patrick.net

The_Deplorable says

Glock-n-Load says

"I’m not so sure it’s a bubble."

If the average price of a house exceeds three-times the average income then
you are looking at a housing bubble. Alan Greenspan (then Fed Chairman)
deliberately started this bubble.
That is another reason why the Fed needs to be abolished.

Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Here in SJ it's 10x.

While I believe it, that's insane. We're 2x's coming up in the next 45 days with the mortgage. Our property taxes are going to suck though. $15k/yr probably. We were negative the average price to income on our old house. I can't even fathom 10x's. That would be $3.6M in rural IL for us. 100 acres and a 10k sq. ft. mansion. No I don't and wouldn't want that.

Not sure what that gets y'all in SJ. Too lazy to search.

GNL says

Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.

I think bubble refers to a figure of merit related to price-to-value. Not who are the buyers-and-sellers of overpriced assets and not emotions like "caring".

B.A.C.A.H. says

GNL says

Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.

I think bubble refers to a figure of merit related to price-to-value. Not who are the buyers-and-sellers of overpriced assets and not emotions like "caring".

I think you’re missing the point.

B.A.C.A.H. says

GNL says

Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.

I think bubble refers to a figure of merit related to price-to-value. Not who are the buyers-and-sellers of overpriced assets and not emotions like "caring".

Everything sells for what it is worth. Regulations and profit margins will keep housing costs high. Tech/AI will continue to push workers down. This equals housing that is too expensive for more and more people. This is, or course, just my opinion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/aussie-billionaire-ceo-fires-workers-replacing-them-with-ai/ss-AA1JyrqU?pc=HCTS

that company public? i’d short their stock if i had spare change in brokerage.

Fortwaye says

that company public? i’d short their stock if i had spare change in brokerage.

I think it is Atlassian Corp NASDAQ: TEAM.
Their products are very popular around though there are almost similar free open source products available.
It’s not only his company but soon many others will likely follow the same path with AI

GNL says

Everything sells for what it is worth.

You mean like tulips in the 1630's?
Dot.com stocks at the turn of the century?
Houses in 2007?

B.A.C.A.H. says

You mean like tulips in the 1630's?
Dot.com stocks at the turn of the century?
Houses in 2007?

At least the houses had an intrinsic, tangible value.

B.A.C.A.H. says

GNL says

Everything sells for what it is worth.

You mean like tulips in the 1630's?
Dot.com stocks at the turn of the century?
Houses in 2007?

Yes

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year

Puta Gorda, Florida has passed Austin as the worst performing city

Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.20% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.0% in June, down from up 2.3% YoY in May. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023.

The seasonally adjusted FMHPI decreased -0.20% MoM on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. This was the 5th consecutive MoM decrease in the SA index. Over the last 3 months, this index has decreased at a 2.4% annual rate and decreased at a 1.1% annual rate over the last 6 months.

House prices are under pressure!

32 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted

As of June, 32 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-5.4), West Virginia (-3.7%), Colorado (-2.9%), and Florida (-2.7%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 250 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. And 12 of the 30 cities are in Florida.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices (up 2.0% YoY in June) appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 2.3% YoY in May. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will likely be up slightly less year-over-year in the June report compared to May.

As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-declined-f84

Puta Gorda, FL 😂

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

"As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth
(year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025."

It looks to me that we are witnessing the collapse of the housing bubble.

The_Deplorable says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says
"As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025."

It looks to me that we are witnessing the collapse of the housing bubble.

We took 5-8 years off of growth of any kind. 2012-2015 is when it started coming up from the VALLEY. We've hit a peak that has a high floor on the downside, in most places at least. There's no crash. Most non-coastal areas will be steady and increase. There will be crashes in micro markets due to out migration. Shit schools and crime in cities.

https://fortune.com/2025/07/31/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-zillow-mortgage-rates/
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Zillow say mortgage rates can’t fall enough for Americans to afford a home

On Tuesday, Zillow economic analyst Anushna Prakash reported mortgage rates would need to drop to 4.43% for a typical home to be affordable to an average buyer. But “that kind of a rate decline is currently unrealistic,” Prakash wrote. Meanwhile, not even a 0% interest rate would make a typical home affordable in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, or San Jose, she added.

zzyzzx says

https://fortune.com/2025/07/31/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-zillow-mortgage-rates/
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Zillow say mortgage rates can’t fall enough for Americans to afford a home

On Tuesday, Zillow economic analyst Anushna Prakash reported mortgage rates would need to drop to 4.43% for a typical home to be affordable to an average buyer. But “that kind of a rate decline is currently unrealistic,” Prakash wrote. Meanwhile, not even a 0% interest rate would make a typical home affordable in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, or San Jose, she added.

Someone should break the news to certain idiots then...https://patrick.net/post/1383080/2025-01-03-housing-prices-will-not-go-down

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-drop-14-metros/

Home Prices Drop in 14 Major U.S. Metros, Including Parts of Florida and Texas, As Buyers Gain Upper Hand

What would be considered a crash?

zzyzzx says

On Tuesday, Zillow economic analyst Anushna Prakash reported mortgage rates would need to drop to 4.43% for a typical home to be affordable to an average buyer. But “that kind of a rate decline is currently unrealistic,” Prakash wrote. Meanwhile, not even a 0% interest rate would make a typical home affordable in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, or San Jose, she added.

Coastal as usual. Midwest is doing fine as usual. Fact is the Midwest is going to boom with tariffs. The Great Lakes and Mississippi river valley areas are going to do well. No one is building a factory on the west coast or east coast. WI, MI, IN, OH, PA, IL, IA, MO are going to be at the core of it.

Between refineries, rail, rivers, lakes, solid interstates and state highways, cheap labor, multiple large airports, minimal traffic, secure power supply, etc. Our only disasters are flooding and tornados. Which are minimal on the overall economy. Low cost of living nationally speaking.

If tariffs have the intended effect, I agree.

What’s the best way to track that going forward?

WookieMan says

Most non-coastal areas will be steady and increase.

Subtract out FL from the chart in 6733 and you’ve got mostly non-coastal areas. Just sayin'.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Subtract out FL from the chart in 6733 and you’ve got mostly non-coastal areas. Just sayin'.

I think people here conflate the difference of coastal areas. If you're within 3-4 hours of the coast you can wake up and be on the beach in no time and have a full day there or a weekend. That's coastal. Nashville, TN is not coastal. St. Louis, MO is not coastal. Iowa City, IA is not coastal. The Great Lakes are not coastal as it's seasonal for 3 months total during the year if that.

The big % drop is all happening in coastal areas. Prove me wrong.

WookieMan says

If you're within 3-4 hours of the coast you can wake up and be on the beach in no time and have a full day there or a weekend. That's coastal.

AGAIN. Stop with your coastal bullshit. Just STOP

WookieMan says

If you're within 3-4 hours of the coast you can wake up and be on the beach in no time

Noone in their right mind would consider Stockton, CA, to be in a coastal area, so your definition is whacked. Nonetheless, in that list, Idaho Falls, ID, Austin, TX, Pueblo, CO, Kileen, TX, Morganton, WV, Parkersburg, WV, Charleston, WV, Wichita, KS, Beckley, WV. So 18 non-FL’s, and even under your strained definition, 50% are in non-coastal regions.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Noone in their right mind would consider Stockton, CA, to be in a coastal area, so your definition is whacked.

He didn't say 'cities' this time, either. He had more credibility pull there.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Charleston, WV

It's a day drive to Virgina Beach for a weekend. Not a big deal. I drive to Duluth, MN and Door County, WI at least 2-5 times a year all 5-7 hour drives. Stockton, CA is under 2 hours to Half Moon Bay. Not sure if it's worth going to but that's nothing. It's coastal. Las Vegas to Los Angles is 4hour-30min. These are all weekend trips to coastal areas. People over pay to live there and when shit crashes in those markets, it makes the national look bad.

Austin, TX to Corpus Cristi. 3hours 30min. Another example. KS, ID and CO are non-starters on the national average. CO with Denver I suppose but Pueblo, CO? https://sty.ink/10km2 $200-500k? Even a 10% drop is nothing. Sure there are some expensive properties, but it's cheap relatively speaking for that part of CO.

You hear all these rumors about Hollywood and its stars bailing out. There are a lot of Beverly Hills seven figure mega mansions for sale.

Interest rates are historically normal, even on the low side. Higher interest rates mean that people who aren’t financially sophisticated - they don’t engage in stock and real estate speculation - can get a decent bank return. It makes their lives easier to plan, less stressful.

We are only pushing for lower rates because that is good for financial speculators who can borrow cheap and make huge bets through hedge funds or private equity gambles - and cut bait if it goes south. Low rates are not good for the average citizen. And the other reason is we have buried ourselves in so much government debt that we won’t be able to pay it if interest rates stay the same or increase because we have to roll over the debt all the time. That government debt is directly related to financial speculators who screwed us over in 2008 and later.

So we are demanding lower rates that won’t help the normal man - so that we can save the government’s balance sheet - and give financiers more opportunity to borrow money for nothing and continue to buy up all assets and make ownership harder for the people.

https://x.com/FischerKing64/status/1951409794927174043

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Noone in their right mind would consider Stockton, CA, to be in a coastal area, so your definition is whacked

I visit Stockton frequently as I have family there. They frequently travel to the beaches in summer to escape the Central Valley Heat.

During non-commute hours it's about 75 minute drive from SJ.

For decades I worked alongside Stockton commuter residents in tech employment in Silicon Valley.

And the fact they have an inland deep water port qualifies for MolotovCocktail's definition of Coastal Region (like Duluth, Pittsburgh and all the rest of those ports along inland waterways).

B.A.C.A.H. says

And the fact they have an inland deep water port qualifies for MolotovCocktail's definition of Coastal Region (like Duluth, Pittsburgh and all the rest of those ports along inland waterways).

Those are lakes. No one says they live in coastal Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc.

https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/coastal

Duluth, MN is 100% not a "coastal" area. You can say it's a coastline where land meets the water, but is not "coastal" at all. Ocean or sea. Great Lakes are not that. I live here and know what people call it. They just happen to be massive lakes. Shoreline is the common term around here and I live here.

Fact is the Great Lakes region is not losing value outside of a tiny stretch of MN that happens to be on a lake. MN is losing value as people leave Minneapolis. The same is true for the other inland states with larger cities. Sell your $500k property and move to a further out property for $350k. Prices look like they're going down, even though they're going up elsewhere. It drags down the median and average.

Fact is 40% of people live in coastal areas: https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/economics-and-demographics.html#:~:text=Almost%2040%25%20Live%20on%20the,land%20mass%20(excluding%20Alaska).

A 5% drop in coastal areas will bring the national median price down a ton. It's not a judgement of those areas, it's just reality. You will lose more value in a coastal area, it's doesn't mean a crash for the other 60% when you use national numbers.

WookieMan says

Ocean or sea. Great Lakes are not that. I live here and know what people call it.

Doesn't matter wtf people 'call it'. What matters is what it actually is.

And the St. Lawrence Seaway defines it. Blame that.

WookieMan says

A 5% drop in coastal areas will bring the national median price down a ton. It's not a judgement of those areas, it's just reality.

READ A FUCKING MAP!



Arkansas is landlocked. So is Nevada. Oklahoma. Utah. Idaho. Kansas. Missouri. Goes on and on and on.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14933071/housing-markets-falling-home-prices-skyrocket-america.html

Number of US cities with falling house prices hits alarming milestone as crash fears escalate

One third of the housing markets across the US are seeing prices fall.

Of the nation's 300 largest housing markets, 109 experienced home price declines between between June 2024 and June 2025.

That compares to just 31 of the 300 markets posting annual drops in January, according to analysis from ResiClub.

Experts say it show how quickly conditions have shifted as more homeowners rush to offload properties.

MolotovCocktail says

Arkansas is landlocked. So is Nevada. Oklahoma. Utah. Idaho. Kansas. Missouri. Goes on and on and on.

Nevada - Las Vegas
Oklahoma - Oklahoma City
Utah - Salt Lake City
Idaho - Bosie
Missouri - St. Louis
Minnesota - Minneapolis
Kansas - Kansas City

7 low priced cities does not drag down national numbers. Just state numbers. Millennials are moving to the suburbs bringing up those prices but lowering the national median as they move from higher priced city properties to suburban or rural at lower prices. It's minimal though.

It's not a bad thing unless you live in a city or coastal area. Those are the people that are going to get hurt the worst and it will look worse nationally than it really is.

WookieMan says

low priced cities does not drag down national numbers

Yes they do.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

low priced cities does not drag down national numbers

Yes they do.

No 7-8 figure coastal cities and areas do. You seriously think St. Louis even moves the median nationally? We're talking $1-3 on price with a city like St. Louis if even that. It is probably pocket change.

WookieMan says

No 7-8 figure coastal cities and areas do. You seriously think St. Louis even moves the median nationally? We're talking $1-3 on price with a city like St. Louis if even that. It is probably pocket change.

Here you contradict yourself yet again. You say cities don't matter in determining national numbers yet insist cities be omitted.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

No 7-8 figure coastal cities and areas do. You seriously think St. Louis even moves the median nationally? We're talking $1-3 on price with a city like St. Louis if even that. It is probably pocket change.

Here you contradict yourself yet again. You say cities don't matter in determining national numbers yet insist cities be omitted.

🙄

If the opportunity cost of borrowing versus saving was properly priced, we wouldn't have massive capital malinvestment and capital speculation at the expense of savings/capital appreciation for the LAST 25 YEARS. The younger generations have no clue about this.

It's all grasshopper and no ants.

The biggest problem in today's housing market is not mortgage rates.

Rather - it's homeowners clutching onto an unsustainable amount of homeowner equity.

Today, homeowners have over $34 trillion in equity on their houses - more than 2x higher than the 2006 bubble.

It's the biggest homeowner equity bubble ever. And it's keeping hard-working Americans locked out from buying a house (because prices are too high).

Sellers who come to market today are often refusing to cut the price to the market-clearing price, and even de-listing their homes. This is further perpetuating the worst housing affordability crisis we've seen in 40 years.

The solution: home prices need to correct, by around 15-20% on a national basis, to bring the market back into balance with homebuyer incomes and interest rates. This type of correction will not be that damaging to the economy, since most homeowners would still have plenty of equity. (in this scenario, homeowner equity would drop to around $25 trillion - still almost double 2006).

It's important that lenders, realtors, investors, and government officials understand that unsustainable prices and homeowner equity levels are what is creating the worst home sales transaction market in decades.

Not mortgage rates.



https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1952032852419252609