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housing prices peak 2
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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm 606,982 views 5,687 comments
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61
Blue
2022 May 2, 1:01pm
More houses are coming up, here is one just listed around.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/10481-N-Stelling-Rd-95014/home/1752807?source=patrick.net
List Price $2,388,000
Est. Mo. Payment $13,264
Redfin Estimate $2,595,765
Price/Sq.Ft. $2,005
Year Built 1950
2Beds,1Bath,1,191Sq Ft
Privilege area prices (not immune from theft and vandalism)
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/10481-N-Stelling-Rd-95014/home/1752807?source=patrick.net
List Price $2,388,000
Est. Mo. Payment $13,264
Redfin Estimate $2,595,765
Price/Sq.Ft. $2,005
Year Built 1950
2Beds,1Bath,1,191Sq Ft
Privilege area prices (not immune from theft and vandalism)
62
Bitcoin
2022 May 2, 1:24pm
Bitcoin
2022 May 2, 1:24pm
HunterTits says
The only one that claims interest rates dont matter much was WookieMan as far as I remember.
Obviously, rates have a huge impact to the housing market. I think 99% know this.
What many fail to understand is that a major slowdown doesnt mean crash. You can have a major slowdown from a super hot running housing market and still show YoY price growth. We were running WAAAY to hot. 100-200k over asking price-bidding wars are stupid and not sustainable.
Increased rates calms the demand down, increases inventory and slows down the overall economy.
There is no crash in sight for house prices. Some people call for 40-60% house prices crashes which is just laughable.
We are still negative with YoY inventory.
People who bring 2008 into the discussion dont understand that this all started in 2005. Prices were already declining, inventory rising, rates were higher and the credit profile of owners was significantly different than today.
What we are seeing today is: credit is good, homeowners have tons of equity, jobs are good. House prices are sky high and rates finally went up. And finally bidding wars disappear and inventory rises. all good things..... Remember, a REDUCTION in ASKING prices doesnt mean YoY price reductions.....
Eman saysBuyers, who used to qualify for $1.8-$2.2M, are getting bumped down to $1.5-$1.8M due to higher interest rate.
But how can this be? There are PatNetters who proclaimed a) interest rates wouldn't hit 4% let alone 5% or more and b) it wouldn't matter anyway, because 'interest rates don't really impact housing prices' or some shit like that.
The only one that claims interest rates dont matter much was WookieMan as far as I remember.
Obviously, rates have a huge impact to the housing market. I think 99% know this.
What many fail to understand is that a major slowdown doesnt mean crash. You can have a major slowdown from a super hot running housing market and still show YoY price growth. We were running WAAAY to hot. 100-200k over asking price-bidding wars are stupid and not sustainable.
Increased rates calms the demand down, increases inventory and slows down the overall economy.
There is no crash in sight for house prices. Some people call for 40-60% house prices crashes which is just laughable.
We are still negative with YoY inventory.
People who bring 2008 into the discussion dont understand that this all started in 2005. Prices were already declining, inventory rising, rates were higher and the credit profile of owners was significantly different than today.
What we are seeing today is: credit is good, homeowners have tons of equity, jobs are good. House prices are sky high and rates finally went up. And finally bidding wars disappear and inventory rises. all good things..... Remember, a REDUCTION in ASKING prices doesnt mean YoY price reductions.....
63
joshuatrio
2022 May 2, 2:39pm
joshuatrio
2022 May 2, 2:39pm
Avg. mortgage rate up .14% today alone. Now at 5.55% for the avg. 30 yr fixed.
Damn. I thought it was going to take a full year to get to this point. And it's only been a couple months.
Damn. I thought it was going to take a full year to get to this point. And it's only been a couple months.
64
EBGuy
2022 May 2, 2:53pm
BayArea says
Be the change and erect one in your back yard as is your right (bestowed by the CA legislature under SB-9).
I don’t see any new ones going up
Be the change and erect one in your back yard as is your right (bestowed by the CA legislature under SB-9).
65
GNL
2022 May 2, 3:32pm
GNL
2022 May 2, 3:32pm
HunterTits says
Hahahaha. I can't imagine anyone on Pat.net said it like that but, yeah, if so, that's about the dumbest shit ever. If rising rates don't effect price, why does lowering rates effect price?
b) it wouldn't matter anyway, because 'interest rates don't really impact housing prices' or some shit like that.
Hahahaha. I can't imagine anyone on Pat.net said it like that but, yeah, if so, that's about the dumbest shit ever. If rising rates don't effect price, why does lowering rates effect price?
66
richwicks
2022 May 2, 8:04pm
richwicks
2022 May 2, 8:04pm
BayArea says
San Francisco Housing?
First, SF is losing residents, and I'm in the Bay Area, I see a TON of new developments and we're losing residents as well. Also a large number of commercial zones are empty. At my job - which I just left - I still diligently went to work to work on a floor where maybe 10 people showed up that normally housed 200.
SFH is king.
I don’t see any new ones going up
San Francisco Housing?
First, SF is losing residents, and I'm in the Bay Area, I see a TON of new developments and we're losing residents as well. Also a large number of commercial zones are empty. At my job - which I just left - I still diligently went to work to work on a floor where maybe 10 people showed up that normally housed 200.
67
BayArea
2022 May 2, 8:40pm
BayArea
2022 May 2, 8:40pm
“Single family home”
Detached with a yard
Redfin raised my week to week home estimate by $120k this week… wtf
Detached with a yard
Redfin raised my week to week home estimate by $120k this week… wtf
68
NDrLoR
2022 May 2, 9:05pm
NDrLoR
2022 May 2, 9:05pm
Ad says
You can snorkel right off the white sand beachI'll stay in my room and order in room service, thank you!
69
richwicks
2022 May 2, 10:06pm
richwicks
2022 May 2, 10:06pm
BayArea says
May be a blowoff top. Create panic "to buy now!!!".
I am 50 and talked quite a bit to my grandparent's generation who went through the Depression. Taxable property isn't an asset, it's a liability - it wasn't an asset for them anyhow, and I'm expecting Depression 2.0. Time will tell.
Raise interest rates to 10%, use QE to keep the country "solvent", raise it to 15%, 20%. People with an ARM are complete slaves.
Maybe it's "different this time" - time will tell.
“Single family home”
Detached with a yard
Redfin raised my week to week home estimate by $120k this week… wtf
May be a blowoff top. Create panic "to buy now!!!".
I am 50 and talked quite a bit to my grandparent's generation who went through the Depression. Taxable property isn't an asset, it's a liability - it wasn't an asset for them anyhow, and I'm expecting Depression 2.0. Time will tell.
Raise interest rates to 10%, use QE to keep the country "solvent", raise it to 15%, 20%. People with an ARM are complete slaves.
Maybe it's "different this time" - time will tell.
70
SunnyvaleCA
2022 May 2, 10:11pm
BayArea says
The construction I see in my area is super-expensive townhouses. I think SFSs (single family shacks) are going to hold value better in the long run. Bulldoze and build what you want (if you can get through all the California red tape). With a condo or townhouse, you are pretty much stuck with the structure you buy, which will com into play 20 years from now when they don't seem all that new anymore.
I got a nice $350k Zestimate increase a few months back. I'm wondering what caused such a discontinuous jump. Maybe change to algorithm or maybe a bunch of similar properties just sold?
Single family home
Detached with a yard
Redfin raised my week to week home estimate by $120k this week… wtf
The construction I see in my area is super-expensive townhouses. I think SFSs (single family shacks) are going to hold value better in the long run. Bulldoze and build what you want (if you can get through all the California red tape). With a condo or townhouse, you are pretty much stuck with the structure you buy, which will com into play 20 years from now when they don't seem all that new anymore.
71
Ceffer
2022 May 2, 10:54pm
Ceffer
2022 May 2, 10:54pm
Redfin gave me a nice theoretical bump, too, but undervalued it by 100k from identical models in less desirable lots. Should I hug them or curse them? It's all vapor until you sell, and I always value the crap shack at 90 percent in the portfolio to take into account fix ups, moving expenses and sales commissions (not to even mention potential acquisition costs of a new crap shack somewhere else).
73
richwicks
2022 May 3, 5:06am
richwicks
2022 May 3, 5:06am
SunnyvaleCA says
Joe Biden is the most popular presidential candidate in all of US history having won the largest percentage of the eligible vote by sheer numbers and percentage of the eligible voting electorate.
I'm rather amazed that people can see an election can be fraudulent, but they can't believe statistics are as well. We're in total clown world. Every statistic is a lie at this point.
I'm wondering what caused such a discontinuous jump. Maybe change to algorithm or maybe a bunch of similar properties just sold?
Joe Biden is the most popular presidential candidate in all of US history having won the largest percentage of the eligible vote by sheer numbers and percentage of the eligible voting electorate.
I'm rather amazed that people can see an election can be fraudulent, but they can't believe statistics are as well. We're in total clown world. Every statistic is a lie at this point.
74
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2022 May 3, 6:34am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2022 May 3, 6:34am
Moody's to pay $864 million for pre-2008 ratings deception
Ratings agency Moody's has agreed to a settlement payout with US authorities over mortgage securities fraud that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis. The agreement follows an investigation lasting several years.
Moody's ratings was "directly influenced by the demands of the powerful investment banking clients who issued the securities and paid Moody's to rate them," Connecticut Attorney General George Jepsen said in a statement on Friday.
Twenty-one US states and the Justice Department accused Moody's Investors Services, Moody's Analytics and parent company Moody's Corporation of overvaluing the ratings of securities backed by subprime mortgages and at-risk loans.
Some $437.5 million will go to the Justice Department and $426.3 million to be divided among the states and the District of Columbia.
In March, Moody's agreed to pay $130 million to settle claims by the California Public Employees' Retirement System over allegedly inflated ratings on residential-mortgage bond deals.
In the settlement, the world's second-largest credit ratings agency acknowledged that it hadn't followed its own standards, stating that it had used a more lenient standard for certain financial products and had not made public the differences from its published standards.
"Moody's failed to adhere to its own credit rating standards and fell short on its pledge of transparency in the run-up to the Great Recession," Principal Deputy Associate Attorney General Bill Baer said in a statement.
The long con
The credit rating agencies - whose role is to rate debt securities on the basis of a debtor's ability to pay back lenders - played a key role both in fuelling and then not reining in the US subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-2008, which precipitated the global downturn and long subsequent period of austerity.
Banks made loans to homeowners and then bundled them into securities whose interest payments were guaranteed by those homes.
The banks and other lenders then paid S&P and Moody's to rate the bonds, often being given the highest grade even though many mortgages were granted to people knowingly highly likely to default.
The markets continue to rely on credit ratings
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission concluded in 2011 that "this crisis could not have happened without the 'Big Three' agencies - Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings," which allowed the ongoing trading of bad debt.
The pools of debt the agencies gave their highest ratings to included over three trillion dollars of loans to homebuyers with bad credit and undocumented incomes up to 2007.
Hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of these triple-A securities were downgraded to 'junk' status by 2010 and the writedowns and losses came to over half a trillion dollars, leading to the collapse or disappearance in 2008-9 of three major investment banks: Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch.
The US federal government meanwhile was obliged to buy up $700 billion of bad debt from distressed financial institutions.
Standard and Poor's paid a $1.37 billion fine in 2015 for deceiving investors about the quality of subprime mortgages. S&P said at the time it settled to avoid the "delay, uncertainty, inconvenience, and expense” of litigation.
With a third major agency, Fitch, the three ratings firms dominate the bond-rating market with a more than 96 percent share, compared to 98.8 percent in 2007 before the crisis, Bloomberg News reported.
With the District of Columbia, the states involved in the settlement announced Friday are Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Washington.
https://www.dw.com/en/moodys-to-pay-864-million-for-pre-2008-ratings-deception/a-37131484?source=patrick.net
Ratings agency Moody's has agreed to a settlement payout with US authorities over mortgage securities fraud that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis. The agreement follows an investigation lasting several years.
Moody's ratings was "directly influenced by the demands of the powerful investment banking clients who issued the securities and paid Moody's to rate them," Connecticut Attorney General George Jepsen said in a statement on Friday.
Twenty-one US states and the Justice Department accused Moody's Investors Services, Moody's Analytics and parent company Moody's Corporation of overvaluing the ratings of securities backed by subprime mortgages and at-risk loans.
Some $437.5 million will go to the Justice Department and $426.3 million to be divided among the states and the District of Columbia.
In March, Moody's agreed to pay $130 million to settle claims by the California Public Employees' Retirement System over allegedly inflated ratings on residential-mortgage bond deals.
In the settlement, the world's second-largest credit ratings agency acknowledged that it hadn't followed its own standards, stating that it had used a more lenient standard for certain financial products and had not made public the differences from its published standards.
"Moody's failed to adhere to its own credit rating standards and fell short on its pledge of transparency in the run-up to the Great Recession," Principal Deputy Associate Attorney General Bill Baer said in a statement.
The long con
The credit rating agencies - whose role is to rate debt securities on the basis of a debtor's ability to pay back lenders - played a key role both in fuelling and then not reining in the US subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-2008, which precipitated the global downturn and long subsequent period of austerity.
Banks made loans to homeowners and then bundled them into securities whose interest payments were guaranteed by those homes.
The banks and other lenders then paid S&P and Moody's to rate the bonds, often being given the highest grade even though many mortgages were granted to people knowingly highly likely to default.
The markets continue to rely on credit ratings
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission concluded in 2011 that "this crisis could not have happened without the 'Big Three' agencies - Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings," which allowed the ongoing trading of bad debt.
The pools of debt the agencies gave their highest ratings to included over three trillion dollars of loans to homebuyers with bad credit and undocumented incomes up to 2007.
Hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of these triple-A securities were downgraded to 'junk' status by 2010 and the writedowns and losses came to over half a trillion dollars, leading to the collapse or disappearance in 2008-9 of three major investment banks: Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch.
The US federal government meanwhile was obliged to buy up $700 billion of bad debt from distressed financial institutions.
Standard and Poor's paid a $1.37 billion fine in 2015 for deceiving investors about the quality of subprime mortgages. S&P said at the time it settled to avoid the "delay, uncertainty, inconvenience, and expense” of litigation.
With a third major agency, Fitch, the three ratings firms dominate the bond-rating market with a more than 96 percent share, compared to 98.8 percent in 2007 before the crisis, Bloomberg News reported.
With the District of Columbia, the states involved in the settlement announced Friday are Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Washington.
https://www.dw.com/en/moodys-to-pay-864-million-for-pre-2008-ratings-deception/a-37131484?source=patrick.net
75
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 May 3, 7:30am
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 May 3, 7:30am
BayArea says
What will you do with your new-found wealth? Because, if you don't do something, then Ceffer has a point:
Ceffer says
Redfin raised my week to week home estimate by $120k this week… wtf
What will you do with your new-found wealth? Because, if you don't do something, then Ceffer has a point:
Ceffer says
It's all vapor until you sell
76
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 May 3, 7:37am
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 May 3, 7:37am
BayArea says
What will you do with your new-found wealth? Because, if you don't do something, then Ceffer has a point:
Ceffer says
I know some folks, contemporaries of my parents, who decades ago stretched to make it all work (including, turning their kids into Latch-Key children), to relocate from our blue collar 'hood in East San Jose, to a pricey zip code on the Peninsula (Belmont).
It's always been expensive and over-priced to live here. Always. It was back then even before the Rich Kids of Billionaire families from India and China had their sites on our region, which has made it even more expensive and over-priced in recent years. Becoming like the London of the West Coast.
To make it all work they used credit card cash advances to pay the Property Tax Bill. When the prices (and equity vapor wealth) zoomed here like they do, they used HELOC to pay the Property Tax Bills. Were able to sustain that paradigm for decades till they retired, quit the Bay Area and moved to a state with no State Income Tax.
Redfin raised my week to week home estimate by $120k this week… wtf
What will you do with your new-found wealth? Because, if you don't do something, then Ceffer has a point:
Ceffer says
It's all vapor until you sellSunnyvaleCA says
I got a nice $350k Zestimate increase a few months back
I know some folks, contemporaries of my parents, who decades ago stretched to make it all work (including, turning their kids into Latch-Key children), to relocate from our blue collar 'hood in East San Jose, to a pricey zip code on the Peninsula (Belmont).
It's always been expensive and over-priced to live here. Always. It was back then even before the Rich Kids of Billionaire families from India and China had their sites on our region, which has made it even more expensive and over-priced in recent years. Becoming like the London of the West Coast.
To make it all work they used credit card cash advances to pay the Property Tax Bill. When the prices (and equity vapor wealth) zoomed here like they do, they used HELOC to pay the Property Tax Bills. Were able to sustain that paradigm for decades till they retired, quit the Bay Area and moved to a state with no State Income Tax.
77
Bitcoin
2022 May 3, 11:50am
Bitcoin
2022 May 3, 11:50am
richwicks says
Nah, of course thats totally exaggerated. I use many stats to track housing. Expected market time, active inventory listings, house price changes, pending homes sales, etc.
To say that every statistic is a lie is like saying everything is a conspiracy. We live in really cool times. We experience the crypto revolution, can buy houses, be landlords and have high paying jobs. Plus we are far away from Russia and China. And if some terrorist cell in the middle east grows to large we send a few drones to make the sand glow.
I love this life, and the icing on the cake is working from home! Thanks to covid!!!!!!!
but they can't believe statistics are as well. We're in total clown world. Every statistic is a lie at this point.
Nah, of course thats totally exaggerated. I use many stats to track housing. Expected market time, active inventory listings, house price changes, pending homes sales, etc.
To say that every statistic is a lie is like saying everything is a conspiracy. We live in really cool times. We experience the crypto revolution, can buy houses, be landlords and have high paying jobs. Plus we are far away from Russia and China. And if some terrorist cell in the middle east grows to large we send a few drones to make the sand glow.
I love this life, and the icing on the cake is working from home! Thanks to covid!!!!!!!
80
SunnyvaleCA
2022 May 4, 12:26am
richwicks says
Joe Biden is the most popular presidential candidate in all of US history having won the largest percentage of the eligible vote by sheer numbers and percentage of the eligible voting electorate.More than 100% of registered voters in some counties!
81
SunnyvaleCA
2022 May 4, 12:34am
(From graphic about 10 posts up)
DooDahMan says
Interesting that San Francisco and San Jose areas are, according to that (bogus) study, not overvalued. (Yellow color). Yes, your average dual-income high-tech couple earning $500k/year can afford an "average" single-family-shack here, but those are the tippy-top of the working class. In that financial position, they should be able to get a 5/3 3000 sq ft SFH in a new residential neighborhood. I'd love to see the map colored according to how many can afford that type of house.
DooDahMan says
The "interactive" map below is accessible in the link at the bottom.
Interesting that San Francisco and San Jose areas are, according to that (bogus) study, not overvalued. (Yellow color). Yes, your average dual-income high-tech couple earning $500k/year can afford an "average" single-family-shack here, but those are the tippy-top of the working class. In that financial position, they should be able to get a 5/3 3000 sq ft SFH in a new residential neighborhood. I'd love to see the map colored according to how many can afford that type of house.
82
Maga_Chaos_Monkey
2022 May 4, 8:50am
Maga_Chaos_Monkey
2022 May 4, 8:50am
B.A.C.A.H. says
I for one will be raising rents due to increased property taxes. However, I won't be raising it enough to cover those tax increases. Maybe I'll be able to catch up next year.
What will you do with your new-found wealth?
I for one will be raising rents due to increased property taxes. However, I won't be raising it enough to cover those tax increases. Maybe I'll be able to catch up next year.
83
joshuatrio
2022 May 4, 11:11am
joshuatrio
2022 May 4, 11:11am
Anecdotal.... but....
Friend at the gym is a plumber who 6 months ago was trying to hire me as his apprentice because he had so much work (working 7-7) and couldn't keep up. He was making about $15k/week in service calls. He has been self employed about 5 years.
Spoke with him today and he said it all stopped about 2 weeks ago - around the time rates really started going up. He went from working 5-6 days a week, down to 1.
He went back to work for a local plumbing outfit today to float things over, but he has never had things get this slow.
Friend at the gym is a plumber who 6 months ago was trying to hire me as his apprentice because he had so much work (working 7-7) and couldn't keep up. He was making about $15k/week in service calls. He has been self employed about 5 years.
Spoke with him today and he said it all stopped about 2 weeks ago - around the time rates really started going up. He went from working 5-6 days a week, down to 1.
He went back to work for a local plumbing outfit today to float things over, but he has never had things get this slow.
85
Bitcoin
2022 May 4, 1:25pm
Bitcoin
2022 May 4, 1:25pm
joshuatrio says
good friend of mine does subcontract work for builders. He's def seeing a slowdown....but keep in mind we are coming from a crazy hot economy level....a slow down is healthy and doesnt equate to a severe crash.
Spoke with him today and he said it all stopped about 2 weeks ago - around the time rates really started going up
good friend of mine does subcontract work for builders. He's def seeing a slowdown....but keep in mind we are coming from a crazy hot economy level....a slow down is healthy and doesnt equate to a severe crash.
87
stereotomy
2022 May 4, 10:56pm
stereotomy
2022 May 4, 10:56pm
HunterTits says
It's about goddamn time.
It's going to be great to be GenX in their peak earnings years, stuffing money away into bonds/savings that earns a decent return for a change. Finally we get at least one fucking break. Most of us need the money for retirement.
It's about goddamn time.
89
porkchopXpress
2022 May 5, 10:00pm
porkchopXpress
2022 May 5, 10:00pm
HunterTits says
During recessions, people are less full of shit.
joshuatrio saysSpoke with him today and he said it all stopped about 2 weeks ago - around the time rates really started going up. He went from working 5-6 days a week, down to 1.
Toilets still clog up.
91
PeopleUnited
2022 May 7, 5:20am
PeopleUnited
2022 May 7, 5:20am
joshuatrio says
Dramatic change in workload, and pretty dramatic to go from self employment for 5 years to working for the man in the space of 2 weeks.
Anecdotal.... but....
Friend at the gym is a plumber who 6 months ago was trying to hire me as his apprentice because he had so much work (working 7-7) and couldn't keep up. He was making about $15k/week in service calls. He has been self employed about 5 years.
Spoke with him today and he said it all stopped about 2 weeks ago - around the time rates really started going up. He went from working 5-6 days a week, down to 1.
He went back to work for a local plumbing outfit today to float things over, but he has never had things get this slow.
Dramatic change in workload, and pretty dramatic to go from self employment for 5 years to working for the man in the space of 2 weeks.
92
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 May 7, 2:36pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 May 7, 2:36pm
joshuatrio says
If I don't want to fix plumbing at my home (which is all the time) AND if I can afford to pay one, I call a plumber.
But if I must, I can do it myself. Hate every minute of it, but I can do it. I've done it.
I suppose if inflation has made everything else more expensive I can fix my own plumbing, even though I hate doing it.
Spoke with him today and he said it all stopped about 2 weeks ago
If I don't want to fix plumbing at my home (which is all the time) AND if I can afford to pay one, I call a plumber.
But if I must, I can do it myself. Hate every minute of it, but I can do it. I've done it.
I suppose if inflation has made everything else more expensive I can fix my own plumbing, even though I hate doing it.
93
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2022 May 7, 2:51pm
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2022 May 7, 2:51pm
The Redfin map of Seattle homes for sale is lit up lke a Christmas tree. Never have seen that before. And here comes the fat lady...
94
Hircus
2022 May 7, 2:58pm
Hircus
2022 May 7, 2:58pm
joshuatrio says
I wonder if there was pent up plumbing work that people deferred during covid, causing such a burst in work for him. Not saying rates didnt contribute to the cooling tho.
Anecdotal.... but....
Friend at the gym is a plumber who 6 months ago was trying to hire me as his apprentice because he had so much work (working 7-7) and couldn't keep up. He was making about $15k/week in service calls. He has been self employed about 5 years.
Spoke with him today and he said it all stopped about 2 weeks ago - around the time rates really started going up. He went from working 5-6 days a week, down to 1.
He went back to work for a local plumbing outfit today to float things over, but he has never had things get this slow.
I wonder if there was pent up plumbing work that people deferred during covid, causing such a burst in work for him. Not saying rates didnt contribute to the cooling tho.
95
porkchopXpress
2022 May 7, 6:13pm
porkchopXpress
2022 May 7, 6:13pm
Look at the entire price history of this rental. The owners purchased it for $1.4M in March and turned it around as a rental for $8,000/month listing. It's now down to $6,500 and still no takers.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2468-Santa-Barbara-Ln-Franklin-TN-37069/332944429_zpid/?source=patrick.net
People are fucked.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2468-Santa-Barbara-Ln-Franklin-TN-37069/332944429_zpid/?source=patrick.net
People are fucked.
96
PeopleUnited
2022 May 7, 10:12pm
PeopleUnited
2022 May 7, 10:12pm
Al_Sharpton_for_President says
Well if rates are causing plumbers to lose their jobs, seems likely that more pain is in the future, for a lot of people.
I did notice that Cabelas/Bass Pro Shop parking lot was nearly empty today, which is unheard of for a normal Saturday. Was is the economy cooling/freezing up or is it just that everyone stayed home to watch the derby?
And here comes the fat lady...
Well if rates are causing plumbers to lose their jobs, seems likely that more pain is in the future, for a lot of people.
I did notice that Cabelas/Bass Pro Shop parking lot was nearly empty today, which is unheard of for a normal Saturday. Was is the economy cooling/freezing up or is it just that everyone stayed home to watch the derby?
97
AD
2022 May 7, 11:20pm
AD
2022 May 7, 11:20pm
joshuatrio says
Boom bust cycle economy (or casino style economy)
I wonder how much housing and the S&P 500 will bust this time ... housing dropped about 28% for the US National Home Price Index from 2006 to 2012 .... whereas the S&P 500 dropped about 58% from 2007 to 2009....
I had a townhome I bought for $270k in Alexandria, VA back in 2004 ...sold it for $300k in 2008 ... after selling costs like 5% broker fee, I walked out with $5k in my pocket.... at one time identical townhomes in my community were selling for $410,000 in 2006....
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA?source=patrick.net
.
Rates hit a fresh high of 5.64% yesterday.
Boom bust cycle economy (or casino style economy)
I wonder how much housing and the S&P 500 will bust this time ... housing dropped about 28% for the US National Home Price Index from 2006 to 2012 .... whereas the S&P 500 dropped about 58% from 2007 to 2009....
I had a townhome I bought for $270k in Alexandria, VA back in 2004 ...sold it for $300k in 2008 ... after selling costs like 5% broker fee, I walked out with $5k in my pocket.... at one time identical townhomes in my community were selling for $410,000 in 2006....
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA?source=patrick.net
.
99
mell
2022 May 8, 8:35am
The houses in our rural county and hood just made a fresh high in appreciation. Inventory increased but that's totally normal considering nobody was putting their house on the market during covid. I see no evidence whatsoever of a crash, more like a slowdown in appreciation. Also the flight away from big cities continues, so big metro areas are not a good indicator (anymore). Btw. Austin is reaching new peaks by the day as well, that market has gone completely bonkers.
100
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2022 May 8, 8:50am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2022 May 8, 8:50am
Counterpoint: I lived on the eastide of Seattle during the financial fraud crash. While we were watching prices plummet in the Bay Area and elsewhere, prices continued ro rise in our hood and Seatte proper, as well. Everyone thought we were immune from the growing RE crash, that things were somehow different in the Northwest.
Let's see where this may all be going longer term.
Let's see where this may all be going longer term.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.