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6698
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 28, 1:49pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 28, 1:49pm
ForcedTQ says
According to the response of an AI query I made, only between 3% to 4% of existing homes are bought/sold in the Bay Area each year. It means that the huge majority of homes have been owned for a long time. I will use mine in SJ as an example. I looked it up on one of the ®eal Estate websites. According to that web site, the value is $1.1 M, down from about $1.4 M at the peak in 2022 (*).
Provided I haven't been serially refinancing to extract equity, if I want to sell to relocate to a cheaper place I am not going to care if I've "lost" 300k equity that I really didn't have anyway. I will just sell at the lower price. This is the typical seller who didn't serially take out equity with new loans. I've known a few of them who sold and moved to the Sierra Foothills or Central Valley over the years. They didn't care so much about catching the exact Peakest Best Price.
I pay attention to the homes in my neighborhood that sell. It's mostly the same ones. Recent buyers selling, to "flip", or more often I think, to get out from the burden of the super high mortgage payments and tax bills of their recent purchases. Most of the other 97% or so of the homes don't change hands except for the occasional retiree I mentioned in the previous paragraph.
(*) There was a contributor to this blog who wanted you all to know that he was from our Cool And Hip Bay Area, as his handle was "BayArea" with a picture of the Golden Gate Bridge. He shared that he bought a place in the leafy suburban paradise Tri-Valley in 2022, ("bought at the peak") and then didn't contribute to the blog any more. So we don't know how it turned out for Mister BayArea.
The problem is those people that live in the high cost places will not easily/readily be willing to sell at a lower price …. Even if the market tanks so long as they have their source of income….
According to the response of an AI query I made, only between 3% to 4% of existing homes are bought/sold in the Bay Area each year. It means that the huge majority of homes have been owned for a long time. I will use mine in SJ as an example. I looked it up on one of the ®eal Estate websites. According to that web site, the value is $1.1 M, down from about $1.4 M at the peak in 2022 (*).
Provided I haven't been serially refinancing to extract equity, if I want to sell to relocate to a cheaper place I am not going to care if I've "lost" 300k equity that I really didn't have anyway. I will just sell at the lower price. This is the typical seller who didn't serially take out equity with new loans. I've known a few of them who sold and moved to the Sierra Foothills or Central Valley over the years. They didn't care so much about catching the exact Peakest Best Price.
I pay attention to the homes in my neighborhood that sell. It's mostly the same ones. Recent buyers selling, to "flip", or more often I think, to get out from the burden of the super high mortgage payments and tax bills of their recent purchases. Most of the other 97% or so of the homes don't change hands except for the occasional retiree I mentioned in the previous paragraph.
(*) There was a contributor to this blog who wanted you all to know that he was from our Cool And Hip Bay Area, as his handle was "BayArea" with a picture of the Golden Gate Bridge. He shared that he bought a place in the leafy suburban paradise Tri-Valley in 2022, ("bought at the peak") and then didn't contribute to the blog any more. So we don't know how it turned out for Mister BayArea.
6699
Blue
2025 Jul 28, 2:56pm
CA 1978 Prop 13 sounds like helping homeowners pay property taxes based on purchase price. The downside is, all homeowners are stuck in their own houses!
Without new young families with kids, schools can’t survive.
I fought on nextdoor app since for a decade the dark cloud are on the way for the entire areas with school closures. Most thought I was crazy.
Look around, it is happening now as most cities are becoming retirement communities.
You go around and find out the 4, 5 bedrooms houses left with one or two old people!
They are meant for young families and raise their kids and send them to neighborhood schools. Not too many young people can move to Bay Area or other metro area in CA and pay higher prices and taxes.
Most homeowners are now counting on floating people in rental apartments to keep their schools open to keep their home values intact!
At some point CA must revoke Prop 13 and truck loads of its derivative laws and join the rest of the country to make CA great again!
Without new young families with kids, schools can’t survive.
I fought on nextdoor app since for a decade the dark cloud are on the way for the entire areas with school closures. Most thought I was crazy.
Look around, it is happening now as most cities are becoming retirement communities.
You go around and find out the 4, 5 bedrooms houses left with one or two old people!
They are meant for young families and raise their kids and send them to neighborhood schools. Not too many young people can move to Bay Area or other metro area in CA and pay higher prices and taxes.
Most homeowners are now counting on floating people in rental apartments to keep their schools open to keep their home values intact!
At some point CA must revoke Prop 13 and truck loads of its derivative laws and join the rest of the country to make CA great again!
6700
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 28, 4:57pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 28, 4:57pm
Blue says
That had to do with collapse in families.
I fought on nextdoor app since for a decade the dark cloud are on the way for the entire areas with school closures
That had to do with collapse in families.
6701
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 28, 5:00pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 28, 5:00pm
Blue says
No way.
You don't seem to be aware the seniors can transfer their Prop 13 valuation ONCE. The new property has to be valued at or below the property that they are selling. My parents did that.
truck loads of its derivative laws and join the rest of the country to make CA great again!
No way.
You don't seem to be aware the seniors can transfer their Prop 13 valuation ONCE. The new property has to be valued at or below the property that they are selling. My parents did that.
6702
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 28, 6:09pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 28, 6:09pm
Blue says
Not really. They can sell, they'll just lose their Prop-13 tax assessment. And that's not exactly true anyway because if they buy another less expensive home, they can "transfer" their assessment to the newly purchased home. They're not stuck: they have options.
Blue says
Yes, during the pandemic I delivered for meals on wheels to many such clients.
Blue says
Yup. That's why I hope the prices will drop by half, so local kids can buy and have their own kids. Because of the insanely high prices due to low inventory turnover, a drop in value by half will mean most of the Old Folks will still have a gain, and likely still above the max-married-couple half million exclusion gain.
But rentiers like iwog and Eman won't allow that drop to happen. They'll swoop in and buy the dip to expand their Rental Empires to exploit even more folks of modest means.
The downside is, all homeowners are stuck in their own houses!
Not really. They can sell, they'll just lose their Prop-13 tax assessment. And that's not exactly true anyway because if they buy another less expensive home, they can "transfer" their assessment to the newly purchased home. They're not stuck: they have options.
Blue says
You go around and find out the 4, 5 bedrooms houses left with one or two old people!
Yes, during the pandemic I delivered for meals on wheels to many such clients.
Blue says
They are meant for young families and raise their kids and send them to neighborhood schools.
Yup. That's why I hope the prices will drop by half, so local kids can buy and have their own kids. Because of the insanely high prices due to low inventory turnover, a drop in value by half will mean most of the Old Folks will still have a gain, and likely still above the max-married-couple half million exclusion gain.
But rentiers like iwog and Eman won't allow that drop to happen. They'll swoop in and buy the dip to expand their Rental Empires to exploit even more folks of modest means.
6703
Blue
2025 Jul 28, 6:38pm
MolotovCocktail says
I doubt unless you see similar things in other states for comparison.
The biggest dent of prop 13 comes actually from businesses though.
Blue says
I fought on nextdoor app since for a decade the dark cloud are on the way for the entire areas with school closures
That had to do with collapse in families.
I doubt unless you see similar things in other states for comparison.
The biggest dent of prop 13 comes actually from businesses though.
6704
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 28, 6:52pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 28, 6:52pm
Blue says
Sorry pal, but I was born and raised in San Jose. One of my elementary schools I attended in 1978 - 1980 was shut down in the 1990s. Not enough kids in the district. Last I heard it was rented out to a child care company.
That was way back then. More have since been shut down. Same reason. Almost everyone I went to school with bailed. Too unaffordable even back then when a $300k house was a shocking number.
Some may have reopened because of the surge in H1Bs and illegals over the past 20 years tho. The ones that weren't torn down.
I doubt unless you see similar things in other states for comparison.
Sorry pal, but I was born and raised in San Jose. One of my elementary schools I attended in 1978 - 1980 was shut down in the 1990s. Not enough kids in the district. Last I heard it was rented out to a child care company.
That was way back then. More have since been shut down. Same reason. Almost everyone I went to school with bailed. Too unaffordable even back then when a $300k house was a shocking number.
Some may have reopened because of the surge in H1Bs and illegals over the past 20 years tho. The ones that weren't torn down.
6705
The_Deplorable
2025 Jul 28, 9:40pm
Blue says
And that enables the people of California to control their taxes.
"At some point CA must revoke Prop 13 and truck loads of its derivative laws and join the rest of the country to make CA great again!"
No. The 30 year old Housing Bubble needs to collapse.
"CA 1978 Prop 13 sounds like helping homeowners pay property taxes based on purchase price."
And that enables the people of California to control their taxes.
"At some point CA must revoke Prop 13 and truck loads of its derivative laws and join the rest of the country to make CA great again!"
No. The 30 year old Housing Bubble needs to collapse.
6706
ForcedTQ
2025 Jul 28, 9:47pm
Also, need to look at the data for total state taxes collected per capita and state expenses per capita. Compare that to the other states. Betcha CA is in top 5 in both. That means the problem isn’t going to be fixed with higher property taxes, that just increases your rent payment to the government….
We give away far too much in benefits programs to illegals and bullshit programs. Need to reign all that garbage spending in!
We give away far too much in benefits programs to illegals and bullshit programs. Need to reign all that garbage spending in!
6707
Blue
2025 Jul 28, 10:45pm
The_Deplorable says
Blue says
No. The 30 year old Housing Bubble needs to collapse.
Prop 13 is one of the major one in home prices apart from so many other factors.
Snake oil Prop 13 was dead on arrival as per the design. If I remember correctly, within 4 years Mello-Roos taxes were introduced to tackle prop 13 tax offset!
No state suffered because lack of a law like Ponzi scheme prop 13 which created unnatural environment and it’s consequences.
Again the real benefits goes to business at the expense of the rest by paying highly unequal and lowest property taxes. Their ill effects are seen on the rest of the economy through indirect means.
The origin of pro 13 came from rich people in LA area who don’t want to pay taxes that goes to schools while sending their kids to private schools!
6708
Glock-n-Load
2025 Jul 29, 4:14am
The_Deplorable says
I’m not so sure it’s a bubble. Obviously plenty of people are still buying homes. I think we’re watching a bifurcation in the economy. It’s becoming more apparent. Society is best when everyone can participate. Even poor people need affordable to them housing.
Blue says
"CA 1978 Prop 13 sounds like helping homeowners pay property taxes based on purchase price."
And that enables the people of California to control their taxes.
"At some point CA must revoke Prop 13 and truck loads of its derivative laws and join the rest of the country to make CA great again!"
No. The 30 year old Housing Bubble needs to collapse.
I’m not so sure it’s a bubble. Obviously plenty of people are still buying homes. I think we’re watching a bifurcation in the economy. It’s becoming more apparent. Society is best when everyone can participate. Even poor people need affordable to them housing.
6709
GNL
2025 Jul 29, 5:03am
GNL
2025 Jul 29, 5:03am
Even smart and responsible people can be very short sighted.
I'm on an entrepreneur subreddit and I came across a post where the OP was bitching about people not wanting to work hard and build businesses. Instead, his words, they want to sit at a desk and be internet millionaires. While he's not entirely wrong, what he misses is 1. He's a 4th generation farmer. Think about that. He was born into a lifelong job that most people can only dream of having. You have to think about that for a moment. That farm was built over 3 generations before he got it. And 2. All new things are built from scratch. Many people only have their wits and labor to produce something so, yes, the internet has helped tremendously.
I'm on an entrepreneur subreddit and I came across a post where the OP was bitching about people not wanting to work hard and build businesses. Instead, his words, they want to sit at a desk and be internet millionaires. While he's not entirely wrong, what he misses is 1. He's a 4th generation farmer. Think about that. He was born into a lifelong job that most people can only dream of having. You have to think about that for a moment. That farm was built over 3 generations before he got it. And 2. All new things are built from scratch. Many people only have their wits and labor to produce something so, yes, the internet has helped tremendously.
6710
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2025 Jul 29, 8:46am
GNL says
out here lots of farmers who are 2nd and 3rd generation. inherited business and everything organized and streamlined years ago. they don’t complain here.
Even smart and responsible people can be very short sighted.
I'm on an entrepreneur subreddit and I came across a post where the OP was bitching about people not wanting to work hard and build businesses. Instead, his words, they want to sit at a desk and be internet millionaires. While he's not entirely wrong, what he misses is 1. He's a 4th generation farmer. Think about that. He was born into a lifelong job that most people can only dream of having. You have to think about that for a moment. That farm was built over 3 generations before he got it. And 2. All new things are built from scratch. Many people only have their wits and labor to produce something so, yes, the internet has helped tremendously.
out here lots of farmers who are 2nd and 3rd generation. inherited business and everything organized and streamlined years ago. they don’t complain here.
6713
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 29, 12:48pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 29, 12:48pm
MolotovCocktail says
Where in SJ was your school? A retired employee from the elementary school I attended in East SJ in the 1970's told me that the student population is less than half what it was at its peak about 20 years ago. It's happening all over the Bay Area, schools dying out. At least in some measure this balances the challenge of recruiting new teachers to a region with insane living cost.
As far as I know, Branham HS in San Jose is the only school that reopened when child population picked up. And that reopening was in the year 1999.
MolotovCocktail says
Me too. I have more SJ Homies living in the Central Valley and Sierra Foothills than here in the Bay Area.
MolotovCocktail says
Some new Santa Clara Unified District schools opened up in the mostly-below-sea-level former wetlands of the SF Bay where massive multifamily communities have recently been built for the H-1s. I've walked through some of those neighborhoods. You can walk for a long time before seeing another non-Indian. And that non-Indian will be a Chinese, not a haolie, not a Latino. I've walked past cricket games (never a baseball / softball game) and Bollywood Style group dancing. Feels like I'm in the concrete canyons of Mumbai, with more pleasant weather and sanitation.
The wave of illegals or legal-migrants who take up residence in SJ are all working age adults who pack like rats in the less expensive shabbier places (like my neighborhood). They don't have the time, space, nor resources for kids. This is why the school districts where such kids would have attended are in a tightening enrollment death spiral worse than the other districts that also face similar demographic trend.
Prop-13 or not, the high price of owning/renting here is turning SJ and the Bay Area into an Old Folks Home.
I was born and raised in San Jose. One of my elementary schools I attended in 1978 - 1980 was shut down in the 1990s. Not enough kids in the district. Last I heard it was rented out to a child care company.
That was way back then. More have since been shut down. Same reason
Where in SJ was your school? A retired employee from the elementary school I attended in East SJ in the 1970's told me that the student population is less than half what it was at its peak about 20 years ago. It's happening all over the Bay Area, schools dying out. At least in some measure this balances the challenge of recruiting new teachers to a region with insane living cost.
As far as I know, Branham HS in San Jose is the only school that reopened when child population picked up. And that reopening was in the year 1999.
MolotovCocktail says
Almost everyone I went to school with bailed. Too unaffordable even back then when a $300k house was a shocking number.
Me too. I have more SJ Homies living in the Central Valley and Sierra Foothills than here in the Bay Area.
MolotovCocktail says
Some may have reopened because of the surge in H1Bs and illegals over the past 20 years tho.
Some new Santa Clara Unified District schools opened up in the mostly-below-sea-level former wetlands of the SF Bay where massive multifamily communities have recently been built for the H-1s. I've walked through some of those neighborhoods. You can walk for a long time before seeing another non-Indian. And that non-Indian will be a Chinese, not a haolie, not a Latino. I've walked past cricket games (never a baseball / softball game) and Bollywood Style group dancing. Feels like I'm in the concrete canyons of Mumbai, with more pleasant weather and sanitation.
The wave of illegals or legal-migrants who take up residence in SJ are all working age adults who pack like rats in the less expensive shabbier places (like my neighborhood). They don't have the time, space, nor resources for kids. This is why the school districts where such kids would have attended are in a tightening enrollment death spiral worse than the other districts that also face similar demographic trend.
Prop-13 or not, the high price of owning/renting here is turning SJ and the Bay Area into an Old Folks Home.
6714
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 29, 1:04pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 29, 1:04pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
That was Calero Elementary. There were two other schools within a couple of miles of it. I went there for grades 5-6. Had to be bussed from 6 miles or so away. Stipe Elementary, where I attended K - 4, was a lot closer. I even walked home two or so times. But because Calero was losing kids and development of housing near Stipe was taking off, they bussed us.
Holy Shit, they turned it into an alternative high school:
We are an alternative school of choice. We are not a continuation high school.
Calero High School offers a comprehensive, college prep education (A-G curriculum) in a nurturing, small school learning environment. We provide opportunities for credit recovery, career pathways and college readiness.
And Stipe is still open. It is a STEM k-6. WTF? STEM?
Where in SJ was your school?
That was Calero Elementary. There were two other schools within a couple of miles of it. I went there for grades 5-6. Had to be bussed from 6 miles or so away. Stipe Elementary, where I attended K - 4, was a lot closer. I even walked home two or so times. But because Calero was losing kids and development of housing near Stipe was taking off, they bussed us.
Holy Shit, they turned it into an alternative high school:
We are an alternative school of choice. We are not a continuation high school.
Calero High School offers a comprehensive, college prep education (A-G curriculum) in a nurturing, small school learning environment. We provide opportunities for credit recovery, career pathways and college readiness.
And Stipe is still open. It is a STEM k-6. WTF? STEM?
6715
Misc
2025 Jul 29, 1:47pm
Woop...Woop...the Case/Shiller finally went down. It dropped .3% from the prior month.
For those expecting a big drop in prices, do you think it will be slow like over the course of a decade or do you think it will be quick ???
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
For those expecting a big drop in prices, do you think it will be slow like over the course of a decade or do you think it will be quick ???
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
6716
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 29, 2:02pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 29, 2:02pm
Misc says
Like good sex: start slow, then speeds up.
For those expecting a big drop in prices, do you think it will be slow like over the course of a decade or do you think it will be quick ???
Like good sex: start slow, then speeds up.
6717
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 29, 2:16pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 29, 2:16pm
MolotovCocktail says
When the gyms were closed during the pandemic I got my cardio walking all over the city. I remember walking past that school. I was surprised the sign said ESUHSD. I thought I knew all the schools in that district, which I attended back in the day. When I got home I looked at the web site, to figure out this is a sort of a Continuation School (not really a traditional high school). Your post jogged my memory a bit. Today i went back to check out the website.
In a sense, this school is part and parcel of the tsunami of declining enrollment due to demographic changes.
The fact that they make a point of saying they're not a Continuation School, belies the reality. The district's Continuation School is Foothill, on the other side of town. Calero is not a "Continuation School". It's an "Alternative School".
Since the district, - even lower performing schools in the (formerly) rough neighborhoods, stress AP classes, advanced math like calculus and beyond, etc, the not-so-challenging course offerings shown on Calero's website are for "at-risk" students. Not at risk of being back in the juvie (that's Foothill), but "at risk" of not getting a diploma. The website has the feel of school for dropouts who did not have behavior problems, to "come back" to get their high school diploma, with not-so-challenging classes.
I think it's indicative of the declining enrollment trend because the district wants those dropouts back to capture state dollars that are based on enrollment. The "alternative school" provides a setting without the pressure of the nowadays' curricula and expectations. If a drop out gets the GED without attending class in the district, the district doesn't get the state funding.
Holy Shit, they turned it into an alternative high school:
When the gyms were closed during the pandemic I got my cardio walking all over the city. I remember walking past that school. I was surprised the sign said ESUHSD. I thought I knew all the schools in that district, which I attended back in the day. When I got home I looked at the web site, to figure out this is a sort of a Continuation School (not really a traditional high school). Your post jogged my memory a bit. Today i went back to check out the website.
In a sense, this school is part and parcel of the tsunami of declining enrollment due to demographic changes.
The fact that they make a point of saying they're not a Continuation School, belies the reality. The district's Continuation School is Foothill, on the other side of town. Calero is not a "Continuation School". It's an "Alternative School".
Since the district, - even lower performing schools in the (formerly) rough neighborhoods, stress AP classes, advanced math like calculus and beyond, etc, the not-so-challenging course offerings shown on Calero's website are for "at-risk" students. Not at risk of being back in the juvie (that's Foothill), but "at risk" of not getting a diploma. The website has the feel of school for dropouts who did not have behavior problems, to "come back" to get their high school diploma, with not-so-challenging classes.
I think it's indicative of the declining enrollment trend because the district wants those dropouts back to capture state dollars that are based on enrollment. The "alternative school" provides a setting without the pressure of the nowadays' curricula and expectations. If a drop out gets the GED without attending class in the district, the district doesn't get the state funding.
6718
The_Deplorable
2025 Jul 29, 2:27pm
Glock-n-Load says
If the average price of a house exceeds three-times the average income then
you are looking at a housing bubble. Alan Greenspan (then Fed Chairman)
deliberately started this bubble.
That is another reason why the Fed needs to be abolished.
"I’m not so sure it’s a bubble."
If the average price of a house exceeds three-times the average income then
you are looking at a housing bubble. Alan Greenspan (then Fed Chairman)
deliberately started this bubble.
That is another reason why the Fed needs to be abolished.
6719
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 29, 2:36pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 29, 2:36pm
The_Deplorable says
Here in SJ it's 10x.
If the average price of a house exceeds three-times the average income then
you are looking at a housing bubble. Alan Greenspan (then Fed Chairman)
deliberately started this bubble.
Here in SJ it's 10x.
6720
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2025 Jul 29, 2:42pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
Gods Country, Idaho
Fortwaye says
out here lots of farmers who are 2nd and 3rd generation
Where is out here?
Gods Country, Idaho
6721
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 29, 2:46pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 29, 2:46pm
Fortwaye says
Are you one of the participants who relocated away from the LA area?
If yes, if you're willing, please share a summary of it: what you like, what you don't like, overall satisfaction of the move, how locals treated you.
B.A.C.A.H. says
Fortwaye says
out here lots of farmers who are 2nd and 3rd generation
Where is out here?
Gods Country, Idaho
Are you one of the participants who relocated away from the LA area?
If yes, if you're willing, please share a summary of it: what you like, what you don't like, overall satisfaction of the move, how locals treated you.
6722
GNL
2025 Jul 29, 6:10pm
GNL
2025 Jul 29, 6:10pm
The_Deplorable says
Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.
Glock-n-Load says
"I’m not so sure it’s a bubble."
If the average price of a house exceeds three-times the average income then
you are looking at a housing bubble. Alan Greenspan (then Fed Chairman)
deliberately started this bubble.
That is another reason why the Fed needs to be abolished.
Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.
6723
WookieMan
2025 Jul 29, 6:41pm
WookieMan
2025 Jul 29, 6:41pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
While I believe it, that's insane. We're 2x's coming up in the next 45 days with the mortgage. Our property taxes are going to suck though. $15k/yr probably. We were negative the average price to income on our old house. I can't even fathom 10x's. That would be $3.6M in rural IL for us. 100 acres and a 10k sq. ft. mansion. No I don't and wouldn't want that.
Not sure what that gets y'all in SJ. Too lazy to search.
Here in SJ it's 10x.
While I believe it, that's insane. We're 2x's coming up in the next 45 days with the mortgage. Our property taxes are going to suck though. $15k/yr probably. We were negative the average price to income on our old house. I can't even fathom 10x's. That would be $3.6M in rural IL for us. 100 acres and a 10k sq. ft. mansion. No I don't and wouldn't want that.
Not sure what that gets y'all in SJ. Too lazy to search.
6724
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 30, 8:19am
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 30, 8:19am
GNL says
I think bubble refers to a figure of merit related to price-to-value. Not who are the buyers-and-sellers of overpriced assets and not emotions like "caring".
Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.
I think bubble refers to a figure of merit related to price-to-value. Not who are the buyers-and-sellers of overpriced assets and not emotions like "caring".
6725
Glock-n-Load
2025 Jul 30, 10:24am
B.A.C.A.H. says
I think you’re missing the point.
GNL says
Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.
I think bubble refers to a figure of merit related to price-to-value. Not who are the buyers-and-sellers of overpriced assets and not emotions like "caring".
I think you’re missing the point.
6726
GNL
2025 Jul 30, 11:49am
GNL
2025 Jul 30, 11:49am
B.A.C.A.H. says
Everything sells for what it is worth. Regulations and profit margins will keep housing costs high. Tech/AI will continue to push workers down. This equals housing that is too expensive for more and more people. This is, or course, just my opinion.
GNL says
Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.
I think bubble refers to a figure of merit related to price-to-value. Not who are the buyers-and-sellers of overpriced assets and not emotions like "caring".
Everything sells for what it is worth. Regulations and profit margins will keep housing costs high. Tech/AI will continue to push workers down. This equals housing that is too expensive for more and more people. This is, or course, just my opinion.
6728
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2025 Jul 30, 12:28pm
that company public? i’d short their stock if i had spare change in brokerage.
6729
Blue
2025 Jul 30, 1:51pm
Fortwaye says
I think it is Atlassian Corp NASDAQ: TEAM.
Their products are very popular around though there are almost similar free open source products available.
It’s not only his company but soon many others will likely follow the same path with AI
that company public? i’d short their stock if i had spare change in brokerage.
I think it is Atlassian Corp NASDAQ: TEAM.
Their products are very popular around though there are almost similar free open source products available.
It’s not only his company but soon many others will likely follow the same path with AI
6730
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 30, 8:01pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jul 30, 8:01pm
GNL says
You mean like tulips in the 1630's?
Dot.com stocks at the turn of the century?
Houses in 2007?
Everything sells for what it is worth.
You mean like tulips in the 1630's?
Dot.com stocks at the turn of the century?
Houses in 2007?
6731
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 30, 8:40pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jul 30, 8:40pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
At least the houses had an intrinsic, tangible value.
You mean like tulips in the 1630's?
Dot.com stocks at the turn of the century?
Houses in 2007?
At least the houses had an intrinsic, tangible value.
6732
Glock-n-Load
2025 Jul 31, 4:09am
B.A.C.A.H. says
Yes
GNL says
Everything sells for what it is worth.
You mean like tulips in the 1630's?
Dot.com stocks at the turn of the century?
Houses in 2007?
Yes
6733
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2025 Jul 31, 10:28am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2025 Jul 31, 10:28am
Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year
Puta Gorda, Florida has passed Austin as the worst performing city
Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.20% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.0% in June, down from up 2.3% YoY in May. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023.
The seasonally adjusted FMHPI decreased -0.20% MoM on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. This was the 5th consecutive MoM decrease in the SA index. Over the last 3 months, this index has decreased at a 2.4% annual rate and decreased at a 1.1% annual rate over the last 6 months.
House prices are under pressure!
32 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted
As of June, 32 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-5.4), West Virginia (-3.7%), Colorado (-2.9%), and Florida (-2.7%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 250 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.
Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. And 12 of the 30 cities are in Florida.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices (up 2.0% YoY in June) appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 2.3% YoY in May. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will likely be up slightly less year-over-year in the June report compared to May.
As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025.
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-declined-f84
Puta Gorda, Florida has passed Austin as the worst performing city
Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.20% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.0% in June, down from up 2.3% YoY in May. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023.
The seasonally adjusted FMHPI decreased -0.20% MoM on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. This was the 5th consecutive MoM decrease in the SA index. Over the last 3 months, this index has decreased at a 2.4% annual rate and decreased at a 1.1% annual rate over the last 6 months.
House prices are under pressure!
32 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted
As of June, 32 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-5.4), West Virginia (-3.7%), Colorado (-2.9%), and Florida (-2.7%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 250 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.
Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. And 12 of the 30 cities are in Florida.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices (up 2.0% YoY in June) appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 2.3% YoY in May. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will likely be up slightly less year-over-year in the June report compared to May.
As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025.
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-declined-f84
6735
The_Deplorable
2025 Jul 31, 11:49am
Al_Sharpton_for_President says
It looks to me that we are witnessing the collapse of the housing bubble.
"As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth
(year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025."
It looks to me that we are witnessing the collapse of the housing bubble.
6736
WookieMan
2025 Jul 31, 2:14pm
WookieMan
2025 Jul 31, 2:14pm
The_Deplorable says
We took 5-8 years off of growth of any kind. 2012-2015 is when it started coming up from the VALLEY. We've hit a peak that has a high floor on the downside, in most places at least. There's no crash. Most non-coastal areas will be steady and increase. There will be crashes in micro markets due to out migration. Shit schools and crime in cities.
Al_Sharpton_for_President says
"As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025."
It looks to me that we are witnessing the collapse of the housing bubble.
We took 5-8 years off of growth of any kind. 2012-2015 is when it started coming up from the VALLEY. We've hit a peak that has a high floor on the downside, in most places at least. There's no crash. Most non-coastal areas will be steady and increase. There will be crashes in micro markets due to out migration. Shit schools and crime in cities.
6737
zzyzzx
2025 Aug 1, 8:29am
zzyzzx
2025 Aug 1, 8:29am
https://fortune.com/2025/07/31/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-zillow-mortgage-rates/
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Zillow say mortgage rates can’t fall enough for Americans to afford a home
On Tuesday, Zillow economic analyst Anushna Prakash reported mortgage rates would need to drop to 4.43% for a typical home to be affordable to an average buyer. But “that kind of a rate decline is currently unrealistic,” Prakash wrote. Meanwhile, not even a 0% interest rate would make a typical home affordable in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, or San Jose, she added.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Zillow say mortgage rates can’t fall enough for Americans to afford a home
On Tuesday, Zillow economic analyst Anushna Prakash reported mortgage rates would need to drop to 4.43% for a typical home to be affordable to an average buyer. But “that kind of a rate decline is currently unrealistic,” Prakash wrote. Meanwhile, not even a 0% interest rate would make a typical home affordable in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, or San Jose, she added.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.