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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   676,136 views  6,637 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   ignore (1)  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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6543   Glock-n-Load   2025 Jun 18, 6:53am  

How prices are still rising is an amazing feat though. IMO
6545   WookieMan   2025 Jun 18, 9:01am  

MolotovCocktail says

^^^^ part of your tune is changing definitions. Once again, you got caught but insist otherwise.

Oklahoma isn't on the coast.

The bulk of the loses is in coastal areas. Let me know how Oklahoma is dragging down national median. Might move it $2. The horror. If even that much. It doesn't matter nationally. Again do you not get what coastal areas are and trying to prove some not existent point? You're the one throwing in midwestern states where value barely dropped from already low values and a tiny percentage.

Good luck selling a house in OK for $20M. That's a normal day in CA. When the prices drop that drops national averages, median and price. That doesn't mean it's happening at that scale in OK or MO. Understand stats and geography. You might be in a market either not able to get in or losing your ass, that's not most the country if you account for land mass. Populated coastal cities drive national numbers. It's really not even a discussion.
6546   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 18, 9:15am  

Glock-n-Load says

Some are not on the coasts.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/sellers-flooding-home-market-while-175657593.html


Wookie can't admit that he was wrong. So he gaslights.
6547   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 18, 9:16am  

WookieMan says

The bulk of the loses is in coastal areas


More of you twisting things around because you can't admit you were full of shit.
6548   WookieMan   2025 Jun 18, 9:37am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


The bulk of the loses is in coastal areas


More of you twisting things around because you can't admit you were full of shit.

Is the national average not 80% based on coastal areas. A yes or a no. You put a map up not showing the percentage or median price of the non-coastal areas. Back up what you're talking about.
6549   AD   2025 Jun 18, 12:18pm  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/falling-rents-could-good-news-145527021.html

Falling Rents Could Be Good News for Inflation


Yep, this is at 2020 rent prices: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1610-Annabellas-Way-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87631272_zpid/

And that townhome HOA called Annabellas is about 50% owned by landlord investors

so if rent goes down, the price would at least would stay the same in an attempt to maintain a certain "cap rate" or ROI

I saw an article in Fort Lauderdale's Sun Sentental this week that shows out-of-state insurance carriers like State Farm and Progressive charge a lot less for Florida property insurance
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6550   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 19, 8:14am  

More of those 'coastal states (only)' taking hits in the R/E!


6551   GNL   2025 Jun 19, 11:11am  

MolotovCocktail says

More of those 'coastal states (only)' taking hits in the R/E!




Honestly, the truth is a real bitch to know. All I'm hearing is 1) prices are still rising and 2) Agents saying "This is a weird market". I think agents say things like this when the market turns.
6552   Booger   2025 Jun 21, 6:48am  

https://patriotnewswire.com/deportation-the-real-fix-for-americas-housing-crunch/

Deportation: The Real Fix for America’s Housing Crunch!
6553   WookieMan   2025 Jun 21, 12:11pm  

MolotovCocktail says

More of those 'coastal states (only)' taking hits in the R/E!




Zillow.... lol. They don't have all the data. And these numbers are hysterical. So a $1M house in CA lost $50k? That's a joke after the increases we've seen. If you can't afford $50k loses don't buy in that market. Everyone else lost worst case $5k-10k in the none coastal areas or gained.

Not so for CA, OR, WA, TX, LA, MS, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MA and Maine. Coastal areas.

CO and WV are the outliers off the coast. Though WV is close to the coast as well.

The midwest gained or is within the realm of error on stats. Like I've said you clearly live on a different planet. The locations in the 2nd line drive national numbers because homes are expensive ON THE COASTS.

My statements stand and the hole without a ladder you dug is getting deeper and it's with your own evidence which is funny. These are also comical losses. You rent, I get it. That's fine. Don't portray the market falsely. 0.03% in IA? 0.06% in ND? 0.04% in SD? 0.08% in VA? 0.02% NM? The housing market is doomed!!!!! That's like not tipping $20 in these locations.

Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.
6554   AD   2025 Jun 21, 1:33pm  

WookieMan says


Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.


Yeah Wookie, the Center Of Mass is closer to those regions where a starter single family detached home goes for at least $750K

What props up those regions like in California ? Are there enough rich krazy (and/or HI-1B) Asians coming from abroad to continue to buy there ? Are there enough tech jobs paying at least $300K a year for someone to buy a $1 million bungalow near San Jose ?

One thing is there is definitely a correlation between the S&P 500 / tech stocks and the fiscal health of California, including its state deficits.

Demographics is the most important socioeconomic factor as what happens to the baby boomer homes as well as the construction rate for new homes.

30% of Japan is over age 65: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-countries-with-the-highest-share-of-seniors/

% is over age 65 : Maine at 23%, Florida at 22% and California at 16% , and about 17.5% for USA

but about 47% of Florida is under age 40 (with 25% between age 20 to 40)

about 28% of California is between age 20 and 40

and Illinois it is around 25% (with 18% of Illinois above age 65)

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6555   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 21, 2:21pm  

WookieMan says

Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.


Keep posting gaslighting bullshit because you can't admit you were wrong in your initial statement.
6557   WookieMan   2025 Jun 24, 11:18am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

Keep posting gaslighting bullshit because you can't admit you were wrong in your initial statement.

Yes, I'll bow down to bullshit. 50+ new homes with 20-30 years of nothing. Must be ghosts. No one said other markets can't go down. You're the one gaslighting. Those markets are coastal. My point stands. Fly on a plane and go somewhere else instead of sitting at home. And go all "ad hominem" on this comment.

You're wrong. High value areas are eating it a little bit. Coastal. The rest of the country is fine outside of CO and AZ if we're talking inland. 0.04% matters? Not sure what planet you live on.
6558   AD   2025 Jun 24, 11:33am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.


Keep posting gaslighting bullshit because you can't admit you were wrong in your initial statement.


You have to look at the median sales price and volume of sales for each zip code, but I agree that the California, Texas, Colorado and Florida dominate a lot of the market.

That is why its best to examine by metro area. Austin has gotten clobbered.

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6559   EBGuy   2025 Jun 24, 2:12pm  

AD says

What props up those regions like in California ?

Approximately 5% of the SF Bay Area economy is injections of venture capital. As the saying goes, that'll leave a mark. That said, I don't know of any municipality or agency within California that isn't facing a fiscal crisis. And that's in an up economy. The next downturn is going to leave a mark.
Mayor Lurie wants to close S.F. budget deficit by cutting roughly 1,400 city jobs
San Jose shrinks budget shortfall, prioritizes temporary shelters
The City Council previewed the proposed 2025-26 budget during a budget study session Wednesday, which drops the projected budget shortfall of $60 million to $35.6 million.
How Many California Cities are Running Huge Budget Deficits?

The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,
San Diego is over $300 million in debt.
The City of Sacramento has a $66 million budget deficit.
San Francisco has a $876 million budget deficit.
San Jose projected a $60 million budget shortfall, then ratcheted it down to $35.6 million, but is projecting a $52.9 million deficit for 2026.
The City of Fresno is facing a budget deficit of over $20 million in the 2026 budget. In 2025, the city expects to have an end-of-year surplus of nearly $15 million, but according to City Manager Georgeanne White, without federal American Rescue Plan Act dollars, 2025 could end up in the red, yourcentralvalley.com reports.
Oakland is facing a $268 million deficit over the next two fiscal years.
Berkeley has a $28M budget deficit.
6560   SunnyvaleCA   2025 Jun 24, 3:06pm  

EBGuy says

I don't know of any municipality or agency within California that isn't facing a fiscal crisis. And that's in an up economy.

We need DODGE out here. Sadly, all that was uncovered was swept under the rug and soon to be ignored. But if only that level of waste and fraud were exposed at all levels of government (and I'm sure there are epic levels of waste and fraud all around), we'd at least have a chance of averting financial collapse.
6561   Misc   2025 Jun 25, 1:47am  

Looks like the Case/Shiller had another up month (new record high) recovering from a slight downturn from the previous 2 months.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=199&eid=243576#snid=243577

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
6562   WookieMan   2025 Jun 25, 3:25am  

Misc says

Looks like the Case/Shiller had another up month (new record high) recovering from a slight downturn from the previous 2 months.

Yup. Not gonna search for the comment but I said people get under contract in the spring and close when the kids are out of school. This is 100% true when it's to a new district.

Every spring this happens where people freak out that we're in a housing bust. Then May through September are when the real numbers hit as the contracts close. Reality is who goes shopping for homes during the holidays? It's only corporate relocation buyers or there's a good deal. Basically no demand and closings during Jan-April. And before anyone is a smart ass, there are closings, just not many and from desperate sellers. So numbers will be lower for sales and value.

I lived this life. I know how it works. It's seasonal. No different than road construction. Southern states are slightly different, but it's still about closing and moving when kids are out of school. The midwest you're not moving in January-March or shouldn't. Pure misery.

Once Thanksgiving hit we really wouldn't even take a listing. No buyers, we have to sell for less and it basically made our brokerage look bad with high market time and/or no sale. If they could wait, we'd ask them to hold out until at least late Jan. to get on the market.
6563   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2025 Jun 25, 4:52am  

EBGuy says

The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,

Thanks for a very well-written post EBGuy. I wonder if the respective muni bond ratings will suffer.
6564   WookieMan   2025 Jun 25, 5:21am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

EBGuy says


The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,

Thanks for a very well-written post EBGuy. I wonder if the respective muni bond ratings will suffer.

Don't understand bonds, but they'll just raise property taxes. That's what they did in Chicago when pensions were on the verge of collapse.

Chicago has most the population, but is a thorn in the rest of the state. Everything outside of Chicago is fully (mostly) funded. Yes property taxes are high, but you at least know you'll get your money in retirement. Fire, police, teachers in Chicago in 20 years are likely screwed when they go to retire. They'll likely get half of what they were expecting.

My Chicago cop friends about my same age are getting out at I think 47 from CPD. If it's around they'd still get the pension, but they want to get to SS years and work for a suburban department that is less risky. And yes I know pension people don't pay SS, but they work side gigs as security so it's W-2.
6565   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 25, 9:05am  

WookieMan says


Don't understand bonds, but they'll just raise property taxes. That's what they did in Chicago when pensions were on the verge of collapse.


Can't do that in LA or even the rest of the cities. Prop 13.
6566   WookieMan   2025 Jun 25, 9:35am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says



Don't understand bonds, but they'll just raise property taxes. That's what they did in Chicago when pensions were on the verge of collapse.


Can't do that in LA or even the rest of the cities. Prop 13.

I did say property taxes, so I own that. I know of prop 13. That said they'll just jack up the gas tax, registration on vehicles, permits, sales tax you name it. Hell parking in the city they could double. EV since there's a high amount of them out there will be taxed higher.

Lived it in Chicago. They sold the Skyway to Indiana to cover debt. Parking meters for 100 years to a private company. Parking enforcement and fees. It's coming your way. I don't wish it upon you guys, but it's coming. For those that own great, but for the average citizen or renter, they will get a 10-20% hit somehow through random taxes.
6567   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 25, 10:37pm  

Oh ffs!


6569   AD   2025 Jun 25, 11:54pm  

EBGuy says


The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,
San Diego is over $300 million in debt.
The City of Sacramento has a $66 million budget deficit.
San Francisco has a $876 million budget deficit.


.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/state-debt-clocks/state-of-california-debt-clock.html

.


6570   Misc   2025 Jun 25, 11:58pm  

Sure, glad they all operate with a balanced budget amendment. - Good luck holding them accountable.
6571   WookieMan   2025 Jun 26, 4:42am  

MolotovCocktail says

Oh ffs!




Yeah, but now they'll have to disclose information on their bitcoin and will likely need to keep it in an exchange. Complete opposite of what everyone claims that it is safe and secure. You'll have to give access in my opinion for them to take it as collateral.

Stupid though by Fannie and Freddie, but I might make a nice dime as word gets out. I've got a decent amount of shares of FNMA at $1.20ish and it's at $10 now.

There's no stoppage if coins crash is the problem. With stocks they'll shut down the exchanges to minimize the loses with a big crash and let people think about what is going on. A few bitcoin whales could sell $2B worth of it and that would crash the market. Now you bring exchanges in that have been hacked and it's ballgame over. Hopefully I get a bounce and will dump half of FNMA.
6572   Glock-n-Load   2025 Jun 26, 5:50am  

Two things come to mind.
1. Since bitcoin can literally go to infinity, this means home prices could as well? Although not enough people own bitcoin for that to happen.
2. If bitcoin is used as collateral, will banks have some type of margin calls on the dips?

All this financial foolishness seems to have no end. They can keep bullshit going forever it seems.
6573   Fortwaye   2025 Jun 26, 7:39am  

MolotovCocktail says

Oh ffs!





is this scam real? our own government is openly scamming us?
6574   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 26, 9:10am  

WookieMan says

Yeah, but now they'll have to disclose information on their bitcoin and will likely need to keep it in an exchange. Complete opposite of what everyone claims that it is safe and secure. You'll have to give access in my opinion for them to take it as collateral.


Doesn't say it is to be used as collateral, just for risk assessment.

But that will probably come next.

WookieMan says

Stupid though by Fannie and Freddie,


It's 100% political. To help the Whales who can't liquidate their crypto holdings w/o crashing the price.

Glock-n-Load says

If bitcoin is used as collateral, will banks have some type of margin calls on the dips


Again, doesn't say that it will be used as collateral. Not yet.

Fortwaye says

is this scam real? our own government is openly scamming us?


Why you acting surprised.
6575   zzyzzx   2025 Jun 26, 10:38am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/25/may-2025-new-home-sales.html

Real Estate Sales of new homes tanked in May, pushing supply up to a 3-year high
6576   zzyzzx   2025 Jun 26, 10:53am  

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14839107/florida-condo-law-home-values-hoa.html

Condo owners wake up to grim reality that their homes are worthless

In Boynton Beach for example, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo at Hunters Run Country Club with access to a resort-style pool and high-end amenities is selling for just $10,000. The owner paid $60,000 for it in 2001. It's now worth $3 per square-foot.

On Marco Island, a one-bedroom, two-bathroom condo complete with water access at Sunrise Bay Resort is listed for $9,000.


I want to know the monthly fee on those units.
6577   Glock-n-Load   2025 Jun 26, 11:17am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14839107/florida-condo-law-home-values-hoa.html

Condo owners wake up to grim reality that their homes are worthless

In Boynton Beach for example, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo at Hunters Run Country Club with access to a resort-style pool and high-end amenities is selling for just $10,000. The owner paid $60,000 for it in 2001. It's now worth $3 per square-foot.

On Marco Island, a one-bedroom, two-bathroom condo complete with water access at Sunrise Bay Resort is listed for $9,000.


I want to know the monthly fee on those units.

You can assume it’s about $1,000/month AND there’s probably a special assessment coming up on it.
6578   WookieMan   2025 Jun 26, 12:01pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14839107/florida-condo-law-home-values-hoa.html

Condo owners wake up to grim reality that their homes are worthless

In Boynton Beach for example, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo at Hunters Run Country Club with access to a resort-style pool and high-end amenities is selling for just $10,000. The owner paid $60,000 for it in 2001. It's now worth $3 per square-foot.

On Marco Island, a one-bedroom, two-bathroom condo complete with water access at Sunrise Bay Resort is listed for $9,000.


I want to know the monthly fee on those units.

You do know these are trailer park type communities? I wouldn't touch a condo in FL unless it has a view on the beach. Most are trash.
6579   AD   2025 Jun 27, 1:09am  

WookieMan says

You do know these are trailer park type communities? I wouldn't touch a condo in FL unless it has a view on the beach. Most are trash.


No, there are no trailers in Hunters Run ( https://www.huntersrun.net/real-estate ).

I've never seen trashy condos in Florida since they are run by an HOA. Its upscale apartment living such as Harbour Villas at Bay Point in Panama City Beach, which is not on the beach.

.
6580   zzyzzx   2025 Jun 27, 5:36am  

WookieMan says

You do know these are trailer park type communities? I wouldn't touch a condo in FL unless it has a view on the beach. Most are trash.

Article specifically states that they are condos.
From the pictures they don't look like trailers either:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Hunters-Run_Boynton-Beach_FL/pnd-hide

Here is one:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/17-Stratford-Dr-E-Apt-F_Boynton-Beach_FL_33436_M56375-95335?from=srp-list-card
$1,425/mo condo fee
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/23-Westgate-Ln-Apt-B_Boynton-Beach_FL_33436_M95175-63742?from=srp-list-card
$1,631/mo condo fee

Not trailers, but condo fees that are basically apartment rent,
6581   WookieMan   2025 Jun 27, 6:17am  

Trailer park TYPE. One word there that is important. Condos can be trashy buildings.

I get frustrated in this thread. I've been in thousands of houses and condos NOT including friends and family. Working in Chicago about 30% of our sales were condos. There are trailer park TYPE condos out there. Not well kept, crime, drugs, drunks, etc. I've seen it all.

I also have looked at condos with my dad when younger in the Panhandle of FL. There are shit condo complexes. Your typical mid rise 2-3 story building with prices the white trash can afford or ghetto blacks. That area is also off 95. Those are people going to the south for service jobs, that likely are doing meth and other stuff. Easy to keep the grounds clean in FL as the grass species they use barely grows. Perennial plants need work maybe 2 times a year.

This should have been my main point. The condo fee is likely high because they have to maintain a building no one wants to live in. Or there's a special assessment they passing on to the potential new owner. That generally means it's a shit hole.

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