patrick.net

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Help paying mortgage or help getting a mortgage? Need some distinction on that graph. Signing mortgage docs tomorrow, we had no problems getting one. Paying it, I don't know. Most my peers are pretty open about their housing situation. They're all solid and so are we.

I'm not going to name locations as I'll get the usual shit show. There are places that prices will drop. Most of the country is on solid ground. Sideways or up/down 5%. There will be a few areas that get beaten up specifically. Denver, Nashville, Boise, Orlando as you mentioned, Austin and anything along the east or west coast. But 5-10% down will likely be the max over the next 2 years as far as value loss. Loans are solid and interest rates from 3 years ago are keeping people in place. The floor is high price wise in markets that go down. Also lenders will be hesitant to foreclose. We'd need a massive job loss scenario.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Can you explain what this is telling us?

GNL says

"Can you explain what this is telling us?"

@GNL, It is an attempt to show historical mortgage rates and it fails to do so.
See my next post for such a graph going back to 1971.

The_Deplorable says

By 2004 the Housing bubble was obvious and according to the Fed Minutes,
Alan Greenspan ignored it and it is with us to this day.

GNL says

Can you explain what this is telling us?

@GNL

It's showing the number of people searching on a search engine for "help with mortgage" and that it's the same as 2008, the last big housing crash.

WookieMan says

lenders will be hesitant to foreclose. We'd need a massive job loss scenario.

I don't understand why lenders would be hesitant to forclouses although here in NY it's a LONG process start to finish.

As for massive job loss, that's not out of the realm of possiblity. True unemployment is still historically low but at least here in the Northeast, the job market is tightening.

GreaterNYCDude says

I don't understand why lenders would be hesitant to forclouses although here in NY it's a LONG process start to finish.

Forbearance. I got into RE pre-bust. The process to foreclose is massively more expensive to banks. They give you two months off and tack it on the back end. The problem was way too large 2006-2008. Any problem now is trivial. Certain locations will go down, not the entire nation. Those locations will have to deal.

As I've said the floor is high on any price drops in most places. It's been 15 years plus since the housing bust. Do a linear graph in your area when data started being recorded. With inflation we're mostly still on a normal path in most locations.

I hate national. Top orangish line would be bad. Red line is the path we're on. I'm not seeing a problem as many markets are basically stalling. Do not expect housing to become more affordable anytime soon is all I'm saying. If interest rates drop it will be more expensive, unless inventory explodes.

Patrick says

Yes, and that's entirely rational given how dangerous it is to live near high concentrations of blacks.

Patrick, some of your posts very likely make your Violent Left and AntiFa soy boy readers gnash their teeth.

But that is one reason your site exists, as you posted a few years ago about the "freedom to offend".

.

Thanks @AD but I don't think there are any leftist readers of this site. They can't handle the truth.

It's obviously true that it is dangerous to live near high concentrations of blacks and it's because of the content of their character (on average), not the color of their skin. Everyone knows it, but almost no one has the courage to say it.

We don't need to live this way.

Patrick says

Thanks AD but I don't think there are any leftist readers of this site. They can't handle the truth.

It's obviously true that it is dangerous to live near high concentrations of blacks and it's because of the content of their character (on average), not the color of their skin. Everyone knows it, but almost no one has the courage to say it.

We don't need to live this way.

If what you wrote was in that AntiFa and Violent Left chat room where Tyler Robinson made friends, then their heads would explode reading what you wrote.

Short sales are going up. Completed Transactions collapsing.

Buyers are not buying yesterday's shit shacks at the current inflated prices.

3-4% rates will not fix the fundamental issue, inflated prices that average 450% household income nationally, and the housing stock has never been older.

Mortgages up 90%, Salaries only up ~20% in the past few years. NOT including the ~30% rise in insurance and property taxes based on the new inflated prices. The new buyer doesn't pay insurance and tax based on the 2015 price, but on the 2025 price.

Investors have been slowly bailing for almost 8 quarters now. Builders are selling at or below used home comps.

Time for sellers to accept reality, but it will take time. They are still at the huffing and snorting at the Real Estate Agent and "Lowball" offers based in reality, taking their homes off the market and swearing to come back next season or after the rates go back to the not-normal ZIRP era.

Delinquency rate hits 12%

IRVINE, Calif. — September 11, 2025 —ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its August 2025 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows there were a total of 35,697 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings— default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions — down 1 percent from a month ago but up 18 percent from a year ago.

“August marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year increases in U.S. foreclosure activity and the third straight month with double-digit annual growth,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “While overall levels remain below those seen before the pandemic, the ongoing rise in both foreclosure starts and completions suggests that some homeowners may be experiencing added financial strain in the current high-cost and high-interest-rate environment.”

The worst foreclosure rates were in Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida

Nationwide, one in every 3,987 housing units had a foreclosure filing in August 2025. States with the worst foreclosure rates were Nevada (one in every 2,069 housing units with a foreclosure filing); South Carolina (one in every 2,152 housing units); Florida (one in every 2,512 housing units).
...
Nationwide, one in every 3,987 housing units had a foreclosure filing in August 2025. States with the worst foreclosure rates were Nevada (one in every 2,069 housing units with a foreclosure filing); South Carolina (one in every 2,152 housing units); Florida (one in every 2,512 housing units).

Among the 225 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the worst foreclosure rates in August 2025 were Lakeland, FL (one in every 1,212 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Columbia, SC (one in every 1,347 housing units); Chico, CA (one in every 1,545 housing units); Cleveland, OH (one in every 1,755 housing units); and Ocala, FL (one in every 1,816 housing units).

Those major metropolitan areas with a population greater than 1 million with the worst foreclosure rates in August 2025 besides Cleveland were: Las Vegas, NV (one in every 1,817 housing units); Jacksonville, FL (one in every 2,057 housing units); Houston, TX (one in every 2,195 housing units); and Orlando, FL (one in every 2,210 housing units).

Texas, Florida, and California led the nation in foreclosure starts

Lenders started the foreclosure process on 24,254 U.S. properties in August 2025, down slightly at 0.2 percent from last month but up 16.9 percent from a year ago.

https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/august-2025-foreclosure-market-report/

It's a great time to stay on the sidelines!

Insurance Costs Exploding yet again, almost 12% YoY nationally

September 2025 Mortgage Monitor
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Are up 4.9% in 2025, 11.3% Over Last 12 Months

Average property insurance costs have risen nearly 70% over the past five years, outpacing growth in other mortgage-related expenses

ATLANTA & NEW YORK -- (Sept. 8, 2025) – ICE Mortgage Technology, neutral provider of a robust end-to-end mortgage platform and part of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), today released its September 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report, highlighting the continued surge in property insurance costs and its growing impact on overall mortgage affordability.

The report found that the average annual property insurance payment for single-family mortgage holders has climbed to nearly $2,370 per year, accounting for 9.6% of average monthly mortgage-related expenses when factoring in principal, interest, taxes and insurance (PITI). This marks the highest share on record and underscores the disproportionate role insurance costs are playing in rising homeownership expenses.

“Property insurance costs continue to be the fasted growing subcomponent of mortgage payments among existing homeowners,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “While mortgage principal, interest and property tax payments have all increased in recent years, insurance has far outpaced those gains, rising 4.9% in 2025, 11.3% annually and nearly 70% over the past five and a half years. That rapid escalation now means insurance alone consumes almost one in every ten dollars spent on average mortgage-related costs.”

https://mortgagetech.ice.com/resources/data-reports/september-2025-mortgage-monitor

It's a great time not to buy!

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

It's a great time to stay on the sidelines!

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

It's a great time not to buy!

Default rates are still below what they were pre-pandemic. Eventually over the next few years they should revert to the mean. Don't expect any great rush of people who are forced to sell.

Own or rent, you are gonna end up paying for the increase in insurance costs, unless you're living out of your car.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

It's a great time to stay on the sidelines!

Away from the sidelines more like it. Las Vegas will alway be at the whim the gambling. They got their stadiums for pro sports so construction jobs dried up and legal gambling is everywhere in the country so that tourist economy has taken a hit. I couldn't live there.

Cleveland is a weird one, but the few times I've been, total shit hole vibe. No redeeming qualities. Ohio is a strange state if you haven't been. Not as bad as Memphis, TN but close.

Everything else is on the sidelines as in the coasts. 1-2 hours or less to the beach. FL is obvious as retirees without enough savings finance a home down there. Insurance as you mention. South Carolina is a weird one, but as someone from IL and having Boomer family and friends it's a popular spot to buy, so probably inflated. And the random hurricane or flooding chance with insurance.

California is obviously inflated. I don't know when that house of cards comes down. Trump seems to be backpedaling on the H1-B thing.

Surprised Denver or Phoenix weren't in there.

Misc says

Don't expect any great rush of people who are forced to sell.

Average Boomer is 70 and they own ~60% of Residential R/E by value.

Inevitable Demographics, unless the Eagles and Santana and Billy Joel unleash miracle healing powers via speaker.

Nothing the Fed or Government can do to stop it.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Misc says

Don't expect any great rush of people who are forced to sell.

Boomers are 70 and don't own 70% of Residential R/E by value.

Inevitable Demographics, unless the Eagles and Santana and Billy Joel unleash healing powers via speaker.

And what does that mean?

GNL says

And what does that mean?

That means that in about 10 years, at least 35-40% of those now about age 70 will not be with us anymore and probably another 10-20% will be unable to executive enough of their ADLs (Activities of Daily Living: Cleaning, Cooking, Walking up/down Stairs to Basement Laundry or 2nd Floor Bedroom, etc.) to the point they will need some help or downsize.

It means they will be forced to change their living arrangements.



https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2025/

Singing "I will get by" won't stop the Circle of Life.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzvk0fWtCs0

How many are aged 70 and how many are in their homebuying years?

GNL says

How many are aged 70 and how many are in their homebuying years?

Or, who is going to buy their houses when they need to downsize, pay for assisted living, or pass on?

What happens when a million or so extra houses hit the market every year?

First half of Boomers are already in their 70s.
Gen Jones/Second half of Boomers are in their 60s.

The early 60s was a baby bust. The peak Boomer birth year is 1957 with 1955 being the average birth year (by age) of living Boomers.

Pretty much all Boomers except for the much smaller early 60s segment are now eligible for social security and most for Medicare.



Here are the number of persons born and alive in 2020:


In about 15-20 years, we'll have about half as many Boomers as we do today. IF they are as healthy as Silents, which is in question due to a drop in longevity due to higher rates of addiction and rise in obesity (in both sexes) vs. that cohort.

The annual mortality rate after age 65 is approximately 2%. After 75 it's 5%.

If we go by the median Boomer being about 70 years old in 2025, we will lose about 10% of all Boomers by 2030 and 30% by 2035.

That's not including house sales due to ADL downsizing or health cost coverage or transfer/moving in to relatives due to illness, just death.

I'm guessing about a quarter million excess homes going on market each year until 2030, when it will increase to about half a million.

Don't buy residential real estate now, esp. in the Sunbelt.

I dunno..historically the US has had about 5.5 million existing homes sell per year. For this year and last it has come in at about 4.5 million, so there's some room for extra sales. With the number of deaths to increase by about 3 million per year (the Boomer effect), that accounts for the missing 1 million units right there. That's also assuming that new builds equals those that are destroyed/abandoned/become uninhabitable.

Over the last 15 years or so, the occupancy rate per dwelling has been going up quite a bit. The mass media has been Doom saying generation Z's financial picture, and while a lot of it is true, that generation has the highest amount of financial assets for their age of any preceding generation. Their wages aren't bad,, the States are kicking in an average of $10k for new home buyers, and for about 1/2 of them their parents are kicking in some down payment assistance too.
Given the supply/demand dynamics..if interest rate spreads just go back to where they have historically been, I don't see any huge price decreases on a National basis.

Overall. I'd say it's too soon to tell.

I think GenZ is going to get the deal of a century if they wait to about 30-35 to buy their first home.

Millies that aren't on the shitjob wheel already brought a house, will mostly rent or sell the one they inherit (which will glut both the rental and buying market further). Why would they move from their high income NY, CA, IL, MN job to take a bigass pay cut in most of the Sunbelt? The Sunbelt is no longer the bargain it used to be, so it's not mitigated by the lower cost-of-living anymore much except for places like Arkansas.

GenX owns property already.

Who will buy?

In 2035 there will be roughly 3 adults for every person over 65. Again, Boomers own over half the residential real estate in the USA.

Rates won't change a thing. We had low rates for the 2010s and prices didn't rise much, almost all the explosion in house costs was due to COVID and COVIDflation. We had high rates in the 80s and people brought homes like crazy. The fundamental issue is the used house price being too high for incomes.

The reason for the delay in market price discovery is that too many are banking on getting their COVID peak house price. Homeloaners are "Sticky Upwards" in their perception of home value.

It's not the ~$300/month difference on $300k on 6.2% vs. 4.5%. It's that you can rent the same thing for the same or cheaper and not be responsible for roofs, HVAC, gutters, etc. And the higher the fundamental price, the higher the insurance and property tax which are tied to the price, not tied to the rate. For houses brought pre-COVID, buyers at the current price are going to get shlonged for more than $300 in the difference in homeowners and taxes between the seller's carrying cost and the purchase price.

If an area is supply constrained, the actual cost of building a new house (less builder profit) will be the benchmark for $/sqft for existing houses. Some adjustments down to be made for quality of construction/energy efficiency/amenities, but that’s going to be the basis. If you can’t build it for $150/SF, and it’s $180/SF, what rate the mortgage market is currently at isn’t going to mean shit WRT ultimate cost/sale price.

ForcedTQ says

If an area is supply constrained, the actual cost of building a new house (less builder profit) will be the benchmark for $/sqft for existing houses.

Correct. In an area where the growing population is mid to low income, those building costs mean the new neighborhoods will be cluster homes.

https://fortune.com/2025/09/24/housing-costs-so-high-gen-z-millennials-sacrifices-delayed-milestones/

Housing costs are so high some Americans are delaying milestones like getting married, having kids and even adopting a pet

I wonder what this chart looks like in $/SF…

zzyzzx says

One of the lowest quality builders in the nation. The peak is people building and then finding out they got a lemon. They're shit houses. I could see the gossip getting out and no one wanting to buy them in higher markets.

Around my parts they are being sold though at a fast pace. But that's likely what is dragging down selling price. They getting into lower COLA's so the land is cheaper and can still turn a profit on people with $100k family income with $350-425k prices. They doing pre-fab framing so they only need to send a few carpenters to put up a two story house in days. Basically the labor costs are pretty low and the contractors will take any work they can get.

Builder homes are now 4% cheaper than Used Houses nationally. This has never been seen before, not even during the GFC.

Investors are also getting smart.

Homeloaners, not so much.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Builder homes are now 4% cheaper than Used Houses nationally. This has never been seen before, not even during the GFC.

No one is moving with locked in low interest rates on the used homes, so builders have to compete price wise and with rate buy downs, which is a write off for them. Land is still relatively cheap though in most places. Low margins, but if you can bring in $10-20k/house after ALL expenses including all employees, you do it.

My little town Lennar will make $1M at least after CEO pay, employees and contractors. Multiply that by just 50 in the state of IL. Just here they'll make $50-100M over the next two years on low margins.

If Trump gets rates to drop then the builders can remove the interest rate buy downs. I actually like where rates are personally. I think we need a generally sideways track for a while. Some will lose and some will win. But nationally this is not 2007-08.

WookieMan says

No one is moving with locked in low interest rates on the used homes, so builders have to compete price wise and with rate buy downs, which is a write off for them. Land is still relatively cheap though in most places. Low margins, but if you can bring in $10-20k/house after ALL expenses including all employees, you do it.

Homeloaners can't offer ~5% teaser rates, generally don't offer choice of all-new installed flooring and paint, generally don't include all-new appliances, nor offer a whole-house warranty.

What homeloaners can do is cut their asking price very strongly and stop fighting price discovery.

I think the Boomers still have a HUGE impact on prices. We'll have to wait until they're exhausted. I don't know.

Ed Dowd says we're headed for a housing letdown. I don't think I've heard him use the word crash...yet.

I remember when the Japanese Bubble hit Peak Retard when a square meter of the Imperial Grounds was valued more than the entirety of NYC. That was sometime in the 90s.

Extreme example? Only could happen in Japan and in that particular era? Perhaps.

But this below. It's pretty close to it, America-style. And the Housing Experts of PatNet will try to spin it like they always have. Just watch...



Looky! A Hipster Coastal City...NOT!

MolotovCocktail says

I remember when the Japanese Bubble hit Peak Retard when a square meter of the Imperial Grounds was valued more than the entirety of NYC. That was sometime in the 90s.

Extreme example? Only could happen in Japan and in that particular era? Perhaps.

But this below. It's pretty close to it, America-style. And the Housing Experts of PatNet will try to spin it like they always have. Just watch...



Looky! A Hipster Coastal City...NOT!

I guess each of the two bedrooms are about 150 square feet each, and the kitchen/dining area/living room are 300 square feet.

MolotovCocktail says

Looky! A Hipster Coastal City...NOT!

It's a 5 hour drive to East Beach Galveston. There's also Lavon lake a very short drive. Commute to Dallas or its nearby suburbs.

Those tiny houses are fine as at most you'd have a girl friend or buddy living there and you don't have to share a wall with a neighbor like a townhome. And you can also own your own home. These tiny homes are about as hipster as you can get. As mentioned 5 hours to the beach. This would check both the boxes I've made clear in other posts. It's a place for 22-32 year old people.

Princeton is a city in Collin County, Texas, United States. The population was 17,027 at the 2020 census, and was estimated to be 37,019 in 2024. Princeton, Texas, as of 2025, is currently the fastest-growing city in the United States. Wikipedia

20,000 people in 4 years..... totally not hipster.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/19/condo-prices-dropped-by-12-27-in-these-25-bigger-cities-through-august-condo-bust-update/

Condo prices in Killeen, TX, a little over an hour north of Austin, have collapsed by 40% since the peak in mid-2022 and have given up the entire 52% spike from mid-2020 to mid-2022, plus some. The spike had been driven by FOMO-madness and the Fed’s Free Money policies. This is one of the fastest-growing cities around; its population has surged by 35% in the past 15 years to 160,000 in 2024.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/sauve-qui-peut

Real estate here in Idaho ballooned too much, I’m thinking of moving again to a cheaper state.

Wanted to buy some land to open up shop… commercial lots go for 900k here, screw that i don’t even get who would pay that. Used to be 100k, missed my boat I guess. I dont see how it’s even possible to make money with costs so high.