patrick.net

Been watching Palm Bay, FL for a while. A couple of months ago, there was NOTHING under $250k unless it was a Fire or a Foreclosure or a Manufactured with major issues. Speaking of which, I'm seeing a lot more foreclosures now.

Now there's a shitton of houses going under $250k and it looks like the lot-by-lot builders (not the community developers) are now at $269k.

"Starting in the $350's" billboards turned into "Starting in the $300s" on my weekly trip.

Orlando is in full reverso mode with panicking multi-fam. Tens of thousands of new units are coming onboard this year and thousands already did, and now there's a glut. Disney-proximal AirBNB Zero Lot "investors" are panicking as well.

Orlando is pretty much capped and state wide inventory is normalizing. Sanity is about to be restored.

HeadSet says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

This also explains how the GSEs get their funding, for those of you still confused.

You still have to acquire money before you can loan it out.

They have $5 trillion in assets collectively. They just bundle them up and sell them to investors. They then use the cash to buy more, then rinse & repeat

All of this is well documented. They have been doing this for decades. What is so hard to understand about it?

George Gammon explains the coming disaster with the GSEs entering the second mortgage market:

https://youtu.be/Z_aB0FIouaQ?si=R-C7IVJXUtQ42NGx

I predict that property taxes will, at some point, go to the moon.

GNL says

I predict that property taxes will, at some point, go to the moon.

As in, it will be cheaper to live on the moon than in a McMansion?

PeopleUnited says

As in, it will be cheaper to live on the moon than in a McMansion?

McMansions will become multi-family dwellings.

HeadSet says

McMansions will become multi-family dwellings.

That is true especially on Long Island New York.

You see this in towns like in Franklin Square where at least the basement is converted to an apartment and is rented whereas the rental income covers the carrying or operating and maintenance costs like property taxes and insurance.

Not somewhat also uncommon in Florida panhandle where a 3 bedroom townhome (within 2 miles of the beach) is shared by 3 roommates.

.

There's a realtor on Instagram who is constantly talking about and showing DC area townhomes in the Million plus range and how renting out the basement can help you get financing. I get it but, who wants to make it one day to where you can buy a million + home but have to share it? Doesn't make sense to me.

One of the reasons people feel so insecure is you’ve got in the background, behind the curtain, a lot of these financial games that ultimately are making the very rich richer, and hurting America’s working and middle class. All of the people who were supplying Red Lobster, all of the people who are essentially providing services to Red Lobster, the small businesses in the communities affected by mass layoffs, they are next in line, they are experiencing the ripple effect. - Robert Reich, Former Labor Secretary

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/private-equity-rolled-red-lobster-180041614.html

It all comes back to FIAT. Truly money for nothing.

The above is mostly nonsense. The open border is much much much worse financially than private equity asset stripping. Total BS. You can do that as the owner of a company, no need for wall street. You pay yourself handsomely while you run the company into the ground. People who don't trust their management should work elsewhere or look into working for coops. Lastly there are laws test limit the amount of destruction you can do.to a company before being held liable. Maybe we should explore more coops, but they come with their own drawbacks. Imagine the infighting between woke and based workers who all have a stake and a vote in the company. Nothing would get done, worse than asset stripping. Plenty of CEOs making their company and employees pretty wealthy as well. There is no magic alternative form and nobody forces the owners to sell to private equity except for their own greed. The open border is where 90% of the money is wasted, from crime to free healthcare and pressure on rents, housing prices etc. Wall Street vultures have existed since Wall Street has, and yet the US had some of its most prosperous times with Wall Street.

mell says

The open border is where 90% of the money is wasted, from crime to free healthcare and pressure on rents, housing prices etc.

Worse still, the people crossing the border are a long-term problem that will get even worse with time. The current problems are nothing compared to what taxpayers will face 20 years from now.

GNL says

I predict that property taxes will, at some point, go to the moon.

People recently buying shacks in my neighborhood already have taxes to the moon. $31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft. That pales compared to the $160k/year interest on their mortgage, but still.

mell says

The open border is where 90% of the money is wasted, from crime to free healthcare and pressure on rents, housing prices etc.

There is a video of Chuck Schumer out there saying that he wants to make dream of 11 million illegal migrants come true.

FHFA Publishes New Product Notice for Freddie Mac Second Mortgage Proposal
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
4/16/2024
Washington, D.C. – Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) sent to the Federal Register a notice of a proposed new product from Freddie Mac to begin purchasing certain single-family closed-end second mortgages.

“The proposed activity is intended to provide homeowners with a cost-effective alternative for accessing the equity in their homes,” said FHFA Director Sandra L. Thompson. “Reviewing and considering comments from the public will be a critical component of our review as the Agency exercises its statutory responsibility to evaluate new Enterprise products.”

Freddie Mac proposes to purchase closed-end second mortgages on properties for which it already holds the first mortgage. FHFA has determined this to be a new product that merits public notice and comment about whether it is in the public interest.

FHFA invites interested parties to provide written feedback on the proposed new product. Comments may be submitted via FHFA’s website or by email to RegComments@fhfa.gov .

Once the Federal Register publishes the notice, a statutory 30-day comment period begins. After that 30-day period has ended, FHFA has a statutory 30-day period to make a final decision as to whether to approve the proposed new product.

https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Publishes-New-Product-Notice-for-Freddie-Mac-Second-Mortgage-Proposal.aspx

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

“The proposed activity is intended to provide homeowners with a cost-effective alternative for accessing the equity in their homes,”

The only way to extract equity from a home is to sell it. What the FHFA clowns are really talking about are LOANS that must be qualified for that happen to use the house as collateral. Loans that must be paid back with interest.

SunnyvaleCA says

$31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft.

Which city in California is this in? I have friends who live in Corona, California. Beautiful weather most day of the year but I wonder if the taxes are worth it? Both are physicians, make good money, so money is not an issue for them.

I live in Cleveland, Ohio, weather sucks. So, good weather is valuable to me. Hope to move on from here but not sure where. I guess we will follow our kid to the city where he gets his job and decides to live, there is nothing like family, even the best weather pales in comparison.

HeadSet says

What the FHFA clowns are really talking about are LOANS that must be qualified for that happen to use the house as collateral. Loans that must be paid back with interest.

Yes, it serves the bankers’ interests. More loan issuance. But the homeowner? Cards maxed out, getting slayed by inflation, suck dry the equity via a second mortgage, default, lose home. Buh bye.

gabbar says

SunnyvaleCA says

$31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft.

Which city in California is this in? I have friends who live in Corona, California. Beautiful weather most day of the year but I wonder if the taxes are worth it? Both are physicians, make good money, so money is not an issue for them.

I live in Cleveland, Ohio, weather sucks. So, good weather is valuable to me. Hope to move on from here but not sure where. I guess we will follow our kid to the city where he gets his job and decides to live, there is nothing like family, even the best weather pales in comparison.

Likely Sunnyvale as the handle ;) When I moved to the bay area for the first time decades ago the highlander apartments on Iris were my first place to stay. Had a pretty hot goth/light bdsm chick who was training to become a firefighter as roommate. Ahh the memories. All you need in the south bay in your youth is a place with a pool and BBQ

SunnyvaleCA says

People recently buying shacks in my neighborhood already have taxes to the moon. $31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft. That pales compared to the $160k/year interest on their mortgage, but still.

Sunnyvale, do you think they made a large downpayment from their RSU's?

https://rudy.substack.com/p/we-fought-steins-law

https://nypost.com/2024/06/05/real-estate/number-of-us-homes-for-sale-is-slowly-returning-to-normal-an-incredible-trend-economists-say/

The number of US homes for sale is slowly returning to normal

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-begin-to-come-down-in-pandemic-boomtowns-like-austin-tampa-090042087.html

Home prices begin to come down in pandemic boomtowns like Austin, Tampa

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-begin-to-come-down-in-pandemic-boomtowns-like-austin-tampa-090042087.html

Home prices begin to come down in pandemic boomtowns like Austin, Tampa

Because most retired boomers with the ability to move did so already from northern states. Tampa is kind of shitty for Florida in my opinion. It's geezerville. Bland for FL and a bunch of dickhead New Yorkers.

I don't see Austin having a big downturn unless it's really gotten that overrun by Californians and native Texans want to get away from it. Though I think that's already happened. It's the Nashville of the South. Tourist shit hole. They already had massive homelessness 15 years ago. One of the few cities I've been to a lot in Texas for work. Haven't been in a while and no intentions to again.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/we-fought-steins-law

According to Melody Wright, delinquencies are now where they were in 2006.

https://youtu.be/P76tDfH1Sbg?si=TMgiXRiy3PYBgBSz

Where exactly does Brylski live?

GNL says

Where exactly does Brylski live?

In a $1.1 million home in New Orleans. She says it is $15,000 a year to insure. I think that is very high rate (around 1.5% of the home (replacement) value).

In the Florida panhandle I think the insurance annual rate is 0.6% of the home value.

https://www.fox8live.com/2024/06/19/new-orleans-woman-says-soaring-insurance-forcing-her-sell-11-million-uptown-home/

.

AD says

In a $1.1 million home in New Orleans. She says it is $15,000 a year to insure. I think that is very high rate (around 1.5% of the home (replacement) value).

Insurers are raising rates a lot, lately.

I have a friend in Fort Myers Florida. He’s going without insurance on a 450k home. Last week, the floods were almost to his front door literally.

He bought it as a foreclosure right before the hurricane hit. He had no insurance at that time also. He don’t care because the home needed renovations anyway. So far, he’s dodged 2 bullets.

gabbar says

SunnyvaleCA says

$31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft.

Which city in California is this in?

In Sunnyvale within walking distance to Apple's new spaceship campus.
Here's a recent example: https://www.zillow.com/homes/1448-dove-lane-94087_rb/19614150_zpid/

B.A.C.A.H. says

SunnyvaleCA says

People recently buying shacks in my neighborhood already have taxes to the moon. $31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft. That pales compared to the $160k/year interest on their mortgage, but still.

Sunnyvale, do you think they made a large downpayment from their RSU's?

Either a large downpayment from RSUs or from their parents. I think some people think this is like earlier times when a good strategy was to buy a house when mortgage prices were high (driving down house prices), struggle with the mortgage for a few years, and finally re-finance when interest rates are low and house prices zoom. This worked out well for me when I bought in 2004; original interest rate was something like 6% and I refinanced as low as 1.875% (I had several different 5/1 ARMs over time) while the price of the house shot up 4x. On the other hand, Apple stock price has shot up 100x.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

AD says

In a $1.1 million home in New Orleans. She says it is $15,000 a year to insure. I think that is very high rate (around 1.5% of the home (replacement) value).

Insurers are raising rates a lot, lately.

It’s crazy how much they have gone up, the actual rate/valuation percentage has more than doubled for us: 2017 was 0.213%, 2024 is 0.433%.

ForcedTQ says

It’s crazy how much they have gone up, the actual rate/valuation percentage has more than doubled for us: 2017 was 0.213%, 2024 is 0.433

This...along with property taxes.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

This...along with property taxes.

My yearly house property tax recently increased by $2000. Just part of inflation, as is the increase in property insurance. The county has to pay more for employees, materials, and contactors and the insurance companies have to pay inflated material and labor costs to settle claims.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/06/21/home-sales-sag-further-hit-by-mortgage-rates-price-reductions-active-listings-surge-median-price-skewed-higher-by-surge-in-high-end-sales/

Around here, there is a shortage of home listed because people do not want to sell their homes. One major reason is this example:

Current home, $1,000,000 mortgage at 2% has a monthly payment of $3,696.
Downsize home, $750,000 mortgage at 7% has a monthly payment of $4,990.

Moving to a smaller home at today's interest rates actually can increase the monthly nut and that is after costs like realtor commission and loan origination fees.