patrick.net

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

nobody wants to catch a falling knife

I see where a couple or someone waits another year think prices will go down another 10%, or they may get enticed to buy based on them seeing very good deals on prices like a 20% discount from 2022 all time high price plus the seller offers to buy up to 4 discount points.

I agree as sellers need to be motivated enough to lower prices (and offer money for buyer to buy discount points) to account for a 6% rate for FHA and VA mortgages.

But its not a deflationary spiral matter where someone holds off on buying a computer at Best Buy since they think its going to drop in price in 30 days. There are a lot of factors as far as home buying versus continuing to rent.

Just around here in Florida panhandle it seems housing sales came to almost a halt since fall of 2022, naturally coinciding to the 30 yr mortgage rate reaching 7%.

Well even BLS complements ADP data on how job hiring slowed starting around February 2022.

Yet all the political chatter was about abortion going into the 2022 midterm election. They ran out of silver bullets for the 2024 election, and a lot seen through the Biden regime's bullshit economic stats.

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Yes, the recession really began earlier, long before the election, even. Doctored numbers, esp. job numbers, going into the election were extra buck wild.

Retail Homesellers will do anything BUT lower prices until urgency overpowers "Sticky Upwards". Retail homesellers are usually a year behind the so-called smart money, Realtors will often repeat NAR propaganda. Interestingly, Builders and big Investors are cutting prices and selling off. The fact that new is selling below used in many markets is a big tell.

Lots of stories in West and Central Florida that Realtors are actually telling sellers the bottom line, and they will NOT list their house unless they have a realistic price (ie big fat price cut from what they thought they'd get). There is a glut of houses now in Clearwater, St. Pete, etc. and starting in Orlando in earnest now too.

Tennessee and other COVID hot states are getting a punch of reality, also.

AD says

No I am not cherry picking.

Buy 4 discounts points lower the FHA mortgage rate from 6% to 5%. That is like lowering the price 10% for the buyer. That is on top of lowering the price 15%.

I know what discounting points is.

What person who needs to get a FHA loan has the $$$ to buy down points?

And your average seller won't do that either. They'll just reduce the price.

So you are cherry-picking scenarios..scenarios that won't happen on Planet Reality for most cases. Oh, I believe they happen with your crowd. But until I see a Zillow price listed like $750k (but seller will buy 4 points!) in the column where prices show up...cherry picking. A bit of "Let them eat cake" too.

AD says

From what I've read, a lot of economists say that housing should bottom around 25% below all time high price set in 2022.

Economists? Hahahaha.

MolotovCocktail says

What person who needs to get a FHA loan has the $$$ to buy down points?

I understand as I am addressing the $240,000 to $310,000 price range for a 3 bedroom, 2 car garage townhome within 2 miles of white sands beaches in Florida panhandle.

And as I said, this year marks a second year that property insurance prices are going down in Florida such as with Ovation Insurance.

And property taxes still are the same for las 4 years in Panama City Florida metro area, as well as my HOA charging the same HOA assessment in 2026 as they did in 2022.
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The Panhandle seems 'invisible' from most of the Florida R/E Collapse Chatter, but from what I gather it was the least crazy of all Florida regions during the Pandemic, so therefore will have the weakest correction.

RENT GROWTH - and now I am speaking generally about everywhere but the Northeast and Midwest - has declined. Expected less than 1% next year, and in the hot Pandemic Markets - Austin, Nashville, Orlando - they've dropped. In Austin almost 20%, approaching pre-pandemic levels.

Not factored in that, and one of the tricks of property managers, is "comps". Because of the massive multifamily building binge starting Obama's awful 2nd term, there is a huge supply of apartments. To fill them, and keep the vacancy rate looking nice for investment pamphlets, managers are offering free months (plural) including now in Tennessee and long since the norm in parts of Texas and Florida, over a year now. This does not change the asking price, so it conceals what may be a rental drop in some areas as a mere weakening in growth. Even though of course it impacts the bottom line.

Other COVID era norms, like big fat one and a half months security, or first and last, has completely disappeared from Florida, at least from properties not for the ultrawealthy. Security deposits are now $300-500, sometimes waved for great credit applicants, and it's just the first month - with lots of comps offered.

(TL;DR: Instead of cutting rents, they offer free months, which amounts to de facto rental price cuts)

Rents are a major player when pricing houses. Strong rent price growth appeals to investors, big and small, and justifies paying high prices for investment properties, be they condos or SFH.

If rents fail to grow as predicted, investors don't want to pay the carrying costs and do the work, since the ROI is not what was expected.

According to some pundits I've heard (and I do so in the commute so I can't link, sadly), the Pro Investors are made at "Inadvertent Renters". These would be the Northern/Midwesterners who came down South to live and escape Lockdowns during the COVID era, but are now unable to get the price they want after paying a premium and making repairs/upgrades, so they are renting them, cutting into the Pro Investor's anticipated rental returns.

Finally AirBNB/VRBO are not doing great as municipalities continue to crack down on them, their value is now questioned vs. 3-stars especially for shorter trips, taxes and registration fees and regulations increase for them, etc. So we have former many former Short Term Rentals entering the market either as property to sell or as long term rentals.

AD says

MolotovCocktail says

What person who needs to get a FHA loan has the $$$ to buy down points?

I understand as I am addressing the $240,000 to $310,000 price range for a 3 bedroom, 2 car garage townhome within 2 miles of white sands beaches in Florida panhandle.

And as I said, this year marks a second year that property insurance prices are going down in Florida such as with Ovation Insurance.

And property taxes still are the same for las 4 years in Panama City Florida metro area, as well as my HOA charging the same HOA assessment in 2026 as they did in 2022.
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That has nothing to do with buying points on a mortgage.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

MolotovCocktail says

What person who needs to get a FHA loan has the $$$ to buy down points?

I understand as I am addressing the $240,000 to $310,000 price range for a 3 bedroom, 2 car garage townhome within 2 miles of white sands beaches in Florida panhandle.

And as I said, this year marks a second year that property insurance prices are going down in Florida such as with Ovation Insurance.

And property taxes still are the same for las 4 years in Panama City Florida metro area, as well as my HOA charging the same HOA assessment in 2026 as they did in 2022.
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That has nothing to do with buying points on a mortgage.

Yes it does.

I see it firsthand in my townhome HOA as far as sellers offering to buy discount points (up to 4 points to lower the FHA rate from 6% to 5%), and it costs them around 4% of average mortgage balance of $270,000 or $10,800.

The sellers have the cash to offer this.

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AD says

Yes it does.

I see it firsthand in my townhome HOA as far as sellers offering to buy discount points (up to 4 points to lower the FHA rate from 6% to 5%), and it costs them around 4% of average mortgage balance of $270,000 or $10,800.

The sellers have the cash to offer this.

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You went on about property taxes, not this. Go re-read what you wrote. https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2212817

And even so, its anecdotal. And it doesn't show up in listings prices so most buyers wouldn't know about it. And many strapped sellers won't have the cash to do this.

AD says

I see it firsthand in my townhome HOA as far as sellers offering to buy discount points (up to 4 points to lower the FHA rate from 6% to 5%), and it costs them around 4% of average mortgage balance of $270,000 or $10,800.

I can see how paying points rather than dropping price would entice a buyer since lowing the rate from 6% to 5% on $270,000 would save about $170/mo for the buyer while lowering the price to $259,000 would only save about $66/mo. Also, the realtor is happy since the higher price is better for commission and comps.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

Yes it does.

I see it firsthand in my townhome HOA as far as sellers offering to buy discount points (up to 4 points to lower the FHA rate from 6% to 5%), and it costs them around 4% of average mortgage balance of $270,000 or $10,800.

The sellers have the cash to offer this.

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You went on about property taxes, not this. Go re-read what you wrote. https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2212817

And even so, its anecdotal. And it doesn't show up in listings prices so most buyers wouldn't know about it. And many strapped sellers won't have the cash to do this.

The carrying costs like property tax and property insurance were brought up, and I was stating for my research, Florida panhandle is faring well as far as property taxes remaining steady and property insurance dropping.

That is why I presented this info.

And there are many sellers in my townhome HOA and in Florida panhandle that can afford the cash for upfront for buying down up to 4 discount points.

The "cash strapped" sellers likely are underwater and desperate to sell, like they are offering a fire sale.

There are no fire sales that I see in my townhome HOA or in Panama City Beach.
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https://missionlocal.org/2025/09/sf-veritas-foreclosure-652-million-debt/

S.F. housing giant Veritas defaults on $652M debt. 66 buildings now face foreclosure.

1,566 units in five dozen buildings may represent entire San Francisco portfolio of city’s former No. 1 landlord ...

Veritas did not immediately respond to a request for comment. CEO Yat-Pang Au did not respond to a late Wednesday message.

If a sale were to proceed, a buyer would likely purchase the entire tranche of 66 buildings. Tenants would not face eviction, but their landlord would change.

The Veritas loan has an unpaid principal balance of $551 million that first came due in March 2024, according to the notice. Veritas also failed to pay $1.1 million in property taxes, according to the notice. ...

As a landlord, Veritas has long drawn the ire of tenant advocates. Many of its tenants have organized as the Veritas Tenants Association and withheld rent to improve housing conditions. Tenants have alleged harassment and neglect, and sued the company multiple times.

In 2022, its property management subsidiary warned residents in its San Francisco properties that they could be evicted for organizing by distributing “literature” and hanging signs on doors. Earlier this year, tenants who organized a rent strike at one of its buildings were reportedly threatened with eviction.

The Royal Bank of Canada has pursued San Francisco borrowers before. Its RBC Real Estate Capital arm in June 2024 took over 1,200 San Francisco housing units from owners Goldman Sachs and Ballast Investments after they defaulted on $687.5 million in loans.

One bell weather as Invitation Homes is the largest owners of single family rental homes in the USA.

prices down on average 15% for townhomes in Panama City Beach

HeadSet says

AD says

I see it firsthand in my townhome HOA as far as sellers offering to buy discount points (up to 4 points to lower the FHA rate from 6% to 5%), and it costs them around 4% of average mortgage balance of $270,000 or $10,800.

I can see how paying points rather than dropping price would entice a buyer since lowing the rate from 6% to 5% on $270,000 would save about $170/mo for the buyer while lowering the price to $259,000 would only save about $66/mo. Also, the realtor is happy since the higher price is better for commission and comps.

Yes. But HOW does that get communicated in listings to potential buyers and their agents?

You can't filter on price since that won't show 'seller will buy x points!'. In fact, no MLS has that data field, correct? At least not now. I suppose it can be mentioned in the description field.

Say Joe & Jill Sixpack would-be homebuyer get pre-approved for $XXX,XXX amount of a mortgage. Their realtard™ knows this. So any listing more gets filtered out. They never look at that $XXY,XXX house and thus never hear about the seller point discount for it.

Ergo, sellers will feel the need to compete with selling price since that is what is communicated at large to the buyer's market, instead.

It's been a while since I've been involved with an MLS (I used to work for one). So am I right or has things per the above changed?

AD says

One bell weather as Invitation Homes is the largest owners of single family rental homes in the USA.

Builders continue to build at a slower, but still steady pace, and selling BELOW used houses, yet able to perform to a degree that generates investor interest, is a testament somewhat to the health of the market...

... but also how inflated used house prices are. If builders can build new and sell with strong incentives, choice of flooring, all new brand-name appliances included, and teaser rates below what used house owners are asking...

Then price for used houses is set too damn high. Double digit percentages too high, not 5% too high.

Cutting rates 1-2% doesn't make $2200/month instead of $2600/month (plus 100% responsibility for all issues) on a 20-50 year old used house ...

...a better deal for financial health than $1400/month and NO responsibilities for maintenance.

One would be far better off investing the $800 difference - being generous and excluding HVAC repair, worn fixtures, etc. - a month in equities. Especially given that we are almost certainly at a peak. And remembering the same people who "Permanently Plateau'd" in the late 2000s are also claiming that for today with similar affordability and price runup issues.

It's a terrible time to buy!

"The Rise of Accidental Landlords"
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/the-rise-of-the-accidental-landlords-and-what-20783304.php

How COVID-era home buyers, unable to find suckers buyers who will Entitle them to rescue from carrying cost explosions and their sunk upgrades and repair outlay expenses yet current rates but COVID peak prices buy at the price they want, are now folding their arms in fury and waiting... renting out these properties.

The explosion of these 'accidental landlords' plus the completion of millions of multifamily units coming to market, is also killing the ROI for investors, who purchased SFH at low rates, conditional on previous substantial growth estimates for rental prices.

It's now a game of chicken between investors, COVID era buyers, and current potential buyers on who can be the most stubborn and hold out the longest

My money is on the potential buyers. Eventually Bob the Boomer and Melinda the Milennial over-her-head will decide to simply settle for less due to urgency to retire/relocate/divorce/pay other debts.

Paul the Potential Buyer is only looking at declining or at least slowing rents as a renter who kinda wants a house sometime in the next few years.

Not only is Paul not under pressure, but outside the Northeast and pockets of the Midwest, it's flat or declining rents as far as the eye can see.

War between stuck sellers resorting to renting out their property, and big investors seeking rental income.

To the benefit of Renters!

When homeowners can’t find buyers for their properties, they usually have three options: lower the price, remove the listing, or convert the home into a rental. By tracking recent for-sale listings that were converted to rentals, Parcl Labs, a housing data and analytics firm, found that “accidental landlords” — homeowners who chose the last option — were becoming more common, especially in the country’s Sun Belt region.

The “accidental landlord” trend is accelerating, the researchers found, particularly in markets where large institutional investors — businesses that own more than 1,000 single-family homes — hold a substantial chunk of available properties. Since the end of the pandemic, those large investors have flocked to the states lining the bottom of the United States from coast to coast, chasing job and population growth. But surging inventory and a declining number of buyers have given rise to a competitive crop of former sellers who are now “accidental landlords.” Most are individual owners competing with those large institutional investors in the rental market.

Six Sun Belt markets — Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa, Fla., Atlanta and Charlotte, N.C. — contain 37 percent of large institutional real estate nationwide, according to Parcl Labs. Accidental landlords have increased in five out of the six cities.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/realestate/sellers-buyers-landlords.html

MolotovCocktail says

Yes. But HOW does that get communicated in listings to potential buyers and their agents?

Emphasize it in the listing like in the Zillow description for the home, and get the word passed to the buyers agents.

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AD says

Emphasize it in the listing like in the Zillow description for the home, and get the word passed to the buyers agents.

That's a shitty way of doing it if the agent filters out houses by listing prices their client can't afford.

MolotovCocktail says

Yes. But HOW does that get communicated in listings to potential buyers and their agents?

I do not know how it is communicated, but I do remember the "3-2-1 buydown" that was popular in the 80s when interests rates were as high as 20%. Somehow the work got out.

MolotovCocktail says

Say Joe & Jill Sixpack would-be homebuyer get pre-approved for $XXX,XXX amount of a mortgage. Their realtard™ knows this. So any listing more gets filtered out.

Unless the realtard™ filters by price the buyers could afford if the rate was at the buydown amount.

HeadSet says

MolotovCocktail says

Yes. But HOW does that get communicated in listings to potential buyers and their agents?

I do not know how it is communicated, but I do remember the "3-2-1 buydown" that was popular in the 80s when interests rates were as high as 20%. Somehow the work got out.

MolotovCocktail says

Say Joe & Jill Sixpack would-be homebuyer get pre-approved for $XXX,XXX amount of a mortgage. Their realtard™ knows this. So any listing more gets filtered out.

Unless the realtard™ filters by price the buyers could afford if the rate was at the buydown amount.

Yes. The realtard™ filters by price, of course.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

Emphasize it in the listing like in the Zillow description for the home, and get the word passed to the buyers agents.

That's a shitty way of doing it if the agent filters out houses by listing prices their client can't afford.

The sellers agent tells the buyer agents about this, as they market the home with that offer to buy up to 4 discount points.

Also most buyers will look within Zillow at the other listings in the townhome HOA and will see in all capital letters about the incentive to buy up to 4 discount points. I know from talking with buyer agents that this is common behavior for buyers to check Zillow.

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AD says

The sellers agent tells the buyer agents about this, as they market the home with that offer to buy up to 4 discount points.

The seller agent the buyer agent never contacts in the first place because the property is filtered out in the listing search to begin with?

What is so difficult about this to understand?

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

The sellers agent tells the buyer agents about this, as they market the home with that offer to buy up to 4 discount points.

The seller agent the buyer agent never contacts in the first place because the property is filtered out in the listing search to begin with?

What is so difficult about this to understand?

What you continue to not recognize is I go with a local large real estate company like Counts which has a lot of buyer agents.

My sellers agent contacts his friends in Counts who are buyer agents representing buyers and tells them about a townhome sale that is offering up to 4 discount points.

I know this because my wife's friend who has been a real estate agent for at least 25 years told us that is how it works in the Florida panhandle.

And what you also seem to not recognize is most of the buyers I've spoken with in our townhome HOA told me they used Zillow as a way to look at properties they are interested in, and did not get spoon fed by their buyers agent.
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AD says

What you continue to not recognize is I go with a local large real estate company like Counts which has a lot of buyer agents.

My sellers agent contacts his friends in Counts who are buyer agents representing buyers and tells them about a townhome sale that is offering up to 4 discount points.

I know this because my wife's friend who has been a real estate agent for at least 25 years told us that is how it works in the Florida panhandle.

And what you also seem to not recognize is most of the buyers I've spoken with in our townhome HOA told me they used Zillow as a way to look at properties they are interested in, and did not get spoon fed by their buyers agent.

What you don't understand:

1) Your story is anecdotal. Fine for you but in no way addresses the points I have made for everyone else in the aggregate. Big clue for you: Rest of the country isn't the Florida panhandle. You are like Someone-else-on-PatNet-I-don't-care-to-start-another-thread-rage-right-now in this way.

2) As a client, I don't want to be limited to one subset of properties no matter how large the firm is. Maybe that is just me. Seems you prove that point in ppl looking on Zillow, too.

Speaking of Zillow:

3) Zillow doesn't show that data unless its in the Description. And even there, it won't be put on uniformy so as to be reliably searchable. Use of 'Points' vs 'pts' for example. You and are smart enough to think.to filter for both, but is your avg Joe Sixpac?

No matter what, it's a shitty & unreliable way for price discovery to happen.

Plus, it is only good for sellers who have the cash.

A lot won't. Esp not after they have to put $$$ in for upgrades.

Am I correct in assuming that unless the seller has cash to put into escrow first for the points to be bought down on the mortgage when or right after the loan is finalized, it can't hapoen. Because the mortgage lender can't apply the points after the mortgage is finalized from the proceeds of the sale? A timing thing in what happens when, basically.

Or can they do that? If so, then point discounting can certainly be something all sellers would be able to do. That would be cool.

MolotovCocktail says

1) Your story is anecdotal. Fine for you but in no way addresses the points I have made for everyone else in the aggregate. Big clue for you: Rest of the country isn't the Florida panhandle. You are like Someone-else-on-PatNet-I-don't-care-to-start-another-thread-rage-right-now in this way.

I just give a shit about the best place on Earth which is the Florida panhandle.

I am telling you boy, that I have done the same as other buyers in my townhome HOA as far as look at listings on Zillow and read the descriptions like what incentives are offered like seller to offer money to buy mortgage points, etc.

You telling me that only the Florida panhandle has sophisticated buyers like those who will read the descriptions in the Zillow listings ?

Good question:

AD says

I just give a shit about the best place on Earth which is the Florida panhandle.

So fucking what. Non-sequitor. Save it for your next Comerce Circle Jerk mtg.

AD says

that I have done the same as other buyers in my townhome HOA as far as look at listings on Zillow and read the descriptions like what incentives are offered like seller to offer money to buy mortgage points, etc.

THAT'S YOU. And good for you.

AD says

You telling me that only the Florida panhandle has sophisticated buyers like those who will read the descriptions in the Zillow listings ?

Nope. Because not even in the Florida is your average buyer 'sophisticated'.

You seem to think what goes on in your little world is indicative of the rest of it.

Your avg buyer and one who searches for shit online is definitely not sophisticated as you think.

And even if they were, your avg seller doesn't have the fucking money to pony up for this, either.

If you think otherwise to any of that, this is for you:

MolotovCocktail says

Nope. Because not even in the Florida is your average buyer 'sophisticated'.

How the fuck do you know ? You live in the Democrat shithole California.

MolotovCocktail says

And even if they were, your avg seller doesn't have the fucking money to pony up for this, either.

Points are generally a home builder thing. It's of no benefit to get a higher price for the seller of a used home, they just want their equity out of the home. A lower price will sell it quicker and likely for more than doing the points because more people will see the home in their search.

A home builder or developer can write it off as an expense if they offer points. That way the prices look higher than they really are. One sale at say $250k leads to the next one being $255k, then $260k even though it cost the same to build. Used homes there's no reason to keep prices inflated unless it's in a very active HOA that wants to keep prices high. Which is fine, but it is rare in most locations.

Also most Realtors want sales as even an above average one is getting 6-8 sales a year. In high priced markets you might make $60-100k net with brokerage split. Basically most brokers don't do much business and likely have no clue about points. A sale equals lower price and more eyes on it. That's how my office got through the crash. Short sales. The seller and our office didn't give a shit about prices. We'd show up at the BPO with our own comps and hand them to them. Most would take them and put the contract price in that we had.

$50k less than list is money left on the table for sure for a broker. No sale is $0 plus costs to the broker. Put this way it's pointless for them to play with points. Again lower price equals more eyes on your property and a higher chance of a sale.

AD says

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/29/the-lock-in-effect-and-mortgage-rates-update-on-unwinding-a-phenomenon-that-wrecked-the-housing-market/

The only way out of this trap is to lower the price of homes, which lowers the underlying price assessment for insurance and property taxes.

Looks like about 70% of mortgages are no more than at an interest rate of 5%.

Prices now down around 15% from all time high price set in early 2022 in Panama City Beach.
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Interesting article about the impact of low interest rates on the housing market dynamics.

https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/housings-deep-freeze-existing-home-sales-at-25-year-lows/

AD says

MolotovCocktail says

Nope. Because not even in the Florida is your average buyer 'sophisticated'.

How the fuck do you know ? You live in the Democrat shithole California.

Logic. Which you seem to refuse to engage in just to continue living in your Marie Antionette bubble.

You refusal to acknowledge that your typical house hunter doesn't even know wtf a point even is and that your typical seller has the money to offer to do that is your undoing.

You see l, there's this whole world outside of your Florida Circle Jerk Zone.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Vegas is based on employment. They have low employment because of online gaming, sports betting and slot machines in every gas station across the country. Vegas tourism is dead currently. Unless they cut room rates back to 90's and early 2000's rates no one is going there or gambling except poor white people thinking going to Vegas would be fun. It's a dead city. So it's no surprise values are down. Actually surprised it's not more on the downswing.

For the last 3.5 years people have been braying about how now is a terrible time to buy a house. They use all kinds of historical measures to persuade people not to buy. The market sentiment in the residential real estate market is low. Prices nationwide have dropped a whole 1% from the peak, which occurred this summer. Residential real estate does not exist in a vacuum. Sentiment can change and change rapidly.

There are only about 2 million houses up for sale. With an average price of $430k, it puts the value up for sale at about $86 billion. The stock market is up about 15% this year or about $8 trillion. So, if about 1% of the stock market's gain were to look for diversification into another asset like residential real estate...well all that inventory is simply gone in the blink of an eye.

Yes, the stock market is waaaaaaay over valued and money managers are looking anywhere to put their coin.

Again sentiment can change on a dime.

Realtors (I’m in the DMV) are starting to tell me the market is turning. Lots of price drops.

https://reventureapp.blog/us-housing-bubble-2025-bigger-than-2006/

WookieMan says

Actually surprised it's not more on the downswing.

Agreed. And deportation of illegals is going to hit cities like Vegas hard.

Isn't this fraud?