« First « Previous Comments 7,258 - 7,260 of 7,260 Search these comments
7258
Glock-n-Load
2025 Dec 13, 7:27am
So that proves my point. It’s not about the number of existing homes. It’s about the number of existing homes that are available for sale. Maybe I didn’t specify.
I think the tax code is FUBAR. It’s an unfair advantage imo.
I think the tax code is FUBAR. It’s an unfair advantage imo.
7259
WookieMan
2025 Dec 13, 9:39am
WookieMan
2025 Dec 13, 9:39am
AD says
I think any losses by Lennar are more quality driven than market driven. They're already having a ton of warranty issues in my area and it's only an 80 home subdivision. Since it's basically right next door I can see what they're building. It's trash. Word is getting out.
I think that is the bigger problem. Shitty subs do shitty work. Homeowner A tells 50 of his friends he's not thrilled with his house. Those 50 friends then tell 50 of their friends. You now got 2,500 people, likely in or near the area that have a bad feeling about a Lennar home. They're looking for teachers and guys that work for the forest preserve or something, that know nothing about construction to buy them.
The new subdivision near me is priced in the $300-$350k range for base models. We're a 30 minute commute from blue class middle collar jobs for guys that can make $50-60k any direction the eye can see. Women can get some of those same jobs and/or be a teacher or nurse with little work to achieve in hindsight. It's not too hard to have a family making $100k by 25-28. That's who Lennar is looking for. They're not looking for the 40-60yr old established attorney. So they build like shit.
Patrick says
Lennar - if they don’t sell anything in a subdivision, they don’t have to mark to market. It only kicks in if they take a 10% loss on a subdivision
Lennar at its last all time high before the housing bubble burst in 2009 was around $57 a share in August 2005.
Now it is $119 down from its all time high of $173 in 2024.
Its only appreciated about 4.5% annually since August 2005.
I think any losses by Lennar are more quality driven than market driven. They're already having a ton of warranty issues in my area and it's only an 80 home subdivision. Since it's basically right next door I can see what they're building. It's trash. Word is getting out.
I think that is the bigger problem. Shitty subs do shitty work. Homeowner A tells 50 of his friends he's not thrilled with his house. Those 50 friends then tell 50 of their friends. You now got 2,500 people, likely in or near the area that have a bad feeling about a Lennar home. They're looking for teachers and guys that work for the forest preserve or something, that know nothing about construction to buy them.
The new subdivision near me is priced in the $300-$350k range for base models. We're a 30 minute commute from blue class middle collar jobs for guys that can make $50-60k any direction the eye can see. Women can get some of those same jobs and/or be a teacher or nurse with little work to achieve in hindsight. It's not too hard to have a family making $100k by 25-28. That's who Lennar is looking for. They're not looking for the 40-60yr old established attorney. So they build like shit.
7260
FreeAmericanDOP
2025 Dec 13, 9:55am
FreeAmericanDOP
2025 Dec 13, 9:55am
Next year the storm really hits:
* Rents already declining nationally.
* Rents will decline even more as stubborn sellers rent them out rather than settle for non-peak pricing ("Sticky Upwards")
* Declining rents insufficient to pay all/most of holding costs will finally get Primary Homeloaners to throw in the towel
* Deportation will amplify, and HUD/Sec8 paid landlords will also be hit on the lower ends.
* Apartment Complex owners, bigger companies, are already up the creek with vacancies and special free month offers.
* Continuing rate cuts will have little to no impact in reversing the inevitable market price discovery.
* Rents already declining nationally.
* Rents will decline even more as stubborn sellers rent them out rather than settle for non-peak pricing ("Sticky Upwards")
* Declining rents insufficient to pay all/most of holding costs will finally get Primary Homeloaners to throw in the towel
* Deportation will amplify, and HUD/Sec8 paid landlords will also be hit on the lower ends.
* Apartment Complex owners, bigger companies, are already up the creek with vacancies and special free month offers.
* Continuing rate cuts will have little to no impact in reversing the inevitable market price discovery.
« First « Previous Comments 7,258 - 7,260 of 7,260 Search these comments
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.