paid a commission or an attorney besides the build. Learn how to play the game and owning destroys renting. The only time the game changes is when you can pay yourself with the debt after you have enough assets. That's risky and I think some small to mid level RE investors might get burned soon with the higher interest rates if they cashed out recently. If you have a job and don't pay yourself through debt leverage you should be fine. Certain areas will get hit harder. Depends on local politics, crime, zoning and regulation of housing.
Ultimately it's a preference if you have discipline. Rent has got to cover the note for the owner or they should just let it go. So at minimum you're paying what a homeowner would unless you get lucky. They can sell the house and cancel your lease, you're forced to move. It's happened to me, albeit it was a blessing in disguise and we bought a place. I'm paying at least $1k less per month than what I'd rent it for. We invest those savings and still make more money. If I had a $1,300 lease and got booted and moved to a $2k/mo lease I now have to make up over $7k of after tax money annually. Income is not increasing at that rate.
My life has been real estate until recently since I was probably 12 and my dad explained it to me as an attorney. Owning is better. It's just knowing the game. He made a solid attempt to cut out Realtors in the region. He knew they weren't necessary. When he did this if I knew what I know now, he likely would have succeeded. I was in middle school, so yeah, didn't know the game.
How much money do you owe? I don't owe anything.
The problem most don't understand is you literally owe nothing if debt was obtained without fraud. People have been trained that debt and leverage are bad because it could hurt your credit score. That's literally the only penalty as long as you didn't commit fraud by lying to get the loan and make sure your savings are in protected assets. The bonus is you could drag the foreclosure process out 2 years if you're savvy not paying PITI at all, just utilities. I think most would take that for two years not paying anything for a roof over their head which we all have to.
The other thing with owning is yes, you can move out whenever you want. You don't sell and rent the place to someone like you that pays down the debt for you. My parents owned 4 houses, land and a condo in FL for 15 years, remotely from IL. It's not hard to be a landlord from anywhere in the country. Just because you own doesn't mean you need to sell. You then have cash out refi opportunities that are tax free income. No different than a margin loan on stocks. We got $85k on margin to the tune of $110/mo. With taxes and insurance our current house was $350/mo out the gate PITI.
You can also be more creative with it. I'm going to borrow $150k from my mom to build our new house. And yes we have over $50k of our own money to be at almost 40% down payment.
She's moving into my current house we live in once the new one is built. My property taxes are extremely low for IL. She's just going to assume the mortgage payments to the tune of a whopping $15,600/year PITI. On a $95k pension (tax free) with over a million in the bank and medical insurance taken care of. I could never provide that for my mom or her for me to build if I didn't own. Her buying now would have been double the cost even with senior exception. Depending how long she lives, if the kids are gone we sell the new build in 15-20 years and downsize back to our paid off old house.
People complain about the maintenance of owning a home. Don't buy then if you're not handy. Not bashing renters, but you're not cemented into owning a home and have no flexibility. You honestly can do more owning financially versus renting. If I cancel the build tomorrow I could move to St. Thomas and cashflow $1k/mo on my current home renting it. Live there for two years and see if I like it renting. Then I can always come back and move into my house kicking the renter out while they paid down my mortgage and paid my rent in Saint Thomas.
You can't do anything like that as a renter. You're not locking in your lease for 30 years. And yes I know most people don't stay in one place that long generally. I get the beef with the real estate industry itself #Realtors® as having been one myself. But owning WITHIN your means blows away renting 9 out of 10 times outside of living in Detroit of some other shit city.
Also in all my scenarios above I never paid a commission or an attorney besides the build. Learn how to play the game and owning destroys renting. The only time the game changes is when you can pay yourself with the debt after you have enough assets. That's risky and I think some small to mid level RE investors might get burned soon with the higher interest rates if they cashed out recently. If you have a job and don't pay yourself through debt leverage you should be fine. Certain areas will get hit harder. Depends on local politics, crime, zoning and regulation of housing.
Ultimately it's a preference if you have discipline. Rent has got to cover the note for the owner or they should just let it go. So at minimum you're paying what a homeowner would unless you get lucky. They can sell the house and cancel your lease, you're forced to move. It's happened to me, albeit it was a blessing in disguise and we bought a place. I'm paying at least $1k less per month than what I'd rent it for. We invest those savings and still make more money. If I had a $1,300 lease and got booted and moved to a $2k/mo lease I now have to make up over $7k of after tax money annually. Income is not increasing at that rate.
My life has been real estate until recently since I was probably 12 and my dad explained it to me as an attorney. Owning is better. It's just knowing the game. He made a solid attempt to cut out Realtors in the region. He knew they weren't necessary. When he did this if I knew what I know now, he likely would have succeeded. I was in middle school, so yeah, didn't know the game.
1999
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 4, 7:50am
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 4, 7:50am
NuttBoxer says
Bitcoiner says
gabbar says
ad says
WookieMan says
All true.
When I was in college I noticed that my elderly relatives who owned their homes were able to manage. They had a bit of money to go to a restaurant or a show. My elderly relatives who were renting were mostly either struggling to make ends meet, or weren't struggling but did not have much extra for discretionary stuff. Of course, it did not occur to me at the time that the ones who did not spend much on discretionary stuff could have been miserly thrifts (or, is it thrifty misers?) but with a single exception, I doubt it based on what happened with the estates when they passed.
So this is how after I got out of college I had a goal to live in a paid off home by age 60. It was not an "investment". It was just to be able to control my living cost in old age.
Over the 30 years of amortizing the loan I came to realize that what we had was not "control", but a "measure of control", - we still have some costs like the insurance, taxes, repairs, etc. I view those costs as our "owners' equivalent rent". Presently it's about $1200 per month for a sh*tbox in an undesirable neighborhood in Silicon Valley that would rent for about $3000 - $3500 per month. So I suppose presently we have 60% or so ownership discount. But! That does not mean it was a superb investment because for much of those 30 years we were paying an ownership premium. Could we have done better investing that premium in the stock market? I don't know, too many variables to figure that out.
Some Cool-Aid drinkers might speak of the $1 million equity we have. It doesn't mean a whole lot, especially here in California with Proposition 13. If our ownership premium is about $1800 - $2300 per month on a million dollar property, it's about a 2% return on the equity. And that's with a Proposition-13 tax assessment based on a 1989 purchase. Does that sound like such a savvy "investment", homie?
I look at Zillow sometimes. To buy-in these days in our region, which means buying-in to a huge Property Tax bill, is to pay a massive ownership premium for the privilege, 60% or more. It is ridiculous. This is how it was in 2005-6 when I first began following Patrick's site. It was because I was sick and freaking tired of the Smug behavior of some Silicon Valley office mates, every one of them moved to here from somewhere else like India, China, or other parts of the US, towards my other office mates who were renters (mostly local kids like me). Like they were people with an inferior intellect, like they "don't get it", like they pissed away their Silicon Valley salaries and RSU's on stupid shi*t.
Some of those techies came from Old Money Back Home (Asia) and couldn't care/worry less. But many did not "bring old money to the table", nor did the Hipster Cool-Aid Drinkers who moved here from other parts of the USA. (Some of them were Serial Refinancers, including equity out. So many folks talk about how the RSU's paid for the fancy cars in the parking lot. Maybe. Just as likely though it was the HELOCs). The stress/anxiety of the huge PITI brought out the worst in some of these folks at the workplace. When I finally quit working (laid off in late 50's) and decided to retire I'd had enough of being around those folks.
So back then (2005-06 Bubble) the few homie office mates and I began following Patrick's site of kindred spirit.
How much money do you owe? I don't owe anything.
Bitcoiner says
Nuttboxer, why does it have to be so dramatic (leveraging up the ass). Just because I own properties doesn’t mean I am drowning in debt. Yeah, sure, when you add up the debt of these houses it’s seems like a large figure but that’s the wrong way of looking at it.
gabbar says
A mortgage loan 'officer' told me, you have this 100k cash in your account because you didn't upgrade your life after graduating from school; you still live like a poor student. And I was actually living a great life then, spending money on things I liked to do.
ad says
Patrick has been renting at least since I remember this article, and seeing him around 2007 on ABC's 20/20 being interviewed about the housing boom. The 20/20 episode on housing is what led me to Patrick.net
You can still recover from opportunity cost of not buying a home by diligently investing in the stock market any savings from not buying a home.
WookieMan says
ltimately it's a preference if you have discipline
All true.
When I was in college I noticed that my elderly relatives who owned their homes were able to manage. They had a bit of money to go to a restaurant or a show. My elderly relatives who were renting were mostly either struggling to make ends meet, or weren't struggling but did not have much extra for discretionary stuff. Of course, it did not occur to me at the time that the ones who did not spend much on discretionary stuff could have been miserly thrifts (or, is it thrifty misers?) but with a single exception, I doubt it based on what happened with the estates when they passed.
So this is how after I got out of college I had a goal to live in a paid off home by age 60. It was not an "investment". It was just to be able to control my living cost in old age.
Over the 30 years of amortizing the loan I came to realize that what we had was not "control", but a "measure of control", - we still have some costs like the insurance, taxes, repairs, etc. I view those costs as our "owners' equivalent rent". Presently it's about $1200 per month for a sh*tbox in an undesirable neighborhood in Silicon Valley that would rent for about $3000 - $3500 per month. So I suppose presently we have 60% or so ownership discount. But! That does not mean it was a superb investment because for much of those 30 years we were paying an ownership premium. Could we have done better investing that premium in the stock market? I don't know, too many variables to figure that out.
Some Cool-Aid drinkers might speak of the $1 million equity we have. It doesn't mean a whole lot, especially here in California with Proposition 13. If our ownership premium is about $1800 - $2300 per month on a million dollar property, it's about a 2% return on the equity. And that's with a Proposition-13 tax assessment based on a 1989 purchase. Does that sound like such a savvy "investment", homie?
I look at Zillow sometimes. To buy-in these days in our region, which means buying-in to a huge Property Tax bill, is to pay a massive ownership premium for the privilege, 60% or more. It is ridiculous. This is how it was in 2005-6 when I first began following Patrick's site. It was because I was sick and freaking tired of the Smug behavior of some Silicon Valley office mates, every one of them moved to here from somewhere else like India, China, or other parts of the US, towards my other office mates who were renters (mostly local kids like me). Like they were people with an inferior intellect, like they "don't get it", like they pissed away their Silicon Valley salaries and RSU's on stupid shi*t.
Some of those techies came from Old Money Back Home (Asia) and couldn't care/worry less. But many did not "bring old money to the table", nor did the Hipster Cool-Aid Drinkers who moved here from other parts of the USA. (Some of them were Serial Refinancers, including equity out. So many folks talk about how the RSU's paid for the fancy cars in the parking lot. Maybe. Just as likely though it was the HELOCs). The stress/anxiety of the huge PITI brought out the worst in some of these folks at the workplace. When I finally quit working (laid off in late 50's) and decided to retire I'd had enough of being around those folks.
So back then (2005-06 Bubble) the few homie office mates and I began following Patrick's site of kindred spirit.
2000
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 4, 8:50am
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 4, 8:50am
Bitcoiner says
I am making some assumptions based on your posts, and people I know personally who have similar thoughts.
The value of the houses right now, correct? In an inflated market where housing is over-valued by at least 60%? What happens to your financial situation when those values correct? If everything stays as is, you're right, doing very well. But all the warning signs indicate we are very far from a stable situation being reality anytime soon.
My credit is very high, despite never having a car loan, home loan, and only owning one credit card I only used sparingly for a few years. As I've said many times, if you can pick the bones, go for it! But make sure you have an exit strategy as the worm turns, or you will be in a very bad spot.
If your creditors call in their loans all at once, where would you be at? Do you trust the people you owe? May not happen, or be a likely outcome, but we have a financial system attempting to transition to CDBC, and run by ruthless sociopaths who locked everyone in their homes for no reason, so your loans in this environment are a risk.
I'm still in San Diego, and the drops I mentioned are easy to find on Zillow and Trulia(for rent drops). The for sale signs in my neighborhood stay up for a long time, plenty of housing, just no one willing to pay for it. My wife's friend's sister just bought a house for $750k, after divorcing her husband, so only one income, and she doesn't make that kind of money. My wife's cousin bought a few years ago. Had to lower their asking significantly to sell, and didn't get much for their money, though their location is nicer. In debt again, of course. My friend sold in Point Loma after a divorce several years back. When you factor in the work he did on the property, was a net loss.
Had a co-worker who bought in Dallas a few months back. Told us his realtor said his house wouldn't go down in value, just wouldn't gain(ahahaha). Another co-worker who bought in 2011 outside Dallas(at the time), told him no way! That guy said he has lost money, and he bought near the bottom!
Nuttboxer, why does it have to be so dramatic (leveraging up the ass). Just because I own properties doesn’t mean I am drowning in debt. Yeah, sure, when you add up the debt of these houses it’s seems like a large figure but that’s the wrong way of looking at it. The market value of those homes is significantly more than the debt.
I am making some assumptions based on your posts, and people I know personally who have similar thoughts.
The value of the houses right now, correct? In an inflated market where housing is over-valued by at least 60%? What happens to your financial situation when those values correct? If everything stays as is, you're right, doing very well. But all the warning signs indicate we are very far from a stable situation being reality anytime soon.
My credit is very high, despite never having a car loan, home loan, and only owning one credit card I only used sparingly for a few years. As I've said many times, if you can pick the bones, go for it! But make sure you have an exit strategy as the worm turns, or you will be in a very bad spot.
If your creditors call in their loans all at once, where would you be at? Do you trust the people you owe? May not happen, or be a likely outcome, but we have a financial system attempting to transition to CDBC, and run by ruthless sociopaths who locked everyone in their homes for no reason, so your loans in this environment are a risk.
I'm still in San Diego, and the drops I mentioned are easy to find on Zillow and Trulia(for rent drops). The for sale signs in my neighborhood stay up for a long time, plenty of housing, just no one willing to pay for it. My wife's friend's sister just bought a house for $750k, after divorcing her husband, so only one income, and she doesn't make that kind of money. My wife's cousin bought a few years ago. Had to lower their asking significantly to sell, and didn't get much for their money, though their location is nicer. In debt again, of course. My friend sold in Point Loma after a divorce several years back. When you factor in the work he did on the property, was a net loss.
Had a co-worker who bought in Dallas a few months back. Told us his realtor said his house wouldn't go down in value, just wouldn't gain(ahahaha). Another co-worker who bought in 2011 outside Dallas(at the time), told him no way! That guy said he has lost money, and he bought near the bottom!
2001
gabbar
2023 May 4, 8:52am
gabbar
2023 May 4, 8:52am
I don't own a home. Live in a good apartment in a relatively inexpensive and safe area with access to healthcare, entertainment, schools but not warm weather. I noticed that my wife buys a lot of trinkets (extra clothes, shoes, inexpensive jewelry, artwork, purses, make up, ....) If we owned a home, she would have filled up the home with this stuff, stuff we don't need. We have a good life without a home and this is how I judge my success/failure. I dont care what anyone thinks about being a renter rather than a home owner (you are renting the home when you are paying the mortgage) Life is just too short for optimizing housing options
2002
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 4, 8:58am
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 4, 8:58am
Bitcoiner says
So because you own that makes your automatically better at finance!? I think not, and 2008 agrees with me. Plus the examples I listed above. If you're good with money, you can rent, own or squat, doesn't matter for shit. The two have zero correlation.
I've always done whatever I wanted to in my life. My wife has never needed to work despite living in San Diego. I've never felt the need to put up with shit at a job, though I'm a bit wiser about how I leave than I used to be. If you enjoy your life, and have the freedom to live how you want, that's what matters most.
How many of your renter friends are financially disciplined and dollar cost avg (without emotional mess ups ) for a long period of time? Very few.
So because you own that makes your automatically better at finance!? I think not, and 2008 agrees with me. Plus the examples I listed above. If you're good with money, you can rent, own or squat, doesn't matter for shit. The two have zero correlation.
I've always done whatever I wanted to in my life. My wife has never needed to work despite living in San Diego. I've never felt the need to put up with shit at a job, though I'm a bit wiser about how I leave than I used to be. If you enjoy your life, and have the freedom to live how you want, that's what matters most.
2003
krc
2023 May 4, 9:29am
It also depends I think on what you like to actually do in your free time. For me, I like tinkering. I like a garage that I can add 220 power, install machines, rip down walls, etc... I enjoy remodeling a bathroom even if it takes me months / years (wife is patient). I like building out new fences, chicken coops, etc...
If I became disabled I think what I did would change and renting would make more sense.
Another consideration is schooling for children. As a renter you have a risk of losing the rental and perhaps having to move to another district.
It is not always easy to stay in the same district/school depending on other rental availability, etc...
For me, home ownership is not about what is more financially "profitable" or "astute" but how I choose to live.
If I became disabled I think what I did would change and renting would make more sense.
Another consideration is schooling for children. As a renter you have a risk of losing the rental and perhaps having to move to another district.
It is not always easy to stay in the same district/school depending on other rental availability, etc...
For me, home ownership is not about what is more financially "profitable" or "astute" but how I choose to live.
2004
gabbar
2023 May 4, 10:39am
gabbar
2023 May 4, 10:39am
Bitcoiner says
Good points.
I don't like entertaining others or having a party for others. I like to read books, see interesting videos on YouTube on topics that make a difference in quality of life. Seems like we all find meaning in different ways and that is okay. You are the only person who should decide what something means for you and you are the person who should define criteria of success in life. (Hopefully one has not been brainwashed into reacting to issue that are some one else's agenda)
otally agree with KRC. A home gives me space to store toys, additional cars, allows me to entertain and have larger parties etc. I don’t really care what my house is worth right now because I intend to never sell it. Evt I rent it out. Let’s say it increases by 30% in the next years. Great. Let’s say it loses 70% of its value. Great. None of these mean anything to my monthly bills. I get to live in my dream home and create memories with my family and friends.
Good points.
I don't like entertaining others or having a party for others. I like to read books, see interesting videos on YouTube on topics that make a difference in quality of life. Seems like we all find meaning in different ways and that is okay. You are the only person who should decide what something means for you and you are the person who should define criteria of success in life. (Hopefully one has not been brainwashed into reacting to issue that are some one else's agenda)
2005
AD
2023 May 4, 12:48pm
AD
2023 May 4, 12:48pm
Bitcoiner says
You are right as I also do not treat our home as an asset on my balance sheet.
My only concern is in regards to arbitrage, that is selling our home at a fair price and then buying another home at a fair price using the capital gains from the previous home sale.
Our home is a utilitarian means, as it serves also for hobbies like vegetable, herb and flower gardening by using large pots, and it has a garage which acts like a 2 car outdoor covered patio as well as art studio for my wife and a storage such as for my kayaks, fishing gear, etc.
I can relax watching a free movie on Youtube (like : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KgApEKS7bY) using our large screen high definition TV instead of going to the movies.
Plus we have a nice enough kitchen to do a lot of cooking instead of going out to eat. So our home saves us money.
.
Totally agree with KRC. A home gives me space to store toys, additional cars, allows me to entertain and have larger parties etc.
You are right as I also do not treat our home as an asset on my balance sheet.
My only concern is in regards to arbitrage, that is selling our home at a fair price and then buying another home at a fair price using the capital gains from the previous home sale.
Our home is a utilitarian means, as it serves also for hobbies like vegetable, herb and flower gardening by using large pots, and it has a garage which acts like a 2 car outdoor covered patio as well as art studio for my wife and a storage such as for my kayaks, fishing gear, etc.
I can relax watching a free movie on Youtube (like : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KgApEKS7bY) using our large screen high definition TV instead of going to the movies.
Plus we have a nice enough kitchen to do a lot of cooking instead of going out to eat. So our home saves us money.
.
2006
mell
2023 May 4, 2:57pm
Bitcoiner says
This is true. Though such low rate locked-in mortgages were only possible due to the Fed keeping the interest "discount" (rate) window near zero, a locked-in 3% mortgage is advantageous to the house owner. The higher the interest rate is, the more cash you want to pay upfront.
The low mortgage is guaranteed for the next 25 years until the house is paid off…..what will that apartment rent for in 25years?
This is true. Though such low rate locked-in mortgages were only possible due to the Fed keeping the interest "discount" (rate) window near zero, a locked-in 3% mortgage is advantageous to the house owner. The higher the interest rate is, the more cash you want to pay upfront.
2007
gabbar
2023 May 4, 4:58pm
gabbar
2023 May 4, 4:58pm
So, going forward, what happens to the real estate agents, brokers, mortgage officers, car salesmen, auto financing...or any other business where financing is required?
2008
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 4, 5:37pm
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 4, 5:37pm
Bitcoiner says
I've been paying $1,500 - $1,700 the last three years. Went up to $1,870 this month, and that's when we decided to cash out. You can get a nice house in Yuma for that price. You know prices for anything, doesn't matter what it is, can't go past what people are willing to pay or can afford right? I mean this reasoning sounds very '06 to me. And as I mentioned, worm is already turning, even in rentals. I expect things will look much better in a year for realistic housing values.
Look at the price drops in the 2000's and tell me 60% isn't realistic, considering inflation is even higher now. A severe correction is long overdue.
I'm in complete agreement on property as an asset if it's out in the country, several acres in size, has water, and farmable land. Property like that will always have a use, in any situation.
I will say we regret not buying in 2011. We could have bought outside of town where we live now for a reasonable price, under the USDA program, without being rushed into it. But we weren't willing to leave the city at that time. Not a financial regret at all, a lifestyle regret. We really like where we live, just aren't willing to pay more to stay. So in that respect you are 100% correct. But we were young, and different people back then.
Rents tend to go up and mortgages are fixed. In San Diego for instance, the avg rent for apartments is close to 3k! That’s more than my mortgage on a large house!
And it only gets better for me. The low mortgage is guaranteed for the next 25 years until the house is paid off…..what will that apartment rent for in 25years? Jeez I don’t even want to know.
I've been paying $1,500 - $1,700 the last three years. Went up to $1,870 this month, and that's when we decided to cash out. You can get a nice house in Yuma for that price. You know prices for anything, doesn't matter what it is, can't go past what people are willing to pay or can afford right? I mean this reasoning sounds very '06 to me. And as I mentioned, worm is already turning, even in rentals. I expect things will look much better in a year for realistic housing values.
Look at the price drops in the 2000's and tell me 60% isn't realistic, considering inflation is even higher now. A severe correction is long overdue.
I'm in complete agreement on property as an asset if it's out in the country, several acres in size, has water, and farmable land. Property like that will always have a use, in any situation.
I will say we regret not buying in 2011. We could have bought outside of town where we live now for a reasonable price, under the USDA program, without being rushed into it. But we weren't willing to leave the city at that time. Not a financial regret at all, a lifestyle regret. We really like where we live, just aren't willing to pay more to stay. So in that respect you are 100% correct. But we were young, and different people back then.
2009
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 4, 5:46pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 4, 5:46pm
NuttBoxer says
Yup. Folks here in the SFBay Area who buy now paying a 60% or so premium to "own" vs rent. Sounds like 2006.
"Oh but it's different this time.". Yeah some differences. But what's not different is the insane ownership premium.
When I followed patrick's website during the previous Bubble in California real estate there was a local renter kid (local to the LA Area) with the handle surferex who contributed many comments to threads about the insanity of the prices. Then one day he shared a photo of himself in the home that he bought around that time. At peak of that market. It was a capitulation, signaling a peak.
Kind of like the local Bay Area kid who commented on threads for a long time in recent years about the insanity till he shared that he capitulated and bought a place. Another capitulation from a local who knew better, - signaling the top.
You know prices for anything, doesn't matter what it is, can't go past what people are willing to pay or can afford right? I mean this reasoning sounds very '06 to me
Yup. Folks here in the SFBay Area who buy now paying a 60% or so premium to "own" vs rent. Sounds like 2006.
"Oh but it's different this time.". Yeah some differences. But what's not different is the insane ownership premium.
When I followed patrick's website during the previous Bubble in California real estate there was a local renter kid (local to the LA Area) with the handle surferex who contributed many comments to threads about the insanity of the prices. Then one day he shared a photo of himself in the home that he bought around that time. At peak of that market. It was a capitulation, signaling a peak.
Kind of like the local Bay Area kid who commented on threads for a long time in recent years about the insanity till he shared that he capitulated and bought a place. Another capitulation from a local who knew better, - signaling the top.
2010
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 5, 9:00am
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 5, 9:00am
Bitcoiner says
The rare capitulation of a local kid to the high prices signaled a price peak, with ownership premium at 50%+ over renting. That's the point. After all, the heading for the original post is "Housing Prices Peak 2".
My homies who bought in this expensive market did so when the ownership premium was closer to zero than the insane premium now, - locking-in a reasonable Proposition-13 property tax. They weren't necessarily savvy, - they just didn't capitulate to the overpriced insantiy.
Kind of like the local kids who post on patrick's site iwog and Eman buying when The Sky Was Falling Down in the Financial Crisis.
Forgive me, I have a hard time following what your point is.
The rare capitulation of a local kid to the high prices signaled a price peak, with ownership premium at 50%+ over renting. That's the point. After all, the heading for the original post is "Housing Prices Peak 2".
My homies who bought in this expensive market did so when the ownership premium was closer to zero than the insane premium now, - locking-in a reasonable Proposition-13 property tax. They weren't necessarily savvy, - they just didn't capitulate to the overpriced insantiy.
Kind of like the local kids who post on patrick's site iwog and Eman buying when The Sky Was Falling Down in the Financial Crisis.
2011
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 5, 10:08am
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 5, 10:08am
Bitcoiner says
Renting. We would never buy somewhere without living there first.
Bitcoiner says
Trulia is better, because they show the price changes without having to dive into the listing. Average rent where I live and used to live is $2,000 - $2,200, which is well over anything I've ever paid, and way too much. And I've been following rents pretty closely for the past year, being a renter. To level set, this would be for a 2/2 or 2/1.
Bitcoiner says
First of all, we've never paid the rents you assume are normal in San Diego, and never had trouble finding a place. And unfortunately, we've had a bad habit of moving far more often than we should have. So personal experience is housing "shortages" are a giant crock of bullshit.
You don't need more units, just longer vacancies due to no one being willing to pay your rent. Basic economics, owner can't charge more than someone is willing to pay.
And despite living somewhere where the rent has been at least $400 under every other property in the area, we see constant turnover. My guess is inability to find work in San Diego, coupled with the fact that it's way cheaper elsewhere. Neighbor behind us bought a house in Wisconsin next to his brother.
Bitcoiner says
Because 0% is even better. A family friend from Santee sold their crapshack and bought a multi-acre 3,000 sqft home in Prescott, and had a good chunk left over.
Nuttboxer, do I read this correctly, you are moving to Yuma to rent there or are you planning on buying a house there?
Renting. We would never buy somewhere without living there first.
Bitcoiner says
And regarding the rents in San Diego. That’s a 15 sec exercise to open your Zillow app and see the enormous high rents in the city. I am just the messenger.
Trulia is better, because they show the price changes without having to dive into the listing. Average rent where I live and used to live is $2,000 - $2,200, which is well over anything I've ever paid, and way too much. And I've been following rents pretty closely for the past year, being a renter. To level set, this would be for a 2/2 or 2/1.
Bitcoiner says
For any significant price drops you need inventory to go up significantly, right?
First of all, we've never paid the rents you assume are normal in San Diego, and never had trouble finding a place. And unfortunately, we've had a bad habit of moving far more often than we should have. So personal experience is housing "shortages" are a giant crock of bullshit.
You don't need more units, just longer vacancies due to no one being willing to pay your rent. Basic economics, owner can't charge more than someone is willing to pay.
And despite living somewhere where the rent has been at least $400 under every other property in the area, we see constant turnover. My guess is inability to find work in San Diego, coupled with the fact that it's way cheaper elsewhere. Neighbor behind us bought a house in Wisconsin next to his brother.
Bitcoiner says
Think about it, if I sell my home today because I want to upgrade or downgrade, I would give up 2.75% for 25y and replace it with 6.5%. Why wouldn’t I just stay put if I can?
Because 0% is even better. A family friend from Santee sold their crapshack and bought a multi-acre 3,000 sqft home in Prescott, and had a good chunk left over.
2015
zzyzzx
2023 May 5, 11:35am
zzyzzx
2023 May 5, 11:35am
I'm left wondering if this person is a realtor:
Reddit commentary:
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/136z4vs/just_take_out_a_heloc/
Reddit commentary:
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/136z4vs/just_take_out_a_heloc/
2017
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 5, 12:49pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 5, 12:49pm
Bitcoiner says
Dude, you're rationalizing stuff. Whatever you wanna rationalize and good for you.
Doesn't change my point, which is more to the point of the original post than your rationalizations, that the rare homies here along the coast who complained about the insane prices but then jumped in (capitulated) signal a top.
I see. 50% doesn’t seem bad as a premium. I assume you are talking about monthly rent versus PITI. The p of course stands for principal. That’s your money/equity. And the premium on your PITI is only at the beginning. After a few years rents catch up and soon thereafter your rent is higher than someone else’ mortgage for a comparable property. But I see you point, you look at it as of now: cheaper to rent than to own you rent and wait until prices come down. Good for you. I hope it works out.
Dude, you're rationalizing stuff. Whatever you wanna rationalize and good for you.
Doesn't change my point, which is more to the point of the original post than your rationalizations, that the rare homies here along the coast who complained about the insane prices but then jumped in (capitulated) signal a top.
2018
Booger
2023 May 5, 1:29pm
Booger
2023 May 5, 1:29pm
gabbar says
"Would you like fries with that?"
So, going forward, what happens to the real estate agents, brokers, mortgage officers, car salesmen, auto financing...or any other business where financing is required?
"Would you like fries with that?"
2019
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 5, 2:58pm
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 5, 2:58pm
Bitcoiner says
East of San Diego, you can probably figure it out. Love it out here, would never go back to the city. But I also check rents in South Bay, where we used to live, and they're about the same range I mentioned.
Sounds like you got a good deal right now, and actually would have been a good deal for a while now. But I remember when houses in Chula Vista used to go for $1,700, and that's where they will return. Inflation always bursts at some point, and things level out. Been the name of the game since forever.
We were in Phoenix for a year. I'm not gonna say it ain't hot, but did seem a bit exaggerated to me. We'll be just a few hours drive from the beach, don't plan on many summer weekends in Yuma. If things go well, wouldn't be surprised if we move again in a year to a much cheaper 3/2. Housing out there is some of the cheapest in the country. But we've been cooped up for too long, gonna spoil ourselves this year.
So you are in the outskirts of San Diego then. You are not talking about being in the city of SD. Don’t dox yourself, but could you tell me which city you are in? My mortgage is under 3k including HOA and I have 4bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a large loft, an office, a great room, large backyard, 3 car garage. And that’s my point, in a few years a one bedroom apartment cost as much in rent as my house thanks to inflation. To me that’s a no brainer to buy because of those ever increasing rents.
Let us know how you like Yuma. People I know who moved from SD to phoenix like it except for the brutal summers.
East of San Diego, you can probably figure it out. Love it out here, would never go back to the city. But I also check rents in South Bay, where we used to live, and they're about the same range I mentioned.
Sounds like you got a good deal right now, and actually would have been a good deal for a while now. But I remember when houses in Chula Vista used to go for $1,700, and that's where they will return. Inflation always bursts at some point, and things level out. Been the name of the game since forever.
We were in Phoenix for a year. I'm not gonna say it ain't hot, but did seem a bit exaggerated to me. We'll be just a few hours drive from the beach, don't plan on many summer weekends in Yuma. If things go well, wouldn't be surprised if we move again in a year to a much cheaper 3/2. Housing out there is some of the cheapest in the country. But we've been cooped up for too long, gonna spoil ourselves this year.
2020
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 5, 8:19pm
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 5, 8:19pm
Like I said, already seen two houses drop several hundred off their rent because they were sitting. I ain't thinking, I'm seeing.
2021
AD
2023 May 5, 8:58pm
AD
2023 May 5, 8:58pm
NuttBoxer says
I noticed around Panama City Beach like apartments such as Urban Blu and 10X Living that they offer 1 month rent free for 13 month lease.
This is more common now and also the rental rates seems to be unchanged since 2022.
.
Like I said, already seen two houses drop several hundred off their rent because they were sitting. I ain't thinking, I'm seeing.
I noticed around Panama City Beach like apartments such as Urban Blu and 10X Living that they offer 1 month rent free for 13 month lease.
This is more common now and also the rental rates seems to be unchanged since 2022.
.
2023
mell
2023 May 6, 8:04am
Bitcoiner says
It has to go up with inflation. Everything does as long as there's inflation.
NuttBoxer says
Like I said, already seen two houses drop several hundred off their rent because they were sitting. I ain't thinking, I'm seeing.
It’s fascinating isn’t it. Two people can look at the same chart. One person says: I saw two houses go down in rent! The other says: looks like avg rent goes up over time.
It has to go up with inflation. Everything does as long as there's inflation.
2024
Robert Sproul
2023 May 6, 9:24am
My theory on when rent and home prices will come down? When food inflation really kicks off. At the turn of the last century food was 40% of household expense. Now the equation has flipped and some pay 40% for housing. Both can’t be high at the same time. (Clothing was nearly 20% (!) and is now negligible, this will change too if the shit kicks-off with China. Everybody gripes about ‘cheap Chinese shit’…wait till it disappears.)
When food and clothes got cheap, last century, housing costs could rise because they will ALWAYS get 100% of the working man's wages. They are trying to get more than that with consumer debt but that can only go so far.
When food and clothes got cheap, last century, housing costs could rise because they will ALWAYS get 100% of the working man's wages. They are trying to get more than that with consumer debt but that can only go so far.
2025
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 6, 9:43am
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 6, 9:43am
mell says
Our wages (and pension income) and so purchasing power, - ie, ability to pay the higher rents the landlords covet - may not keep up, though.
This was my thinking decades ago in wanting to own my home.
Everything does as long as there's inflation.
Our wages (and pension income) and so purchasing power, - ie, ability to pay the higher rents the landlords covet - may not keep up, though.
This was my thinking decades ago in wanting to own my home.
2026
mell
2023 May 6, 9:49am
B.A.C.A.H. says
Yeah purchasing power erodes slowly against inflation, but it takes a long time to make a dent. Plus low inventory will sell/rent it to the next immigrants/transplants that have enough money. Also corporate housing by big tech. SV has been in decline for a while now, but it's slow. Many chindians still moving in, the decline may not be unwanted for those seeking a break from tech hipster doofuses
mell says
Everything does as long as there's inflation.
Our wages (and pension income) and so purchasing power, - ie, ability to pay the higher rents the landlords covet - may not keep up, though.
This was my thinking decades ago in wanting to own my home.
Yeah purchasing power erodes slowly against inflation, but it takes a long time to make a dent. Plus low inventory will sell/rent it to the next immigrants/transplants that have enough money. Also corporate housing by big tech. SV has been in decline for a while now, but it's slow. Many chindians still moving in, the decline may not be unwanted for those seeking a break from tech hipster doofuses
2027
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 6, 9:50am
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 6, 9:50am
Bitcoiner says
Bully for you.
The title of the thread is "housing prices peak 2".
Your incessant comments about how savvy your purchases at peak prices are sounds like you're trying to make a convincing argument to someone about a premise that's different than the original post.
Is that someone you?
I bought the top in 2020 and again a top in 2022 for one of my rentals. Everytime i buy, it’s the top at that time. Funny thing is people TODAY would kill to buy the top
Bully for you.
The title of the thread is "housing prices peak 2".
Your incessant comments about how savvy your purchases at peak prices are sounds like you're trying to make a convincing argument to someone about a premise that's different than the original post.
Is that someone you?
2029
Eman
2023 May 6, 1:41pm
Eman
2023 May 6, 1:41pm
Bitcoiner says
You’re not wrong, but you’re not right either. The catch is no one knows where the peak is, and no one knows where the bottom is. However, buying at the peak locks one in a higher property tax basis vs. buying at the bottom. I have properties where I paid $150-$160k each a decade ago, and they’re worth $550-$600k now. My property tax liability is $3k/year vs. buying now and paying $8-$9k. That’s $400-$500/mo delta in cash flow perpetuity. Buying “right” allows for a higher return.
We live in an inflationary economy so assets tend to rise over time and coastal housing has been appreciating at a rate exceeding inflation. We can agree that coastal housing is a good inflation hedge. I can see real estate prices continue to rise while the yield keeps getting compressed; thus, the premium in owning vs. renting may get wider/bigger. However, I don’t believe real estate return in the next decade will be anything like the last decade.
I don’t think I am wrong. Buying at peak / top in housing means very little in the context of a longterm time horizon. A purchase today at 2006 peak bubble prices is considered a steal today. Even buying today at 2020 prices would be worth a murder. Can you imagine that in a decade people would love, love, love to buy at 2023 price levels? I can. Easily.
You’re not wrong, but you’re not right either. The catch is no one knows where the peak is, and no one knows where the bottom is. However, buying at the peak locks one in a higher property tax basis vs. buying at the bottom. I have properties where I paid $150-$160k each a decade ago, and they’re worth $550-$600k now. My property tax liability is $3k/year vs. buying now and paying $8-$9k. That’s $400-$500/mo delta in cash flow perpetuity. Buying “right” allows for a higher return.
We live in an inflationary economy so assets tend to rise over time and coastal housing has been appreciating at a rate exceeding inflation. We can agree that coastal housing is a good inflation hedge. I can see real estate prices continue to rise while the yield keeps getting compressed; thus, the premium in owning vs. renting may get wider/bigger. However, I don’t believe real estate return in the next decade will be anything like the last decade.
2030
AD
2023 May 6, 2:40pm
AD
2023 May 6, 2:40pm
NuttBoxer says
Yes, as supply has been increasing such as number of unsold homes on the market. My post above about Invitation Homes is part of that.
And then I noticed rentals such as for 2 bedrooms are still holding at reasonable rates in my county.
In this case, the below 2 bedroom, 1 bath apartment is near Tyndall AFB. Its very affordable at $950 a month considering the starting wage is at least $15 an hour for fast food.
.
.
Like I said, already seen two houses drop several hundred off their rent because they were sitting. I ain't thinking, I'm seeing.
Yes, as supply has been increasing such as number of unsold homes on the market. My post above about Invitation Homes is part of that.
And then I noticed rentals such as for 2 bedrooms are still holding at reasonable rates in my county.
In this case, the below 2 bedroom, 1 bath apartment is near Tyndall AFB. Its very affordable at $950 a month considering the starting wage is at least $15 an hour for fast food.
.
.
2031
AmericanKulak
2023 May 6, 2:42pm
AmericanKulak
2023 May 6, 2:42pm
ad says
Very reasonable these days.
NuttBoxer says
Like I said, already seen two houses drop several hundred off their rent because they were sitting. I ain't thinking, I'm seeing.
Yes, as supply has been increasing such as number of unsold homes on the market. My post above about Invitation Homes is part of that.
And then I noticed rentals such as for 2 bedrooms are still holding at reasonable rates in my county. In this case, the below is near Tyndall AFB. Its very affordable at $950 a month considering the starting wage is at least $15 an hour for fast food.
.
.
Very reasonable these days.
2032
Blue
2023 May 6, 2:47pm
Eman says
Why do you suspect there wont be any more printing, I suspect 'QE' would continue under different forms some of them may not be very obvious. Eventually hidden inflation will catch up and pushes stuff like RE and stocks etc. Look at recent banks, ideally they must book losses and close them in free market system but gov is pumping from thin air and covering their irresponsibility which is a form of delayed inflation. As I said before cash is always trash. Gov inflation numbers are always fake and comical and not applicable to so many places. By the way I am not suggesting to invest toxic urban RE.
I don’t believe real estate return in the next decade will be anything like the last decade.
Why do you suspect there wont be any more printing, I suspect 'QE' would continue under different forms some of them may not be very obvious. Eventually hidden inflation will catch up and pushes stuff like RE and stocks etc. Look at recent banks, ideally they must book losses and close them in free market system but gov is pumping from thin air and covering their irresponsibility which is a form of delayed inflation. As I said before cash is always trash. Gov inflation numbers are always fake and comical and not applicable to so many places. By the way I am not suggesting to invest toxic urban RE.
2033
mell
2023 May 6, 3:04pm
Blue says
Agree with this. But since the QE benefits the rich disproportionally, the renters, usually middle or lower middle-class or gov dependent (yes, there are upper middle class, upper class and uber wealthy renters, but I peg them at 20% max), rents will not rise as fast as house prices imo.
Eman says
I don’t believe real estate return in the next decade will be anything like the last decade.
Why do you suspect there wont be any more printing, I suspect 'QE' would continue under different forms some of them may not be very obvious. Eventually hidden inflation will catch up and pushes stuff like RE and stocks etc. Look at recent banks, ideally they must book losses and close them in free market system but gov is pumping from thin air and covering their irresponsibility which is a form of delayed inflation. As I said before cash is always trash. Gov inflation numbers are always fake and comical and not applicable to so many places. By the way I am not suggesting to invest toxic urban RE.
Agree with this. But since the QE benefits the rich disproportionally, the renters, usually middle or lower middle-class or gov dependent (yes, there are upper middle class, upper class and uber wealthy renters, but I peg them at 20% max), rents will not rise as fast as house prices imo.
2034
Eman
2023 May 6, 3:44pm
Eman
2023 May 6, 3:44pm
Blue says
From where I sit, prices/valuations are frothy. The markets need a reset. I don’t know when the reset will happen, but I expect one for valuations to comeback in-line before the markets can move significantly higher. Alternatively, the markets can continue to chug along with mediocre return in the coming years and decade.
As someone who have been buying and selling real estate every year since 2008, I haven’t bought anything in 2023. Numbers just don’t pencil out although I see some deals going down with numbers that make sense. At the moment, low inventory is helping to hold up prices. The risk/reward is not there in most cases.
Just my 2 cents.
Eman says
I don’t believe real estate return in the next decade will be anything like the last decade.
Why do you suspect there wont be any more printing, I suspect 'QE' would continue under different forms some of them may not be very obvious. Eventually hidden inflation will catch up and pushes stuff like RE and stocks etc. Look at recent banks, ideally they must book losses and close them in free market system but gov is pumping from thin air and covering their irresponsibility which is a form of delayed inflation. As I said before cash is always trash. Gov inflation numbers are always fake and comical and not applicable to so many places. By the way I am not suggesting to invest toxic urban RE.
From where I sit, prices/valuations are frothy. The markets need a reset. I don’t know when the reset will happen, but I expect one for valuations to comeback in-line before the markets can move significantly higher. Alternatively, the markets can continue to chug along with mediocre return in the coming years and decade.
As someone who have been buying and selling real estate every year since 2008, I haven’t bought anything in 2023. Numbers just don’t pencil out although I see some deals going down with numbers that make sense. At the moment, low inventory is helping to hold up prices. The risk/reward is not there in most cases.
Just my 2 cents.
2035
Eman
2023 May 6, 3:53pm
Eman
2023 May 6, 3:53pm
Blue says
There are two types of paper the banks are holding: 1) AFS (available for sale). These must be marked-to-market from a valuation POV; thus, the unrealized losses are real, and the banks are required to hold reserves for them, and 2) HTM (held to maturity), not mark-to-market; thus, no reserves are required.
Most banks hold HTM paper. Why should they book the losses? Say they lent money out at 3% for a 5 or 10-year ARM. These loans will balloon and reset themselves by maturity. Some of them, in fact, will mature sooner as the borrowers sell the assets or refinance due to their own circumstances. Banks just earn less money during this time.
Bank run was what caused these banks to fail recently.
Look at recent banks, ideally they must book losses and close them in free market system but gov is pumping from thin air and covering their irresponsibility which is a form of delayed inflation.
There are two types of paper the banks are holding: 1) AFS (available for sale). These must be marked-to-market from a valuation POV; thus, the unrealized losses are real, and the banks are required to hold reserves for them, and 2) HTM (held to maturity), not mark-to-market; thus, no reserves are required.
Most banks hold HTM paper. Why should they book the losses? Say they lent money out at 3% for a 5 or 10-year ARM. These loans will balloon and reset themselves by maturity. Some of them, in fact, will mature sooner as the borrowers sell the assets or refinance due to their own circumstances. Banks just earn less money during this time.
Bank run was what caused these banks to fail recently.
2036
Eman
2023 May 6, 3:58pm
Eman
2023 May 6, 3:58pm
mell says
I expect this to happen as well regardless people like it or not. The premium to own real estate will continue to get wider. However, valuations seem frothy at the moment to me so I expect, or shall I say I believe, a high chance of a reset to happen. However, as I mentioned above, chugging along, or moving sideways, for years or a decade, is another way of a reset, or let valuations get somewhat in-line before prices getting out of line again.
Agree with this. But since the QE benefits the rich disproportionally, the renters, usually middle or lower middle-class or gov dependent (yes, there are upper middle class, upper class and uber wealthy renters, but I peg them at 20% max), rents will not rise as fast as house prices imo.
I expect this to happen as well regardless people like it or not. The premium to own real estate will continue to get wider. However, valuations seem frothy at the moment to me so I expect, or shall I say I believe, a high chance of a reset to happen. However, as I mentioned above, chugging along, or moving sideways, for years or a decade, is another way of a reset, or let valuations get somewhat in-line before prices getting out of line again.
2037
GNL
2023 May 6, 4:15pm
GNL
2023 May 6, 4:15pm
mell says
I can easily sew this being true. Does anyone doubt tech and AI will continue to kill the middle class on down the chain? If I understand correctly, the Hollywood writers strike has something to do with AI doing the job of writers and then the writers becoming editors to AI.
Agree with this. But since the QE benefits the rich disproportionally, the renters, usually middle or lower middle-class or gov dependent (yes, there are upper middle class, upper class and uber wealthy renters, but I peg them at 20% max), rents will not rise as fast as house prices imo.
I can easily sew this being true. Does anyone doubt tech and AI will continue to kill the middle class on down the chain? If I understand correctly, the Hollywood writers strike has something to do with AI doing the job of writers and then the writers becoming editors to AI.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.