patrick.net

Misc says

AD says

Seems like the homes that are selling in Florida have a 20% discount from all time high price in early 2022, or at least in Panama City Beach

The condition of those homes with the 20% price cut should also be taken into consideration.

OTOH that pending homes chart is also showing things too upbeat. There are also record numbers of contracts that just don't work out. So the real sales numbers are really in the gutter.

These are no more than 12 year old townhomes in at least good shape.

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MolotovCocktail says

I guess this means Dallas is a coastal city, according to the Housing Experts of PatNet.

It's 4h25m to Galveston. Thats a weekend trip to the coast. I make a drive like that up to WI every month in the summer to get on a lake because IL doesn't have good ones.

If you can go to the beach on a weekend, you're coastal. Pack Thursday night and leave at 7am Friday. Leave Sunday at 2-3pm. That's coastal. You can argue all you want about this, but this is where and why most people live in the places they do. Coastal areas. Houses are priced higher 5 hours within the coast and only get higher the closer you get. When there's a downturn they drag the national average down, but most don't feel it in the rest of the nation.

Then there's shitty cities like Minneapolis. Overbuilt Denver and Phoenix (still semi coastal, not Denver). Arkansas and Missouri are different animals. Got one user driving through them now. The value drops there are a nothing burger compared to coastal regions.

It's okay to admit you don't understand real estate. Let me know how many years you've been in the business or run a business?

SunnyvaleCA says

Fortwaye says

People know the tax difference. This isn’t opening anyone’s eyes. You guys need to lower taxes on the rest somehow.

You might be surprised. My ancient neighbor ($1100/year) didn't seem to realize.

There are some pretty big differences in prices in my neighborhood. Check out $1113 jumping to $33,104 on change of ownership. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

That’s insane, 3 million. To be fair if someone can afford 3 million to buy a house, they can afford 30k tax.

I’m still shocked by how much money people have out there paying so much.

SunnyvaleCA says

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Crap box.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

SunnyvaleCA says

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Crap box.

I actually went to the open house when it was for sale. Particularly interesting to me because it's the exact same house as my shack. (Well, technically it's a mirror image.) The original owner still had almost all completely original house! Pink tiles in the guest bathroom; thin plywood doors on the kitchen cabinets with black-painted wrought-iron handles! Oven and cooktop actually looked original, too, if you can believe that. It was like visiting a time-capsule. Funny enough, the buyer didn't bulldoze the whole thing. Instead if been rehabilitated ... STILL being rehabilitated after 1.5 years. It's nearly done. But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

SunnyvaleCA says

But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

I can think of a million other scenarios I'd rather find myself in.

SunnyvaleCA says

But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

$300k is insane for a rehab of 1,555sf. Our new place is $700k roughly at 2,400sf with 4,800sf total with basement. Basement, driveway, 200' of sidewalk, landscaping, lots and of course the interior and exterior shit. All new from the ground up. Not cheap builder grade stuff either. I'd love to get $3M for my house but that's retarded.

WookieMan says

But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

This is life in the Bay Area.

WookieMan says

$300k is insane for a rehab of 1,555sf.

As BACAH notes, this is California with an extra bonus cost for Bay Area. If you wanted to bulldoze, you'd pay a bundle just for the bulldozing of hazardous materials (lead paint mitigation and probably also small amounts of asbestos) and then the building permits would be expensive and slow down the works even more.

A while back there was a house that came to internet fame because it had suffered a fairly extensive fire damage but went up on Zillow "as is." It promptly sold for $xxx above asking all-cash. That got me thinking that, actually, a burned out house might allow you to skip some of the extra costs associated with bulldozing a house, so buying such a house would actually fetch a premium because it is already destroyed.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Crap box.

Only bought because they work in Sillycon Valley. Not like its a Baby Boomer or recently retired Gen X'er vacation home in Panama City Beach.

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WookieMan says

Not cheap

You really need to stop basing your reality on Dumfuq, IL.

You do not know what the words 'not cheap' mean

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

Not cheap

You really need to stop basing your reality on Dumfuq, IL.

You do not know what the words 'not cheap' mean

Is AD lying when he talks about townhomes in PCB? High $200's. Minutes from the gulf.

Here's some data and links. All are below $400k and closer to around $300k and a few new.

MO: On water and a dock included https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1034-Indian-Pointe_Osage-Beach_MO_65065_M89125-41916

FL: Probably somewhat near AD. Community amenities and close to amazing beaches. Far enough from the shore to likely avoid storm surge. Can't avoid the wind. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/The-Aldridge_Liberty_6225-Chapman-Lane_Panama-City_FL_32404_P417000746682

IL: Not near me. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2230-Barbera-Dr_Oswego_IL_60543_M94606-46827

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/507-Sangamon-Ln_Dixon_IL_61021_M80139-59679

https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/illinois/chicago/malta/prairie-springs/aspen/18918710831

WI: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/301-Harbour-Town-Dr-Apt-326_Madison_WI_53717_M78159-10302

MT: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/917-N-17th-Ave-Apt-3_Bozeman_MT_59715_M85556-10308

AZ: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2609-N-65th-Dr_Phoenix_AZ_85035_M18172-88318

OH: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1011-Brookview-Blvd_Cleveland_OH_44134_M31969-68548

I could go on forever. There are plenty of homes out there for 3-4x a McDonalds two income home. CA is not the country. There are plenty of cheap homes out there. You selectively quoted as usual. I was talking about the materials.

WookieMan says

Not cheap builder grade stuff either.

Let me know the last house you built. I'll wait.

WookieMan says

Let me know the last house you built

What does that have to do with anything?

You don't know shit outside of Dumfuq, IL on that topic, either. ESPECIALLY on that topic.

WookieMan says

You selectively quoted as usual.

Right. You make universalist statements all based on Dumfuq, IL. I quote you and...that's 'selective quoting'?

One can not make 'selective' quoting out of universalist statements. Just like something AND something else is not something AND/OR something else except in your little world as well.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

Let me know the last house you built

What does that have to do with anything?

You don't know shit outside of Dumfuq, IL on that topic, either. ESPECIALLY on that topic.

I actually do. It's okay you don't know. You're talking about land value, not building materials and labor. Building costs are generally universal across the country. They're within 5%-10% on the high end, which really is nothing. $20-40k on your average home build. Custom mansions is completely different. A 1,500sf home rehabbed or new build is about the same nationwide price wise.

My house would cost the same in CA as IL. It's the value of the land. Patrick has brought this up before with Georgism or whatever the term is.

Again. I'm also talking about the materials. Trumps gold bathroom is going to be more expensive than mine with Kohler plumbing fixtures. While you probably go with Glacier Bay. Something I use 30-60min a day is important to me.

As usual, you're missing the point. Tear down the house and rebuild it. The value is in the location of the land.

WookieMan says

As usual, you're missing the point. Tear down the house and rebuild it. The value is in the location of the land.

The land here is really expensive, but I think you are wrong about the cost of building. It's more like 2x the cost compared to other states. Between higher labor costs, sales tax (nearly 10%), higher cost of materials (because the warehouses that hold the stuff have to charge more because it costs them more), etc. And then there's permitting; that alone can cause stratospheric costs and long delays.

Just look at the California "high speed" train to nowhere... 10 years in, billions spent, and not a single foot of track laid.

Or look at the improved southern approach to the Golden Gate Bridge — a series of upgraded approach roads. It cost more than the original Golden Gate Bridge even after adjusting for inflation.

WookieMan says

Is AD lying when he talks about townhomes in PCB? High $200's. Minutes from the gulf.

here you go boy

this one sold recently and look at how far it is away from the world's best beaches, boy ...

and the starting hourly wage for service workers is now $16 an hour on average in Panama City Beach, according to what I've learned going to the local economic development alliance meetings and also from bubba/redneck friends who I fish with

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1882-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87630869_zpid/

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WookieMan says

There are plenty of homes out there for 3-4x a McDonalds two income home.

yeah boy, i could take you about 45 minutes north of panama city beach and there are homes (not trailers) selling for around $230,000

i think i saw a dr horton or toll brothers ad about a new single family detached homes selling for $225,000 near chipley or defuniak springs (about an hour north of panama city beach)

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SunnyvaleCA says

The land here is really expensive, but I think you are wrong about the cost of building. It's more like 2x the cost compared to other states. Between higher labor costs, sales tax (nearly 10%), higher cost of materials (because the warehouses that hold the stuff have to charge more because it costs them more), etc. And then there's permitting; that alone can cause stratospheric costs and long delays.

Ahem, Homie: we are wrong and he knows.

Because he is an Expert on just about everything: day to day life in California and the Bay Area, real estate values in the Florida Panhandle, aviation, aerospace, manufacturing, military combat. Oh yeah, and what exactly is a "coastal" region (like Dallas Texas).

MolotovCocktail says

You don't know shit outside of Dumfuq, IL on that topic, either. ESPECIALLY on that topic.

Yes he does. He Knows It All. No bother posting a disagreement.

Just kick back and enjoy the entertainment of hilarious over-the-top assertions.

AD says

this one sold recently and look at how far it is away from the world's best beaches, boy ...

When talking condos/townhomes note that most tent to have high HOA fees. Your example has an HOA fee of $420/mo.

WookieMan says

You're talking about land value, not building materials and labor.

I think you are confusing me for what someone else posted.

WookieMan says

My house would cost the same in CA as IL.

Really? Tell me. Do IL require basically two plumbing systems in order to deal with grey water? Or is that optional per the person having the home built (because they are California Fuktards moving in). Just one example.

HeadSet says

When talking condos/townhomes note that most tent to have high HOA fees. Your example has an HOA fee of $420/mo.

Yeah, but the HO-3 or HO-6 insurance is lower since the insurer knows that the HOA covers "master insurance" (i.e., coverage of "dry wall out"), and other home ownership costs are saved such as on landscaping and replacement of the roof.

I drove by a DR Horton community northwest of Panama City Beach (about an hour away) and they were showing around $240,000 for single detached homes with garages. I suspect the HOA assessment is no more than $50 a month there.

AD says

I drove by a DR Horton community northwest of Panama City Beach (about an hour away) and they were showing around $240,000 for single detached homes with garages. I suspect the HOA assessment is no more than $50 a month there.

With teaser rate incentives. Why pay just $20-40k less for an 80s-90s era ranch at the full rate with no teaser? Any "Savings" in price is just the minimal amount to bring things up to date, clean out the ducts, replace the water heaters and countertops, get rid of the dark grout spaced "Florida Tile", paint over the billard green walls, the handle-less white (now off-white from age/dust) cabinets with the darker wood colored frame, replace the rose-colored sink with the crystal ball faucet, Duran Duran era golden-framed mirrors and built-ins if any, etc. Oh, and end up with 100-200 sq ft less under air if one picks the older house, too. And likely a smaller garage if any at all.

At least there's no Hotel California wood paneling.

This real estate market (nationally) is so interesting. Once time and increasing demographic pressure pries the "sticky upwards" mentality finally off the wound, prices will collapse. Fed could drop the rates 2% and it won't prevent the inevitable price discovery.

WookieMan says

As usual, you're missing the point. Tear down the house and rebuild it. The value is in the location of the land.

LOL You are almost correct even in CA with little extra prices, ONLY if you can keep few wood/bricks from old the house in its place to keep the CA Prop 13 Ponzi Scheme property taxes to show that its a "repair" ;)
On a second "repair", that old ugly patch get replaced as well ;)
Under CA Prop 13, you never ever use certain words like "rebuild" to maintain 1970s taxes forever!

Blue says

Under CA Prop 13, you never ever use certain words like "rebuild" to maintain 1970s taxes forever!

100% get that. My point overall is you're given the land for free the cost to build is within 5-10% up or down nationwide. It's not necessarily more expensive to build in CA. Probably more expensive in WY or MT because it has to ship further with no water routes. This is basic economics.

AD says

Yeah, but the HO-3 or HO-6 insurance is lower since the insurer knows that the HOA covers "master insurance"

Thanks, I may be able to use that info, as I am looking at a place to but for my daughter and I ruled out condos with high HOA fees. I will now check to see the insurance offset on any place that looks doable.

PanicanDemoralizer says

With teaser rate incentives. Why pay just $20-40k less for an 80s-90s era ranch at the full rate with no teaser?

What the fuck are you talking about boy ? These are brand new homes, and in the best part of the USA , a rural part of Florida panhandle and only a 30 minute drive to the Alabama border

"I drove by a DR Horton community northwest of Panama City Beach (about an hour away) and they were showing around $240,000 for single detached homes with garages. I suspect the HOA assessment is no more than $50 a month there."

AD says

What the fuck are you talking about boy ? These are brand new homes, and in the best part of the USA , a rural part of Florida panhandle and only a 30 minute drive to the Alabama border

I'm not talking about those, I agree 110% with what you say:

PanicanDemoralizer says

With teaser rate incentives. Why pay just $20-40k less for an 80s-90s era ranch at the full rate with no teaser?

I'm comparing what delulu used home sellers are asking for vs. the new builds YOU are talking about. And adding the fact most builders are offering builder-financed teaser incentive rates well below what qualified mortgage applicants would get for a used house from their bank.

But it was kinda of unclear and I could have worded it better.

The same thing is happening on the Space Coast. An 80s-90s Ranch is in the high $200k's - but the brand new build in the same neighborhood is going for barely over $300k with more square feet under air and new everything AND a bigger garage to boot plus the 2-year teaser rate offered by the builder which the used house seller cannot match.

This is why used home sellers are fucked in Florida but haven't realized it yet and haven't accepted post-COVID reality.

PanicanDemoralizer says

This is why used home sellers are fucked in Florida but haven't realized it yet and haven't accepted post-COVID reality.

yeah, forgot the name of the reliable poster who lives in central Florida and posts about Titusville and Merritt Island concrete blocks homes built in 1960s

but from my first hand observations, townhomes in Panama City Beach are selling if they are discounted about 20% from their all time high prices set in early 2022

PD, have you SEEN any of the garbage quality on these new builds that these asshole “builders” are putting out these days? If you’re not working with a custom builder of quality or doing it yourself, you are playing craps. Take a gander at the absolute trash these home inspectors are exposing on BadTube….

Same dude, altered username.

Rents have collapsed here. Was over $2000 easy for a two bed, even on the mainland during and a bit after COVID. Now under $1700, including some decent 90s-2000s era entire houses.

PanicanDemoralizer says

Same dude, altered username.

Rents have collapsed here. Was over $2000 easy for a two bed, even on the mainland during and a bit after COVID. Now under $1700, including some decent 90s-2000s era entire houses.

yeah you have been following the Space Coast market for a while

same here in best place on Earth (Florida panhandle) as far as rents at early 2021 levels for 3 bedroom townhomes

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Back in the 90's, I could rent a 2-bedroom, one bath pad in TX for $240 a month.

Then shit went fucking insane.

ForcedTQ says

PD, have you SEEN any of the garbage quality on these new builds that these asshole “builders” are putting out these days? If you’re not working with a custom builder of quality or doing it yourself, you are playing craps. Take a gander at the absolute trash these home inspectors are exposing on BadTube….

Yeah, some really blow. I'm still not thinking about touching jack and shit for at least a couple of years to buy again.

My idea would be a 90s-2000s build where Grandpa and Grandma actually did something to keep up the retirement home over the past decades and, if lucky, replaced the ol' Florida Contractor Special grout-gap tile for gapless Vinyl/PVC Tile. Problem with homes older than that is no Walk-Ins. I got kids and guns and lawyers and paperwork that need to be kept under air but locked up. Hard to lock sliding/accordion doors, and then you have no space for actual clothes.

The funniest thing about Florida is the Old Person Mail Patrol. "He's usually here at 1PM. Where the hell is he! It's 2:30 already! I'm calling the Post office to report him."

Soc Sec does direct deposit these days, and probably every kind of pension is now direct deposit, so it can't be those things. But I guess they just want to see the print out summary of it all.

WookieMan says

It's not necessarily more expensive to build in CA. Probably more expensive in WY or MT because it has to ship further with no water routes. This is basic economics.

Basic economics says that massive regulation causing all sorts of restrictions means costs skyrocket. And if you want to build a whole development complex (to amortize the permits and other government-related restrictions) you'll be forced to put in subsidized "low income" units and special handicapped units and have special "green" areas. Parking will have to be in a vertical garage because heaven forbid you take up more green space. All houses now have to have hookup for solar panels. Many places disallow natural gas, so you'll be building heat-pump heating.

stereotomy says

Back in the 90's, I could rent a 2-bedroom, one bath pad in TX for $240 a month.

Then shit went fucking insane.

I rented a 1 bedroom unit for $300 (included electric and water) in 1993 in Panama City Beach, it was a very nice garage apartment

same unit likely rents for $1500

about a 5% annual increase in rent over last 32 years

ForcedTQ says

PD, have you SEEN any of the garbage quality on these new builds that these asshole “builders” are putting out these days? If you’re not working with a custom builder of quality or doing it yourself, you are playing craps. Take a gander at the absolute trash these home inspectors are exposing on BadTube….

yeah we got around a $185,000 brand new 3 bedroom, 2 car garage townhome in Panama City Beach in 2016

its not perfect but its a nice home and a very good deal

yes there were punch list items we had to take care of on our own

it also held up very good in hurricane michael with +180 mile wind gusts

and citizen insurance (essentially a state run insurance) sent an adjuster / inspector to our home to inspect it prior to approving our insurance coverage and he said its a good solid home

.

MolotovCocktail says

Homes were never, ever meant to be (near guaranteed) slot machines. Most people considered breaking even on a house was a pretty damn good deal.

You can look up addresses on Zillow to find what it'd cost per month to buy ('refi"), and what it'd cost per month to rent. It says my residence would be $7k per month to own, $4300 to rent. That's an "ownership premium" of 63%, which I think is insane. Folks are still buying.

This is why homie is not impressed when "Bay Area, Cool And Hip" homeowners Talk Smug.

B.A.C.A.H. says

MolotovCocktail says

Homes were never, ever meant to be (near guaranteed) slot machines. Most people considered breaking even on a house was a pretty damn good deal.

You can look up addresses on Zillow to find what it'd cost per month to buy ('refi"), and what it'd cost per month to rent. It says my residence would be $7k per month to won, $4300 to rent. That's an "ownership premium" of 63%, which I think is insane. Folks are still buying.

This is why homie is not impressed when "Bay Area, Cool And Hip" homeowners Talk Smug.

If they can afford it and believe the prices will rise forever, it makes sense to own even though it costs more to do so.

B.A.C.A.H. says

You can look up addresses on Zillow to find what it'd cost per month to buy ('refi"), and what it'd cost per month to rent. It says my residence would be $7k per month to won, $4300 to rent. That's an "ownership premium" of 63%, which I think is insane. Folks are still buying.

Around here, that same Zillow shows about a $2,000 "ownership premium" on a million-dollar home. if so, I cannot see why so many people are buying, especially when closing costs are added in. I would assume that the owners of million dollar homes do not want to rent them out so renting is not really a choice.