patrick.net

zzyzzx says

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/home-sellers-delisting-redfin.html

Real Estate Sellers are taking their homes off the market at the fastest pace in nearly a decade

Sellers are delisting because so many listings are going stale, sitting on the market longer and longer. Redfin reported that 70% of listings in September were on the market for 60 days or longer.

Homeowners are seeing prices weaken significantly and would rather wait than accept a low offer.

mell says

There is zero indication of any crash, just an underperforming housing market

More denial. And not just here on PatNet!

Another sign that Peak House Pricing Bullshit has arrived:

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

Patrick says

Literally zero?

Yes. From Ford for an F150 I bought.

Same dealership has a 5 year no interest loan available now too.

It was probably available when I bought but I didn't really care, I was willing to pay cash with bitcoin profits.

Normally I wouldn't tell that to a dealership but that place truly sells in volume. They picked me up in a shuttle from the hotel i stayed at after flying in.

No sense in paying it off all at once now, but if rental properties were cheaper I would have because too much debt makes the mortgage shittier.

Granger Ford in Des Moines, IA

zzyzzx says

, they often sit unsold for months, forcing sellers to eventually cut prices.

Overpriced listings can turn off buyers, who may assume something is wrong with the property.

When i sold my maui condo a year ago November it sold in under 10 days. During negotiations I dropped the price from 700K to 695K.

According to zillow/redfin the value has dropped about 55K since then.

It was valued about 150K more than I sold it a few months prior, until the commie mayor started flapping his lips about taking away our property rights, due to the Lahaina fire.

I guess I got out while the gitten was good on hindsight.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

zzyzzx says

, they often sit unsold for months, forcing sellers to eventually cut prices.

Overpriced listings can turn off buyers, who may assume something is wrong with the property.

When i sold my maui condo a year ago November it sold in under 10 days. During negotiations I dropped the price from 700K to 695K.

According to zillow/redfin the value has dropped about 55K since then.

It was valued about 150K more than I sold it a few months prior, until the commie mayor started flapping his lips about taking away our property rights, due to the Lahaina fire.

I guess I got out while the gitten was good on hindsight.

That was likely a very good sale, but even 55k are less than 10% reduction after many years of appreciation. There is no crash, just a correction to saner pricing amid higher interest rates

“When i sold my maui condo a year ago ”

Just curious - what were your HOA fees? I’ve seen $2,000/month in Kauai. That’s almost like renting your own condo unit.

mell says

That was likely a very good sale, but even 55k are less than 10% reduction after many years of appreciation. There is no crash, just a correction to saner pricing amid higher interest rates

I picked it up for 485K and it generated a lot of VRBO revenue until the end when the governor was scaring away tourists and taxes and risen quite a bit (passed on the guests but that's how you get less guests)

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Just curious - what were your HOA fees? I’ve seen $2,000/month in Kauai. That’s almost like renting your own condo unit.

Started out high 700s/month and went up to high 800s/month. It was about 15 steps to the water and the salt air required lots and lots of maintenance that was expensive. It was a small one bedroom but a ground floor unobstructed view - West Maui has the best view anywhere in Hawaii.

Five years in we had a breach under our seawall and some sink holes. We were able to fix it well but were the last building in Maui allowed to do so. Now it's illegal to fix your seawall and all of the condos on the coast of West Maui are going into the ocean over the next 20-30 years. That's another reason I sold.

The plan is to grow Marijuana where the condos were, force the rental car companies off of the island, only allow high $ visitors to take shuttles to the hotels so they stay on hotel grounds.

Yes, the hotels are in bed with the govt there and always trying to make it harder for the small guy to compete. I won't even get into that but lets just say they are allowed to fix their seawalls lol...

It was a lot of fun while it lasted. I can work remotely so it was a quickish trip to get there from San Diego, work for a week or two then go home.

Our wall was set back 20ft or so vs. the neighbors on both sides so often we had a little private beach, one of the few in West Maui. Depending on the tides the sand would rise and fall about 20ft as well.

Most of West Maui is rocky.

Ours and buildings in the area were built for short term vacation rentals back in the early 70s. There is not much storage. You can't live in them long term really. Definitely no room for families unless you consider the penthouse top level floors (3-4th floors).

Generated a LOT of revenue. That seawall assessment was 25K and was super easy to float. I was raising prices every year after I got my review count up (and kept at 5-stars) so I really didn't even notice that loss year over year.

VRBO is nothing like Air BNB. You don't get the riff raff for the most part. About 1-2% of guests were shitty. Mostly happy people super excited to be in Hawaii.

One thing about that Lahaina fire: It became super hard to get labor to fix things from San Diego. Not because they jacked up rates, they didn't, it's just that almost all of those people left.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

zzyzzx says

, they often sit unsold for months, forcing sellers to eventually cut prices.

Overpriced listings can turn off buyers, who may assume something is wrong with the property.

When i sold my maui condo a year ago November it sold in under 10 days. During negotiations I dropped the price from 700K to 695K.

According to zillow/redfin the value has dropped about 55K since then.

It was valued about 150K more than I sold it a few months prior, until the commie mayor started flapping his lips about taking away our property rights, due to the Lahaina fire.

I guess I got out while the gitten was good on hindsight.

It was valued at $850k when you sold at $695k?

Glock-n-Load says

It was valued at $850k when you sold at $695k?

It was, a few months before I sold, but by the time I sold it was closer to 700K. People who were holding out for higher prices were languishing on the market and continued after I sold.

That's what I originally responded to: House owners that still think they'll get covid market peak on their houses.

That area has continued to drop as well to this day. I sold 13 months ago, this claims prices will go up but they always say that:



As I mentioned above, mine has dropped about 55K over the past 13 months, since I sold it.

Glock-n-Load says

It was valued at $850k when you sold at $695k?

https://mauinow.com/2024/07/24/maui-planning-commission-advances-vacation-rental-phase-out-bill/

That was why it dropped $150K so quickly. Those "apartment's" aren't like what you'd consider an apartment on the mainland. They were built for short term vacation rentals in the 70s. It explains that in the original AOAO (association of apartment owners; aka HOA) docs. We even have early 70s post cards describing that. Waaay before VRBO/Air BNB was a pipe dream.

Ultimately, the people who own those will win in court and prices will go back up (takings clause in constitution, or the state will buy them) but it'll be a long slog for a few years that I just didn't want to deal with. There is also no certainty that the govt won't continue to make thing difficult but forcing the rental car industry off of the island / reducing tourism in general. For sure you can't even do maintenance on your seawall anymore for 'environmental reasons', so it doesn't make sense to hold those properties unless you're a very old boomer living there.

I was the only Gen-X owner, everyone else was a boomer or older. The last couple of years some of the other owners started to croak. I was one of a few doing my own management/marketing. Most of them were getting ripped off by 'the rental pool', some property management company that took 30% and was too lazy to re-price based on seasonal or holiday demand.

I stayed open during covid as another example where the rental pool shut down. Pissed off a lot of people lol... The governor's decree didn't mean shit to me.

Oh, a more recent article saying the ban has cracked wide open: https://beatofhawaii.com/mauis-vacation-rental-ban-just-cracked-wide-open/

I knew it would...

Now owner is going to lease long term for 2K / month when they need 5K / month to float the place (with no mortgage) and with laws where Hawaiians can move in, not pay rent, trash the place and you can't evict them.

They aren't big enough for long term anyway... The small guys like me generate the most tax revenue by far to the island as well (alone; not to mention the other spending like restaurants etc.,.), which is out of $. But a bunch of woke fuckers are running the place so I expect more carnage.

mell says

That was likely a very good sale, but even 55k are less than 10% reduction after many years of appreciation. There is no crash, just a correction to saner pricing amid higher interest rates

Gotta build for a correction. Seeing a bit of it here in IL. But Boomers have to move, they're not or already have and others are locked into low interest rates.

Austin, parts of FL, Nashville, and coastal areas will feel the brunt. But it won't be that bad. Everyone is hyper focused on national median. High priced homes falling in value spell doom and gloom. That's false.

WookieMan says

mell says

That was likely a very good sale, but even 55k are less than 10% reduction after many years of appreciation. There is no crash, just a correction to saner pricing amid higher interest rates

Gotta build for a correction. Seeing a bit of it here in IL. But Boomers have to move, they're not or already have and others are locked into low interest rates.

Austin, parts of FL, Nashville, and coastal areas will feel the brunt. But it won't be that bad. Everyone is hyper focused on national median. High priced homes falling in value spell doom and gloom. That's false.

Even the coasts will stabilize. The fat years of housing appreciation are over due to shifting demographics and less immigrants, but it will likely appreciate in the low single digits over the next few years, underperforming inflation and other assets. Those who think a crash is imminent are delusional, for a crash we either need severe mortgage fraud like in 2007, interest rates double from here or a severe recession with plenty job losses. None of this is anywhere in sight. Builders are tepidly building due to stubborn high labor and material costs.

As far as housing demographics, young people forgo homeownership to invest in the stock market

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/29/stocks-retirement-gen-z

Young Americans are increasingly planning for retirement by investing in the stock market while putting off homeownership.

Why it matters: For decades, owning a home has helped Americans build their nest eggs. A generation putting all its eggs into stocks without having weathered a prolonged market slump may be in for a surprise.

What they're saying: The meme stock craze of 2020 caused a "generational shift in how people think about building wealth," Kevin Gordon, macro strategist at Charles Schwab, tells Axios.

That means stocks, but Gen Z hasn't experienced a "protracted and more painful bear market" like older investors have, he says.
"It's not the norm to see a 20% drop and then a record climb back to all-time highs," he notes, referring to what happened in April.
That rebound might have given younger investors the takeaway that "buying the dip" almost always pays and carries little risk.
By the numbers: Retail trading activity has doubled since 2010, making up about a quarter of daily trading volume.

About a third of 25-year-olds have investment accounts today, a sixfold increase from a decade ago.
Financial assets and investments are "taking a bigger share" of the wealth picture for young people, George Eckerd, research director at JPMorgan Chase Institute, tells Axios.
Zoom out: The shift away from homeownership, especially among young and lower-income Americans, could widen the wealth gap, says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

By the numbers: While stocks can be volatile, housing values have remained consistently strong, outside of the global financial crisis.

Homeownership accounts for nearly half of Americans' wealth, and a home is the average American's most valuable asset.
In 2022, the median net worth of U.S. households rose to $176,500, up from $136,500 in 2019. That increase was driven largely by rising home equity, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
While both stocks and housing can be affected by macro factors, home prices are typically not highly correlated with the stock market.

AD says

While both stocks and housing can be affected by macro factors, home prices are typically not highly correlated with the stock market.

What that Axios clown fails to mention is that you can buy shares or a REIT or two to gain uncorrelated stock gains just as well.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15328777/housing-market-price-correction-prediction.html

The US housing market could face a price correction 'worse than 2008' with prices dropping by half in mere months, a housing analyst has warned.

Melody Wright expressed her fears about plummeting home prices in a recent interview with Adam Taggart on the Thoughtful Money podcast.

The two were discussing a recent Zillow report that found home values are falling for more than half of America, the biggest share since the country was still clawing its way out of the Great Recession.

Data showed that 53 percent of US homes have lost value over the past year, the highest level since 2012, when the housing crash finally hit bottom.

Wright warned that this statistic indicates the housing market is set for a price correction worse than the one in 2008 that burst the housing bubble.

'I think we're going to correct all the way to a point where household median income matches the home price, the median home price,' she said.

'So that is going to be worse than 2008. This could devolve a lot faster than last time.'

I know Adam Taggart from the days when this site was all about the housing bubble.

I'd like prices to fall by 50%, and that would be very good for young families, but I find it hard to believe simply because of the concentrated political power that is determined to keep housing too expensive.

Patrick says

I know Adam Taggart from the days when this site was all about the housing bubble.

I'd like prices to fall by 50%, and that would be very good for young families, but I find it hard to believe simply because of the concentrated political power that is determined to keep housing too expensive.
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Melody Wright interview: https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2226841

stereotomy says

AD says

While both stocks and housing can be affected by macro factors, home prices are typically not highly correlated with the stock market.

What that Axios clown fails to mention is that you can buy shares or a REIT or two to gain uncorrelated stock gains just as well.

Also invest in Jeff Bezos's Arrived.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeff-bezos-backed-platform-now-121603833.html

Patrick says

I'd like prices to fall by 50%, and that would be very good for young families, but I find it hard to believe simply because of the concentrated political power that is determined to keep housing too expensive.

The only tool the national politicians have is creating gov backed 50-100 year loans. Local politicians can keep local prices up with restricting permits and strong zoning rules. Other than that, is market caused like when people will not sell and take the loss while losing a low payment 3% loan.

stereotomy says

What that Axios clown fails to mention is that you can buy shares or a REIT or two to gain uncorrelated stock gains just as well.

Article was funded by the NAR and/or Realtards.

https://www.almanacnews.com/peninsula/2025/11/24/property-values-fall-for-most-bay-area-homeowners-over-past-year/

A majority of U.S. households has seen home values slip over the past year, and the Bay Area is among the regions feeling the sharpest pullback, according to new research from Zillow.

Nationwide, 53% of homes are now worth less than they were one year ago — a jump from just 14% in 2024 — marking the highest share of annual declines since 2012, when the post-recession housing slump was nearing its end.

The slowdown is hitting hardest in parts of the West and South, especially in high-cost metros and regions that saw the fastest pandemic-era growth. In the San Francisco metropolitan area, which includes San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, and San Mateo counties, more than 80% of homes have lost value from last year. In the San Jose Metropolitan area, which includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties, the figure is 78%.

According to the report, average home values have fallen about 15% from their peak in the San Francisco metro area and 10.3% in San Jose — sharper declines than the national average of 10%.

Fellation of realtors follows, but the article started out honestly anyway.

Apartment Rents continue their national decline:


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/02/apartment-rents-vacancies-november.html

Just wait until this time next year, after Powered Up ICE with billions in New Funding goes wild.

Case/Shiller came out last week. It was up a tiny bit from the prior month, which was up a tiny bit from the month before it. The previous 3 months were a tiny bit lower.

I wouldn't read too much into any projections for big moves in the national housing market next year. Fannie/Freddie and Zillow are forecasting a 1.5-1.9% increase in housing values nationwide for 2026.

There just ain't any volume. Less than 1% of residential properties were traded this last year. There's only about 2.1 million houses for sale. At $435k average house price, that's less than $1 trillion available. The stock market went up over $7 trillion this year in comparison.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA