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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   596,616 views  5,504 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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5499   WookieMan   2024 Oct 20, 12:14pm  

HeadSet says

So, you are saying that at today's labor rates that would be a wash?

Like I said, make it look pretty. Lipstick on a pig. People surprisingly get over dated interiors. But they won't look at the place if the photo look like shit. @GNL could like attest to this. I can from being a broker and semi professional photographer. I know the data.

The last photo Ceffer posted would take 2 people a weekend to clean up the outside. All MLS' that I know of require the first photo to be the exterior or you're fined. Your first impression is fucked and no one looks at the place. You need showings. Everyone would scroll past that photo.

I'd look at the property as an investment, but I'd come in $200K lower even with high CA prices. I did that with my current house and it paid off.
5500   SoTex   2024 Oct 20, 12:26pm  

Looks like it's a myth, or better known as BS:

https://www.keithmessickarchitecture.com/blog-data/2015/1/16/property-taxes

"There are lots of myths in residential design and construction. One of the strongest, most entrenched, is the "leave one wall standing" myth. The premise of this myth is that if one wall is left standing, the project can be classified as a remodel, as opposed to new construction, and it will result in lower property taxes. Unfortunately, this is not true."

I have an uncle who was an airline pilot in the early 80s (and later) who moved from the SF bay area to Houston to be near the Continental hub or whatever. Pilots have a lot of free time so he started building and selling huge houses in Spring Texas during his time off.

I was a little kid but I remember walking around in one of them and him saying, "I couldn't do this shit in CA", even back then it sucked apparently.
5501   WookieMan   2024 Oct 20, 12:52pm  

SoTex says

I was a little kid but I remember walking around in one of them and him saying, "I couldn't do this shit in CA", even back then it sucked apparently.

There are loopholes and they get fixed quickly. I'm finding one out now and going after my village attorney for bull shit. So now he's charging the village to change the ordinance.

My advice is network or have a family member that is an attorney. Pays bigly if they're good. Told them my sister was an attorney for a certain city just last week. Boom, everything got done that I needed. Also my dad had a reputation with municipalities while he was alive. #asshole.
5502   Blue   2024 Oct 20, 1:56pm  

SoTex says

If I remember correctly I think in CA you can tear down to the foundation, leave one wall up, extend, rebuild whatever and your property taxes will not be effected?

I know one anecdotal evidence when attended to housewarming ceremony of relatively wealthy family. Found one big patch at the back of the new house. Later, I saw a related message on this site from Eman that house to be build with two work orders with interesting wording that should keep 1978 Prop 13 tax! That patch can be fixed with second work order.
5503   WookieMan   2024 Oct 20, 2:09pm  

Blue says

I know one anecdotal evidence when attended to housewarming ceremony of relatively wealthy family. Found one big patch at the back of the new house. Later, I saw a related message on this site from Eman that house to be build with two work orders with interesting wording that should keep 1978 Prop 13 tax! That patch can be fixed with second work order.

At some point your guys state is going bankrupt. It's a when not if. You haven't had the full exodus yet. It's almost weekly I hear of a big celebrity leaving. That's not small tax dollars at 13% on the top end.

You could be a doctor, IT or nurse in Iowa or Arkansas for a fraction of the cost with the same pay. Money saved, you travel more. Problem solved. Cheaper house, money saved. Just fly to the beach monthly with the $4k/mo you could save. Or mountains. I highly doubt working people have that much time to enjoy the CA weather. Especially with kids.

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