patrick.net

WookieMan says

Anything else will be a condo where I don't have to do shit after 60-65. Probably a 2/2 in a fun/warm area. Bounce back in the summer/hurricane season to IL.

You all sound like a great buyer for Island Reserve in Panama City Beach. I think it is about 15 hours driving time to Chicago from there. It will be frigid in March in Chicago and it will be low to mid 70s in Panama City Beach, warm enough for beach weather.

Almost 9 months beach weather in Panama City Beach compared to 10.5 months in South Florida.

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zzyzzx says

Last October, Hernandez’s mortgage rate jumped by 2% to 5.125%, the maximum allowed in the first adjustment year

Sounds like year 2008, but at least in 2008 it was 2% ARM verses 5% Fixed — tough to say no to that 3 point difference. Getting a 2% verses 3% fixed in 2016 doesn't make much sense. Lock in 3% forever.

SunnyvaleCA says

Sounds like year 2008, but at least in 2008 it was 2% ARM verses 5% Fixed — tough to say no to that 3 point difference. Getting a 2% verses 3% fixed in 2016 doesn't make much sense. Lock in 3% forever.

We locked in a 3% fixed rate for a Veteran Affairs 30 year mortgage in summer 2016, and yes we were tempted by the rates offered in Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs).

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WookieMan says

Most people don't need more than a 3/2.5. 2k sq. ft is about all people need in most situations, especially with a basement in our area. We're going 4/4.5, 2,400 sq. ft. Last home we're doing with kids. Anything else will be a condo where I don't have to do shit after 60-65. Probably a 2/2 in a fun/warm area. Bounce back in the summer/hurricane season to IL.

True, but in places like Florida, etc, that don't have basements or attics, a 2000 sq ft house probably doesn't work since they have literally NO storage space.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

Most people don't need more than a 3/2.5. 2k sq. ft is about all people need in most situations, especially with a basement in our area. We're going 4/4.5, 2,400 sq. ft. Last home we're doing with kids. Anything else will be a condo where I don't have to do shit after 60-65. Probably a 2/2 in a fun/warm area. Bounce back in the summer/hurricane season to IL.

True, but in places like Florida, etc, that don't have basements or attics, a 2000 sq ft house probably doesn't work since they have literally NO storage space.

It all depends on how many clothes the wife has

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/04/whats-the-cost-of-mortgage-rate-buydowns-and-other-incentives-to-homebuilders-lennar-discloses-the-numbers/

What’s the Cost of Mortgage-Rate Buydowns and Other Incentives to Homebuilders? Lennar Discloses the Numbers

In the first half of 2024, the average incentive costs, including the costs of mortgage-rate buydowns, rose to $47,100 per house sold, or to 10.1% of the average sales price, up from 9.2% a year ago.

The costs of those incentives vary by market. In Texas, they reached 16.9% or $51,600 per house. In “Other” regions, which include Florida, they amounted to 13.4%, or $81,700 per house

And that is why newly built homes are outselling used homes. Duh.

Not a sustainable practice though, one would think.

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Apartment owners are reported to be next as far as real estate defaulting. I noticed rents in Panama City Beach have held steady for the last 2 to 3 years essentially. A 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome within 2 miles of the beach still rents between $2000 and $2200, the same it was back in 2021.

If rent goes down (or does not rise much each year) for these townhomes, then the landlord investors are willing to offer a lower price to buy these townhomes.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/apartments-could-next-real-estate-200023675.html

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"That could be a big problem for investors like Tides Equities, a real estate investment firm based in Los Angeles that bet big on multifamily properties in the Sun Belt. Just a few years ago, Tides Equities owned about $2 billion worth of apartment buildings. That figure quickly grew to $6.5 billion. Now, as rents and prices for those apartments fall, the firm is struggling to make loan payments and cover operating expenses, according to CRED iQ.

Executives at Tides Equities did not respond to requests for comment.

All that said, apartment buildings are likely to be on stronger financial footing than offices, for instance. That’s because multifamily units can be financed by lending from the government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which Congress created to make housing more affordable."

in idaho out here, a lot of people moved in which spiked sales a lot. it keeps going. however interesting enough flippers see losses. 4 different guys who came here tried flipping, 3 lost money and one made very little. no one buys flips here, mainly new construction.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

I'm sorry I didn't invest more into Idaho. Its such a landlord friendly state. I miss the Sawtooths so much

Back to 2015 inventory levels in Orlando, Tampa.

RedStar says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

I'm sorry I didn't invest more into Idaho. Its such a landlord friendly state. I miss the Sawtooths so much

it’s pricey here, but as landlord there isn’t appreciation or serious income. frequent tenant turn over. people who rent have very little income. all the wealthy moved to towns by grand tetons and sun valley.

AmericanKulak says

Back to 2015 inventory levels in Orlando, Tampa.

I hate Orlando and Tampa, so I could see them not being popular. It's the FL ghetto in my opinion. Wife wants to try different parts of FL and I just don't dig it. Jacksonville is a shit hole as well.

Problem is it's not a buyers market until you hit 6 months. The housing bust was 12+ months in many locations. I think at one point our neighborhood we sold the most in got up to 15 months inventory. Got a far way to go for a housing bust. Then they'll just drop interest rates, inflation be damned. I don't think we'll see 2005-2009 again in any of our lifetimes. That was more about lending standards and over building. I don't see either still.

WookieMan says

I hate Orlando and Tampa, so I could see them not being popular. It's the FL ghetto in my opinion. Wife wants to try different parts of FL and I just don't dig it. Jacksonville is a shit hole as well.

Agreed. Orlando never impressed me the first time I saw it as a kid, it was all sprawly. Now it's worse thanks to waves of "internal migration" as well as "international migration". When I see a Kia I keep at least 4 car lengths away. Kias and Beamers. The Greenbelt went out further and further until to live in anything like the edge, you're an hour out as the car drives over high traffic congested highways.

I never liked Tampa, it's actually the wokest, bluest city in Florida, full of retired Minnesota/Winsconsin UltraLeft Schoolmarms on one hand and Methheads on the other. People pick on Miami, but Miami has based Cubans and right wing rich people in big numbers to balance things; Tampa does not. That's why Tampa had a Soros-backed DA, soft on BLM riots, and DeSantis went after the DA and got the "Freedom to Escape Riots in Cars and shoot within 100 feet during riots" bill passed.

Sadly, the "Wild West" part of the South florida East Counties got developed like mad in the past 20 years. I remember my HS Girlfriend's was at the edge of the Savannah, there was a gas station on the main road just before turning on to her street, and beyond that to the West, nothing but the very occasional small modest new house, maybe 1-2/block.

I don't just mean Broward, but like St Lucie. I'm not paying $300k for a 20 year old 1400 sq ft that sits 45 minutes as the car drives in traffic from the beach. Same shit happened in Deltona, western Volusia County : it was a ruralish-retreat, but in the past 20 years is overdeveloped and packed with migrants living 10 to a 4 bedroom. Lee County is now getting Volusia'd.

Went to visit friends who are in the area, and what was once the wild, panther growling wilderness was wall-to-wall I-95 spawl with at least a dozen traffic lights and congestion up the ass.

I should drive over and check out the wild Panhandle-to-Pot area counties like Levy and Dixie, but I don't know the Meth situation there.

I like the FL-GA border west of Jax but well east of Tallahassee, up the Lake City / Osecola National Forest area. Unfortunately not in the cards due to child visitation difficulty. That area never gets hit by any substantial hurricanes and you can still find 5 acres and less zoning restrictions. Also you get a nice "Fall" season December-March.

The Villages are full of elderly drunks and and grandma swingers, as is Tampa, although Tampa has meth heads.

AmericanKulak says

I don't just mean Broward, but like St Lucie. I'm not paying $300k for a 20 year old 1400 sq ft that sits 45 minutes as the car drives in traffic from the beach. Same shit happened in Deltona, western Volusia County

try the best place on Earth ... its the American Riviera ... the Florida panhandle...

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HeadSet says

Around here, there is a shortage of home listed because people do not want to sell their homes. One major reason is this example:

Current home, $1,000,000 mortgage at 2% has a monthly payment of $3,696.
Downsize home, $750,000 mortgage at 7% has a monthly payment of $4,990.

Moving to a smaller home at today's interest rates actually can increase the monthly nut and that is after costs like realtor commission and loan origination fees.

It's kind of like that here in California. Because the properties are mostly only reassessed upon sale (*).

If the zillow numbers are correct, a new neighbor on my street has an assessment of 1.05 M with annual tax bill of $15,000, for a 3/2 1200 sq ft 1970 construction with a bit of lipstick on the pig. A few doors away our assessment on 4/2 is about 350k with a tax bill of about $6000 (just a pig, no lipstick).

(*) Major renovations or improvements can cause the place to be reassessed without a change of ownership. Before s/he "went silent" on this blog BayArea shared about something like that happening, or threatened by a county agent to happen, after he upgraded his recent TriValley home. I know someone else, also in Alameda County, who had that happen.

AD says

try the best place on Earth ... its the American Riviera ... the Florida panhandle...

Too far to drive every weekend to Central FL. :(