patrick.net

Delinquency rate hits 12%

IRVINE, Calif. — September 11, 2025 —ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its August 2025 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows there were a total of 35,697 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings— default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions — down 1 percent from a month ago but up 18 percent from a year ago.

“August marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year increases in U.S. foreclosure activity and the third straight month with double-digit annual growth,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “While overall levels remain below those seen before the pandemic, the ongoing rise in both foreclosure starts and completions suggests that some homeowners may be experiencing added financial strain in the current high-cost and high-interest-rate environment.”

The worst foreclosure rates were in Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida

Nationwide, one in every 3,987 housing units had a foreclosure filing in August 2025. States with the worst foreclosure rates were Nevada (one in every 2,069 housing units with a foreclosure filing); South Carolina (one in every 2,152 housing units); Florida (one in every 2,512 housing units).
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Nationwide, one in every 3,987 housing units had a foreclosure filing in August 2025. States with the worst foreclosure rates were Nevada (one in every 2,069 housing units with a foreclosure filing); South Carolina (one in every 2,152 housing units); Florida (one in every 2,512 housing units).

Among the 225 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the worst foreclosure rates in August 2025 were Lakeland, FL (one in every 1,212 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Columbia, SC (one in every 1,347 housing units); Chico, CA (one in every 1,545 housing units); Cleveland, OH (one in every 1,755 housing units); and Ocala, FL (one in every 1,816 housing units).

Those major metropolitan areas with a population greater than 1 million with the worst foreclosure rates in August 2025 besides Cleveland were: Las Vegas, NV (one in every 1,817 housing units); Jacksonville, FL (one in every 2,057 housing units); Houston, TX (one in every 2,195 housing units); and Orlando, FL (one in every 2,210 housing units).

Texas, Florida, and California led the nation in foreclosure starts

Lenders started the foreclosure process on 24,254 U.S. properties in August 2025, down slightly at 0.2 percent from last month but up 16.9 percent from a year ago.

https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/august-2025-foreclosure-market-report/

It's a great time to stay on the sidelines!

Insurance Costs Exploding yet again, almost 12% YoY nationally

September 2025 Mortgage Monitor
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Are up 4.9% in 2025, 11.3% Over Last 12 Months

Average property insurance costs have risen nearly 70% over the past five years, outpacing growth in other mortgage-related expenses

ATLANTA & NEW YORK -- (Sept. 8, 2025) – ICE Mortgage Technology, neutral provider of a robust end-to-end mortgage platform and part of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), today released its September 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report, highlighting the continued surge in property insurance costs and its growing impact on overall mortgage affordability.

The report found that the average annual property insurance payment for single-family mortgage holders has climbed to nearly $2,370 per year, accounting for 9.6% of average monthly mortgage-related expenses when factoring in principal, interest, taxes and insurance (PITI). This marks the highest share on record and underscores the disproportionate role insurance costs are playing in rising homeownership expenses.

“Property insurance costs continue to be the fasted growing subcomponent of mortgage payments among existing homeowners,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “While mortgage principal, interest and property tax payments have all increased in recent years, insurance has far outpaced those gains, rising 4.9% in 2025, 11.3% annually and nearly 70% over the past five and a half years. That rapid escalation now means insurance alone consumes almost one in every ten dollars spent on average mortgage-related costs.”

https://mortgagetech.ice.com/resources/data-reports/september-2025-mortgage-monitor

It's a great time not to buy!

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

It's a great time to stay on the sidelines!

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

It's a great time not to buy!

Default rates are still below what they were pre-pandemic. Eventually over the next few years they should revert to the mean. Don't expect any great rush of people who are forced to sell.

Own or rent, you are gonna end up paying for the increase in insurance costs, unless you're living out of your car.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

It's a great time to stay on the sidelines!

Away from the sidelines more like it. Las Vegas will alway be at the whim the gambling. They got their stadiums for pro sports so construction jobs dried up and legal gambling is everywhere in the country so that tourist economy has taken a hit. I couldn't live there.

Cleveland is a weird one, but the few times I've been, total shit hole vibe. No redeeming qualities. Ohio is a strange state if you haven't been. Not as bad as Memphis, TN but close.

Everything else is on the sidelines as in the coasts. 1-2 hours or less to the beach. FL is obvious as retirees without enough savings finance a home down there. Insurance as you mention. South Carolina is a weird one, but as someone from IL and having Boomer family and friends it's a popular spot to buy, so probably inflated. And the random hurricane or flooding chance with insurance.

California is obviously inflated. I don't know when that house of cards comes down. Trump seems to be backpedaling on the H1-B thing.

Surprised Denver or Phoenix weren't in there.

Misc says

Don't expect any great rush of people who are forced to sell.

Average Boomer is 70 and they own ~60% of Residential R/E by value.

Inevitable Demographics, unless the Eagles and Santana and Billy Joel unleash miracle healing powers via speaker.

Nothing the Fed or Government can do to stop it.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Misc says

Don't expect any great rush of people who are forced to sell.

Boomers are 70 and don't own 70% of Residential R/E by value.

Inevitable Demographics, unless the Eagles and Santana and Billy Joel unleash healing powers via speaker.

And what does that mean?

GNL says

And what does that mean?

That means that in about 10 years, at least 35-40% of those now about age 70 will not be with us anymore and probably another 10-20% will be unable to executive enough of their ADLs (Activities of Daily Living: Cleaning, Cooking, Walking up/down Stairs to Basement Laundry or 2nd Floor Bedroom, etc.) to the point they will need some help or downsize.

It means they will be forced to change their living arrangements.



https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2025/

Singing "I will get by" won't stop the Circle of Life.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzvk0fWtCs0

How many are aged 70 and how many are in their homebuying years?

GNL says

How many are aged 70 and how many are in their homebuying years?

Or, who is going to buy their houses when they need to downsize, pay for assisted living, or pass on?

What happens when a million or so extra houses hit the market every year?

First half of Boomers are already in their 70s.
Gen Jones/Second half of Boomers are in their 60s.

The early 60s was a baby bust. The peak Boomer birth year is 1957 with 1955 being the average birth year (by age) of living Boomers.

Pretty much all Boomers except for the much smaller early 60s segment are now eligible for social security and most for Medicare.



Here are the number of persons born and alive in 2020:


In about 15-20 years, we'll have about half as many Boomers as we do today. IF they are as healthy as Silents, which is in question due to a drop in longevity due to higher rates of addiction and rise in obesity (in both sexes) vs. that cohort.

The annual mortality rate after age 65 is approximately 2%. After 75 it's 5%.

If we go by the median Boomer being about 70 years old in 2025, we will lose about 10% of all Boomers by 2030 and 30% by 2035.

That's not including house sales due to ADL downsizing or health cost coverage or transfer/moving in to relatives due to illness, just death.

I'm guessing about a quarter million excess homes going on market each year until 2030, when it will increase to about half a million.

Don't buy residential real estate now, esp. in the Sunbelt.

I dunno..historically the US has had about 5.5 million existing homes sell per year. For this year and last it has come in at about 4.5 million, so there's some room for extra sales. With the number of deaths to increase by about 3 million per year (the Boomer effect), that accounts for the missing 1 million units right there. That's also assuming that new builds equals those that are destroyed/abandoned/become uninhabitable.

Over the last 15 years or so, the occupancy rate per dwelling has been going up quite a bit. The mass media has been Doom saying generation Z's financial picture, and while a lot of it is true, that generation has the highest amount of financial assets for their age of any preceding generation. Their wages aren't bad,, the States are kicking in an average of $10k for new home buyers, and for about 1/2 of them their parents are kicking in some down payment assistance too.
Given the supply/demand dynamics..if interest rate spreads just go back to where they have historically been, I don't see any huge price decreases on a National basis.

Overall. I'd say it's too soon to tell.

I think GenZ is going to get the deal of a century if they wait to about 30-35 to buy their first home.

Millies that aren't on the shitjob wheel already brought a house, will mostly rent or sell the one they inherit (which will glut both the rental and buying market further). Why would they move from their high income NY, CA, IL, MN job to take a bigass pay cut in most of the Sunbelt? The Sunbelt is no longer the bargain it used to be, so it's not mitigated by the lower cost-of-living anymore much except for places like Arkansas.

GenX owns property already.

Who will buy?

In 2035 there will be roughly 3 adults for every person over 65. Again, Boomers own over half the residential real estate in the USA.

Rates won't change a thing. We had low rates for the 2010s and prices didn't rise much, almost all the explosion in house costs was due to COVID and COVIDflation. We had high rates in the 80s and people brought homes like crazy. The fundamental issue is the used house price being too high for incomes.

The reason for the delay in market price discovery is that too many are banking on getting their COVID peak house price. Homeloaners are "Sticky Upwards" in their perception of home value.

It's not the ~$300/month difference on $300k on 6.2% vs. 4.5%. It's that you can rent the same thing for the same or cheaper and not be responsible for roofs, HVAC, gutters, etc. And the higher the fundamental price, the higher the insurance and property tax which are tied to the price, not tied to the rate. For houses brought pre-COVID, buyers at the current price are going to get shlonged for more than $300 in the difference in homeowners and taxes between the seller's carrying cost and the purchase price.

If an area is supply constrained, the actual cost of building a new house (less builder profit) will be the benchmark for $/sqft for existing houses. Some adjustments down to be made for quality of construction/energy efficiency/amenities, but that’s going to be the basis. If you can’t build it for $150/SF, and it’s $180/SF, what rate the mortgage market is currently at isn’t going to mean shit WRT ultimate cost/sale price.

ForcedTQ says

If an area is supply constrained, the actual cost of building a new house (less builder profit) will be the benchmark for $/sqft for existing houses.

Correct. In an area where the growing population is mid to low income, those building costs mean the new neighborhoods will be cluster homes.

https://fortune.com/2025/09/24/housing-costs-so-high-gen-z-millennials-sacrifices-delayed-milestones/

Housing costs are so high some Americans are delaying milestones like getting married, having kids and even adopting a pet

I wonder what this chart looks like in $/SF…

zzyzzx says

One of the lowest quality builders in the nation. The peak is people building and then finding out they got a lemon. They're shit houses. I could see the gossip getting out and no one wanting to buy them in higher markets.

Around my parts they are being sold though at a fast pace. But that's likely what is dragging down selling price. They getting into lower COLA's so the land is cheaper and can still turn a profit on people with $100k family income with $350-425k prices. They doing pre-fab framing so they only need to send a few carpenters to put up a two story house in days. Basically the labor costs are pretty low and the contractors will take any work they can get.

Builder homes are now 4% cheaper than Used Houses nationally. This has never been seen before, not even during the GFC.

Investors are also getting smart.

Homeloaners, not so much.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Builder homes are now 4% cheaper than Used Houses nationally. This has never been seen before, not even during the GFC.

No one is moving with locked in low interest rates on the used homes, so builders have to compete price wise and with rate buy downs, which is a write off for them. Land is still relatively cheap though in most places. Low margins, but if you can bring in $10-20k/house after ALL expenses including all employees, you do it.

My little town Lennar will make $1M at least after CEO pay, employees and contractors. Multiply that by just 50 in the state of IL. Just here they'll make $50-100M over the next two years on low margins.

If Trump gets rates to drop then the builders can remove the interest rate buy downs. I actually like where rates are personally. I think we need a generally sideways track for a while. Some will lose and some will win. But nationally this is not 2007-08.

WookieMan says

No one is moving with locked in low interest rates on the used homes, so builders have to compete price wise and with rate buy downs, which is a write off for them. Land is still relatively cheap though in most places. Low margins, but if you can bring in $10-20k/house after ALL expenses including all employees, you do it.

Homeloaners can't offer ~5% teaser rates, generally don't offer choice of all-new installed flooring and paint, generally don't include all-new appliances, nor offer a whole-house warranty.

What homeloaners can do is cut their asking price very strongly and stop fighting price discovery.

I think the Boomers still have a HUGE impact on prices. We'll have to wait until they're exhausted. I don't know.

Ed Dowd says we're headed for a housing letdown. I don't think I've heard him use the word crash...yet.

I remember when the Japanese Bubble hit Peak Retard when a square meter of the Imperial Grounds was valued more than the entirety of NYC. That was sometime in the 90s.

Extreme example? Only could happen in Japan and in that particular era? Perhaps.

But this below. It's pretty close to it, America-style. And the Housing Experts of PatNet will try to spin it like they always have. Just watch...



Looky! A Hipster Coastal City...NOT!

MolotovCocktail says

I remember when the Japanese Bubble hit Peak Retard when a square meter of the Imperial Grounds was valued more than the entirety of NYC. That was sometime in the 90s.

Extreme example? Only could happen in Japan and in that particular era? Perhaps.

But this below. It's pretty close to it, America-style. And the Housing Experts of PatNet will try to spin it like they always have. Just watch...



Looky! A Hipster Coastal City...NOT!

I guess each of the two bedrooms are about 150 square feet each, and the kitchen/dining area/living room are 300 square feet.

MolotovCocktail says

Looky! A Hipster Coastal City...NOT!

It's a 5 hour drive to East Beach Galveston. There's also Lavon lake a very short drive. Commute to Dallas or its nearby suburbs.

Those tiny houses are fine as at most you'd have a girl friend or buddy living there and you don't have to share a wall with a neighbor like a townhome. And you can also own your own home. These tiny homes are about as hipster as you can get. As mentioned 5 hours to the beach. This would check both the boxes I've made clear in other posts. It's a place for 22-32 year old people.

Princeton is a city in Collin County, Texas, United States. The population was 17,027 at the 2020 census, and was estimated to be 37,019 in 2024. Princeton, Texas, as of 2025, is currently the fastest-growing city in the United States. Wikipedia

20,000 people in 4 years..... totally not hipster.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/19/condo-prices-dropped-by-12-27-in-these-25-bigger-cities-through-august-condo-bust-update/

Condo prices in Killeen, TX, a little over an hour north of Austin, have collapsed by 40% since the peak in mid-2022 and have given up the entire 52% spike from mid-2020 to mid-2022, plus some. The spike had been driven by FOMO-madness and the Fed’s Free Money policies. This is one of the fastest-growing cities around; its population has surged by 35% in the past 15 years to 160,000 in 2024.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/sauve-qui-peut

Real estate here in Idaho ballooned too much, I’m thinking of moving again to a cheaper state.

Wanted to buy some land to open up shop… commercial lots go for 900k here, screw that i don’t even get who would pay that. Used to be 100k, missed my boat I guess. I dont see how it’s even possible to make money with costs so high.

Fortwaye says

’m thinking of moving again to a cheaper state.

What mythical cheaper state? it's expensive everywhere now. Or are you really considering relocating to West Virginia, or something?

zzyzzx says

Fortwaye says

’m thinking of moving again to a cheaper state.

What mythical cheaper state? it's expensive everywhere now. Or are you really considering relocating to West Virginia, or something?

Look on Zillow. Move to home with "cheap price" like near Toledo but check out the very high property tax and state income tax. Oklahoma and northern Arkansas is reasonable also for cost of living.

What I don't understand about this Doral, Florida (Miami-Dade county) article (see link below) is why are the immigrants leaving hastily if they are established ? Would they not have at least green card applications that are being processed ?

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/miami-suburbs-once-vibrant-housing-scene-is-hit-by-exodus-of-migrants-0a2064bf

.

zzyzzx says

Fortwaye says

’m thinking of moving again to a cheaper state.

What mythical cheaper state? it's expensive everywhere now. Or are you really considering relocating to West Virginia, or something?

Carolinas

Fortwaye says

Carolinas

I live in South Carolina. There are quite a few areas near Greenville where home prices are not that bad. Easley, for example.

$450,000, 4bd, 3 ba, 2,310 sq ft
406 Huntington Rd, Easley, SC 29642

https://www.redfin.com/SC/Easley/406-Huntington-Rd-29642/home/60756758

zzyzzx says

What mythical cheaper state? it's expensive everywhere now. Or are you really considering relocating to West Virginia, or something?

Lots of cheap rural homes also in Wookie's state of Illinois as well as in Wisconsin

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/220-2nd-St-Bell-Center-WI-54631/113648066_zpid/

Tennessee (which is/was the new North Carolina) is now having rent and house price declines.

Lots of fun videos about those who brought during the Pandemic flipping out over skyrocketing carrying costs, including those who got 3-4% rates.

Because the difference in rates was more than eaten up by skyrocketing insurance and property taxes and often unforeseen repairs. Used houses, unlike builder homes, don't come with warranties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnCmvpD1gE8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lukq5xmb-xI

Mortgage payments up 90% in the past 5 years but the vast majority of that was the price, not the rate.

The price is too damn high and so are the carrying costs.

Here is another:

$292,500
3bd, 2 ba, 1,538 sq ft
536 Laurel Meadows Pkwy, Greenville, SC 29607

https://www.redfin.com/SC/Greenville/536-Laurel-Meadows-Pkwy-29607/home/91503844

The housing market in Tracy Hills, Tracy, CA, is experiencing a significant downturn, with median listing prices dropping year-over-year and homes selling slower than in the past.
Earlier this year someone bought after the builder (Lennar!) gave 22% discount.
But the area experiencing further decline, so far he lost 18% from his purchase price.
Not sure what factors are causing steep fall now. But I can think of a few. The price went up too fast during scamdamic. Highway 580 is super congested particularly during morning hours. Occasionally hear that it takes 2 to 3 hours to south San Jose one way after 5 days back to office schedule for many businesses.
I suspect that immigrants are not buying any houses particularly who are on immigrant visas and permanent residents. These are the major clients in this area.

If anyone is in the market who wants to settle down around this area can keep an eye for a good deals.

https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/556624/CA/Tracy/Tracy-Hills/housing-market

Quite a few price reductions in Santa Cruz, usually considered an airtight market. Still expensive for Appalachia by the Sea.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Here is another:

$292,500
3bd, 2 ba, 1,538 sq ft
536 Laurel Meadows Pkwy, Greenville, SC 29607

https://www.redfin.com/SC/Greenville/536-Laurel-Meadows-Pkwy-29607/home/91503844

23 year old used house, I estimate at $200k +/- 10% depending on new roof and HVAC

It sold for $149k in 2015 when it was only 13 years old. My bid of $200k is a fair and solid 20-30% appreciation in just a decade: It's about the age for major repairs on the horizon.

I notice Redfin is listing the current property tax on a $153k assessment, rather than on the $292k asking, so that will double. Probably ditto with the homeowner's insurance, which won't be insuring the 2015 price, but the 2025 ask price if it transacts at the ask. Not sure how many young couples without a Bank of Relatives have a $60k downpayment (plus closing costs) to avoid mortgage insurance, get the best rate, etc.

https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1973064429706031342

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Not sure how many young couples without a Bank of Relatives have a $60k downpayment (plus closing costs) to avoid mortgage insurance, get the best rate, etc.

Yup. But hey! Ppl here actually believe the bullshit economic data claiming that incomes rose 20% these past few years. Mean income, sure. Median...my bullshit scent receptors go crazy.