patrick.net

Because of Halloween, here is a terrifying moment for Finns.

My father (Swedish Norwegian) whose parents immigrated from the old country said the Finns were the fiercest and most feared Scandi drunks and liked to fight in bars with knives. I have no idea if there is a reality behind that, but he also indicated that we could have some Laplander in the woodshed. So along with the Laplander and half Irish, maybe I am more than 50 percent subhuman.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/21/mortgage-rates-explode-to-6-82-10-year-treasury-yield-jumps-to-4-20-55-basis-points-since-monster-rate-cut/

If you care about interest rates, you're likely below middle class. Even middle class. I give no shits about rates. I get what I want.

Last weekend a Sierra Foothills friend of mine told me her homeowners' policy was cancelled this summer. She found another policy but the premiums are higher. (Till they also cancel).

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low

Existing-home sales drew back in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of four major U.S. regions registered sales declines while the West experienced a sales bounce. Year-over-year, sales fell in three regions but grew in the West.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 1.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.5% (down from 3.98 million in September 2023).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of September was 1.39 million units, up 1.5% from August and 23.0% from one year ago (1.13 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.2 months in August and 3.4 months in September 2023.
emphasis added

The sales rate was below the consensus forecast (but at housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).

Sales in September (3.84 million SAAR) were down 1.0% from the previous month and were 3.5% below the September 2023 sales rate.

Housing Inventory Increased in September

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.39 million in September from 1.37 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 23.0% year-over-year (blue) in September compared to September 2023. Months of supply (red) increased to 4.3 months in September from 4.2 months the previous month.

Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in September 2019 months-of-supply was at 4.0 months, so there is more supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory has declined significantly compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales declined 3.5% year-over-year compared to September 2023. This was the thirty-seventh consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased

B.A.C.A.H. says

Sierra Foothills

Beautiful country, significant fire risk.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-in-september-fall-to-lowest-level-since-2010-151911420.html

Existing home sales in September fall to lowest level since 2010

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-in-september-fall-to-lowest-level-since-2010-151911420.html

Existing home sales in September fall to lowest level since 2010

Nooooooooo!