patrick.net

Aaron Clarey had a great intro that was similar:

"I worked at the Lumber Mill for a year while your mother waited tables part time at Earl's cafe, took my pay stub to Community Bank, and we brought our first Ranch house! You just need to bootstrappity and roll your sleeves up!"

Booger says

And I’m pretty sure it’s going to stay like this.

Glock-n-Load says

And I’m pretty sure it’s going to stay like this.

Unsold at that price or even one 20% off of it?

Yup.

MolotovCocktail says

Glock-n-Load says

And I’m pretty sure it’s going to stay like this.

Unsold at that price or even one 20% off of it?

Yup.

I don’t understand your question/comment.

Glock-n-Load says

MolotovCocktail says

Glock-n-Load says

And I’m pretty sure it’s going to stay like this.

Unsold at that price or even one 20% off of it?

Yup.

I don’t understand your question/comment.

So we know what it sold for?

Glock-n-Load says

MolotovCocktail says

Glock-n-Load says

And I’m pretty sure it’s going to stay like this.

Unsold at that price or even one 20% off of it?

Yup.

I don’t understand your question/comment.

@Glock-n-Load

MolotovCocktail was saying that "going to stay like this" can be interpreted to mean that that house will stay unsold at the current price, and still stay unsold at 20% off.

He's saying prices need to fall a lot to make sales now.

Patrick says

Glock-n-Load says

MolotovCocktail says

Glock-n-Load says

And I’m pretty sure it’s going to stay like this.

Unsold at that price or even one 20% off of it?

Yup.

I don’t understand your question/comment.

Glock-n-Load

MolotovCocktail was saying that "going to stay like this" can be interpreted to mean that that house will stay unsold at the current price, and still stay unsold at 20% off.

He's saying prices need to fall a lot to make sales now.

In general, yes. Even Interest rate cuts will only effect sales at current prices on.the margin.

MolotovCocktail says

MolotovCocktail says

But don't worry. Housing Experts on PatNet have assured us this will only effect coasts and cities.

MolotovCocktail says

But don't worry. Housing Experts on PatNet have assured us this will only effect coasts and cities.

.

Lumber is at spring of 2018 price levels. It looks like lumber prices steadily climbed from 2015 to 2018.

.



.

I love Wall Street apes, and it's true the market can stay INSANE for longer than you can keep your short going or economically possess puts, but eventually there is price discovery.

There are two things in life that are inevitable, as Franklin said, death and taxes. And bum knees and strokes after 70 despite the Centrum Silver and Mall Walks.

Not only are the kids gonna be alright, in the end they might get a deal better than the luckiest of all Boomers got who brought at the precise time the interest rate-home price balance was in the sweetest of spots.

I can't see the meme he posted anymore but, it ain't gonna go back to the way it was before. I'm just going out on a limb and predicting that house prices will stay elevated for a long time. Loooong time.

GNL says

I'm just going out on a limb and predicting that house prices will stay elevated for a long time. Loooong time.

How? Who's going to pay those prices?

How can they?

I can't believe that after all the data about income-to house prices ratios and undeniable demographic trends ppl here still refuse to accept reality.

But then again, there's Coastal Wookie, so...

In the past I bought a condo on Sand Key, Fl on the beach. I purchased it from an engineer that had places around the world. Upon closing he shook my hand and said “congratulations, you bought a million dollar view, and you're gonna pay for it!” 6 mos later the assessments started rolling in. 20k, then 5k, then 5k. Fixed income seniors were bailing left and right. 7 years later I doubled my money at got out.

SharkyP says

In the past I bought a condo on Sand Key, Fl on the beach. I purchased it from an engineer that had places around the world. Upon closing he shook my hand and said “congratulations, you bought a million dollar view, and you're gonna pay for it!” 6 mos later the assessments started rolling in. 20k, then 5k, then 5k. Fixed income seniors were bailing left and right. 7 years later I doubled my money at got out.

So he was wrong, correct?

MolotovCocktail says

But then again, there's Coastal Wookie, so...

You saw Patrick's recent map post that proves my point on values. You guys live in a different world. It's 2025 and you can make the same amount in most parts of the country. Coastal it gets to 10X income. I agree that's happening. The center of the country you can get 3-5x income to price no problem unless you're working at McDonalds. Even then you might pull it off.

Fact is I could move from LA or SF and buy the same house for hundreds of thousands less, maybe a million. LA to Austin. Yes that means LA prices will eventually drop. Austin will rise, but from a lower baseline value. Same thing for NYC retirees. Sold their expensive places and bought cheaper in the south. It drags down the average and median and everyone freaks because I think we all lived through the housing crash.

It's high priced markets correcting, not crashing and actually lower priced markets are booming. So the median and average sales price goes down nationally. It's movements from cities to suburbs and rural. It's not a crash. With higher (normal) interest rates people are moving to lower cost of living place and work from home. This is basic stuff.

I get why city and coastal people would be upset. Values there are dropping. I'd make the move now. It's only going to get worse as millennials have school aged children and get their kids into better schools away from city centers and coastal areas.

My crew of buddies all 90% work from home. Maybe 10% are blue collar, but they do well for 30-40ish. They can live in cheap homes in the midwest. Hell two of my best buds live in Gallatin county, MT with average price of $700k. They both bought house for $280k roughly. This excuse that housing is unaffordable generally comes from people that don't make money.

WookieMan says

I get why city and coastal people would be upset. Values there are dropping. I'd make the move now. It's only going to get worse as millennials have school aged children and get their kids into better schools away from city centers and coastal areas.

Only about 3% of homes in the Bay Area are bought/sold each year. (Look it up if you don't believe me). It means the dropping values are a Big Yawn non-event for those who've owned, which is the huge majority of us, for more than a few years.

What we're upset about is that in spite of the recent declines our kids and renter friends are still priced out. For all but a few of us, we desire a much more huge drop.

By your logic, It's only going to get worse   better with a more massive drop as millennials will be able to afford to have school aged children and get their kids into better schools away from city centers and coastal areas.

B.A.C.A.H. says

By your logic, It's only going to get worse   better with a more massive drop as millennials will be able to afford to have school aged children and get their kids into better schools away from city centers and coastal areas.

Overall I think we're in agreement. Problem is price drops result in less tax revenue. That equates to worse schools. You've mentioned before the foreigners will fill the void, but that's a CA thing.

My point on all this is cities and coastal areas are dying. Even boomers are buying in my town and getting out of the suburbs at least. Millennials are buying leaving high end suburban and Chicago. They will never go back. A few might have a studio crash pad I suppose, but you gotta be making $200k plus for two properties and do it as a part time vacation rental.

I've had my fun in cities and mid sized cities, but they're going to get smashed as rural and small suburbs boom.

SharkyP says

In the past I bought a condo on Sand Key, Fl on the beach. I purchased it from an engineer that had places around the world. Upon closing he shook my hand and said “congratulations, you bought a million dollar view, and you're gonna pay for it!” 6 mos later the assessments started rolling in. 20k, then 5k, then 5k. Fixed income seniors were bailing left and right. 7 years later I doubled my money at got out.

One of the better DeSantis reforms is buyers must be provided Condo Assoc minutes and budgets going back quite a while.

Guy probably knew the Assoc was about to approve a buncha assessments.

90% of the Condo stuff in Florida is because Seniors kept delaying maintenance for many decades, and think that Concrete, Brick, and Steel buildings last forever without repairs. Salty Sea Air is a bitch and Limestone is worn down by slightly acidic rain, especially if there's a massive weight on it.

PanicanDemoralizer says

Guy probably knew the Assoc was about to approve a buncha assessments.

Yep you ask as a buyer all the information as well as if there is an upcoming vote (in that year) of a special assessment

and you also try to see if they are siphoning from the reserves

and get a feel for the total or big picture as far as not just the regular assessments but also how well they fund reserves, how well they maintain the property, etc

WookieMan says

You guys live in a different world

Yes. The Real World.

...and this ain't it:

WookieMan says

My crew of buddies all 90% work from home. Maybe 10% are blue collar, but they do well for 30-40ish. They can live in cheap homes in the midwest. Hell two of my best buds live in Gallatin county, MT with average price of $700k. They both bought house for $280k roughly. This excuse that housing is unaffordable generally comes from people that don't make money.

WookieMan says

I've had my fun in cities and mid sized cities, but they're going to get smashed as rural and small suburbs boom.

Yes, no. Exurbs have been the fastest growing areas for 25 years now. But when demographic/immigration reductions happen, towns get abandoned and the large cities become sponges. That's because it doesn't take much depopulation for the local services to shut down, thus forcing the rest of the locals to leave. Bars, medical clinics, restaurants, police, grocery stores.

We'll see if the exurbs can absorb this 'collapse flight' instead of just the cities. I am guessing many will.

MolotovCocktail says

Yes. The Real World.

...and this ain't it:

WookieMan says
My crew of buddies all 90% work from home. Maybe 10% are blue collar, but they do well for 30-40ish. They can live in cheap homes in the midwest. Hell two of my best buds live in Gallatin county, MT with average price of $700k. They both bought house for $280k roughly. This excuse that housing is unaffordable generally comes from people that don't make money.

I guess I don't hang with losers?? A male or female in IL can have a blue collar job flipping a stop/slow paddle and make prevailing wage. $40/hr. Overtime is up to $90 per hour which there's a lot of here because of weather conditions. Any John/Jane Doe could move to IL and make $90-100k AND collect unemployment when they're laid off in the cold months.

Dual income household at say $180k X 3 is a $540k home within reason. If you have more down payment could be $600-800k. Times have changed. $600k in IL is a beautiful home 9 out of 10 times. The taxes will suck though.

My reality is not yours. Yours is not mine. 31% live on the coast so 69% live inland. My life is the majority. So yes, you don't live in the real world. You live in an inflated pile of trash. Shit on the streets. Below average coast. I'll give AD one on this though in PCB, the beaches are top notch and emerald water on a calm day. All other coasts are trash.

WookieMan says

I'll give AD one on this though in PCB, the beaches are top notch and emerald water on a calm day. All other coasts are trash.

I noticed rent is now $2000 a month for 3 bedrooms, 2 car garage within 2 miles of the beach in Bay County, Florida. That was what was being charged in mid 2021. Same 3 bedroom townhome could sell for $250,000.

And starting wage for hospitality and service workers is now $16, so its gone up about $3 over last 3 years. So a dual income couple earning $16 each could afford renting as well as afford buying that townhome.

.

I'm thinking 2015. $180-200k and $1400-1500 rents.

Buyers needed.

(These are state thoughts, not specific area thoughts)

WookieMan says

I guess I don't hang with losers??

In Dumfuq, IL?

And is that what you tell yourself to rationalize for being so wrong?

WookieMan says

31% live on the coast so 69% live inland

Wrong. Majority of US population live in coastal states, as you have stated yourself

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
31% live on the coast so 69% live inland

Wrong. Majority of US population live in coastal states, as you have stated yourself

I'm talking price declines when I say coastal. Jesus christ it's like talking to a wall. National metrics go down because of coastal areas that are higher priced. Someone in Iowa gives no shits if Phoenix or Denver prices drop 10-20%. You haven't gotten the point because you're renting in a high priced area and are jealous of owners because you're not one.

When prices go down in LA, Seattle, NYC, SF, San Diego, Tampa, etc it makes everything look worse than it actually is.

How many years did you work 40-60 hours per week in real estate? How many properties have you owned or invested in? How many have you bought and sold? How many of those areas have you visited, especially dumb fuck IL or say WI? I'd bet you haven't been to IL, not even for a layover at the airport. I've been up and down all the coasts in this country and all lower 48 states. I know nothing though.

When did 31% become a majority as well? https://www.middlebury.edu/institute/academics/centers-initiatives/center-blue-economy/about-center-blue-economy/cbe-news/coastal#:~:text=In%202022%20over%20131%20million,34%25%20of%20total%20U.S.%20GDP

WookieMan says

I'm talking price declines when I say coastal. Jesus christ it's like talking to a wall.

Prices don't live on the coasts. Living things do. People, pets...Housing Experts with Cognitive Dissonance issues they try to resolve by posting comments like this ^^^^.

You are talking to a wall. The Wall of Reality That Won't Take Wookie's Bullshit.

WookieMan says

How many years did you work 40-60 hours per week in real estate?..I know nothing though

Yep. You might want to talk to a shrink about that.

WookieMan says

you're renting in a high priced area and are jealous of owners because you're not one.

Who said I rent? That IS ALL made up bullshit in YOUR HEAD that you needed to construct to maintain the psychological projection you need to engage in.

MolotovCocktail says

Who said I rent? That IS ALL made up bullshit in YOUR HEAD that you needed to construct to maintain the psychological projection you need to engage in.

Complaining about housing prices is a tell. You rent. Doesn't take a detective.

WookieMan says

Complaining about housing prices is a tell. You rent. Doesn't take a detective.

So again: 1) You make shit up in your head. 2) You claim that is proof you are right.

So EVERYTHING you claim to be truth is now suspect. Everything. Because you imagine shit up in absense of facts...and then expect the rest of us to play along in Imagination Land.

Also, did it ever occur in your imaginary world that one can own AND fucking rent, eh?

Noooo? Gee! Didn't take a detective to figure that one out.

MolotovCocktail says

I have seen that trick before. Very soon they will drop the price to $1.225 million and claim a "$225,000 price drop" in the listing.

HeadSet says

I have seen that trick before. Very soon they will drop the price to $1.225 million and claim a "$225,000 price drop" in the listing.

Not you specifically, but people don't know the realtor racket. We would do $1 prices cuts to get the listing bumped in buyers MLS feeds from their agent. We put it in the listing agreement and would do it once a week. So that buyer with a search would keep seeing the property weekly. $225k price drop is a bad look for a realtor. $20 over two months is a nothing burger. You just keep seeing the property with tiny cuts. Eventually you catch someone new. No different than fishing.

Other brokers hated us for it, but it got us a showing 1 out of 10 times. Get someone in the door and sell it. Seller signed off on it and we'd have to back it up and always had documentation. Hated my boss/owner, but it was a damn good strategy. Just annoying because I had to do it every week with 80 listings.

WookieMan says

Complaining about housing prices is a tell. You rent. Doesn't take a detective.

Not a detective. Just someone who (arrogantly) thinks they know what is inside the mind of all others.

I am not a renter, but me and many other non-renters like me complain all the time about the high house prices. Because it's making life miserable here for almost everyone.

B.A.C.A.H. says

I am not a renter, but me and many other non-renters like me complain all the time about the high house prices. Because it's making life miserable here for almost everyone.

That too. But his imaginary world is the real one.

Even in that world, his logic is flawed. As an owner, wouldn't one want as large a buying pool as possible when you want to sell in the future? And that isn't happening in the real world and is only going to get worse as things stand.

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says
Complaining about housing prices is a tell. You rent. Doesn't take a detective.

Not a detective. Just someone who (arrogantly) thinks they know what is inside the mind of all others.

I am not a renter, but me and many other non-renters like me complain all the time about the high house prices. Because it's making life miserable here for almost everyone.

Hey WookieMan, my remark got three "likes" within a couple hours of posting. How many did yours accusing MolotovCocktail of being a (jealous) renter get?

WookieMan says

We would do $1 prices cuts to get the listing bumped in buyers MLS feeds

How about a phony price reduction so a listing can claim a new $39,000 cut?



Notice that on Aug 20, they raised and lowered the price by $39k and now the listing flags and advertises a "$39,000 price reduction."

B.A.C.A.H. says

Hey WookieMan, my remark got three "likes" within a couple hours of posting. How many did yours accusing MolotovCocktail of being a (jealous) renter get?

It's good to get back up! Thanks.

Notice how he shut the fuck up now?

Also see: https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2200738