patrick.net

I was doing a Cap Rate estimate for a friend of mine's Panama City Beach townhome (3 bedroom/2.5 bath/2 car garage/built in 2017)

I figured your Cap(italization) Rate for your unit on $2200 rent/month on a sales price of 75% of its historic market price (set in early 2022) is AT LEAST 4.78%.

I'm noticing a lot of liquidity or sales volume for all over Florida (within my search of Zillow) for prices at 75% of all time price levels.

I am putting a spreadsheet together (along with a local rent to household income graph) in regards to this, and a News Herald journalist invited me to submit a guest column, but I'm honestly too fearful I may step on toes (like very big toes at the Central Panhandle Association of Realtors).

I used 75% (to all-time high of $335K) to take into account the seller covering most of the closing costs, etc.

[ { ($2,200 gross - $1,200 costs) x 12 } / (75% x $335,000) ] x 100% = ? ? ?

($12,000 / $251250) x 100% = 4.78%

I figure 8.78% annual ROI after adding 4% historical annual increase in townhome value, which is TAX FREE (via straight line depreciation, 1033 swap and then move into unit for 2 years to realize capital gains tax break of at least $250K)

I have the Professor Robert Shiller data that shows historical annual appreciation of 4% since the 1950s.

estimated $1,200 month/expenses :
$450: HOA fee
$400: prop tax and insurance
$150: M&R ( maint+repair includes 20 yr floor replacement, appliance replacement, etc )
$200: Century 21 Commander Realty property manager (or an equivalent LLC prop mgr)

.

A couple each earning $18/hour in the hospitality and service industry (or working for one of the major hospitals) could afford $2200/month rent for the townhome mentioned in my previous post #5872 and not pay more than around 35% of gross household income for rent.

The townhome community has some amenities like clubhouse, gym, pool, and its gated.

And its within 15 minutes of drive (with traffic congestion) of the beach's epicenter for hospitality and service jobs.

.

AD says

A couple each earning $18/hour in the hospitality and service industry (or working for one of the major hospitals) could afford $2200/month rent for the townhome mentioned in my previous post #5872 and not pay more than around 35% of gross household income for rent.

So about a little less than half their income on rent after tax and payroll tax on housing. On the $2500 that remains, they have to pay for a car, gas, insurance, renter's insurance, at least $100-200/month health care for their employee portion assuming no illnesses and they have excellent health care field and not shitty hospitality employer coverage, price of eggs, milk, etc.

And somehow also save $40k for a downpayment on a house.

Or they can forget the American dream despite being DINKs and have to take a bus to go shopping and to work like a Europoor from the 60s.

Lowered Expectations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZi41b1zcIU

Once upon a single 20-year old HS grad with a job but without a car was considered a total loser.

And yet, productivity has skyrocketed.

AmericanKulak says

So about a little less than half their income on rent before tax and payroll tax on housing. On the $2500 that remains, they have to pay for a car, gas, insurance, renter's insurance, at least $100-200/month health care for their employee portion assuming no illnesses and they have excellent health care field and not shitty hospitality employer coverage, price of eggs, milk, etc.

$6,120 gross household income per month ($18/hr for each member of the couple)
$5,202 assumed net household income (worst case is 15% total effective tax rate since no Florida state income tax)
$3,002 assume net household income after rent

I think likely I'm low balling at $18 per hour wage rate based on what I've first hand observed such as in my townhome HOA.

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AD says

$6,120 gross household income per month ($18/hr for each member of the couple)

18*40=720
720*4=2880
2880*2=5760

5760*.85 (which is a Way Too Low estimate of tax/payroll for DINK being only 15%)=$4900

$4900-$2200= $2700
$2700 - supergenerous only $200/month/couple employee share health care cost = $2500

No Car, Grocery, FPL, phone, utillities factored in yet.

AmericanKulak says

$6,120 gross household income per month ($18/hr for each member of the couple)

18*40=720
720*4=2880
2880*2=5760

5760*.85 (which is a Way Too Low estimate of tax/payroll for DINK being only 15%)=$4900

$4900-$2200= $2700
$2700 - supergenerous only $200/month/couple employee share health care cost = $2500

No Car, Grocery, FPL, phone, utillities factored in yet.

$18 per hour per person x 2 people x 2040 hours per year = $73,440 per year (or $6,210 per month)

Walmart Front Beach Road gives at least 2 weeks vacation time from what I was told for its +30 hours per week employees from what I was told by neighbors

utilities (electric, water/sewer, internet) : $250 per month
2 cell phones: $50 a month
groceries: $500 a month
used car costs: $350 a month
Walmart covers healthcare costs or its heavily subsidized thru the Affordable Care Act
.

AD says

utilities (electric, water/sewer, internet) : $250 per month
2 cell phones: $50 a month
groceries: $500 a month
used car costs: $350 a month
Walmart covers healthcare costs or its heavily subsidized thru the Affordable Care Act
.

This is a helluva barebones budget for DINKs.

$500/month per person on groceries, right?

About $750 for a couple would be the lowest reasonalbe budget, including all cleaning and hygiene supplies from Windex to Right Guard to Dish Soap to Tampons, digital coupon cutting, never Publix ro Whole Foods, but not mostly Ramen and boxed Mac n' Cheese, with meat and fresh vegetables in most meals. With no alcohol, not even a six-pack, and few snacks. Assuming they only get food out once a week or less.

If they ate like ghetto trash and just subsisted on Great Value soy snacks and Ramen, they might pull $600/month if they were hardcore shoppers about it. They make too much for EBT for sure.

My elderly mom spends $120/week on herself, with the Early Bird specials out 3-4x / week with the girls after Scrabble and the Club House Movie. She also uses grinds twice, second time for decaf and other Depression era tricks, including using rags not paper towels.

My FPL bill is about $150 June-September and $80 the rest of the year for a less than 900 sq ft apt. that gets a breeze from both coast and intercoastal.

My car insurance, with a 2022 mini-SUV, and squeaky clean record is almost $100/month.

$50 for two phones works for people who don't use their phones much, don't mind older phones, and are fine with a few GB/data/month. Which isn't many people under 40.

My friend who has a cute condo in Bradenton FL near Sarasota is having difficulty selling it.

Just after she put it on the market a pesky hurricane came by but spared her neighborhood.

She's lowered the asking price thousands of bucks.

AmericanKulak says

AD says

utilities (electric, water/sewer, internet) : $250 per month
2 cell phones: $50 a month
groceries: $500 a month
used car costs: $350 a month
Walmart covers healthcare costs or its heavily subsidized thru the Affordable Care Act
.

$500/month per person, right?

About $800 for a couple would be the lowest, including all cleaning and hygiene supplies from Windex to Right Guard to Dish Soap, digital coupon cutting, and not mostly Ramen and boxed Mac n' Cheese, with meat and fresh vegetables in many meals. And no alcohol, not even a six-pack, and few snacks. Assuming they only get food out once a week or less.

$500 per couple (or $250/person) for groceries, hygiene and home products

You can go to Dollar Tree (really $1.25 Tree) for shampoo, toothpaste, cleaning supplies, trash bags, etc

Don't go too eccentric on wardrobe, go to TJ Maxx or Ross

My wife and I can make a chicken soup meal (with egg noodles) that only costs $10 at Walmart and it lasts for 3 dinners ($4 in chicken legs, $1.50 carrots, $1.50 yellow onion, $3 miscellaneous) for our household of 3

You can get very cheap beer and wine at Walmart Front Beach Rd ... I saw a 1.5 L of Moscato white wine for around $9,

and $17 for a 24 pack of Miller HIgh Life (which is one of the best American made beer besides Yuengling Lager at $23 for 24 cans)...the beer alone would last me for about 2 to 3 weeks since I would only drink of Friday and Saturday nights

.

AD says

$500 per couple (or $250/person) for groceries, hygiene and home products

No way. I spend $130/week for myself with 2 kids (10 days/month) and I am the DG/Winn-Dixie Points Fu MASTER, use mostly generic, cook most meals from scratch, etc. My kids are pre-teens and don't need so much hygiene products.

Ain't no way you're getting a chick under 40 (or most women period) to buy all their nail polish and shit at dollar stores for $1.25, either. Or everything from Ross. Insist and you'll be a SINK pretty soon. Also, while I buy dish soap, boxed milk, etc. at DG, some shit I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole. RFK will probably have it banned in a few months.

I beat on clothes though, everything comes from Bealls Outlet. It's actually CHEAPER than the thrift stores. Ours is the busiest Bealls Outlet in the country, which means I get kid's shorts for $3.99 and shirts for myself for $4.99 all the time.

AD says

utilities (electric, water/sewer, internet) : $250 per month
2 cell phones: $50 a month
groceries: $500 a month
used car costs: $350 a month
Walmart covers healthcare costs or its heavily subsidized thru the Affordable Care Act

Also: Gas is ~$3/gal, it's $33 to fill a tank once a week or ~$130/month.
And I don't see car insurance.
Used cars almost never have any covered maintenance at all.

Imagine if they had a kid.

That's the reason Florida has a NET outflow of under 40s. The extra $700 they save on Rent is a week's extra pay and the funding of a downpayment stash or 401k/IRA. The beach - and the 90F/90% summers - are no reason to spin wheels endlessly.

AmericanKulak says

Also: Gas is ~$3/gal, it's $33 to fill a tank once a week or ~$130/month.
And I don't see car insurance.
Used cars almost never have any covered maintenance at all.

Imagine if they had a kid.

That's the reason Florida has a NET outflow of under 40s. The extra $700 they save on Rent is a week's extra pay and the funding of a downpayment stash or 401k/IRA. The beach - and the 90F/90% summers - are no reason to spin wheels endlessly.

The car costs of $350 takes into account cheap insurance ~$65, gas (only drive no more than 5 miles to work), maintenance, and $150 a month car payment.

When it gets 90 degrees in Panama City Beach, the relative humidity is usually no more than 55% and please don't ask me to convert this to heat index level, and it's usually beach going weather from 21 February to 21 November here.

There is extra money to be made here in Florida as working 4 hours on Door dash on Friday night will result in net profit of $80 (assume 30 cents a mile expense).

Plus women do well bartending on weekends as I know some that just bartend on Friday nights.

If you have a kid under 18 then you get a subsidy (Earned Income Credit) as a lot of young families do in my townhome neighborhood.

.

AD says

The car costs of $350 takes into account cheap insurance ~$65, gas (only drive no more than 5 miles to work), maintenance, and $150 a month car payment.

Dude, c'mon.

I'm a middle aged squeaky clean driver with a 2022 modest small SUV paying $90/month for me alone.

$150 car payment? In 2010? Much less 2025? You can't get that from Ghetto n' Sons.

A 2010 Honda with 100k+ miles is $280/month with good or better credit
https://www.carvana.com/vehicle/3452524?refSource=srp

2012 Nissan Rogue with almost 60k miles...
https://www.carvana.com/vehicle/3447266?refSource=srp

And that's WITH a downpayment and 72-month term. So very easy to be underwater when the transmission or engine goes when they hit 120k miles a year or two into the 6 year loan. Also no covered oil changes, tire rotations, etc. with a used car.

If DINKS are making everything from scratch at home, never drinking, never having people over, never going out, never going beyond 5 miles from home, never eating out, never never never never, why spin wheels to be near the beach when they can't drop $8 for two ice cream cones on a Saturday. I mean, if they're beach goers I guess ... with a $64k DINK income?

AmericanKulak says

If DINKS are making everything from scratch at home, never drinking, never having people over, never going out, never going beyond 5 miles from home, never eating out, never never never never, why spin wheels to be near the beach when they can't drop $8 for two ice cream cones on a Saturday. I mean, if they're beach goers I guess ... with a $64k DINK income?

Who the hell lives off $64k of income? Especially DINK's. Maybe have some kids and you'll get some more drive/motivation to earn. Never made less than that with my wife since we were 18 (2001). And we both went to college at the same time.

Don't look at expenses. Work smarter not harder. Buy a freezer and then fill it with half a pig and cow. You'll have a years worth of meals and leftovers for roughly $150/mo not including the freezer (one time cost). Then just do a weekly shop and get $50/wk in basics if even that. Family of 5 and we don't even touch $500/mo in groceries generally and no one is hungry.

Also being in FL go fishing and catch your meal for free. We go up to Wisconsin and catch walleye and freeze them and fry them when needed. And have buddies that fish a lot and will just give it away. There are ways to be a cheapskate when it comes to food. Gardening is another biggie and preserving. Fun hobby too. Hard in a condo, but there's ways to grow in small yards.

AmericanKulak says

And that's WITH a downpayment and 72-month term. So very easy to be underwater when the transmission or engine goes when they hit 120k miles a year or two into the 6 year loan. Also no covered oil changes, tire rotations, etc. with a used car.

You'll need new tires at some point. My place, which I think is in most states is Discount Tire. Free rotation. If an oil change is a big expense, then you don't have a local mechanic you can trust. I spend a lot on high milage oil but it's worked well for my current car. I do need exhaust work, but this is at 240k miles. All I'll say is going with a Nissan or Toyota. I know Nissan has a plant in TN, so mostly American made. I don't know what models.

WookieMan says

Who the hell lives off $64k of income?

A lot of retirees, I think.

AD says

AmericanKulak says

So about a little less than half their income on rent before tax and payroll tax on housing. On the $2500 that remains, they have to pay for a car, gas, insurance, renter's insurance, at least $100-200/month health care for their employee portion assuming no illnesses and they have excellent health care field and not shitty hospitality employer coverage, price of eggs, milk, etc.

$6,120 gross household income per month ($18/hr for each member of the couple)
$5,202 assumed net household income (worst case is 15% total effective tax rate since no Florida state income tax)
$3,002 assume net household income after rent

I think likely I'm low balling at $18 per hour wage rate based on what I've first hand observed such as in my townhome HOA.

.

I have a friend in the Fort Myers area who makes $20/hr working for a company named HomeWatch. They check in on people's second homes to make sure there's no water leaks, weeds are tamed, cars are driven etc.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

Who the hell lives off $64k of income?

A lot of retirees, I think.

How and why? They get SS if they want to. Did they not save at all? We're talking dual income. If you paid into SS you'll get $30-40k/yr for a couple if you paid in for 30-40 years a piece. If you put in $500/year or about $45/mo starting out in a Roth when you turn 18, you'll be set and can take gains out after 5 years with no penalty. Increase it as you get older. Then do 401K and hopefully have a decent match.

SS is your daily living and the retirement funds are your funny money. House should be paid off or if you rent that's fine as well. I'd rather own though outright.

Also if you're 22 and can't find a job solo that pays $64k/yr, you're not trying. Dual income? Come on. Those are McDonald's wages. I'm spoiled, but I could pull $120k in a heartbeat after a large work break. I just don't want to deal with people. Coworkers fine, but not customers. So my real estate days are done, for now.

Blake, Glengarry Glen Ross: "I can go out there tonight, with the materials you got, and make $15,000. Can you? Can you?"

Unfortunately the majority of retired use social security as their major retirement income.

The average is $1788 per recipient.

I didn't plan on using social security to provide for my retirement so I'm OK; but I sure know a lot of coupon clippers and people who seek out "early bird" specials.

Nobody 18 ever thought about retirement investing; people tend to "wake up to reality" about 10 years after that age.

I have worked at several companies (although this was decades ago) which did not provide a 401K for their workers. It's probably unusual today however.

WookieMan says

Did they not save at all? We're talking dual income

Correct. A lot of people saved little or nothing. I'm not even referring to people with defined benefit pension plans either. Fiscal responsibility is the exception, not the norm.

AmericanKulak says

Also: Gas is ~$3/gal, it's $33 to fill a tank once a week or ~$130/month.
And I don't see car insurance.
Used cars almost never have any covered maintenance at all.

Imagine if they had a kid.

Here in Silicon Valley, incomes are higher, but so are costs.

Back in the day I worked nights for as many years (7) as I could so we only needed childcare a few hours a day so I could get a bit of sleep. Eventually I had to cave and work days as I'd reached the career ceiling working nights. When that happened, for the most part the childcare bills for one infant and one preschooler consumed the net of my coparent's take home. But at least her continuous max'd contributions to retirement (including social security) were uninterrupted.

I was curious and did some internet searches on current childcare costs in SFBA for infants and toddlers. It's about $30k per year per infant or toddler and sliding scale downward for older kids. In our region anyone who can afford 30K per child is in the 9% state income tax bracket and either 22% or 24% federal.

Since child care expense is on top of all the other living costs, it means to pay $30k per child is on the top of the income and so requires annual income of about $44k per child. Small wonder the SFBA is rapidly becoming an aging childless region.

(Are you paying attention, public teachers' unions?)

The other option is work for government; the median income in the area near DC is double the national median.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Since child care expense is on top of all the other living costs, it means to pay $30k per child is on the top of the income and so requires annual income of about $44k per child. Small wonder the SFBA is rapidly becoming an aging childless region.

So glad to be done with that phase of life. The 4th grade and under years sucked. Yeah I enjoyed it, but you really have to be on top of it. That's why I quit my job though. They then started activities and sports and I enjoy that. I'll go back to full time work in about 2 years. Still working, but it's part time odd job stuff.

Wife travels too much. MIL is a drunk and my mom lives an hour away and my sister is a widow. So tough to ask for help. Fortunately have a solid core of neighbors and friends that can help out in a pinch. But I can work full time. Once my oldest son can drive it will be better.

clambo says

The other option is work for government; the median income in the area near DC is double the national median.

The average salary is at GS 14 step 3 level in the Washington DC metro area, and accounts for legions of "support contractors" as they are the ones that really do the work at the agencies.

About 25 years ago there was a transition whereas federal government civil servants make more than their "support contractor" counterparts.

They started to upgrade positions that were at GS 11 to ultimately GS 13. Notice how DC area housing (including townhomes) changed accordingly.

Now the goal is for "support contractors" to at least get a GS 13 job.

The only exception is for the legal field, whereas lawyers will get the experience working at DOJ or for a federal judge and then go work for a high dollar law firm.

.

AD says

Miller HIgh Life (which is one of the best American made beer besides Yuengling Lager

100% agree, and I thought I was the only one with that opinion. Miller and Yuengling are the only ones with the traditional beer taste. The others have changed over the years to taste like boilermakers or water.

HeadSet says

AD says

Miller HIgh Life (which is one of the best American made beer besides Yuengling Lager

100% agree, and I thought I was the only one with that opinion. Miller and Yuengling are the only ones with the traditional beer taste. The others have changed over the years to taste like boilermakers or water.

Miller High Life yes. Regular Miller or Miller light is bad. MHL used to be my beer of choice 15 years ago.

I can't mix up beer so I'm Busch Light at this point. Not looking to get hammered, just have a decent beer. Not great, but not awful. No headaches ever. On vacation I will sneak in a breakfast beer or two with room service (not at home).

If I get good sleep on the flight tomorrow, Saturday is gonna be one of those days. Hell tomorrow will be somewhat early getting our transfer. Group of 12 of us. Should be fun. I don't think most of them have done T4 at Cancun. I'm walking fast and getting 3-4 beers for the transfer at the outdoor bar

Sorry for the tangent as usual. Just getting pumped. Should be a good time.

AmericanKulak says

Okie-Arkie median Rent: ~$1100
Okie Arkie median wage: ~$50k/year

FL median Rent: ~$1800
FL median wage: ~$53k/year

been finding gems at $1900 on east end of Panama City Beach like this relatively new 3 bedroom/2.5 bath/1 car garage townhome listed for at least 120 days

same townhome would have rented for $2100 back in 2022, so this tells me that local household income is catching up more with rent

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7652-Shadow-Lake-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/305989650_zpid/

.

AD says

same townhome would have rented for $2100 back in 2022, so this tells me that local household income is catching up more with rent

Yes, the rents are getting clawed back steadily over the past two years, adjusting for Florida being #38 of 50 states for median wages yet well above the median national rent of $1600-1800 depending on source (as of late 2024). According to Zillow, FL is 25% above average.

Since the state runs on tourism and retirees rather than high value services and manufacturing, the ability of employers to raise wages is limited, so affordability adjustments will have to come from rents.

Another thing lowering rents is that Florida has 100k's of multifamily still in the pipeline with more opening up every month, thanks to post Financial Crisis anti-project abandonment rules and bonding requirements

And finally, the 20-40 year old multistory condos with the assessments and hoa fee increases beyond the ability of the truly elderly to meet. Which is often the homeloaner's fault, since they bypassed any inspections or deferred maintenance for decades.

https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2024/02/floridas-rent-costs-are-slowly-dropping
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article295458634.html

Should probably serve as a wake-up call when Blackstone is selling properties at a $130,000 loss.

Their subsidiary, Home Partners of America, is being shut down. And some big discounts are hitting the US Housing Market as a result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2AT3Msc-SE

7% Rates are the "Old Normal" as Wolf puts it, and that's a good place to be. It keeps the speculation and unsuitable buyers under control, tames the animal spirit excesses.

Also, knowing property managers in Orlando,and seeing some them IRL, about half the population in multifamily dwellers there are, in tthe words of Dante, "not even supposed to be here (today)."

The number of illegals/overstays in the US is much, much larger than any of the official estimates.

AmericanKulak says

7% Rates are the "Old Normal" as Wolf puts it, and that's a good place to be. It keeps the speculation and unsuitable buyers under control, tames the animal spirit excesses.

Well said.

AmericanKulak says

7% Rates are the "Old Normal" as Wolf puts it, and that's a good place to be. It keeps the speculation and unsuitable buyers under control, tames the animal spirit excesses.

Yes, the Wolfman at Wolf Street website has always been very astute at warning of asset bubbles.

I think the air is slowly being let out of Panama City Beach and Bay County real estate prices over the last 2.5 years. I'm keeping an eye on the tourism tax or "bed tax" data provided by Bay County government to notice any major decrease in tourism.

For Bay County and Panama City Beach, I would estimate based on local data like from chamber of commerce that about

40% : hospitality and service (retail, restaurants, etc) jobs
10% : healthcare (the local regional hospitals are used by people from other panhandle counties)
15%: military and federal government (Tyndall AFB, Naval Station Panama City, Coast Guard base, small NOAA station)
15%: manufacturing (Berg Pipe, Trane Air Conditioning, Eastern Shipyard, etc)
10%: Bay County Sheriff, Bay County School District, state government offices, etc
10% : miscellaneous

..

AmericanKulak says

The number of illegals/overstays in the US is much, much larger than any of the official estimates.

The Dems still going off Obama numbers of "only 11 million illegal immigrants in the USA". They (and their crony accomplices at the chamber of commerce, etc) want amnesty so they can force giving citizenship to +35 million illegal immigrants (not 11 million).

Yes I saw that one post of Blackstone selling the Florida single family house for a $130K loss, and it was about 25% below its all time high price (set around 2022).
.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/capitol-hill-dc-goverment-job-cuts-a283316c

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/capitol-hill-dc-goverment-job-cuts-a283316c

And even those who are not laid off may find their agency transferred to a Midwestern city.

HeadSet says

And even those who are not laid off may find their agency transferred to a Midwestern city.

In which case, they will have to sell...in a declining market.

HeadSet says

And even those who are not laid off may find their agency transferred to a Midwestern city.

Good idea. Extinguish Potomac Fever.

I know Adam Taggart. Good guy.

I swear sometimes you guys live on different planets or don't travel at all. Coastal areas will get trashed and it will validate your narrative. That's not the case though for most of the country. Look locally and don't project nationally. No inventory here and prices are going up so much that people are building because there's no re-sale homes on the market. That's why I never look at national prices.

WookieMan says

I swear sometimes you guys live on different planets

That would describe you more than the rest of us.